Reduction in all-cause otitis media-related outpatient visits in children after PCV10 introduction in Brazil.

Few studies have reported the effect of 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) on otitis media (OM) in infants. In particular, no population-based study in upper-middle income countries is available. In 2010, Brazil introduced PCV10 into its routine National Immunization Program using a 3+1 schedule. We measured the impact of PCV10 on all-cause OM in children. An interrupted time-series analysis was conducted in Goiânia/Brazil considering monthly rates (per 100,000) of all-cause OM outpatient visits in children aged 2-23 months. We used case-based data from the Outpatient Visits Information System of the Unified Health System coded for ICD-10 diagnosis for the period of August/2008 to July/2015. As a comparator, we used rates of outpatient visits due to all-other causes. The relative reduction of all-cause OM and all-other causes of outpatient visits were calculated as the difference between the predicted and observed cumulative rates of the PCV10 post-vaccination period. We then subtracted the relative reduction of all-other causes of outpatient visits from all-cause OM to obtain the impact of PCV10 on OM. In total, 6,401 OM outpatient visits were recorded in 4,793 children aged 2-23 months. Of these, 922 (19.2%) children had more than one OM episode. A significant reduction in all-cause OM visits was observed (50.7%; 95%CI: 42.2-59.2%; p = 0.013), while the reduction in visits due to all-other causes was 7.7% (95% CI 0.8-14.7%; p<0.001). The impact of PCV10 on all-cause OM was thus estimated at 43.0% (95%CI 41.4-44.5). This is the first study to show significant PCV10 impact on OM outpatient visits in infants in a developing country. Our findings corroborate the available evidence from developed countries.

Effectiveness of the 10-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine (PCV-10) in Children in Chile: A Nested Case-Control Study Using Nationwide Pneumonia Morbidity and Mortality Surveillance Data.

BACKGROUND: The ten-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) was introduced into the Chilean National Immunization Program (NIP) in January 2011 with a 3+1 schedule (2, 4, 6 and 12 months) without catch-up vaccination. We evaluated the effectiveness of PCV10 on pneumonia morbidity and mortality among infants during the first two years after vaccine introduction. METHODS: This is a population-based nested case-control study using four merged nationwide case-based electronic health data registries: live birth, vaccination, hospitalization and mortality. Children born in 2010 and 2011 were followed from two moths of age for a period of two years. Using four different case definitions of pneumonia hospitalization and/or mortality (all-cause and pneumonia related deaths), all cases and four randomly selected matched controls per case were selected. Controls were matched to cases on analysis time. Vaccination status was then assessed. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was estimated using conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: There were a total of 497,996 children in the 2010 and 2011 Chilean live-birth cohorts. PCV10 VE was 11.2% (95%CI 8.5-13.6) when all pneumonia hospitalizations and deaths were used to define cases. VE increased to 20.7 (95%CI 17.3-23.8) when ICD10 codes used to denote viral pneumonia were excluded from the case definition. VE estimates on pneumonia deaths and all-cause deaths were 71.5 (95%CI 9.0-91.8) and 34.8 (95% CI 23.7-44.4), respectively. CONCLUSION: PCV10 vaccination substantially reduced the number of hospitalizations due to pneumonia and deaths due to pneumonia and to all-causes over this study period. Our findings also reinforce the importance of having quality health information systems for measuring VE.

