Your browser doesn't support javascript.
loading
Mostrar: 20 | 50 | 100
Resultados 1 - 20 de 419
Filtrar
1.
J Hosp Infect ; 123: 126-134, 2022 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35122887

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: It is difficult to improve compliance with hand hygiene (HH), and underlying behaviours are not clearly understood among healthcare workers. AIM: To study HH behaviours among healthcare workers. METHODS: This was a prospective observational study. A Sanibit electronic HH system was installed in a 10-bed surgical intensive care unit (ICU) that detected HH opportunities automatically when healthcare workers entered or exited a patient room, and tracked the HH compliance of healthcare workers. The HH compliance rate and patient contact time were calculated and analysed at both ICU level and individual level over time. FINDINGS: In total, 27,692 HH opportunities were recorded over this 6-month trial period. The HH compliance rate was significantly higher when healthcare workers exited patient rooms than when they entered patient rooms (37.3% vs 26.1%; P<0.001). Full, partial and total HH compliance rates of 'quick in and quick out' (in room for <3 s) events were significantly lower than those of 'long in and long out' (in room for >30 s) events (23.45% vs 32.77%, 21.44% vs 35.03% and 44.88% vs 67.81%, respectively; P<0.001). There were also significant differences in HH compliance between individual healthcare workers (P<0.001). No significant differences in overall HH compliance rate and patient contact time were found between hours of the day or days of the week, except partial HH compliance rates. CONCLUSION: Patterns of HH behaviours among healthcare workers are complex and variable, which could facilitate targeted and personalized interventions to improve HH compliance. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT03948672.


Assuntos
Infecção Hospitalar , Higiene das Mãos , Infecção Hospitalar/prevenção & controle , Eletrônica , Fidelidade a Diretrizes , Pessoal de Saúde , Humanos , Controle de Infecções , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva
2.
J Autism Dev Disord ; 52(12): 5308-5320, 2022 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34981308

RESUMO

This paper describes a process to define a comprehensive list of exemplars for seven core Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM) diagnostic criteria for autism spectrum disorder (ASD), and report on interrater reliability in applying these exemplars to determine ASD case classification. Clinicians completed an iterative process to map specific exemplars from the CDC Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network criteria for ASD surveillance, DSM-5 text, and diagnostic assessments to each of the core DSM-5 ASD criteria. Clinicians applied the diagnostic exemplars to child behavioral descriptions in existing evaluation records to establish initial reliability standards and then for blinded clinician review in one site (phase 1) and for two ADDM Network surveillance years (phase 2). Interrater reliability for each of the DSM-5 diagnostic categories and overall ASD classification was high (defined as very good .60-.79 to excellent ≥ .80 Kappa values) across sex, race/ethnicity, and cognitive levels for both phases. Classification of DSM-5 ASD by mapping specific exemplars from evaluation records by a diverse group of clinician raters is feasible and reliable. This framework provides confidence in the consistency of prevalence classifications of ASD and may be further applied to improve consistency of ASD diagnoses in clinical settings.


Assuntos
Transtorno do Espectro Autista , Manual Diagnóstico e Estatístico de Transtornos Mentais , Seleção de Pacientes , Criança , Humanos , Transtorno do Espectro Autista/diagnóstico , Transtorno do Espectro Autista/epidemiologia , Vigilância da População , Prevalência , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes
4.
Burns ; 47(3): 576-586, 2021 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32861535

RESUMO

Despite criteria to guide intubation from the American Burn Association (ABA), concerns remain regarding over-intubation of burns patients. The purpose of this study was to review appropriateness of intubation at a UK regional burns centre over a 5-year period. A 5-year retrospective review of adult patients admitted to the Manchester Burns Centre who underwent intubation at or prior to admission was performed. Intubations for non-burn indications or burns >40%TBSA were excluded. Patient demographic and burn characteristics data were extracted from medical records. Indications for intubation were compared to ABA and Denver criteria. 47 patients were identified, of which 40 met inclusion criteria for analysis. 72.5% and 95% of these patients met ABA or Denver criteria respectively. 30.8% of patients were extubated within 48 h. 50% patients extubated within 48 h had ≤1 indication for intubation or negative laryngoscopy. Complications related to intubation and ventilation were noted in 37.5% of patients, with ventilation associated pneumonia (VAP) being the most common occurring in 27.5%. 95% of patients fulfilled recognised criteria for intubation. However, 30% were extubated within 48 h, suggesting potentially avoidable intubation. This study suggests current intubation criteria may over-estimate risk of airway compromise and supports results from non-UK studies that a proportion of patients may be suitable for close observation rather than early intubation.


