DDD-costs have a strong influence on antibacterial drug prescription in Germany: a differentiated correlation analysis from 1985 to 2022.

Antibacterial drugs are vital in modern medicine, and understanding the factors influencing their prescriptions is essential for maintaining their effectiveness and accessibility. This study investigates the hypothesis that costs significantly impact the prescriptions of antibacterial drugs, a factor previously underrecognized. To investigate this, we conducted correlation analyses on defined daily dose (DDD-) prescriptions and DDD-costs for the 15 most prescribed antibacterial drugs in Germany in 2022, using data from the Arzneimittelverordnungsreport (Drug Prescription Report) (1985-2022). The analysis focused on the periods 1985-2022, 1985-2011, and 2012-2022. Our findings revealed significant correlations between DDD-prescriptions and -costs for nearly all drugs over the entire period (1985-2022), with strong negative correlations for amoxicillin (- 0.941), cefuroxime axetil (- 0.900), clindamycin (- 0.800), nitrofurantoin (- 0.895), and cefaclor (- 0.819). From 1985 to 2011, only significant negative correlations were observed. In 2012-2022, significant correlations included both negative and positive, with strong positive correlations for ciprofloxacin (0.950) and clarithromycin (0.962). Overall, DDD-costs showed a persistent and strong correlation with DDD-prescriptions, particularly in the earlier period. This influence appears to diminish slightly in recent years, suggesting other factors might become more significant as DDD-costs plateau. Notably, amoxicillin, amoxicillin clavulanic acid, and nitrofurantoin consistently exhibited strong cost-prescription correlations throughout the entire period. While correlation does not imply causation, the significant and strong correlations, coupled with logical explanations, support the hypothesis that costs are a primary factor in prescribing patterns. Further research is needed to establish causality and examine other potential systemic factors affecting antibacterial drug prescriptions.

Costs are a major driver of antibacterial drug prescriptions in Germany: market analysis from 1985 to 2022.

In recent years, several threatening developments regarding antibacterial drugs, such as rising bacterial resistance and delivery bottlenecks, have occurred. Since antibacterial drugs are crucial for modern medicine, understanding events and influencing factors relevant for long-term developments is essential. Therefore, we analyzed the number of prescriptions and costs, defined daily dose (DDD) and DDD costs of antibacterial drugs in Germany, based on the Arzneiverordnungsreport (AVR, Drug description report) between 1985 and 2022. Based on prescription rates in 2022, we selected the TOP15 and TOP5. For a more in-depth analysis, we analyzed data from the wissenschaftliches Institut der AOK (WidO, scientific institute of the AOK). The number of prescriptions increased between 1985 and 2013, but since 2014, there has been a declining trend with a noticeable COVID-related dip. Over the years, a shift in drug classes occurred. Once very popular drugs like penicillins and tetracyclines are no longer as important. Conversely, aminopenicillins and cephalosporins have become more relevant. Particularly, the TOP5 drugs have seen an increasing proportion. DDD costs have decreased in most substance classes over time. There is a strong association between decreasing costs and rising prescriptions. Falling costs have a stronger immediate impact on prescriptions that rising costs. When costs are very low, drugs might be prescribed excessively. Supply bottlenecks can also result. The main prescribers are mainly in primary care. Their share of prescription has changed little over the years, but is decreasing regarding total consumption. In comparison to other European countries, Germany ranks in the lower third regarding prescriptions. In most countries, the COVID pandemic has led to a reduced prescription of antibacterial drugs. In conclusion, we provided a comprehensive overview of the antibacterial drug market in Germany over the past four decades and identified costs as a major driver of antibacterial drug prescriptions. Increased costs may reduce uncritical prescription of antibacterial drugs, development of bacterial resistance, supply shortages and occurrence of adverse effects.