Predictions for functional outcome and mortality in acute ischaemic stroke following successful endovascular thrombectomy.

Background: Accurate outcome predictions for patients who had ischaemic stroke with successful reperfusion after endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) may improve patient treatment and care. Our study developed prediction models for key clinical outcomes in patients with successful reperfusion following EVT in an Australian population. Methods: The study included all patients who had ischaemic stroke with occlusion in the proximal anterior cerebral circulation and successful reperfusion post-EVT over a 7-year period. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox regression models, incorporating bootstrap and multiple imputation techniques, were used to identify predictors and develop models for key clinical outcomes: 3-month poor functional status; 30-day, 1-year and 3-year mortality; survival time. Results: A total of 978 patients were included in the analyses. Predictors associated with one or more poor outcomes include: older age (ORs for every 5-year increase: 1.22-1.40), higher premorbid functional modified Rankin Scale (ORs: 1.31-1.75), higher baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (ORs: 1.05-1.07) score, higher blood glucose (ORs: 1.08-1.19), larger core volume (ORs for every 10 mL increase: 1.10-1.22), pre-EVT thrombolytic therapy (ORs: 0.44-0.56), history of heart failure (outcome: 30-day mortality, OR=1.87), interhospital transfer (ORs: 1.42 to 1.53), non-rural/regional stroke onset (outcome: functional dependency, OR=0.64), longer onset-to-groin puncture time (outcome: 3-year mortality, OR=1.08) and atherosclerosis-caused stroke (outcome: functional dependency, OR=1.68). The models using these predictors demonstrated moderate predictive abilities (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve range: 0.752-0.796). Conclusion: Our models using real-world predictors assessed at hospital admission showed satisfactory performance in predicting poor functional outcomes and short-term and long-term mortality for patients with successful reperfusion following EVT. These can be used to inform EVT treatment provision and consent.

Prognostic modeling in early rheumatoid arthritis: reconsidering the predictive role of disease activity scores.

OBJECTIVE: In this prospective cohort study, we provide several prognostic models to predict functional status as measured by the modified Health Assessment Questionnaire (mHAQ). The early adoption of the treat-to-target strategy in this cohort offered a unique opportunity to identify predictive factors using longitudinal data across 20 years. METHODS: A cohort of 397 patients with early RA was used to develop statistical models to predict mHAQ score measured at baseline, 12 months, and 18 months post diagnosis, as well as serially measured mHAQ. Demographic data, clinical measures, autoantibodies, medication use, comorbid conditions, and baseline mHAQ were considered as predictors. RESULTS: The discriminative performance of models was comparable to previous work, with an area under the receiver operator curve ranging from 0.64 to 0.88. The most consistent predictive variable was baseline mHAQ. Patient-reported outcomes including early morning stiffness, tender joint count (TJC), fatigue, pain, and patient global assessment were positively predictive of a higher mHAQ at baseline and longitudinally, as was the physician global assessment and C-reactive protein. When considering future function, a higher TJC predicted persistent disability while a higher swollen joint count predicted functional improvements with treatment. CONCLUSION: In our study of mHAQ prediction in RA patients receiving treat-to-target therapy, patient-reported outcomes were most consistently predictive of function. Patients with high disease activity due predominantly to tenderness scores rather than swelling may benefit from less aggressive treatment escalation and an emphasis on non-pharmacological therapies, allowing for a more personalized approach to treatment. Key Points • Long-term use of the treat-to-target strategy in this patient cohort offers a unique opportunity to develop prognostic models for functional outcomes using extensive longitudinal data. • Patient reported outcomes were more consistent predictors of function than traditional prognostic markers. • Tender joint count and swollen joint count had discordant relationships with future function, adding weight to the possibility that disease activity may better guide treatment when the components are considered separately.

Machine learning and deep learning predictive models for long-term prognosis in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Machine learning and deep learning models have been increasingly used to predict long-term disease progression in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We aimed to summarise the performance of such prognostic models for COPD, compare their relative performances, and identify key research gaps. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to compare the performance of machine learning and deep learning prognostic models and identify pathways for future research. We searched PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Library, ProQuest, Scopus, and Web of Science from database inception to April 6, 2023, for studies in English using machine learning or deep learning to predict patient outcomes at least 6 months after initial clinical presentation in those with COPD. We included studies comprising human adults aged 18-90 years and allowed for any input modalities. We reported area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) with 95% CI for predictions of mortality, exacerbation, and decline in forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1). We reported the degree of interstudy heterogeneity using Cochran's Q test (significant heterogeneity was defined as p≤0·10 or I2>50%). Reporting quality was assessed using the TRIPOD checklist and a risk-of-bias assessment was done using the PROBAST checklist. This study was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42022323052). FINDINGS: We identified 3620 studies in the initial search. 18 studies were eligible, and, of these, 12 used conventional machine learning and six used deep learning models. Seven models analysed exacerbation risk, with only six reporting AUC and 95% CI on internal validation datasets (pooled AUC 0·77 [95% CI 0·69-0·85]) and there was significant heterogeneity (I2 97%, p<0·0001). 11 models analysed mortality risk, with only six reporting AUC and 95% CI on internal validation datasets (pooled AUC 0·77 [95% CI 0·74-0·80]) with significant degrees of heterogeneity (I2 60%, p=0·027). Two studies assessed decline in lung function and were unable to be pooled. Machine learning and deep learning models did not show significant improvement over pre-existing disease severity scores in predicting exacerbations (p=0·24). Three studies directly compared machine learning models against pre-existing severity scores for predicting mortality and pooled performance did not differ (p=0·57). Of the five studies that performed external validation, performance was worse than or equal to regression models. Incorrect handling of missing data, not reporting model uncertainty, and use of datasets that were too small relative to the number of predictive features included provided the largest risks of bias. INTERPRETATION: There is limited evidence that conventional machine learning and deep learning prognostic models demonstrate superior performance to pre-existing disease severity scores. More rigorous adherence to reporting guidelines would reduce the risk of bias in future studies and aid study reproducibility. FUNDING: None.

