The interplay among COVID-19 economic recovery, behavioural changes, and the European Green Deal: An energy-economic modelling perspective.

In the EU, COVID-19 and associated policy responses led to economy-wide disruptions and shifts in services demand, with considerable energy-system implications. The European Commission's response paved the way towards enhancing climate ambition through the European Green Deal. Understanding the interactions among environmental, social, and economic dimensions in climate action post-COVID thus emerged as a key challenge. This study disaggregates the implications of climate ambition, speed of economic recovery from COVID-19, and behavioural changes due to pandemic-related measures and/or environmental concerns for EU transition dynamics, over the next decade. It soft-links two large-scale energy-economy models, EU-TIMES and NEMESIS, to shed light on opportunities and challenges related to delivering on the EU's 2030 climate targets. Results indicate that half the effort required to reach the updated 55% emissions reduction target should come from electricity decarbonisation, followed by transport. Alongside a post-COVID return to normal, the European Green Deal may lead to increased carbon prices and fossil-fuel rebounds, but these risks may be mitigated by certain behavioural changes, gains from which in transport energy use would outweigh associated consumption increases in the residential sector. Finally, the EU recovery mechanism could deliver about half the required investments needed to deliver on the 2030 ambition.

Where is the EU headed given its current climate policy? A stakeholder-driven model inter-comparison.

Recent calls to do climate policy research with, rather than for, stakeholders have been answered in non-modelling science. Notwithstanding progress in modelling literature, however, very little of the scenario space traces back to what stakeholders are ultimately concerned about. With a suite of eleven integrated assessment, energy system and sectoral models, we carry out a model inter-comparison for the EU, the scenario logic and research questions of which have been formulated based on stakeholders' concerns. The output of this process is a scenario framework exploring where the region is headed rather than how to achieve its goals, extrapolating its current policy efforts into the future. We find that Europe is currently on track to overperforming its pre-2020 40% target yet far from its newest ambition of 55% emissions cuts by 2030, as well as looking at a 1.0-2.35 GtCO2 emissions range in 2050. Aside from the importance of transport electrification, deployment levels of carbon capture and storage are found intertwined with deeper emissions cuts and with hydrogen diffusion, with most hydrogen produced post-2040 being blue. Finally, the multi-model exercise has highlighted benefits from deeper decarbonisation in terms of energy security and jobs, and moderate to high renewables-dominated investment needs.

A consumption approach to wastes from economic activities.

In a context of waste management policies aimed at promoting waste prevention and recycling and, conversely, reducing waste landfilling, this study investigates how waste is generated and treated in a consumption perspective. A Waste Input-Output Analysis is implemented that considers 14 waste fractions and four waste management techniques. Input-Output Tables extended to wastes are initially compiled for the year 2008 considering France and five of its main import suppliers, and further completed with data on waste treatment. Wastes from economic activities are accordingly reallocated to the product categories of household consumption that induce their production. In particular, considering five waste categories (dry recyclable wastes, mixed wastes, mineral wastes, organic wastes, and total wastes) as an aggregation of the 14 waste fractions studied, the ten product categories with the highest contribution account for 64-86% of the total generation of wastes. Waste intensity and volume of expenses are analyzed as the drivers for the amounts of wastes induced by each product category. Similarly, the products responsible for the largest amounts of waste landfilling and incineration without energy recovery, i.e. the management techniques at the bottom of the "waste management hierarchy", are identified. Moreover, this study highlights the relative importance of waste produced abroad as compared to that produced in France, regarding the total amount of waste induced by French household consumption. The sensitivity of results to the modeling of import production is subsequently discussed. Finally, the potential perspectives for this type of consumption approach are considered with respect to its utility and current limitations in a context of waste policy planning, and more particularly regarding the way waste policy targets are set.