Folic acid supplementation in postmenopausal women with hot flushes: phase III randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether folic acid supplementation ameliorates hot flushes. DESIGN: Double-blind, placebo-controlled randomised trial. SETTING: Nine hospitals in England. POPULATION: Postmenopausal women experiencing ≥50 hot flushes weekly. METHODS: Women (n = 164) were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive folic acid 5 mg tablet or placebo daily for 12 weeks. Participants recorded frequency and severity of hot flushes in a Sloan Diary daily and completed Greene Climacteric and Utian Quality of Life (UQoL) Scales at 4-week intervals. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The change in daily Hot Flush Score at week 12 from randomisation based on Sloan Diary Composite Score B calculation. RESULTS: Data of 143 (87%) women were available for the primary outcome. The mean change (SD) in Hot Flush Score at week 12 was -6.98 (10.30) and -4.57 (9.46) for folic acid and placebo group, respectively. The difference between groups in the mean change was -2.41 (95% CI -5.68 to 0.87) (P = 0.149) and in the adjusted mean change -2.61 (95% CI -5.72 to 0.49) (P = 0.098). Analysis of secondary outcomes indicated an increased benefit in the folic acid group regarding changes in total and emotional UQoL scores at week 8 when compared with placebo. The difference in the mean change from baseline was 5.22 (95% CI 1.16-9.28) and 1.88 (95% CI 0.23-3.52) for total and emotional score, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The study was not able to demonstrate that folic acid had a statistically significant greater benefit in reducing Hot Flush Score over 12 weeks in postmenopausal women when compared with placebo. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Folic acid may ameliorate hot flushes in postmenopausal women but confirmation is required from a larger study.

Analysis of phase II methodologies for single-arm clinical trials with multiple endpoints in rare cancers: An example in Ewing's sarcoma.

Trials run in either rare diseases, such as rare cancers, or rare sub-populations of common diseases are challenging in terms of identifying, recruiting and treating sufficient patients in a sensible period. Treatments for rare diseases are often designed for other disease areas and then later proposed as possible treatments for the rare disease after initial phase I testing is complete. To ensure the trial is in the best interests of the patient participants, frequent interim analyses are needed to force the trial to stop promptly if the treatment is futile or toxic. These non-definitive phase II trials should also be stopped for efficacy to accelerate research progress if the treatment proves to be particularly promising. In this paper, we review frequentist and Bayesian methods that have been adapted to incorporate two binary endpoints and frequent interim analyses. The Eurosarc Trial of Linsitinib in advanced Ewing Sarcoma (LINES) is used as a motivating example and provides a suitable platform to compare these approaches. The Bayesian approach provides greater design flexibility, but does not provide additional value over the frequentist approaches in a single trial setting when the prior is non-informative. However, Bayesian designs are able to borrow from any previous experience, using prior information to improve efficiency.

Effect of topical imiquimod as primary treatment for lentigo maligna: the LIMIT-1 study.

BACKGROUND: Topical imiquimod is sometimes used for lentigo maligna (LM) in situ melanoma instead of surgery, but frequency of cure is uncertain. Pathological complete regression (pCR) is a logical surrogate marker for cure after imiquimod, although residual LM and atypical melanocytic hyperplasia may not be reliably distinguished. A trial comparing imiquimod vs. surgery might be justified by a high imiquimod pCR rate. OBJECTIVES: Primary: to estimate the pCR rate for LM following imiquimod. Secondary: to assess the accuracy of prediction of pCR, using clinical complete regression (cCR) plus negative post-treatment biopsies, tolerability, resource use, patients' preferences and induced melanoma immunity. METHODS: This was a single-arm phase II trial of 60 imiquimod applications over 12 weeks for LM then radical resection. A pCR rate ≥ 25 out of 33 would reliably discriminate between pCR rates < 60% and ≥ 85%. Clinical response was assessed and biopsies taken after imiquimod. Patients recorded adverse events in diaries. Patient preference was measured after surgery using a standard gamble tool. RESULTS: The pCR rate was 10 of 27 (37%, 95% confidence interval 19-58%). The rate of cCR plus negative biopsies was 12 of 28, of whom seven of 11 had pCR on subsequent surgery. The median dose intensity was 86·7%. Of the 16 surveyed patients, eight preferred primary imiquimod over surgery if the cure rate for imiquimod was 80%, and four of 16 if it was ≤ 40%. CONCLUSIONS: The pCR rate was insufficient to justify phase III investigation of imiquimod vs. SURGERY: Clinical complete response and negative targeted biopsies left uncertainty regarding pathological clearance. Some patients would trade less aggressive treatment of LM against efficacy.

