Machine learning-based life cycle assessment for environmental sustainability optimization of a food supply chain.

Effective resource allocation in the agri-food sector is essential in mitigating environmental impacts and moving toward circular food supply chains. The potential of integrating life cycle assessment (LCA) with machine learning has been highlighted in recent studies. This hybrid framework is valuable not only for assessing food supply chains but also for improving them toward a more sustainable system. Yet, an essential step in the optimization process is defining the optimization boundaries, or minimum and maximum quantities for the variables. Usually, the boundaries for optimization variables in these studies are obtained from the minimum and maximum values found through interviews and surveys. A deviation in these ranges can impact the final optimization results. To address this issue, this study applies the Delphi method for identifying variable optimization boundaries. A hybrid environmental assessment framework linking LCA, multilayer perceptron artificial neural network, the Delphi method, and genetic algorithm was used for optimizing the pomegranate production system. The results indicated that the suggested framework holds promise for achieving substantial mitigation in environmental impacts (potential reduction of global warming by 46%) within the explored case study. Inclusion of the Delphi method for variable boundary determination brings novelty to the resource allocation optimization process in the agri-food sector. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;00:1-11. © 2024 SETAC.

Forced labour risk is pervasive in the US land-based food supply.

Social risk assessments and case studies of labour conditions in food production primarily focus on specific subpopulations, regions and commodities. To date, research has not systematically assessed labour conditions against international standards across diverse, complex food products. Here we combine data on production, trade, labour intensity and qualitative risk coding to quantitatively assess the risk of forced labour embedded in the US land-based food supply, building on our previous assessment of fruits and vegetables. We demonstrate that animal-based proteins, processed fruits and vegetables, and discretionary foods are major contributors to forced labour risk and that 62% of total forced labour risk stems from domestic production or processing. Our findings reveal the widespread risk of forced labour present in the US food supply and the necessity of collaborative action across all countries-high, middle and low income-to eliminate reliance on labour exploitation.

Toward sustainable culture media: Using artificial intelligence to optimize reduced-serum formulations for cultivated meat.

When considering options for future foods, cell culture approaches are at the fore, however, culture media to support the process has been identified as a significant contributor to the overall global warming potential (GWP) and cost of cultivated meat production. To address this issue, an artificial intelligence-based approach was applied to simultaneously optimize the GWP, cost, and cell growth rate of a reduced-serum culture media formulation for a zebrafish (ZEM2S cell line) cultivated meat production system. Response surface methodology (RSM) was used to design the experiments, with seven components - IGF, FGF, TGF, PDGF, selenium, ascorbic acid, and serum - selected as independent variables, given their influence on culture media performance. Radial basis function (RBF) neural networks and genetic algorithm (GA) were applied for prediction of dependent variables, and optimization of the culture media formulation, respectively. The results indicated that the developed RBF could accurately predict the GWP, cost and growth rate, with a model efficiency of 0.98. Subsequently, the three developed RBF neural networks predictive models were used as the inputs for a multi-objective genetic algorithm, and the optimal quantities of the independent variables were determined using a multi-objective optimization algorithm. The suggested RSM + RBF + GA framework in this study could be applied to sustainably optimize serum-free media development, identifying the combination of media ingredients that balances yield, environmental impact, and cost for various cultivated meat cell lines.

Improving school lunch menus with multi-objective optimisation: nutrition, cost, consumption and environmental impacts.

