Achieving cardiac rehabilitation uptake targets: What is the value case for commissioners? A UK case-study.

Cardiac Rehabilitation (CR) has become an established intervention to support patient recovery after a cardiac event, with evidence supporting its effectiveness and cost-effectiveness in improving patient health and reducing future burden on healthcare systems. However, this evidence has focussed on the national value case for CR rather than at the point at which it is commissioned. This analysis uses the UK as a case-study to explore variation in current CR engagement and disassemble the value case from a commissioner perspective. Using data collected by the National Audit of CR (NACR), and an existing model of cost-effectiveness, we present details on the current level of CR uptake by commissioning region (Specialist Clinical Networks) in light of the current UK target of achieving 85% uptake. We then interrogate the value case for achieving the target at a commissioner level, highlighting the expected profile of health benefits and healthcare system costs over the long-term. Importantly we consider where this may differ from the national value case. Each commissioning region has a unique level of CR uptake and sociodemographic profile. Concurrently, the value case for commissioning CR relies on the upfront cost of the service being offset by long-term healthcare savings, and health improvements. The shift in the UK and internationally to more localised commissioning necessitates evidence of cost-effectiveness that better reflects the realities of those decision makers. This paper provides vital additional data to facilitate such commissioners to understand the value case in increasing CR uptake in line with national policy.

Estimating the health loss due to poor engagement with cardiac rehabilitation in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac rehabilitation (CR) programs are effective in reducing cardiovascular mortality and readmissions. However, most patients are denied the benefits of CR due to low referral rates. Of those patients referred, commencement rates vary from 28.4% to 60%. This paper quantifies the scale of health loss in Australia due to poor engagement with the program, and estimates how much public funding can be justifiably reallocated to address the problem. METHODS: Economic decision modelling was undertaken to estimate the expected lifetime health loss and costs to Medicare. Key parameters were derived from Australian databases, CR registries and meta-analyses. Population health gains associated with uptake rates of 60%, and 85% were calculated. RESULTS: CR was associated with a 99.9% probability of being cost-effective, even at a cost-effectiveness threshold lower than conventionally applied. Importantly, an average of 0.52 years of life expectancy are lost due to national uptake being below 60% achieved in some best performing programs in Australia, equivalent to 0.28 quality adjusted life years. The analysis indicates that $12.9 million/year could be justifiably reallocated from public funds to achieve a national uptake rate of 60%, while maintaining cost-effectiveness of CR due to the large health gains that would be expected. CONCLUSION: CR is a cost-effective service for patients with coronary heart disease. In Australia, less than a third of patients commence CR, potentially resulting in avoidable patient harm. Additional investment in CR is vital and should be a national priority as the health gains for patients far outweigh the costs.

Impact of specialist rehabilitation services on hospital length of stay and associated costs.

BACKGROUND: Provision of specialist rehabilitation services in North Yorkshire and Humberside may be suboptimal. Local commissioning bodies need to prioritise investments in health care, but previous studies provide limited evidence to inform the decision to expand existing services on the basis of cost-effectiveness. We examine the impact of specialist rehabilitation services in the subregion on hospital length of stay (LoS) and associated costs compared to routine care. METHODS: Comparison of hospital LoS and associated costs in centres with greater access (Hull) and limited access (i.e. routine care, York and Northern Lincolnshire), to specialist rehabilitation services for patients with complex disabilities following illness or injury, using Hospital Episodes Statistics data. RESULTS: Average LoS and duration costs by Healthcare Resource Group (HRG) were lower for the majority of patients with greater access to specialist rehabilitation compared to routine care. Difference in LoS between groups widened with level of complexity within each HRG. For the more frequent HRG codes, the LoS difference was as high as 34 days longer for York compared to Hull and £7900 more costly. CONCLUSION: Rehabilitation patients within York and Northern Lincolnshire areas appear to have longer LoS and higher associated costs compared to those admitted to the Hull Trust. This analysis suggests that specialist rehabilitation may be cost saving compared to routine care and supports the case for expansion of the existing services to improve coverage in the area.

Cost-effectiveness of laparoscopic fundoplication versus continued medical management for the treatment of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease based on long-term follow-up of the REFLUX trial.