The National Lung Matrix Trial: translating the biology of stratification in advanced non-small-cell lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: The management of NSCLC has been transformed by stratified medicine. The National Lung Matrix Trial (NLMT) is a UK-wide study exploring the activity of rationally selected biomarker/targeted therapy combinations. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The Cancer Research UK (CRUK) Stratified Medicine Programme 2 is undertaking the large volume national molecular pre-screening which integrates with the NLMT. At study initiation, there are eight drugs being used to target 18 molecular cohorts. The aim is to determine whether there is sufficient signal of activity in any drug-biomarker combination to warrant further investigation. A Bayesian adaptive design that gives a more realistic approach to decision making and flexibility to make conclusions without fixing the sample size was chosen. The screening platform is an adaptable 28-gene Nextera next-generation sequencing platform designed by Illumina, covering the range of molecular abnormalities being targeted. The adaptive design allows new biomarker-drug combination cohorts to be incorporated by substantial amendment. The pre-clinical justification for each biomarker-drug combination has been rigorously assessed creating molecular exclusion rules and a trumping strategy in patients harbouring concomitant actionable genetic abnormalities. Discrete routes of pathway activation or inactivation determined by cancer genome aberrations are treated as separate cohorts. Key translational analyses include the deep genomic analysis of pre- and post-treatment biopsies, the establishment of patient-derived xenograft models and longitudinal ctDNA collection, in order to define predictive biomarkers, mechanisms of resistance and early markers of response and relapse. CONCLUSION: The SMP2 platform will provide large scale genetic screening to inform entry into the NLMT, a trial explicitly aimed at discovering novel actionable cohorts in NSCLC. CLINICAL TRIAL ISRCTN: 38344105.

Patient preferences for clinical follow-up after primary treatment for soft tissue sarcoma: a cross-sectional survey and discrete choice experiment.

BACKGROUND: Patients treated for soft tissue sarcoma (STS) require long-term follow-up to detect recurrent or metastatic disease, yet marked differences exist in clinical approaches to the length of follow-up, frequency of consultations and investigations undertaken at follow-up visits. There has been no published work assessing patient expectations or the acceptability of post-treatment follow-up strategies. This study aimed to assess the patient acceptability of different follow-up strategies following curative surgery for soft tissue sarcoma and to investigate the hypothetical levels of recurrence risk at which different follow-up regimes were acceptable. METHODS: Patients were recruited from the Royal Orthopaedic Hospital in Birmingham. The study used a cross-sectional survey incorporating a best-worst scaling discrete choice experiment to assess patient preferences regarding different aspects of follow-up. RESULTS: 132 patients participated (47% response). The nature of investigations undertaken during follow-up was the most important aspect of post-surgical care. Patients typically preferred appointments routinely consisting of clinical examination and chest X-ray, and for follow-up to remain in secondary care rather than general practice. CONCLUSION: Clear protocols for STS patient follow-up can improve consistency and equity of care. In determining the optimum follow-up plan for STS patients from the patient perspective, this study provides valuable information that should be considered alongside the clinical effectiveness of follow-up strategies to maximise patient outcomes and use NHS resources appropriately.

Phase I/II trial of a dendritic cell vaccine transfected with DNA encoding melan A and gp100 for patients with metastatic melanoma.

This trial tested a dendritic cell (DC) therapeutic cancer vaccine in which antigen is loaded using a novel non-viral transfection method enabling the uptake of plasmid DNA condensed with a cationic peptide. Proof of principle required the demonstration of diverse T lymphocyte responses following vaccination, including multiple reactivities restricted through both major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I and II. Patients with advanced melanoma were offered four cycles of vaccination with autologous DC expressing melan A and gp100. Disease response was measured using Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumours. Circulating MHC class I- and II-restricted responses were measured against peptide and whole antigen targets using interferon-γ ELIspot and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay assays, respectively. Responses were analyzed across the trial population and presented descriptively for some individuals. Twenty-five patients received at least one cycle. Vaccination was well tolerated. Three patients had reduction in disease volume. Across the trial population, vaccination resulted in an expansion of effector responses to both antigens, to the human leukocyte antigen A2-restricted modified epitope, melan A ELAGIGILTV, and to a panel of MHC class I- and II-restricted epitopes. Vaccination with mature DC non-virally transfected with DNA encoding antigen had biological effect causing tumour regression and inducing diverse T lymphocyte responses.

