Development and validation of a semi-automated and unsupervised method for femur segmentation from CT.

Quantitative computed tomography (QCT)-based in silico models have demonstrated improved accuracy in predicting hip fractures with respect to the current gold standard, the areal bone mineral density. These models require that the femur bone is segmented as a first step. This task can be challenging, and in fact, it is often almost fully manual, which is time-consuming, operator-dependent, and hard to reproduce. This work proposes a semi-automated procedure for femur bone segmentation from CT images. The proposed procedure is based on the bone and joint enhancement filter and graph-cut algorithms. The semi-automated procedure performances were assessed on 10 subjects through comparison with the standard manual segmentation. Metrics based on the femur geometries and the risk of fracture assessed in silico resulting from the two segmentation procedures were considered. The average Hausdorff distance (0.03 ± 0.01 mm) and the difference union ratio (0.06 ± 0.02) metrics computed between the manual and semi-automated segmentations were significantly higher than those computed within the manual segmentations (0.01 ± 0.01 mm and 0.03 ± 0.02). Besides, a blind qualitative evaluation revealed that the semi-automated procedure was significantly superior (p < 0.001) to the manual one in terms of fidelity to the CT. As for the hip fracture risk assessed in silico starting from both segmentations, no significant difference emerged between the two (R2 = 0.99). The proposed semi-automated segmentation procedure overcomes the manual one, shortening the segmentation time and providing a better segmentation. The method could be employed within CT-based in silico methodologies and to segment large volumes of images to train and test fully automated and supervised segmentation methods.

Effectiveness of Radiomic ZOT Features in the Automated Discrimination of Oncocytoma from Clear Cell Renal Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Benign renal tumors, such as renal oncocytoma (RO), can be erroneously diagnosed as malignant renal cell carcinomas (RCC), because of their similar imaging features. Computer-aided systems leveraging radiomic features can be used to better discriminate benign renal tumors from the malignant ones. The purpose of this work was to build a machine learning model to distinguish RO from clear cell RCC (ccRCC). METHOD: We collected CT images of 77 patients, with 30 cases of RO (39%) and 47 cases of ccRCC (61%). Radiomic features were extracted both from the tumor volumes identified by the clinicians and from the tumor's zone of transition (ZOT). We used a genetic algorithm to perform feature selection, identifying the most descriptive set of features for the tumor classification. We built a decision tree classifier to distinguish between ROs and ccRCCs. We proposed two versions of the pipeline: in the first one, the feature selection was performed before the splitting of the data, while in the second one, the feature selection was performed after, i.e., on the training data only. We evaluated the efficiency of the two pipelines in cancer classification. RESULTS: The ZOT features were found to be the most predictive by the genetic algorithm. The pipeline with the feature selection performed on the whole dataset obtained an average ROC AUC score of 0.87 ± 0.09. The second pipeline, in which the feature selection was performed on the training data only, obtained an average ROC AUC score of 0.62 ± 0.17. CONCLUSIONS: The obtained results confirm the efficiency of ZOT radiomic features in capturing the renal tumor characteristics. We showed that there is a significant difference in the performances of the two proposed pipelines, highlighting how some already published radiomic analyses could be too optimistic about the real generalization capabilities of the models.

Assessing the effects of air temperature and rainfall on malaria incidence: an epidemiological study across Rwanda and Uganda.

We investigate the short-term effects of air temperature, rainfall, and socioeconomic indicators on malaria incidence across Rwanda and Uganda from 2002 to 2011. Delayed and nonlinear effects of temperature and rainfall data are estimated using generalised additive mixed models with a distributed lag nonlinear specification. A time series cross-validation algorithm is implemented to select the best subset of socioeconomic predictors and to define the degree of smoothing of the weather variables. Our findings show that trends in malaria incidence agree well with variations in both temperature and rainfall in both countries, although factors other than climate seem to play an important role too. The estimated short-term effects of air temperature and precipitation are nonlinear, in agreement with previous research and the ecology of the disease. These effects are robust to the effects of temporal correlation. The effects of socioeconomic data are difficult to ascertain and require further evaluation with longer time series. Climate-informed models had lower error estimates compared to models with no climatic information in 77 and 60% of the districts in Rwanda and Uganda, respectively. Our results highlight the importance of using climatic information in the analysis of malaria surveillance data, and show potential for the development of climate informed malaria early warning systems.

A Generalized Deforestation and Land-Use Change Scenario Generator for Use in Climate Modelling Studies.

A new deforestation and land-use change scenario generator model (FOREST-SAGE) is presented that is designed to interface directly with dynamic vegetation models used in latest generation earth system models. The model requires a regional-scale scenario for aggregate land-use change that may be time-dependent, provided by observational studies or by regional land-use change/economic models for future projections. These land-use categories of the observations/economic model are first translated into equivalent plant function types used by the particular vegetation model, and then FOREST-SAGE disaggregates the regional-scale scenario to the local grid-scale of the earth system model using a set of risk-rules based on factors such as proximity to transport networks, distance weighted population density, forest fragmentation and presence of protected areas and logging concessions. These rules presently focus on the conversion of forest to agriculture and pasture use, but could be generalized to other land use change conversions. After introducing the model, an evaluation of its performance is shown for the land-cover changes that have occurred in the Central African Basin from 2001-2010 using retrievals from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Field data. The model is able to broadly reproduce the spatial patterns of forest cover change observed by MODIS, and the use of the local-scale risk factors enables FOREST-SAGE to improve land use change patterns considerably relative to benchmark scenarios used in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project integrations. The uncertainty to the various risk factors is investigated using an ensemble of investigations, and it is shown that the model is sensitive to the population density, forest fragmentation and reforestation factors specified.