OBJECTIVE: To support school foods programmes by evaluating the relationship between nutritional quality, cost, student consumption and the environmental impacts of menus. DESIGN: Using linear programming and data from previously served menu items, the relationships between the nutritional quality, cost, student consumption and the environmental impacts of lunch menus were investigated. Optimised lunch menus with the maximum potential student consumption and nutritional quality and lowest costs and environmental impacts were developed and compared with previously served menus (baseline). SETTING: Boston Public Schools (BPS), Boston Massachusetts, USA. PARTICIPANTS: Menu items served on the 2018-2019 BPS lunch menu (n 142). RESULTS: Using single-objective models, trade-offs were observed between most interests, but the use of multi-objective models minimised these trade-offs. Compared with the current weekly menus offered, multi-objective models increased potential caloric intake by up to 27 % and Healthy Eating Index scores by up to 19 % and reduced costs and environmental impacts by up to 13 % and 71 %, respectively. Improvements were made by reducing the frequency of beef and cheese entrées and increasing the frequency of fish and legume entrées on weekly menus. CONCLUSIONS: This work can be extrapolated to monthly menus to provide further direction for school districts, and the methods can be employed with different recipes and constraints. Future research should test the implementation of optimised menus in schools and consider the broader implications of implementation.

Measurement of diets that are healthy, environmentally sustainable, affordable, and equitable: A scoping review of metrics, findings, and research gaps.

Introduction: Research on the impacts of dietary patterns on human and planetary health is a rapidly growing field. A wide range of metrics, datasets, and analytical techniques has been used to explore the role of dietary choices/constraints in driving greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, environmental degradation, health and disease outcomes, and the affordability of food baskets. Many argue that each domain is important, but few have tackled all simultaneously in analyzing diet-outcome relationships. Methods: This paper reviews studies published between January 2015 and December 2021 (inclusive) that examined dietary patterns in relation to at least two of the following four thematic pillars: (i) planetary health, including, climate change, environmental quality, and natural resource impacts, (ii) human health and disease, (iii) economic outcomes, including diet cost/affordability, and (iv) social outcomes, e.g., wages, working conditions, and culturally relevant diets. We systematically screened 2,425 publications by title and abstract and included data from 42 eligible publications in this review. Results: Most dietary patterns used were statistically estimated or simulated rather than observed. A rising number of studies consider the cost/affordability of dietary scenarios in relation to optimized environmental and health outcomes. However, only six publications incorporate social sustainability outcomes, which represents an under-explored dimension of food system concerns. Discussion: This review suggests a need for (i) transparency and clarity in datasets used and analytical methods; (ii) explicit integration of indicators and metrics linking social and economic issues to the commonly assessed diet-climate-planetary ecology relationships; (iii) inclusion of data and researchers from low- and middle-income countries; (iv) inclusion of processed food products to reflect the reality of consumer choices globally; and (v) attention to the implications of findings for policymakers. Better understanding is urgently needed on dietary impacts on all relevant human and planetary domains simultaneously.

Diet Sustainability Analyses Can Be Improved With Updates to the Food Commodity Intake Database.

Diet sustainability analyses inform policymaking decisions and provide clinicians and consumers with evidence-based information to make dietary changes. In the United States, the Food Commodity Intake Database (FCID) provides a crosswalk for integrating nationally representative data on food intake from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) with data on sustainability outcomes from other publicly available databases. However, FCID has not been updated since 2010 and does not link with contemporary NHANES data, which limits further advancements in sustainability research. This study fills this research gap by establishing novel linkages between FCID and NHANES 2011-2018, comparing daily per capita food intake with and without these linkages, and making these data publicly available for use by other researchers. To update FCID, two investigators independently established novel data linkages, a third investigator resolved discrepancies, and a fourth investigator audited linkages for accuracy. Dietary data were acquired from nearly 45,000 adults from 2001 to 2018, and food intake was compared between updated vs. non-updated FCID versions. Total food intake from 2011 to 2018 was 5-23% higher using the updated FCID compared to the non-updated version, and intake was over 100% higher in some years for some food categories including poultry, eggs, legumes, starchy vegetables, and tropical oils (P < 0.001 for all comparisons). Further efforts may be needed to create new food composition data to reflect new products and reformulations that enter the food supply over time. This study removes a barrier to further diet sustainability analyses by establishing a data crosswalk between contemporary NHANES and other publicly available databases on agricultural resource use, environmental impacts, and consumer food expenditures.

Risk of forced labour embedded in the US fruit and vegetable supply.

