Defining mangrove-fisheries: A typology from the Perancak Estuary, Bali, Indonesia.

This study develops a definition of what mangrove-fisheries can encompass, incorporating a broad range of their possible characteristics. A detailed case study was conducted to develop a typology of mangrove-fishing in the Perancak Estuary, Bali, Indonesia, using interview surveys to investigate the fishing activities associated with mangroves. This case study demonstrated the complexity that a mangrove-fishery can entail, where fishing is connected to the mangrove forest by fishers of multiple sectors, functions, locations and temporal scales. Through a comparison with other mangrove-fishing communities in Bali, it also highlighted that mangrove-fisheries are variable even when in close proximity. With particular reference to this case study, a framework was developed as a flexible tool for identifying the multiple dimensions of a mangrove-fishery in a local context. Following this framework should encourage researchers and managers to look outside of the groups of fishers traditionally expected to benefit from mangrove fishing. This will enable the development of a broader definition of mangrove-fisheries in a site specific way. Identifying the full scope of fishers that contribute to or benefit from a mangrove-fishery is the first step towards building management measures that reflect the interests of groups of fishers that may otherwise remain under-represented. This is in line with international efforts for sustainability, especially in promoting small-scale fishers' access to sustainable resources under the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

Predictive systems ecology.

Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.

Multi-agent modelling of climate outlooks and food security on a community garden scheme in Limpopo, South Africa.

Seasonal climate outlooks provide one tool to help decision-makers allocate resources in anticipation of poor, fair or good seasons. The aim of the 'Climate Outlooks and Agent-Based Simulation of Adaptation in South Africa' project has been to investigate whether individuals, who adapt gradually to annual climate variability, are better equipped to respond to longer-term climate variability and change in a sustainable manner. Seasonal climate outlooks provide information on expected annual rainfall and thus can be used to adjust seasonal agricultural strategies to respond to expected climate conditions. A case study of smallholder farmers in a village in Vhembe district, Limpopo Province, South Africa has been used to examine how such climate outlooks might influence agricultural strategies and how this climate information can be improved to be more useful to farmers. Empirical field data has been collected using surveys, participatory approaches and computer-based knowledge elicitation tools to investigate the drivers of decision-making with a focus on the role of climate, market and livelihood needs. This data is used in an agent-based social simulation which incorporates household agents with varying adaptation options which result in differing impacts on crop yields and thus food security, as a result of using or ignoring the seasonal outlook. Key variables are the skill of the forecast, the social communication of the forecast and the range of available household and community-based risk coping strategies. This research provides a novel approach for exploring adaptation within the context of climate change.

Discrete-element modelling: methods and applications in the environmental sciences.

This paper introduces a Theme Issue on discrete-element modelling, based on research presented at an interdisciplinary workshop on this topic organized by the National Institute of Environmental e-Science. The purpose of the workshop, and this collection of papers, is to highlight the opportunities for environmental scientists provided by (primarily) off-lattice methods in the discrete-element family, and to draw on the experiences of research communities in which the use of these methods is more advanced. Applications of these methods may be conceived in a wide range of situations where dynamic processes involve a series of fundamental entities (particles or elements) whose interaction results in emergent macroscale structures. Indeed, the capacity of these methods to reveal emergent properties at the meso- and macroscale, that reflect microscale interactions, is a significant part of their attraction. They assist with the definition of constitutive material properties at scales beyond those at which measurement and theory have been developed, and help us to understand self-organizing behaviours. The paper discusses technical issues including the contact models required to represent collision behaviour, computational aspects of particle tracking and collision detection, and scales at which experimental data are required and choices about modelling style must be made. It then illustrates the applicability of DEM and other forms of individual-based modelling in environmental and related fields as diverse as mineralogy, geomaterials, mass movement and fluvial sediment transport processes, as well as developments in ecology, zoology and the human sciences where the relationship between individual behaviour and group dynamics can be explored using a partially similar methodological framework.