Modelling prognostic factors in advanced pancreatic cancer.

Pancreatic cancer is the fifth most common cause of cancer death. Identification of defined patient groups based on a prognostic index may improve the prediction of survival and selection of therapy. Many prognostic factors have been identified often based on retrospective, underpowered studies with unclear analyses. Data from 653 patients were analysed. Continuous variables are often simplified assuming a linear relationship with log hazard or introducing a step function (dichotomising). Misspecification may lead to inappropriate conclusions but has not been previously investigated in pancreatic cancer studies. Models based on standard assumptions were compared with a novel approach using nonlinear fractional polynomial (FP) transformations. The model based on FP-transformed covariates was most appropriate and confirmed five previously reported prognostic factors: albumin, CA 19-9, alkaline phosphatase, LDH and metastases, and identified three additional factors not previously reported: WBC, AST and BUN. The effects of CA 19-9, alkaline phosphatase, AST and BUN may go unrecognised due to simplistic assumptions made in statistical modelling. We advocate a multivariable approach that uses information contained within continuous variables appropriately. The functional form of the relationship between continuous covariates and survival should always be assessed. Our model should aid individual patient risk stratification and the design and analysis of future trials in pancreatic cancer.

Hypoxia-regulated carbonic anhydrase IX expression is associated with poor survival in patients with invasive breast cancer.

Tumour hypoxia is a microenvironmental factor related to poor response to radiation, chemotherapy, genetic instability, selection for resistance to apoptosis, and increased risk of invasion and metastasis. Hypoxia-regulated carbonic anhydrase IX (CA IX) has been studied in various tumour sites and its expression has been correlated with the clinical outcome. The purpose of this study was to investigate the correlation of CA IX expression with outcome in patients with invasive breast cancer. We conducted a retrospective study examining the effects of carbonic anhydrase IX (CA IX) on survival in patients with breast cancer. To facilitate the screening of multiple tissue blocks from each patient, tissue microarrays were prepared containing between two and five representative samples of tumour per patient. Immunohistochemistry was used to examine expression of CA IX in patients with breast cancer. The study includes a cohort of 144 unselected patients with early invasive breast cancer who underwent surgery, and had CA IX expression and follow-up data available for analysis. At the time of analysis, there were 28 deaths and median follow-up of 48 months with 96% of patients having at least 2 years of follow-up. CA IX was negative for 107 patients (17 deaths) and positive for 37 patients (11 deaths). Kaplan-Meier survival curves show that survival was superior in the CA IX-negative group with a 2-year survival of 97% for negatives and 83% for positives (log-rank test P=0.01). Allowing for potential prognostic variables in a Cox regression analysis, CA IX remained a significant independent predictor of survival (P=0.035). This study showed in both univariate and multivariate analysis that survival is significantly inferior in patients with tumour expressing CA IX. Prospective studies are underway to investigate this correlation in clinical trial setting.

Follow up after Primary Treatment of Soft Tissue Sarcoma: A Survey of Current Practice in the United Kingdom.

Despite the clinical and financial implications, there is little evidence about how patients who have been treated for soft tissue sarcoma should be followed up. The purpose of this study was to determine current practice in the United Kingdom. 192 clinicians treating patients with soft tissue sarcoma were surveyed with a postal questionnaire enquiring about frequency and method of follow up and how patients would be followed up in each of 3 clinical scenarios: a patient with a trunk or extremity tumour at low risk of relapse; a patient with a trunk or extremity tumour at high risk of relapse; and a patient with a retroperitoneal or abdominal tumour. 155 (81%) clinicians responded. Clinic visits and X-rays were the most frequently used methods of follow up. Chest CT scans, local site imaging, and blood tests were used infrequently. The intensity and methods of follow up varied with each of the clinical scenarios. There was a seven-to-twenty fold variation in cost between the least and the most expensive regimes. Respondents were generally supportive of the development of the clinical trial in this area.