Fostering an inclusive workplace for LGBTQIA+ people in radiology and radiation oncology.

The inclusion and celebration of LGBTQIA+ staff in radiology and radiation oncology departments is crucial in developing a diverse and thriving workplace. Despite the substantial social change in Australia, LGBTQIA+ people still experience harassment and exclusion, negatively impacting their well-being and workplace productivity. We need to be proactive in creating policies that are properly implemented and translate to a safe and inclusive space for marginalised groups. In this work, we outline the role we all can play in creating inclusive environments, for both individuals and leaders working in radiology and radiation oncology. We can learn how to avoid normative assumptions about gender and sexuality, respect people's identities and speak out against witnessed discrimination or slights. Robust policies are needed to protect LGBTQIA+ members from discrimination and provide equal access across other pertinent parts of work life such as leave entitlements, representation in data collection and safe bathroom access. We all deserve to feel safe and respected at work and further effort is needed to ensure this extends to LGBTQIA+ staff in the radiology and radiation oncology workforces.

Artificial intelligence and the future of radiographic scoring in rheumatoid arthritis: a viewpoint.

Rheumatoid arthritis is an autoimmune condition that predominantly affects the synovial joints, causing joint destruction, pain, and disability. Historically, the standard for measuring the long-term efficacy of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs has been the assessment of plain radiographs with scoring techniques that quantify joint damage. However, with significant improvements in therapy, current radiographic scoring systems may no longer be fit for purpose for the milder spectrum of disease seen today. We argue that artificial intelligence is an apt solution to further improve upon radiographic scoring, as it can readily learn to recognize subtle patterns in imaging data to not only improve efficiency, but can also increase the sensitivity to variation in mild disease. Current work in the area demonstrates the feasibility of automating scoring but is yet to take full advantage of the strengths of artificial intelligence. By fully leveraging the power of artificial intelligence, faster and more sensitive scoring could enable the ongoing development of effective treatments for patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

Pre-thrombectomy prognostic prediction of large-vessel ischemic stroke using machine learning: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Introduction: Machine learning (ML) methods are being increasingly applied to prognostic prediction for stroke patients with large vessel occlusion (LVO) treated with endovascular thrombectomy. This systematic review aims to summarize ML-based pre-thrombectomy prognostic models for LVO stroke and identify key research gaps. Methods: Literature searches were performed in Embase, PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus. Meta-analyses of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of ML models were conducted to synthesize model performance. Results: Sixteen studies describing 19 models were eligible. The predicted outcomes include functional outcome at 90 days, successful reperfusion, and hemorrhagic transformation. Functional outcome was analyzed by 10 conventional ML models (pooled AUC=0.81, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.77-0.85, AUC range: 0.68-0.93) and four deep learning (DL) models (pooled AUC=0.75, 95% CI: 0.70-0.81, AUC range: 0.71-0.81). Successful reperfusion was analyzed by three conventional ML models (pooled AUC=0.72, 95% CI: 0.56-0.88, AUC range: 0.55-0.88) and one DL model (AUC=0.65, 95% CI: 0.62-0.68). Conclusions: Conventional ML and DL models have shown variable performance in predicting post-treatment outcomes of LVO without generally demonstrating superiority compared to existing prognostic scores. Most models were developed using small datasets, lacked solid external validation, and at high risk of potential bias. There is considerable scope to improve study design and model performance. The application of ML and DL methods to improve the prediction of prognosis in LVO stroke, while promising, remains nascent. Systematic review registration: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42021266524, identifier CRD42021266524.

Artificial Intelligence and Deep Learning for Rheumatologists.

Deep learning has emerged as the leading method in machine learning, spawning a rapidly growing field of academic research and commercial applications across medicine. Deep learning could have particular relevance to rheumatology if correctly utilized. The greatest benefits of deep learning methods are seen with unstructured data frequently found in rheumatology, such as images and text, where traditional machine learning methods have struggled to unlock the trove of information held within these data formats. The basis for this success comes from the ability of deep learning to learn the structure of the underlying data. It is no surprise that the first areas of medicine that have started to experience impact from deep learning heavily rely on interpreting visual data, such as triaging radiology workflows and computer-assisted colonoscopy. Applications in rheumatology are beginning to emerge, with recent successes in areas as diverse as detecting joint erosions on plain radiography, predicting future rheumatoid arthritis disease activity, and identifying halo sign on temporal artery ultrasound. Given the important role deep learning methods are likely to play in the future of rheumatology, it is imperative that rheumatologists understand the methods and assumptions that underlie the deep learning algorithms in widespread use today, their limitations and the landscape of deep learning research that will inform algorithm development, and clinical decision support tools of the future. The best applications of deep learning in rheumatology must be informed by the clinical experience of rheumatologists, so that algorithms can be developed to tackle the most relevant clinical problems.