Assuntos
Unidades de Queimados/estatística & dados numéricos , Queimaduras/terapia , Intubação Intratraqueal/estatística & dados numéricos , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Unidades de Queimados/organização & administração , Queimaduras/epidemiologia , Queimaduras/mortalidade , Inglaterra/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Intubação Intratraqueal/métodos , Laringoscopia/instrumentação , Laringoscopia/métodos , Tempo de Internação/estatística & dados numéricos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos
5.
R Soc Open Sci ; 7(4): 191739, 2020 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32431872

RESUMO

Different patterns in the incidence of road accidents are revealed when considering areas with increased levels of urbanization. To understand these patterns, road accident data from England and Wales is explored. In particular, the data are used to (i) generate time series for comparison of the incidence of road accidents in urban as opposed to rural areas, (ii) analyse the relationship between the number of road accidents and the population size of a set of urban areas, and (iii) model the likelihood of suffering an accident in an urban area and its dependence with population size. It is observed that minor and serious accidents are more frequent in urban areas, whereas fatal accidents are more likely in rural areas. It is also shown that, generally, the number of accidents in an urban area depends on population size superlinearly, with this superlinear behaviour becoming stronger for lower degrees of severity. Finally, given an accident in an urban area, the probability that the accident is fatal or serious decreases with population size and the probability that it is minor, increases sublinearly. These findings promote the question as to why such behaviours exist, the answer to which will lead to more sustainable urban policies.

6.
Heliyon ; 5(11): e02832, 2019 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31844739

RESUMO

The stability of a non-classical stochastic evolution equation with impulsive and nonlocal initial conditions is examined from a general perspective. We investigate the effect of the nonlocal conditions on the well-posedness and the stability of the solution. We show that the concept of Ulam-type stability holds for this class of equation under the given condition ( 1 - M L η ξ ) < 1 . An example is also provided to support our claim.

7.
R Soc Open Sci ; 6(11): 190619, 2019 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31827823

RESUMO

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is widely used for Bayesian inference in models of complex systems. Performance, however, is often unsatisfactory in models with many latent variables due to so-called poor mixing, necessitating the development of application-specific implementations. This paper introduces 'posterior-based proposals' (PBPs), a new type of MCMC update applicable to a huge class of statistical models (whose conditional dependence structures are represented by directed acyclic graphs). PBPs generate large joint updates in parameter and latent variable space, while retaining good acceptance rates (typically 33%). Evaluation against other approaches (from standard Gibbs/random walk updates to state-of-the-art Hamiltonian and particle MCMC methods) was carried out for widely varying model types: an individual-based model for disease diagnostic test data, a financial stochastic volatility model, a mixed model used in statistical genetics and a population model used in ecology. While different methods worked better or worse in different scenarios, PBPs were found to be either near to the fastest or significantly faster than the next best approach (by up to a factor of 10). PBPs, therefore, represent an additional general purpose technique that can be usefully applied in a wide variety of contexts.

8.
Anim Genet ; 49(2): 103-109, 2018 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29368428

RESUMO

Genetic selection of cattle more resistant to bovine tuberculosis (bTB) may offer a complementary control strategy. Hypothesising underlying non-additive genetic variation, we present an approach using genome-wide high density markers to identify genomic loci with dominance effects on bTB resistance and to test previously published regions with heterozygote advantage in bTB. Our data comprised 1151 Holstein-Friesian cows from Northern Ireland, confirmed bTB cases and controls, genotyped with the 700K Illumina BeadChip. Genome-wide markers were tested for associations between heterozygosity and bTB status using marker-based relationships. Results were tested for robustness against genetic structure, and the genotypic frequencies of a significant locus were tested for departures from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. Genomic regions identified in our study and in previous publications were tested for dominance effects. Genotypic effects were estimated through ASReml mixed models. A SNP (rs43032684) on chromosome 6 was significant at the chromosome-wide level, explaining 1.7% of the phenotypic variance. In the controls, there were fewer heterozygotes for rs43032684 (P < 0.01) with the genotypic values suggesting that heterozygosity confers a heterozygote disadvantage. The region surrounding rs43032684 had a significant dominance effect (P < 0.01). SNP rs43032684 resides within a pseudogene with a parental gene involved in macrophage response to infection and within a copy-number-variation region previously associated with nematode resistance. No dominance effect was found for the region on chromosome 11, as indicated by a previous candidate region bTB study. These findings require further validation with large-scale data.