Identification of serum biomarkers for colon cancer by proteomic analysis.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is often diagnosed at a late stage with concomitant poor prognosis. Early detection greatly improves prognosis; however, the invasive, unpleasant and inconvenient nature of current diagnostic procedures limits their applicability. No serum-based test is currently of sufficient sensitivity or specificity for widespread use. In the best currently available blood test, carcinoembryonic antigen exhibits low sensitivity and specificity particularly in the setting of early disease. Hence, there is great need for new biomarkers for early detection of CRC. We have used surface-enhanced laser desorbtion/ionisation (SELDI) to investigate the serum proteome of 62 CRC patients and 31 noncancer subjects. We have identified proteins (complement C3a des-arg, alpha1-antitrypsin and transferrin) with diagnostic potential. Artificial neural networks trained using only the intensities of the SELDI peaks corresponding to identified proteins were able to classify the patients used in this study with 95% sensitivity and 91% specificity.

Changes in the serum proteome associated with the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in hepatitis C-related cirrhosis.

Early diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the key to the delivery of effective therapies. The conventional serological diagnostic test, estimation of serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) lacks both sensitivity and specificity as a screening tool and improved tests are needed to complement ultrasound scanning, the major modality for surveillance of groups at high risk of HCC. We have analysed the serum proteome of 182 patients with hepatitis C-induced liver cirrhosis (77 with HCC) by surface-enhanced laser desorption/ionisation time-of-flight mass spectrometry (SELDI). The patients were split into a training set (84 non-HCC, 60 HCC) and a 'blind' test set (21 non-HCC, 17 HCC). Neural networks developed on the training set were able to classify the blind test set with 94% sensitivity (95% CI 73-99%) and 86% specificity (95% CI 65-95%). Two of the SELDI peaks (23/23.5 kDa) were elevated by an average of 50% in the serum of HCC patients (P<0.001) and were identified as kappa and lambda immunoglobulin light chains. This approach may permit identification of several individual proteins, which, in combination, may offer a novel way to diagnose HCC.

Management of febrile neutropenia in the United Kingdom: time for a national trial?

Recent advances in febrile neutropenia (FN) have highlighted the value of risk stratification and the evolving role of oral antibiotics with early hospital discharge in low-risk patients. The aim of this study was to survey whether these advances have been translated into routine clinical practice in the UK. Questionnaires were sent to cancer clinicians across the UK to determine clinicians' routine management of FN, including use of risk stratification, antibiotic regimen and criteria for hospital discharge. In all, 128 clinicians responded, representing 50 cancer departments (83%). Only 38% of respondents stratify patients according to risk and with substantial variation in the criteria defining 'low-risk'. Furthermore, only 22% of clinicians use oral antibiotics as first-line treatment in any patients with FN, but this was significantly greater among clinicians who do compared to those who do not stratify patients by risk, 51 vs 4% (P<0.0001). These findings suggest a slow and/or cautious introduction of newer strategies for the management of low-risk FN in the UK. However, 84% of respondents confirmed their willingness to participate in a trial of oral antibiotics combined with early discharge in low-risk FN.

The effect of Epstein-Barr virus status on outcome in age- and sex-defined subgroups of patients with advanced Hodgkin's disease.

BACKGROUND: Conflicting data on the effect of the Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) on outcome in Hodgkin's disease (HD) might be due to the heterogeneous nature of this disease. In this study we have investigated whether the effect of EBV status on outcome is different between aetiologically defined age groups (15-34, 35-44, 45+ years) and also between males and females. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Paraffin-embedded sections from 273 patients with advanced HD from two related clinical trials were analysed for the presence of EBV using in situ hybridisation. RESULTS: EBV was detected in 78 (29%) of cases. For all patients, after a median follow-up of 5 years, there were no significant differences in survival by EBV status although there was a trend towards longer failure-free survival times for EBV-positive patients. Multivariate analyses suggested that EBV and sex, when in combination, were prognostic factors for failure-free survival (P = 0.06 for both). For subgroups, the effect of EBV on failure-free survival was significant for males and 15-34 years age group (P = 0.05 and P = 0.03, respectively). CONCLUSION: This study suggests that with a median follow-up of 5 years, EBV status does not affect survival but being EBV-positive may be beneficial in terms of failure-free survival, particularly for males and younger adults.

Patterns, costs and cost-effectiveness of care in a trial of chemotherapy for advanced non-small cell lung cancer.

