RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Ensuring the consistent availability of essential medicines is crucial for effective healthcare systems. However, Ethiopian public health facilities have faced frequent stockouts of crucial medications, highlighting systemic challenges such as inadequate forecasting, prolonged procurement processes, a disjointed distribution system, suboptimal data quality, and a shortage of trained professionals. This study focuses on the Ethiopian Pharmaceutical Supply Services (EPSS), known for its highly unstable and volatile supply chain, aiming to identify risks and mitigation strategies. METHODS: Using a mixed-method approach involving surveys and interviews, the research investigates successful and less successful strategies, key success factors, and barriers related to pharmaceutical shortages. RESULTS: Proactive measures such as communication, stock assessment, supervision, and streamlined procurement are emphasized as vital in mitigating disruptions, while reactive strategies like safety stock may lack long-term efficacy. The study highlights the importance of aligning supply chain strategies with product uncertainties, fostering collaboration, and employing flexible designs for resilience. Managerial implications stress the need for responsive structures that integrate data quality, technology, and visibility. CONCLUSIONS: This study contributes by exploring proactive and reactive strategies, elucidating key success factors for overcoming shortages in countries with unstable supply chains, and offering actionable steps for enhancing supply chain resilience. Embracing uncertainty and implementing proactive measures can help navigate volatile environments, thereby enhancing competitiveness and sustainability.
RESUMO
This study delves into the challenges of pharmaceutical forecasting within the Ethiopian public pharmaceutical supply chain, which is vital for ensuring medicine availability and optimizing healthcare delivery. t It aims to identify and analyze key hindrances to pharmaceutical forecasting in Ethiopia, employing qualitative analysis through semi-structured interviews with stakeholders. Thematic analysis using NVIVO 14 software reveals challenges including finance-related constraints, workforce shortages, and data quality issues. Financial challenges arise from funding uncertainties, causing delayed procurement and stockouts. Workforce shortages hinder accurate forecasting, while data quality issues result from incomplete and untimely reporting. Recommendations include prioritizing healthcare financing, investing in workforce development, and improving data quality through technological advancements and enhanced coordination among stakeholders.