Assuntos
Bovinos/genética , Resistência à Doença/genética , Genética Populacional , Tuberculose Bovina/genética , Animais , Bovinos/microbiologia , Indústria de Laticínios , Estudo de Associação Genômica Ampla/veterinária , Genótipo , Heterozigoto , Irlanda , Modelos Genéticos , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único
9.
BMC Genomics ; 18(1): 477, 2017 06 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28646863

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Susceptibility to Mycobacterium bovis infection in cattle is governed in part by host genetics. However, cattle diagnosed as infected with M. bovis display varying signs of pathology. The variation in host response to infection could represent a continuum since time of exposure or distinct outcomes due to differing pathogen handling. The relationships between host genetics and variation in host response and pathological sequelae following M. bovis infection were explored by genotyping 1966 Holstein-Friesian dairy cows at 538,231 SNPs with three distinct phenotypes. These were: single intradermal cervical comparative tuberculin (SICCT) test positives with visible lesions (VLs), SICCT-positives with undetected visible lesions (NVLs) and matched controls SICCT-negative on multiple occasions. RESULTS: Regional heritability mapping identified three loci associated with the NVL phenotype on chromosomes 17, 22 and 23, distinct to the region on chromosome 13 associated with the VL phenotype. The region on chromosome 23 was at genome-wide significance and candidate genes overlapping the mapped window included members of the bovine leukocyte antigen class IIb region, a complex known for its role in immunity and disease resistance. Chromosome heritability analysis attributed variance to six and thirteen chromosomes for the VL and NVL phenotypes, respectively, and four of these chromosomes were found to explain a proportion of the phenotypic variation for both the VL and NVL phenotype. By grouping the M. bovis outcomes (VLs and NVLs) variance was attributed to nine chromosomes. When contrasting the two M. bovis infection outcomes (VLs vs NVLs) nine chromosomes were found to harbour heritable variation. Regardless of the case phenotype under investigation, chromosome heritability did not exceed 8% indicating that the genetic control of bTB resistance consists of variants of small to moderate effect situated across many chromosomes of the bovine genome. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest the host genetics of M. bovis infection outcomes is governed by distinct and overlapping genetic variants. Thus, variation in the pathology of M. bovis infected cattle may be partly genetically determined and indicative of different host responses or pathogen handling. There may be at least three distinct outcomes following M. bovis exposure in dairy cattle: resistance to infection, infection resulting in pathology or no detectable pathology.


Assuntos
Mapeamento Cromossômico , Indústria de Laticínios , Variação Genética , Mycobacterium bovis/fisiologia , Tuberculose Osteoarticular/genética , Animais , Bovinos , Cromossomos de Mamíferos/genética , Feminino , Estudo de Associação Genômica Ampla , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único
10.
J Dairy Sci ; 100(2): 1272-1281, 2017 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27939547