In a recently published randomised trial of chemotherapy versus palliative care in advanced non-small cell lung cancer (the MIC2 trial), chemotherapy was shown to prolong survival without compromising quality of life. The study presented here examines patterns of care and their associated costs within a representative subgroup of patients from the MIC2 trial. The study consisted of 116 patients from the South Birmingham Health Authority area. The total health service cost for each patient from entry to trial to death or last follow-up was calculated by combining the resources used with their associated unit costs. The mean cost for patients with complete data on the chemotherapy arm was 6999 pounds sterling (standard deviation (S.D.) 4194 pounds sterling) compared to 4076 pounds sterling (S.D. 3078 pounds sterling) for those with complete data on the palliative care arm. Non-parametric bootstrapping gave a difference between treatment arms in mean cost of 2924 pounds sterling(95% CI 1234 pounds sterling - 4323 pounds sterling). With a difference in mean survival of 2.4 months, this translates to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 14,620 pounds sterling per life year gained. Chemotherapy was found to be more costly than standard palliative care, mainly due to the increased number of hospital in-patient days.

Retrospective study of acute toxicity following short-course preoperative radiotherapy.

BACKGROUND: The use of short-course preoperative radiotherapy (25 Gy in five fractions over 1 week) in resectable rectal cancer reduces local recurrence but is associated with an increased risk of postoperative complications and late toxicity. This study aimed to identify those patients who are unlikely to benefit from short-course preoperative radiotherapy and the factors associated with acute toxicity. METHODS: All patients who received short-course preoperative radiotherapy at a university hospital in 1998 and 1999 were included in this retrospective study. The association between complications occurring within 3 months and patient demographics, radiotherapy technique, surgical details and overall treatment time (OTT) was assessed by univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: The mortality rate at 30 days was 6 per cent in the 177 patients identified. Thirty-seven per cent of patients had either Dukes' A tumours, surgically incurable disease or positive circumferential margins. One or more complications occurred in 38 per cent of patients. On multivariate analysis an OTT of more than 13 days (P = 0.03), age (P = 0.02) and length of the radiotherapy field (P = 0.05) were associated with an increased risk of complications. CONCLUSION: Surgery within 1 week of completing short-course preoperative radiotherapy improved preoperative staging and use of an optimal radiotherapy technique will result in fewer patients at risk of acute toxicity.

Simultaneous analysis of quality of life and survival data.

In many phase III clinical trials, particularly in the field of cancer, the comparison of treatments is based on both length of survival and quality of life. Subjects are followed over time until death and during this period, quality of life is assessed on a number of occasions. Simultaneous analysis of these two outcomes supplements the comparison of treatments in terms of each outcome independently with an assessment of the net effect. In addition, it provides a means of accounting for the informative dropout due to death of patients within the time frame of the quality of life study. The methods also have the potential to be extended to allow for informative dropout from the quality of life study prior to death. There are a number of broad approaches for the simultaneous analysis of quality of life and survival data. The most widely used approach in clinical research is quality-adjusted survival analysis, where treatments are compared in terms of a composite measure of quality and quantity of life. The paper reviews the different techniques for quality-adjusted survival analysis, illustrating the methodology by application to data from a phase III clinical trial in pancreatic cancer. In addition, alternative approaches using multistate survival analysis and joint modelling methods are also discussed.

The benefits of chemotherapy in patient subgroups with unresectable non-small-cell lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: Cisplatin-based chemotherapy improves survival in advanced non-small-cell lung cancer. Using data from phase III trials of mitomycin, ifosfamide and cisplatin, this paper investigates whether the beneficial effect of chemotherapy on survival and quality of life seen overall is limited to certain patient subgroups. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The survival benefit of chemotherapy was compared with standard treatment using hazard ratios for subgroups specified by stage, sex, age, histology and performance status (PS). The effect on quality of life was investigated for three subgroups defined by performance status. RESULTS: The overall unstratified hazard ratio for all 797 eligible patients shows a 16% reduction in the risk of death with chemotherapy (P = 0.02). This benefit was seen for both locally advanced and extensive stage disease (significantly in extensive disease). Subgroups defined by sex, age and histology consistently benefitted from chemotherapy. The hazard ratios for the three levels of performance status suggest that PS2 patients gain no survival benefit from chemotherapy. In contrast, these patients experienced the greatest improvement in quality of life during the first six weeks of chemotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: Subgroup analysis suggests that the prolongation of life from cisplatin-based chemotherapy is confined to PS0/1 patients. Palliation is greater in PS2 patients.