Lives saved by tuberculosis control and prospects for achieving the 2015 global target for reducing tuberculosis mortality.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether the global target of halving tuberculosis (TB) mortality between 1990 and 2015 can be achieved and to conduct the first global assessment of the lives saved by the DOTS/Stop TB Strategy of the World Health Organization (WHO). METHODS: Mortality from TB since 1990 was estimated for 213 countries using established methods endorsed by WHO. Mortality trends were estimated separately for people with and without human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in accordance with the International classification of diseases. Lives saved by the DOTS/Stop TB Strategy were estimated with respect to the performance of TB control in 1995, the year that DOTS was introduced. FINDINGS: TB mortality among HIV-negative (HIV-) people fell from 30 to 20 per 100,000 population (36%) between 1990 and 2009 and could be halved by 2015. The overall decline (when including HIV-positive [HIV+] people, who comprise 12% of all TB cases) was 19%. Between 1995 and 2009, 49 million TB patients were treated under the DOTS/Stop TB Strategy. This saved 4.6-6.3 million lives, including those of 0.23-0.28 million children and 1.4-1.7 million women of childbearing age. A further 1 million lives could be saved annually by 2015. CONCLUSION: Improvements in TB care and control since 1995 have greatly reduced TB mortality, saved millions of lives and brought within reach the global target of halving TB deaths by 2015 relative to 1990. Intensified efforts to reduce deaths among HIV+ TB cases are needed, especially in sub-Saharan Africa.

Assessing tuberculosis case fatality ratio: a meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Recently, the tuberculosis (TB) Task Force Impact Measurement acknowledged the need to review the assumptions underlying the TB mortality estimates published annually by the World Health Organization (WHO). TB mortality is indirectly measured by multiplying estimated TB incidence with estimated case fatality ratio (CFR). We conducted a meta-analysis to estimate the TB case fatality ratio in TB patients having initiated TB treatment. METHODS: We searched for eligible studies in the PubMed and Embase databases through March 4(th) 2011 and by reference listing of relevant review articles. Main analyses included the estimation of the pooled percentages of: a) TB patients dying due to TB after having initiated TB treatment and b) TB patients dying during TB treatment. Pooled percentages were estimated using random effects regression models on the combined patient population from all studies. MAIN RESULTS: We identified 69 relevant studies of which 22 provided data on mortality due to TB and 59 provided data on mortality during TB treatment. Among HIV infected persons the pooled percentage of TB patients dying due to TB was 9.2% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 3.7%-14.7%) and among HIV uninfected persons 3.0% (95% CI: -1.2%-7.4%) based on the results of eight and three studies respectively providing data for this analyses. The pooled percentage of TB patients dying during TB treatment was 18.8% (95% CI: 14.8%-22.8%) among HIV infected patients and 3.5% (95% CI: 2.0%-4.92%) among HIV uninfected patients based on the results of 27 and 19 studies respectively. CONCLUSION: The results of the literature review are useful in generating prior distributions of CFR in countries with vital registration systems and have contributed towards revised estimates of TB mortality This literature review did not provide us with all data needed for a valid estimation of TB CFR in TB patients initiating TB treatment.

The effect of tuberculosis on mortality in HIV positive people: a meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis is a leading cause of death in people living with HIV (PLWH). We conducted a meta analysis to assess the effect of tuberculosis on mortality in people living with HIV. METHODS: Meta-analysis of cohort studies assessing the effect of tuberculosis on mortality in PLWH. To identify eligible studies we systematically searched electronic databases (until December 2008), performed manual searches of citations from relevant articles, and reviewed conference proceedings. Multivariate hazard ratios (HR) of mortality in PLWH with and without tuberculosis, estimated in individual cohort studies, were pooled using random effect weighting according to "Der Simonian Laird method" if the p-value of the heterogeneity test was <0.05. RESULTS: Fifteen cohort studies were systematically retrieved. Pooled overall analysis of these 15 studies estimating the effect of tuberculosis on mortality in PLWH showed a Hazard Ratio (HR) of 1.8 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.4-2.3). Subanalysis of 8 studies in which the cohort was not exposed to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) showed an HR of 2.6 (95% CI: 1.8-3.6). Subanalysis of 6 studies showed that tuberculosis did not show an effect on mortality in PLWH exposed to HAART: HR 1.1 (95% CI: 0.9-1.3). CONCLUSION: These results provide an indication of the magnitude of benefit to an individual that could have been expected if tuberculosis had been prevented. It emphasizes the need for additional studies assessing the effect of preventing tuberculosis or early diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in PLWH on reducing mortality. Furthermore, the results of the subgroup analyses in cohorts largely exposed to HAART provide additional support to WHO's revised guidelines, which include promoting the initiation of HAART for PLWH co-infected with tuberculosis. The causal effect of tuberculosis on mortality in PLWH exposed to HAART needs to be further evaluated once the results of more cohort studies become available.