RESUMO

Genetic evaluations for resistance to bovine tuberculosis (bTB) were calculated based on British national data including individual animal tuberculin skin test results, postmortem examination (presence of bTB lesions and bacteriological culture for Mycobacterium bovis), animal movement and location information, production history, and pedigree records. Holstein cows with identified sires in herds with bTB breakdowns (new herd incidents) occurring between the years 2000 and 2014 were considered. In the first instance, cows with a positive reaction to the skin test and a positive postmortem examination were defined as infected. Values of 0 and 1 were assigned to healthy and infected animal records, respectively. Data were analyzed with mixed models. Linear and logit function heritability estimates were 0.092 and 0.172, respectively. In subsequent analyses, breakdowns were split into 2-mo intervals to better model time of exposure and infection in the contemporary group. Intervals with at least one infected individual were retained and multiple intervals within the same breakdown were included. Healthy animal records were assigned values of 0, and infected records a value of 1 in the interval of infection and values reflecting a diminishing probability of infection in the preceding intervals. Heritability and repeatability estimates were 0.115 and 0.699, respectively. Reliabilities and across time stability of the genetic evaluation were improved with the interval model. Subsequently, 2 more definitions of "infected" were analyzed with the interval model: (1) all positive skin test reactors regardless of postmortem examination, and (2) all positive skin test reactors plus nonreactors with positive postmortem examination. Estimated heritability was 0.085 and 0.089, respectively; corresponding repeatability estimates were 0.701 and 0.697. Genetic evaluation reliabilities and across time stability did not change. Correlations of genetic evaluations for bTB with other traits in the current breeding goal were mostly not different from zero. Correlation with the UK Profitable Lifetime Index was moderate, significant, and favorable. Results demonstrated the feasibility of a national genetic evaluation for bTB resistance. Selection for enhanced resistance will have a positive effect on profitability and no antagonistic effects on current breeding goal traits. Official genetic evaluations are now based on the interval model and the last bTB trait definition.


Assuntos
Mycobacterium bovis , Tuberculose Bovina , Animais , Cruzamento , Bovinos , Feminino , Linhagem , Fenótipo
11.
Nanoscale ; 8(36): 16499-510, 2016 Sep 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27604569

RESUMO

Stress and strain in thin films of Pr0.1Ce0.9O2-δ, supported on yttria stabilized zirconia (YSZ) and sapphire substrates, induced by large deviations from oxygen stoichiometry (δ = 0) were investigated by in situ high temperature X-ray diffraction and wafer curvature studies. The measured stresses and strains were correlated with change in δ, measured in situ using optical transmission spectroscopy of defect centers in the films and compared with prior chemical capacitance studies. The coefficient of chemical expansion and elastic modulus values for the films were found to be 18% less than, and 16% greater than in the bulk, respectively. Irreproducible stress and strain during cycling on YSZ substrates was observed and related to microstructural changes as observed by TEM. The enthalpy of defect formation was found to be similar for films supported on sapphire and YSZ, and appeared to decrease with tensile stress, and increase with compressive stress. Larger stresses observed for YSZ supported films as compared to sapphire supported films were found and accounted for by the difference in film orientations.

12.
Parasitology ; 143(12): 1509-31, 2016 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27356626

RESUMO

In reproducing ewes, a periparturient breakdown of immunity is often observed to result in increased fecal egg excretion, making them the main source of infection for their immunologically naive lambs. In this study, we expanded a simulation model previously developed for growing lambs to explore the impact of the genotype (performance and resistance traits) and host nutrition on the performance and parasitism of both growing lambs and reproducing ewes naturally infected with Teladorsagia circumcincta. Our model accounted for nutrient-demanding phases, such as gestation and lactation, and included a supplementary module to manage the age structure of the ewe flock. The model was validated by comparison with published data. Because model parameters were unknown or poorly estimated, detailed sensitivity analysis of the model was performed for the sheep mortality and the level of infection, following a preliminary screening step. The parameters with the greatest effect on parasite-related outputs were those driving animal growth and milk yield. Our model enables different parasite-control strategies (host nutrition, breeding for resistance and anthelmintic treatments) to be assessed on the long term in a sheep flock. To optimize in silico exploration, the parameters highlighted by the sensitivity analysis should be refined with real data.


Assuntos
Interações Hospedeiro-Parasita , Enteropatias Parasitárias/veterinária , Doenças dos Ovinos/parasitologia , Trichostrongyloidea/isolamento & purificação , Tricostrongiloidíase/veterinária , Animais , Anti-Helmínticos/uso terapêutico , Genótipo , Enteropatias Parasitárias/parasitologia , Lactação , Reprodução , Ovinos , Trichostrongyloidea/classificação , Trichostrongyloidea/genética , Tricostrongiloidíase/parasitologia
13.
Ticks Tick Borne Dis ; 7(3): 487-97, 2016 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26897394

