Stochastic population forecasts based on conditional expert opinions.

The paper develops and applies an expert-based stochastic population forecasting method, which can also be used to obtain a probabilistic version of scenario-based official forecasts. The full probability distribution of population forecasts is specified by starting from expert opinions on the future development of demographic components. Expert opinions are elicited as conditional on the realization of scenarios, in a two-step (or multiple-step) fashion. The method is applied to develop a stochastic forecast for the Italian population, starting from official scenarios from the Italian National Statistical Office.

Social age deadlines for the childbearing of women and men.

BACKGROUND: This study examines whether social age deadlines exist for childbearing in women and men, how they vary across countries, whether they are lower than actual biological deadlines and whether they are associated with childbearing at later ages and the availability of assisted reproduction techniques (ARTs). METHODS: This study is based on the European Social Survey, Round 3 (2006-2007), which covers 25 countries. Data were gathered on social age deadlines for childbearing in women (21 909 cases) and men (21 239 cases) from samples of representative community-dwelling populations aged 15 and older. RESULTS: Social age deadlines for childbearing were perceived more frequently for women than men. These deadlines are often lower than actual biological limits, and for women and men alike: 57.2% of respondents perceived a maternal social age deadline ≤ 40 years of age; 46.2% of the respondents perceived a paternal social age deadline ≤ 45 years of age. There is also considerable variability in deadlines across countries, as well as within them. At the country level, the presence of social age deadlines for the childbearing of women was negatively associated with birth rates at advanced ages and the prevalence of ART, and later deadlines were positively associated with these factors. CONCLUSIONS: It is important to understand the factors that increase and limit late fertility. While biological factors condition fertility, so do social expectations. These findings provide widespread evidence across Europe that social limits exist alongside biological ones, though both sets of factors are more binding for women.

Does cohort matter in pre-transitional mortality? Analysis of adult mortality using an event history approach: the case of Chioggia in the 17th century.

PIP: "In this paper, it is the purpose of the authors to show how to apply--in historical demography--some statistical techniques to estimate within the same model the age pattern of mortality, the intensity of relevant crises, as well as the possible presence of cohort effects.... In particular, we expect to find higher mortality effects for cohorts affected by famine periods during their developmental phases, as well as lower mortality effects for cohorts subsequent to the most important mortality crises.... The application will use data collected for the population of Chioggia (Dogado of Venice) in the seventeenth century." (EXCERPT)^ieng