Tuberculin reactivity in a population of schoolchildren with high BCG vaccination coverage.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the influence of BCG vaccination or revaccination on tuberculin skin test reactivity, in order to guide the correct interpretation of this test in a setting of high neonatal BCG vaccination coverage and an increasing BCG revaccination coverage at school age. METHODS: We conducted tuberculin skin testing and BCG scar reading in 1 148 children aged 7-14 years old in the city of Salvador, Bahia, Brazil. We measured the positive effect of the presence of one or two BCG scars on the proportion of tuberculin skin test results above different cut-off levels (induration sizes of > or = 5 mm, > or = 10 mm, and > or = 15 mm) and also using several ranges of induration size (0, 1-4, 5-9, 10-14, and > or = 15 mm). We also measured the effects that age, gender, and the school where the child was enrolled had on these proportions. RESULTS: The proportion of tuberculin results > or = 10 mm was 14.2% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 8.0%-20.3%) for children with no BCG scar, 21.3% (95% CI = 18.5%-24.1%) for children with one BCG scar, and 45.0% (95% CI = 32.0%-58.0%) for children with two BCG scars. There was evidence for an increasing positive effect of the presence of one and two BCG scars on the proportion of results > or = 5 mm and > or = 10 mm. Similarly, there was evidence for an increasing positive effect of the presence of one and two scars on the proportion of tuberculin skin test results in the ranges of 5-9 mm and of 10-14 mm. The BCG scar effect on the proportion of results > or = 5 mm and > or = 10 mm did not vary with age. There was no evidence for BCG effect on the results > or = 15 mm. CONCLUSIONS: In Brazilian schoolchildren, BCG-induced tuberculin reactivity is indistinguishable, for results under 15 mm, from reactivity induced by Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. BCG revaccination at school age increases the degree of BCG-induced tuberculin reactivity found among schoolchildren. This information should be taken into account in tuberculin skin test surveys intended to estimate M. tuberculosis prevalence or to assess transmission patterns as well as in tuberculin skin testing of individuals used as an auxiliary tool in diagnosing tuberculosis. Taking this information into consideration is especially important when there is increasing BCG revaccination coverage.

Tuberculin reactivity in a population of schoolchildren with high BCG vaccination coverage

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the influence of BCG vaccination or revaccination on tuberculin skin test reactivity, in order to guide the correct interpretation of this test in a setting of high neonatal BCG vaccination coverage and an increasing BCG revaccination coverage at school age. METHODS: We conducted tuberculin skin testing and BCG scar reading in 1148 children aged 7-14 years old in the city of Salvador, Bahia, Brazil. We measured the positive effect of the presence of one or two BCG scars on the proportion of tuberculin skin test results above different cut-off levels (induration sizes of > 5 mm, > 10 mm, and > 15 mm) and also using several ranges of induration size (0, 1-4, 5-9, 10-14, and > 15 mm). We also measured the effects that age, gender, and the school where the child was enrolled had on these proportions. RESULTS: The proportion of tuberculin results > 10 mm was 14.2 percent (95 percent confidence interval (CI) = 8.0 percent-20.3 percent) for children with no BCG scar, 21.3 percent (95 percent CI = 18.5 percent-24.1 percent) for children with one BCG scar, and 45.0 percent (95 percent CI = 32.0 percent-58.0 percent) for children with two BCG scars. There was evidence for an increasing positive effect of the presence of one and two BCG scars on the proportion of results > 5 mm and > 10 mm. Similarly, there was evidence for an increasing positive effect of the presence of one and two scars on the proportion of tuberculin skin test results in the ranges of 5-9 mm and of 10-14 mm. The BCG scar effect on the proportion of results > 5 mm and > 10 mm did not vary with age. There was no evidence for BCG effect on the results > 15 mm. CONCLUSIONS: In Brazilian schoolchildren, BCG-induced tuberculin reactivity is indistinguishable, for results under 15 mm, from reactivity induced by Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. BCG revaccination at school age increases the degree of BCG-induced tuberculin reactivity found among schoolchildren. This information should be taken into account in tuberculin skin test surveys intended to estimate M. tuberculosis prevalence or to assess transmission patterns as well as in tuberculin skin testing of individuals used as an auxiliary tool in diagnosing tuberculosis. Taking this information into consideration is especially important when there is increasing BCG revaccination coverage