RESUMO

Ticks and tick-borne diseases are among the main causes of economic loss in the South African cattle industry through high morbidity and mortality rates. Concerns of the general public regarding chemical residues may tarnish their perceptions of food safety and environmental health when the husbandry of cattle includes frequent use of acaricides to manage ticks. The primary objective of this study was to identify single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers associated with host resistance to ticks in South African Nguni cattle. Tick count data were collected monthly from 586 Nguni cattle reared in four herds under natural grazing conditions over a period of two years. The counts were recorded for six species of ticks attached in eight anatomical locations on the animals and were summed by species and anatomical location. This gave rise to 63 measured phenotypes or traits, with results for 12 of these traits being reported here. Tick count (x) data were transformed using log10(x+1) and the resulting values were examined for normality. DNA was extracted from hair and blood samples and was genotyped using the Illumina BovineSNP50 assay. After quality control (call rate >90%, minor allele frequency >0.02), 40,436 SNPs were retained for analysis. Genetic parameters were estimated and association analysis for tick resistance was carried out using two approaches: a genome-wide association (GWA) analysis using the GenABEL package and a regional heritability mapping (RHM) analysis. The Bonferroni genome-wide (P<0.05) corrected significance threshold was 1.24×10(-6), with 2.47×10(-5) as the suggestive significance threshold (P<0.10) (i.e., one false positive per genome scan) in the GWA analysis. Likelihood ratio test (LRT) thresholds for genome-wide and suggestive significance were 13.5 and 9.15 for the RHM analysis. Six ixodid tick species were identified, with Amblyomma hebraeum (the vector for Heartwater disease) being the dominant species. Heritability estimates (h(2)) from the fitted animal and sire models ranged from 0.02±0.00 to 0.17±0.04 for the transformed tick count data. Several genomic regions harbouring quantitative trait loci (QTL) were identified for different tick count traits by both the GWA and RHM approaches. Three genome-wide significant regions on chromosomes 7, 10 and 19 were identified for total tick count on the head, total body A. hebraeum tick count and total A. hebraeum on the perineum region, respectively. Additional regions significant at the suggestive level were identified on chromosomes 1, 3, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 17, 19 and 26 for several of the traits. The GWA approach identified more genomic regions than did the RHM approach. The chromosomal regions identified here as harbouring QTL underlying variation in tick burden form the basis for further analyses to identify specific candidate genes and polymorphisms related to cattle tick resistance and provide the potential for marker-assisted selection in Nguni cattle.


Assuntos
Doenças dos Bovinos/imunologia , Resistência à Doença/genética , Locos de Características Quantitativas , Característica Quantitativa Herdável , Infestações por Carrapato/imunologia , Infestações por Carrapato/veterinária , Alelos , Animais , Bovinos , Doenças dos Bovinos/genética , Doenças dos Bovinos/parasitologia , Mapeamento Cromossômico , Cromossomos de Mamíferos/química , DNA/genética , DNA/imunologia , Feminino , Frequência do Gene , Estudo de Associação Genômica Ampla , Genótipo , Masculino , Carga Parasitária , Fenótipo , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único , Rhipicephalus/classificação , Rhipicephalus/genética , África do Sul , Infestações por Carrapato/genética , Infestações por Carrapato/parasitologia
14.
Vet Microbiol ; 181(1-2): 2-7, 2015 Dec 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26260859

RESUMO

This paper considers genetic resistance to infectious disease in sheep, with appropriate comparison with goats, and explores how such variation may be used to assist in disease control. Many studies have attempted to quantify the extent to which host animals differ genetically in their resistance to infection or in the disease side-effects of infection, using either recorded animal pedigrees or information from genetic markers to quantify the genetic variation. Across all livestock species, whenever studies are sufficiently well powered, then genetic variation in disease resistance is usually seen and such evidence is presented here for three infections or diseases of importance to sheep, namely mastitis, foot rot and scrapie. A further class of diseases of importance in most small ruminant production systems, gastrointestinal nematode infections, is outside the scope of this review. Existence of genetic variation implies the opportunity, at least in principle, to select animals for increased resistance, with such selection ideally used as part of an integrated control strategy. For each of the diseases under consideration, evidence for genetic variation is presented, the role of selection as an aid to disease control is outlined and possible side effects of selection in terms of effects in performance, effects on resistance to other diseases and potential parasite/pathogen coevolution risks are considered. In all cases, the conclusion is drawn that selection should work and it should be beneficial, with the main challenge being to define cost effective selection protocols that are attractive to sheep farmers.


