Principles and framework for assessing the risk of bias for studies included in comparative quantitative environmental systematic reviews.

The internal validity of conclusions about effectiveness or impact in systematic reviews, and of decisions based on them, depends on risk of bias assessments being conducted appropriately. However, a random sample of 50 recently-published articles claiming to be quantitative environmental systematic reviews found 64% did not include any risk of bias assessment, whilst nearly all that did omitted key sources of bias. Other limitations included lack of transparency, conflation of quality constructs, and incomplete application of risk of bias assessments to the data synthesis. This paper addresses deficiencies in risk of bias assessments by highlighting core principles that are required for risk of bias assessments to be fit-for-purpose, and presenting a framework based on these principles to guide review teams on conducting risk of bias assessments appropriately and consistently. The core principles require that risk of bias assessments be Focused, Extensive, Applied and Transparent (FEAT). These principles support risk of bias assessments, appraisal of risk of bias tools, and the development of new tools. The framework follows a Plan-Conduct-Apply-Report approach covering all stages of risk of bias assessment. The scope of this paper is comparative quantitative environmental systematic reviews which address PICO or PECO-type questions including, but not limited to, topic areas such as environmental management, conservation, ecosystem restoration, and analyses of environmental interventions, exposures, impacts and risks.

Recommendations for the conduct of systematic reviews in toxicology and environmental health research (COSTER).

BACKGROUND: There are several standards that offer explicit guidance on good practice in systematic reviews (SRs) for the medical sciences; however, no similarly comprehensive set of recommendations has been published for SRs that focus on human health risks posed by exposure to environmental challenges, chemical or otherwise. OBJECTIVES: To develop an expert, cross-sector consensus view on a key set of recommended practices for the planning and conduct of SRs in the environmental health sciences. METHODS: A draft set of recommendations was derived from two existing standards for SRs in biomedicine and developed in a consensus process, which engaged international participation from government, industry, non-government organisations, and academia. The consensus process consisted of a workshop, follow-up webinars, email discussion and bilateral phone calls. RESULTS: The Conduct of Systematic Reviews in Toxicology and Environmental Health Research (COSTER) recommendations cover 70 SR practices across eight performance domains. Detailed explanations for specific recommendations are made for those identified by the authors as either being novel to SR in general, specific to the environmental health SR context, or potentially controversial to environmental health SR stakeholders. DISCUSSION: COSTER provides a set of recommendations that should facilitate the production of credible, high-value SRs of environmental health evidence, and advance discussion of a number of controversial aspects of conduct of EH SRs. Key recommendations include the management of conflicts of interest, handling of grey literature, and protocol registration and publication. A process for advancing from COSTER's recommendations to developing a formal standard for EH SRs is also indicated.

The effects of non-native signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus) on fine sediment and sediment-biomonitoring.

The North American signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus) has invaded freshwater ecosystems across Europe. Recent studies suggest that predation of macroinvertebrates by signal crayfish can affect the performance of freshwater biomonitoring tools used to assess causes of ecological degradation. Given the reliance on biomonitoring globally, it is crucial that the potential influence of invasive species is better understood. Crayfish are also biogeomorphic agents, and therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate whether sediment-biomonitoring tool outputs changed following signal crayfish invasions, and whether these changes reflected post-invasion changes to deposited fine sediment, or changes to macroinvertebrate community compositions unrelated to fine sediment. A quasi-experimental study design was employed, utilising interrupted time series analysis of long-term environmental monitoring data and a hierarchical modelling approach. The analysis of all sites (n=71) displayed a small, but statistically significant increase between pre- and post-invasion index scores for the Proportion of Sediment-sensitive Invertebrates (PSI) index biomonitoring tool (4.1, p<0.001, 95%CI: 2.1, 6.2), which can range from 0 to 100, but no statistically significant difference was observed for the empirically-weighted PSI (0.4, p=0.742, 95%CI: -2.1, 2.9), or fine sediment (-2.3, p=0.227, 95%CI: -6.0, 1.4). Subgroup analyses demonstrated changes in biomonitoring tool scores ranging from four to 10 percentage points. Importantly, these subgroup analyses showed relatively small changes to fine sediment, two of which were statistically significant, but these did not coincide with the expected responses from biomonitoring tools. The results suggest that sediment-biomonitoring may be influenced by signal crayfish invasions, but the effects appear to be context dependent, and perhaps not the result of biogeomorphic activities of crayfish. The low magnitude changes to biomonitoring scores are unlikely to result in an incorrect diagnosis of sediment pressure, particularly as these tools should be used alongside a suite of other pressure-specific indices.