[Sensitivity and specificity of the BCG scar reading]. / Sensibilidade e especificidade da leitura da cicatriz vacinal do BCG.

OBJECTIVE: To validate the BCG scar as a marker of BCG vaccination status. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was carried out among 53,348 schoolchildren aged 6-14 years who underwent BCG scar examination as part of a large BCG vaccine trial taking place in the city of Manaus, Brazil. Results of BCG scar reading were compared with information on vaccine status of their vaccination cards or provided by parents or guardians. Double-reading was performed in a sub-sample. Data analysis was conducted using Stata 7 and Kappa coefficient. RESULTS: Of 52,348 schoolchildren studied, vaccine status information from parents/guardian letters was available for 29,254 and from vaccination cards for 4,947. There was found a high agreement between the double-readings of the scars (Kappa=0.81). When the agreement between letter and card information was the gold standard, the sensitivity of BCG scar readings was 96.6% (95%CI 96.0-97.1) and the specificity was 71.1% (95%CI 55.7-83.7). The sensitivity was 96.1%, 97.3% and 95.3% for children vaccinated up to one month of age, four months and one year, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Sensitivity and specificity did not show an association with the child's age at the scar reading. BCG scar was a good marker of BCG vaccination status regardless of age - from the first years of life up to 14 years old.

Sensibilidade e especificidade da leitura da cicatriz vacinal do BCG / Sensibility and speficity of the BCG scar reading

Objetivo: Validar a utilizaçäo da cicatriz vacinal de BCG como um indicador de vacinaçäo. MÉTODOS: Foi realizado um estudo transversal em 52.348 escolares, entre 6 e 14 anos de idade, que possuíam exame de cicatriz vacinal do BCG e que participaram de um ensaio clínico randomizado e controlado na cidade de Manaus, Brasil. Os dados da leitura da cicatriz vacinal foram comparados com a informaçäo sobre a vacinaçäo passada fornecida pelos cartöes vacinais ou informaçäo dos responsáveis. Em uma subamostra foi realizada leitura dupla com cálculo do coeficiente Kappa. Para análise dos dados utilizou-se o Stata 7. RESULTADOS: Do total de 52.348 escolares estudados, 29.254 possuíam informaçäo sobre cicatriz vacinal coletada por meio de carta aos pais, e 4.947 possuíam história de vacinaçäo coletada pelo cartäo de vacinas. Observou-se elevada concordância entre a dupla leitura de cicatriz vacinal (Kappa =0,81). A sensibilidade da leitura de cicatriz vacinal foi 96,6 por cento (95por cento IC 96,0-97,1) e a especificidade foi 71,1 por cento (95 por cento IC 55,7-83,7) quando o padräo ouro utilizado foi a concordância entre a carta aos pais e a informaçäo do cartäo de vacinas. A sensibilidade foi de 96,1 por cento, 97,3 por cento e 95,3 por cento para crianças vacinadas até um mês de idade, até 4 meses e até um ano de idade, respectivamente. CONCLUSOES: Os valores encontrados para sensibilidade e especificidade foram independentes da idade da realizaçäo da leitura de cicatriz vacinal. O exame da cicatriz vacinal mostrou ser um bom indicador para avaliar a situaçäo vacinal referente ao BCG