Assuntos
Resistência à Doença/genética , Pododermatite Necrótica dos Ovinos/genética , Mastite/veterinária , Scrapie/genética , Seleção Artificial/genética , Doenças dos Ovinos/genética , Animais , Dichelobacter nodosus , Feminino , Marcadores Genéticos , Predisposição Genética para Doença , Variação Genética , Cabras/genética , Infecções por Bactérias Gram-Negativas , Helmintíase Animal/genética , Mastite/genética , Infecções por Nematoides/genética , Infecções por Nematoides/veterinária , Ovinos , Carneiro Doméstico/genética
15.
Heredity (Edinb) ; 115(5): 405-14, 2015 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25990876

RESUMO

Pancreas disease (PD), caused by a salmonid alphavirus (SAV), has a large negative economic and animal welfare impact on Atlantic salmon aquaculture. Evidence for genetic variation in host resistance to this disease has been reported, suggesting that selective breeding may potentially form an important component of disease control. The aim of this study was to explore the genetic architecture of resistance to PD, using survival data collected from two unrelated populations of Atlantic salmon; one challenged with SAV as fry in freshwater (POP 1) and one challenged with SAV as post-smolts in sea water (POP 2). Analyses of the binary survival data revealed a moderate-to-high heritability for host resistance to PD in both populations (fry POP 1 h(2)~0.5; post-smolt POP 2 h(2)~0.4). Subsets of both populations were genotyped for single nucleotide polymorphism markers, and six putative resistance quantitative trait loci (QTL) were identified. One of these QTL was mapped to the same location on chromosome 3 in both populations, reaching chromosome-wide significance in both the sire- and dam-based analyses in POP 1, and genome-wide significance in a combined analysis in POP 2. This independently verified QTL explains a significant proportion of host genetic variation in resistance to PD in both populations, suggesting a common underlying mechanism for genetic resistance across lifecycle stages. Markers associated with this QTL are being incorporated into selective breeding programs to improve PD resistance.


Assuntos
Resistência à Doença/genética , Doenças dos Peixes/genética , Pancreatopatias/veterinária , Locos de Características Quantitativas , Salmo salar/genética , Alphavirus , Animais , Mapeamento Cromossômico , Feminino , Doenças dos Peixes/virologia , Genética Populacional , Genótipo , Padrões de Herança , Masculino , Modelos Genéticos , Pancreatopatias/genética , Pancreatopatias/virologia , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único , Salmo salar/virologia
16.
J R Soc Interface ; 12(107)2015 Jun 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25994297

RESUMO

Bayesian statistics provides a framework for the integration of dynamic models with incomplete data to enable inference of model parameters and unobserved aspects of the system under study. An important class of dynamic models is discrete state space, continuous-time Markov processes (DCTMPs). Simulated via the Doob-Gillespie algorithm, these have been used to model systems ranging from chemistry to ecology to epidemiology. A new type of proposal, termed 'model-based proposal' (MBP), is developed for the efficient implementation of Bayesian inference in DCTMPs using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). This new method, which in principle can be applied to any DCTMP, is compared (using simple epidemiological SIS and SIR models as easy to follow exemplars) to a standard MCMC approach and a recently proposed particle MCMC (PMCMC) technique. When measurements are made on a single-state variable (e.g. the number of infected individuals in a population during an epidemic), model-based proposal MCMC (MBP-MCMC) is marginally faster than PMCMC (by a factor of 2-8 for the tests performed), and significantly faster than the standard MCMC scheme (by a factor of 400 at least). However, when model complexity increases and measurements are made on more than one state variable (e.g. simultaneously on the number of infected individuals in spatially separated subpopulations), MBP-MCMC is significantly faster than PMCMC (more than 100-fold for just four subpopulations) and this difference becomes increasingly large.