The effects of run-of-river hydroelectric power schemes on invertebrate community composition in temperate streams and rivers.

Run-of-river (ROR) hydroelectric power (HEP) schemes are often presumed to be less ecologically damaging than large-scale storage HEP schemes. However, there is currently limited scientific evidence on their ecological impact. The aim of this article is to investigate the effects of ROR HEP schemes on communities of invertebrates in temperate streams and rivers, using a multi-site Before-After, Control-Impact (BACI) study design. The study makes use of routine environmental surveillance data collected as part of long-term national and international monitoring programmes at 22 systematically-selected ROR HEP schemes and 22 systematically-selected paired control sites. Five widely-used family-level invertebrate metrics (richness, evenness, LIFE, E-PSI, WHPT) were analysed using a linear mixed effects model. The analyses showed that there was a statistically significant effect (p<0.05) of ROR HEP construction and operation on the evenness of the invertebrate community. However, no statistically significant effects were detected on the four other metrics of community composition. The implications of these findings are discussed in this article and recommendations are made for best-practice study design for future invertebrate community impact studies.

The Effects of Run-of-River Hydroelectric Power Schemes on Fish Community Composition in Temperate Streams and Rivers.

The potential environmental impacts of large-scale storage hydroelectric power (HEP) schemes have been well-documented in the literature. In Europe, awareness of these potential impacts and limited opportunities for politically-acceptable medium- to large-scale schemes, have caused attention to focus on smaller-scale HEP schemes, particularly run-of-river (ROR) schemes, to contribute to meeting renewable energy targets. Run-of-river HEP schemes are often presumed to be less environmentally damaging than large-scale storage HEP schemes. However, there is currently a lack of peer-reviewed studies on their physical and ecological impact. The aim of this article was to investigate the effects of ROR HEP schemes on communities of fish in temperate streams and rivers, using a Before-After, Control-Impact (BACI) study design. The study makes use of routine environmental surveillance data collected as part of long-term national and international monitoring programmes at 23 systematically-selected ROR HEP schemes and 23 systematically-selected paired control sites. Six area-normalised metrics of fish community composition were analysed using a linear mixed effects model (number of species, number of fish, number of Atlantic salmon-Salmo salar, number of >1 year old Atlantic salmon, number of brown trout-Salmo trutta, and number of >1 year old brown trout). The analyses showed that there was a statistically significant effect (p<0.05) of ROR HEP construction and operation on the number of species. However, no statistically significant effects were detected on the other five metrics of community composition. The implications of these findings are discussed in this article and recommendations are made for best-practice study design for future fish community impact studies.

Systematic reviews: Separating fact from fiction.

The volume of scientific literature continues to expand and decision-makers are faced with increasingly unmanageable volumes of evidence to assess. Systematic reviews (SRs) are powerful tools that aim to provide comprehensive, transparent, reproducible and updateable summaries of evidence. SR methods were developed, and have been employed, in healthcare for more than two decades, and they are now widely used across a broad range of topics, including environmental management and social interventions in crime and justice, education, international development, and social welfare. Despite these successes and the increasing acceptance of SR methods as a 'gold standard' in evidence-informed policy and practice, misconceptions still remain regarding their applicability. The aim of this article is to separate fact from fiction, addressing twelve common misconceptions that can influence the decision as to whether a SR is the most appropriate method for evidence synthesis for a given topic. Through examples, we illustrate the flexibility of SR methods and demonstrate their suitability for addressing issues on environmental health and chemical risk assessment.

Implementing systematic review techniques in chemical risk assessment: Challenges, opportunities and recommendations.

Systematic review (SR) is a rigorous, protocol-driven approach designed to minimise error and bias when summarising the body of research evidence relevant to a specific scientific question. Taking as a comparator the use of SR in synthesising research in healthcare, we argue that SR methods could also pave the way for a "step change" in the transparency, objectivity and communication of chemical risk assessments (CRA) in Europe and elsewhere. We suggest that current controversies around the safety of certain chemicals are partly due to limitations in current CRA procedures which have contributed to ambiguity about the health risks posed by these substances. We present an overview of how SR methods can be applied to the assessment of risks from chemicals, and indicate how challenges in adapting SR methods from healthcare research to the CRA context might be overcome. Regarding the latter, we report the outcomes from a workshop exploring how to increase uptake of SR methods, attended by experts representing a wide range of fields related to chemical toxicology, risk analysis and SR. Priorities which were identified include: the conduct of CRA-focused prototype SRs; the development of a recognised standard of reporting and conduct for SRs in toxicology and CRA; and establishing a network to facilitate research, communication and training in SR methods. We see this paper as a milestone in the creation of a research climate that fosters communication between experts in CRA and SR and facilitates wider uptake of SR methods into CRA.