Sustainable food consumption studies have largely focused on promoting human health within ecological limits. Less attention has been paid to social sustainability, in part because of limited data and models. Globally, agriculture has one of the highest incidences of forced labour, with exploitative conditions enabled by low margins, domestic labour scarcity, inadequate legal protections for workers and high labour requirements. Here we assess the forced labour risk embedded in the US retail supply of fruits and vegetables using distinct datasets and a new forced labour risk scoring method. We demonstrate that there is risk of forced labour in a broad set of fruit and vegetable commodities, with a small number of commodities accounting for a substantial fraction of total risk at the retail supply level. These findings signal potential trade-offs and synergies across dimensions of food system sustainability and the need for novel research approaches to develop evidence-based forced labour risk mitigation strategies.

Identifying the links between consumer food waste, nutrition, and environmental sustainability: a narrative review.

Emerging research demonstrates unexpected relationships between food waste, nutrition, and environmental sustainability that should be considered when developing waste reduction strategies. In this narrative review, we synthesize these linkages and the evidence related to drivers of food waste and reduction strategies at the consumer level in the United States. Higher diet quality is associated with greater food waste, which results in significant quantities of wasted resources (e.g., energy, fertilizer) and greenhouse gas emissions. Food waste also represents waste of micronutrients that could otherwise theoretically fill nutritional gaps for millions of people. To make progress on these multiple fronts simultaneously, nutrition professionals must expand beyond their traditional purview, into more interdisciplinary arenas that make connections with food waste and environmental sustainability.

Healthy diets can create environmental trade-offs, depending on how diet quality is measured.

BACKGROUND: There is an urgent need to assess the linkages between diet patterns and environmental sustainability in order to meet global targets for reducing premature mortality and improving sustainable management of natural resources. This study fills an important research gap by evaluating the relationship between incremental differences in diet quality and multiple environmental burdens, while also accounting for the separate contributions of retail losses, inedible portions, and consumer waste. METHODS: Cross sectional, nationally-representative data on food intake in the United States were acquired from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2005-2016), and were linked with nationally-representative data on food loss and waste from published literature. Survey-weighted procedures estimated daily per capita food retail loss, food waste, inedible portions, and consumed food, and were summed to represent Total Food Demand. Diet quality was measured using the Healthy Eating Index-2015 and the Alternative Healthy Eating Index-2010. Data on food intake, loss, and waste were inputted into the US Foodprint Model to estimate the amount of agricultural land, fertilizer nutrients, pesticides, and irrigation water used to produce food. RESULTS: This study included dietary data from 50,014 individuals aged ≥2 y. Higher diet quality (HEI-2015 and AHEI-2010) was associated with greater per capita Total Food Demand, as well as greater retail loss, inedible portions, consumer waste, and consumed food (P < 0.001 for all comparisons). Consumed food accounted for 56-74% of agricultural resource use (land, fertilizer nutrients, pesticides, and irrigation water), retail loss accounted for 4-6%, inedible portions accounted for 2-15%, and consumer waste accounted for 20-23%. Higher diet quality was associated with lower use of agricultural land, but the relationship to other agricultural resources was dependent on the tool used to measure diet quality (HEI-2015 vs. AHEI-2010). CONCLUSIONS: Over one-quarter of the agricultural inputs used to produce Total Food Demand were attributable to edible food that was not consumed. Importantly, this study also demonstrates that the relationship between diet quality and environmental sustainability depends on how diet quality is measured. These findings have implications for the development of sustainable dietary guidelines, which requires balancing population-level nutritional needs with the environmental impacts of food choices.

Systematic Review of Dietary Patterns and Sustainability in the United States.