Assuntos
Cadeias de Markov , Modelos Teóricos
17.
Sci Rep ; 4: 6355, 2014 Sep 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25213626

RESUMO

While much recent research has focused on understanding isolated cascades of networks, less attention has been given to dynamical processes on networks exhibiting repeated cascades of opposing influence. An example of this is the dynamic behaviour of financial markets where cascades of buying and selling can occur, even over short timescales. To model these phenomena, a stochastic pulse-coupled oscillator network with upper and lower thresholds is described and analysed. Numerical confirmation of asynchronous and synchronous regimes of the system is presented, along with analytical identification of the fixed point state vector of the asynchronous mean field system. A lower bound for the finite system mean field critical value of network coupling probability is found that separates the asynchronous and synchronous regimes. For the low-dimensional mean field system, a closed-form equation is found for cascade size, in terms of the network coupling probability. Finally, a description of how this model can be applied to interacting agents in a financial market is provided.

18.
Anaesthesia ; 69(12): 1322-30, 2014 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25040430

RESUMO

Peripherally inserted central catheters are often positioned blindly in the central circulation, and this may result in high malposition rates, especially in critically ill patients. Recently, a new technology has been introduced (Sherlock 3CG Tip Positioning System) that uses an electro-magnetic system to guide positioning in the superior vena cava, and then intra-cavity ECG to guide positioning at the cavo-atrial junction. In this observational study, we investigated how the Sherlock 3CG Tip Positioning System would affect peripherally inserted central catheter malposition rates, defined using a post-insertion chest radiograph, in critically ill patients. A total of 239 catheters positioned using the Sherlock 3CG Tip Positioning System were analysed. When an adequate position was defined as low superior vena cava or cavo-atrial junction, 134 catheters (56.1%; 95% CI 50-62%) were malpositioned. When an adequate position was defined as mid/low superior vena cava, cavo-atrial junction or high right atrium (≤ 2 cm from cavo-atrial junction), 49 (20.5%; 95% CI 16-26%) catheters were malpositioned. These malposition rates are significantly lower than our own historical data, which used a 'blind' anthropometric technique to guide peripherally inserted central catheter insertion.


Assuntos
Cateterismo Venoso Central/instrumentação , Cateterismo Venoso Central/métodos , Cateterismo Periférico/métodos , Cateteres Venosos Centrais , Cateterismo Periférico/efeitos adversos , Humanos , Estudos Retrospectivos
19.
J Anim Sci ; 92(7): 2905-21, 2014 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24879764

RESUMO

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is the most economically significant disease impacting pig production in North America, Europe, and Asia, causing reproductive losses such as increased rates of stillbirth and mummified piglets. The objective of this study was to explore the genetic basis of host response to the PRRS virus (PRRSV) in a commercial multiplier sow herd before and after a PRRS outbreak, using antibody response and reproductive traits. Reproductive data comprising number born alive (NBA), number alive at 24 h (NA24), number stillborn (NSB), number born mummified (NBM), proportion born dead (PBD), number born dead (NBD), number weaned (NW), and number of mortalities through weaning (MW) of 5,227 litters from 1,967 purebred Landrace sows were used along with a pedigree comprising 2,995 pigs. The PRRS outbreak date was estimated from rolling averages of farrowing traits and was used to split the data into a pre-PRRS phase and a PRRS phase. All 641 sows in the herd during the outbreak were blood sampled 46 d after the estimated outbreak date and were tested for anti-PRRSV IgG using ELISA (sample-to-positive [S/P] ratio). Genetic parameters of traits were estimated separately for the pre-PRRS and PRRS phase data sets. Sows were genotyped using the PorcineSNP60 BeadChip, and genome-wide association studies (GWAS) were performed using method Bayes B. Heritability estimates for reproductive traits ranged from 0.01 (NBM) to 0.12 (NSB) and from 0.01 (MW) to 0.12 (NBD) for the pre-PRRS and PRRS phases, respectively. S/P ratio had heritability (0.45) and strong genetic correlations with most traits, ranging from -0.72 (NBM) to 0.73 (NBA). In the pre-PRRS phase, regions associated with NSB and PBD explained 1.6% and 3% of the genetic variance, respectively. In the PRRS phase, regions associated with NBD, NSB, and S/P ratio explained 0.8%, 11%, and 50.6% of the genetic variance, respectively. For S/P ratio, 2 regions on SSC 7 (SSC7) separated by 100 Mb explained 40% of the genetic variation, including a region encompassing the major histocompatibility complex, which explained 25% of the genetic variance. These results indicate a significant genomic component associated with PRRSV antibody response and NSB in this data set. Also, the high heritability and genetic correlation estimates for S/P ratio during the PRRS phase suggest that S/P ratio could be used as an indicator of the impact of PRRS on reproductive traits.