Suspended sediment regimes in contrasting reference-condition freshwater ecosystems: implications for water quality guidelines and management.

Suspended sediment (SS), ranging from nano-scale particles to sand-sized sediments, is one of the most common contributors to water quality impairment globally. However, there is currently little scientific evidence as to what should be regarded as an appropriate SS regime for different freshwater ecosystems. In this article, we compare the SS regimes of ten systematically-selected contrasting reference-condition temperate river ecosystems that were observed through high-resolution monitoring between 2011 and 2013. The results indicate that mean SS concentrations vary spatially, between 3 and 29 mg L(-1). The observed mean SS concentrations were compared to predicted mean SS concentrations based on a model developed by Bilotta et al. (2012). Predictions were in the form of probability of membership to one of the five SS concentration ranges, predicted as a function of a number of the natural environmental characteristics associated with each river's catchment. This model predicted the correct or next closest SS range for all of the sites. Mean annual SS concentrations varied temporally in each river, by up to three-fold between a relatively dry year (2011-2012) and a relatively wet year (2012-2013). This inter-annual variability could be predicted reasonably well for all the sites except the River Rother, using the model described above, but with modified input data to take into account the mean annual temperature (°C) and total annual precipitation (mm) in the year for which the mean SS prediction is to be made. The findings highlight the need for water quality guidelines for SS to recognise natural spatial and temporal variations in SS within rivers. The findings also demonstrate the importance of the temporal resolution of SS sampling in determining assessments of compliance against water quality guidelines.

Using artificial fluorescent particles as tracers of livestock wastes within an agricultural catchment.

Evidence for the movement of agricultural slurry and associated pollutants into surface waters is often anecdotal, particularly with relation to its 'particulate' components which receive less attention than 'bio-available' soluble phases. To assess the extent of movement of slurry particles artificial fluorescent particles were mixed with slurry and applied to a field sub-catchment within a headwater catchment. Particles were 2-60 µm in diameter and two different densities, 2.7 and 1.2 g cm(-3) representing 'inorganic' and 'organic' material. Water samples from the field and catchment outlet were collected during two storm events following slurry application and analysed for particle and suspended sediment concentrations (SSC). SSC from the field and catchment outlet always formed clockwise hysteresis loops indicating sediment exhaustion and particles of the two densities were always found to be positively correlated. Particles from the field formed clockwise hysteresis loops during the first discharge event after slurry application, but anti-clockwise hysteresis loops during the second monitored event which indicated a depletion of readily mobilisable particles. Particles from the catchment outlet always formed anticlockwise hysteresis loops. Particle size became finer spatially, between field and catchment outlet, and temporally, between successive storm events. The results indicate that slurry particles may be readily transported within catchments but that different areas may contribute to pollutant loads long after the main peak in SSC has passed. The density of the particles did not appear to have any effect on particle transport however the size of the particles may play a more important role in the 2-60 µm range.

Assessing multiple novel tracers to improve the understanding of the contribution of agricultural farm waste to diffuse water pollution.

A study was undertaken on drained and undrained 1 ha grassland lysimeters to assess the effectiveness of multiple novel tracing techniques in understanding how agricultural slurry waste moves from land to water. Artificial fluorescent particles designed to mimic the size and density of organic slurry particles were found to move off the grassland via inter-flow (surface + lateral through-flow) and drain-flow. Where both pathways were present the drains carried the greater number of particles. The results of the natural fluorescence and δ13C of water samples were inconclusive. Natural fluorescence was higher from slurry-amended lysimeters than from zero-slurry lysimeters, however, a fluorescence decay experiment suggested that no slurry signal should be present given the time between slurry application and the onset of drainage. The δ13C values of >0.7 microm and <0.7 microm material in drainage were varied and unrelated to discharge. The mean value of >0.7 microm δ13C in water from the drain-flow pathways was higher from the lysimeter which had received naturally enriched maize slurry compared to the lysimeter which received grass slurry indicating a contribution of slurry-derived material. Values of <0.7 microm δ13C from the same pathway, however, produced counter intuitive trends and may indicate that different fractions of the slurry have different δ13C values.