Improving awareness and accessibility of healthy diets are key challenges for health professionals and policymakers alike. While the US government has been assessing and encouraging nutritious diets via the Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA) since 1980, the long-term sustainability, and thus availability, of those diets has received less attention. The 2015 Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee (DGAC) examined the evidence on sustainable diets for the first time, but this topic was not included within the scope of work for the 2020 DGAC. The objective of this study was to systematically review the evidence on US dietary patterns and sustainability outcomes published from 2015 to 2019 replicating the 2015 DGAC methodology. The 22 studies meeting inclusion criteria reveal a rapid expansion of research on US dietary patterns and sustainability, including 8 studies comparing the sustainability of DGA-compliant dietary patterns with current US diets. Our results challenge prior findings that diets adhering to national dietary guidelines are more sustainable than current average diets and indicate that the Healthy US-style dietary pattern recommended by the DGA may lead to similar or increased greenhouse gas emissions, energy use, and water use compared with the current US diet. However, consistent with previous research, studies meeting inclusion criteria generally support the conclusion that, among healthy dietary patterns, those higher in plant-based foods and lower in animal-based foods would be beneficial for environmental sustainability. Additional research is needed to further evaluate ways to improve food system sustainability through both dietary shifts and agricultural practices in the United States.

Comparing the Recommended Eating Patterns of the EAT-Lancet Commission and Dietary Guidelines for Americans: Implications for Sustainable Nutrition.

The purpose of this research was to compare the global reference diet from the EAT-Lancet Commission on Healthy Diets from Sustainable Food Systems (EAT-Lancet) with the healthy eating patterns from the 2015-2020 Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA). Conversion factors were developed to quantitatively compare the patterns. These factors are provided to enable investigators to incorporate the EAT-Lancet diet into analyses while maintaining relevance to US-based dietary guidance. Our findings show several areas of agreement between EAT-Lancet and the DGA but key differences in the amounts of whole grains, fruit, starchy vegetables, red meat, nuts and seeds, and discretionary calories. Many of the differences between the patterns reflect divergent approaches to developing dietary recommendations, not only methodologically but also regarding whether current food consumption patterns are considered as constraints on recommendations. Continued interdisciplinary collaboration is needed to advance dietary guidance that promotes sustainable nutrition.

Linking sustainability to the healthy eating patterns of the Dietary Guidelines for Americans: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence-based nutrition policy is a key mechanism to promote planetary health. In the USA, the Dietary Guidelines for Americans are the foundation of nutrition policy and guide more than US$80 billion in federal spending. Recent attempts have been made to incorporate sustainability into the development of the Dietary Guidelines. However, the sustainability of the 2015-20 Dietary Guidelines remains unclear; research has not yet assessed the environmental impacts of the distinct healthy patterns recommended by the policy. METHODS: In this modelling study done at the University of New Hampshire (Durham, NH, USA), we analysed the healthy US-style (US), healthy Mediterranean-style (MED), and healthy vegetarian (VEG) patterns recommended in the 2015-20 Dietary Guidelines for Americans. Food groups and subgroups consisted of 321 commonly consumed foods, with group composition predetermined by the US Department of Agriculture. We compiled and used multiple datasets to assign environmental burdens to foods, focusing on six impact categories of policy importance: global warming potential, land use, water depletion, freshwater and marine eutrophication, and particulate matter or respiratory organics. We did life cycle impact assessments for each of the three diet patterns and compared the six impact categories between the patterns. We also analysed the proportion contribution of the food groups to each impact category in each of the diet patterns. FINDINGS: The US and MED patterns had similar impacts, except for freshwater eutrophication. Freshwater eutrophication was 31% lower in the US pattern than the MED pattern, primarily due to increased seafood in the MED pattern. All three patterns had similar water depletion impacts, with fruits and vegetables as major contributors. For five of the six impacts, the VEG pattern had 42-84% lower burdens than both the US and MED patterns. Reliance on plant-based protein and eggs in the VEG pattern versus emphasis on animal-based protein in the other patterns was a key driver of differences, as was a lower overall protein foods recommendation in the VEG pattern. INTERPRETATION: The recommended patterns in the Dietary Guidelines for Americans might have starkly different impacts on the environment and other dimensions of human health beyond nutrition. Given the scale of influence of the Dietary Guidelines for Americans on food systems, incorporating sustainability into their development has the potential to have great benefit in terms of long-term food security. FUNDING: None.