Assuntos
Formação de Anticorpos/genética , Síndrome Respiratória e Reprodutiva Suína/genética , Animais , Surtos de Doenças/veterinária , Feminino , Estudo de Associação Genômica Ampla/veterinária , Linhagem , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único/genética , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único/fisiologia , Síndrome Respiratória e Reprodutiva Suína/imunologia , Síndrome Respiratória e Reprodutiva Suína/fisiopatologia , Gravidez , Complicações Infecciosas na Gravidez/genética , Complicações Infecciosas na Gravidez/imunologia , Complicações Infecciosas na Gravidez/fisiopatologia , Complicações Infecciosas na Gravidez/veterinária , Resultado da Gravidez/genética , Resultado da Gravidez/veterinária , Característica Quantitativa Herdável , Suínos/genética , Suínos/imunologia , Suínos/fisiologia
20.
Animal ; 8(7): 1053-61, 2014 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24804855

RESUMO

TM-QTL is a quantitative trait locus (QTL) on ovine chromosome 18 (OAR18) known to affect loin muscling in Texel sheep. Previous work suggested that its mode of inheritance is consistent with paternal polar overdominance, but this has yet to be formally demonstrated. This study used purebred Texel sheep segregating for TM-QTL to confirm its presence in the chromosomal region in which it was first reported and to determine its pattern of inheritance. To do so, this study used the first available data from a Texel flock, which included homozygote TM-QTL carriers (TM/TM; n=34) in addition to homozygote non-carriers (+/+; n=40 and, heterozygote TM-QTL-carriers inheriting TM-QTL from their sire (TM/+; n=53) or their dam (+/TM; n=17). Phenotypes included a wide range of loin muscling, carcass composition and tissue distribution traits. The presence of a QTL affecting ultrasound muscle depth on OAR18 was confirmed with a paternal QTL effect ranging from +0.54 to +2.82 mm UMD (s.e. 0.37 to 0.57 mm) across the sires segregating for TM-QTL. Loin muscle width, depth and area, loin muscle volume and dissected M. longissimus lumborum weight were significantly greater for TM/+ than +/+ lambs (+2.9% to +7.9%; P<0.05). There was significant evidence that the effect of TM-QTL on the various loin muscling traits measured was paternally polar overdominant (P<0.05). In contrast, there was an additive effect of TM-QTL on both live weight at 20 weeks and carcass weight; TM/TM animals were significantly (P<0.05) heavier than +/+ (+11.1% and +7.3%, respectively) and +/TM animals (+11.9% and +11.7%, respectively), with TM/+ intermediate. Weights of the leg, saddle and shoulder region (corrected for carcass weight) were similar in the genotypic groups. There was a tendency for lambs inheriting TM-QTL from their sire to be less fat with slightly more muscle than non-carriers. For example, carcass muscle weight measured by live animal CT-scanning was 2.8% higher in TM/TM than +/+ lambs (P<0.05), carcass muscle weight measured by carcass CT-scanning was 1.36% higher in TM/+ than +/+ lambs (P<0.05), and weight of fat trimmed from the carcass cuts was significantly lower for TM/+ than +/+ lambs (-11.2%; P<0.05). No negative effects of TM-QTL on carcass traits were found. Optimal commercial use of TM-QTL within the sheep industry would require some consideration, due to the apparently different mode of action of the two main effects of TM-QTL (on growth and muscling).


Assuntos
Composição Corporal/fisiologia , Genótipo , Locos de Características Quantitativas , Ovinos/fisiologia , Animais , Composição Corporal/genética , Mapeamento Cromossômico , Regulação da Expressão Gênica/fisiologia , Músculo Esquelético/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Músculo Esquelético/fisiologia , Ovinos/genética
SELEÇÃO DE REFERÊNCIAS
DETALHE DA PESQUISA
...