Uncertainties in data and models to describe event dynamics of agricultural sediment and phosphorus transfer.

Mathematical models help to quantify agricultural sediment and phosphorus transfers and to simulate mitigation of pollution. This paper develops empirical models of the dominant sediment and phosphorus event dynamics observed at high resolution in a drained and undrained, intensive grassland field-scale lysimeter (1 ha) experiment. The uncertainties in model development and simulation are addressed using Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation. A comparison of suspended solids (SS) and total phosphorus (TP) samples with a limited number of manual repeats indicates larger data variability at low flows. Quantitative uncertainty estimates for discharge (Q) are available from another study. Suspended solids-discharge (SS-Q) hysteresis is analyzed for four events and two drained and two undrained fields. Hysteresis loops differ spatially and temporally, and exhaustion is apparent between sequential hydrograph peaks. A coherent empirical model framework for hysteresis, where SS is a function of Q and rate of change of Q, is proposed. This is evaluated taking the Q uncertainty into account, which can contribute substantially to the overall uncertainty of model simulations. The model simulates small hysteresis loops well but fails to simulate exhaustion of SS sources and flushing at the onset of events. Analysis of the TP-SS relationship reveals that most of the variability occurs at low flows, and a power-law relationship can explain the dominant behavior at higher flows, which is consistent across events, fields, and pathways. The need for further field experiments to test hypotheses of sediment mobilization and to quantify data uncertainties is identified.

Using delta15N and delta18O to evaluate the sources and pathways of NO3- in rainfall event discharge from drained agricultural grassland lysimeters at high temporal resolutions.

The origin of NO(3) (-) yielded in drainage from agricultural grasslands is of environmental significance and has three potential sources; (i) soil organic mater (SOM), (ii) recent agricultural amendments, and (iii) atmospheric inputs. The variation in delta(15)N-NO(3) (-) and delta(18)O-NO(3) (-) was measured from the 'inter-flow' and 'drain-flow' of two 1 ha drained lysimeter plots, one of which had received an application of 21 m(3) of NH(4) (+)-N-rich agricultural slurry, during two rainfall events. Drainage started to occur 1 month after the application of slurry. The concentrations of NO(3) (-)-N from the two lysimeters were comparable; an initial flush of NO(3) (-)-N occurred at the onset of drainage from both lysimeters before levels quickly dropped to <1 mg NO(3) (-)-N L(-1). The isotopic signature of the delta(15)N-NO(3) (-) and delta(18)O-NO(3) (-) during the first two rainfall events showed a great deal of variation over short time-periods from both lysimeters. Isotopic variation of delta(15)N-NO(3) (-) during rainfall events ranged between -1.6 to +5.2 per thousand and +0.4 to +11.1 per thousand from the inter-flow and drain-flow, respectively. Variation in the delta(18)O-NO(3) (-) ranged from +2.0 to +7.8 per thousand and from +3.3 to +8.4 per thousand. No significant relationships between the delta(15)N-NO(3) (-) or delta(18)O-NO(3) (-) and flow rate were observed in most cases although delta(18)O-NO(3) (-) values indicated a positive relationship and delta(15)N-NO(3) (-) values a negative relationship with flow during event 2. Data from a bulked rainfall sample when compared with the theoretical delta(18)O-NO(3) (-) for soil microbial NO(3) (-) indicated that the contribution of rainfall NO(3) (-) accounted for 8% of the NO(3) (-) in the lysimeter drainage at most. The calculated contribution of rainfall NO(3) (-) was not enough to account for the depletion in delta(15)N-NO(3) (-) values observed during the duration of the rainfall event 2. The relationship between delta(15)N-NO(3) (-) and delta(18)O-NO(3) (-) from the drain-flow indicated that denitrification was causing enrichment in the isotopes from this pathway. The presence of slurry seemed to cause a relative depletion in delta(18)O-NO(3) (-) in the inter-flow and delta(15)N-NO(3) (-) in the drain-flow compared with the zero-slurry lysimeter. This may have been caused by increased microbial nitrification stimulated by the presence of increased NH(4) (+)-N.