BACKGROUND: Laparoscopic fundoplication surgery has been shown to be a cost-effective alternative to continued medical management over 1 year for patients with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD). The longer-term cost-effectiveness is, however, uncertain. This study evaluated the long-term health benefits, costs and cost-effectiveness of laparoscopic fundoplication compared with continued medical management in patients with GORD. METHODS: Individual patient data were used from the 5-year follow-up of the REFLUX trial, a large multicentre, pragmatic, randomized trial in which 357 patients with GORD for at least 12 months at trial entry were allocated randomly to early laparoscopic fundoplication or continued medical management. Health outcomes were expressed in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). A UK National Health Service perspective was used for costs. RESULTS: The group randomized to surgery experienced better health outcomes in each year of follow-up, but the difference narrowed over time. At 5 years, the surgery group had experienced 0.216 (95 per cent confidence interval 0.021 to 0.412) more QALYs but also accrued €1832 (1214 to 2448) more costs. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was €8481 per QALY gained. The probability that surgery is the most cost-effective intervention was 0.932 at a threshold of €24,134/QALY (£20,000/QALY). Results were robust to most sensitivity analyses, except where patients with missing data randomized to surgery were assumed to have worse health outcomes. CONCLUSION: Laparoscopic fundoplication is a cost-effective alternative to continued medical management over 5 years. No evidence was found to suggest that the cost-effectiveness of laparoscopic fundoplication diminishes over time.

Clinical and economic evaluation of laparoscopic surgery compared with medical management for gastro-oesophageal reflux disease: 5-year follow-up of multicentre randomised trial (the REFLUX trial).

BACKGROUND: Despite promising evidence that laparoscopic fundoplication provides better short-term relief of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD) than continued medical management, uncertainty remains about whether benefits are sustained and outweigh risks. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the long-term clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and safety of laparoscopic surgery among people with GORD requiring long-term medication and suitable for both surgical and medical management. DESIGN: Five-year follow-up of a randomised trial (with parallel non-randomised preference groups) comparing a laparoscopic surgery-based policy with a continued medical management policy. Cost-effectiveness was assessed alongside the trial using a NHS perspective for costs and expressing health outcomes in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). SETTING: Follow-up was by annual postal questionnaire and selective hospital case notes review; initial recruitment in 21 UK hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Questionnaire responders among the 810 original participants. At entry, all had documented evidence of GORD and symptoms for > 12 months. Questionnaire response rates (years 1-5) were from 89.5% to 68.9%. INTERVENTIONS: Three hundred and fifty-seven participants were recruited to the randomised comparison (178 randomised to surgical management and 179 randomised to continued medical management) and 453 to the preference groups (261 surgical management and 192 medical management). The surgeon chose the type of fundoplication. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary: disease-specific outcome measure (the REFLUX questionnaire); secondary: Short Form questionnaire-36 items (SF-36), European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D), NHS resource use, reflux medication, complications. RESULTS: The randomised groups were well balanced. By 5 years, 63% in the randomised surgical group and 13% in the randomised medical management group had received a total or partial wrap fundoplication (85% and 3% in the preference groups), with few perioperative complications and no associated deaths. At 1 year (and 5 years) after surgery, 36% (41%) in the randomised surgical group - 15% (26%) of those who had surgery - were taking proton pump inhibitor medication compared with 87% (82%) in the randomised medical group. At each year, differences in the REFLUX score significantly favoured the randomised surgical group (a third of a SD; p< 0.01 at 5 years). SF-36 and EQ-5D scores also favoured surgery, but differences attenuated over time and were generally not statistically significant at 5 years. The worse the symptoms at trial entry, the larger the benefit observed after surgery. Those randomised to medical management who subsequently had surgery had low baseline scores that markedly improved after surgery. Following fundoplication, 3% had surgical treatment for a complication and 4% had subsequent reflux-related operations - most often revision of the wrap. Dysphagia, flatulence and inability to vomit were similar in the two randomised groups. The economic analysis indicated that surgery was the more cost-effective option for this patient group. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for surgery in the base case was £7028 per additional QALY; these findings were robust to changes in approaches and assumptions. The probability of surgery being cost-effective at a threshold of £20,000 per additional QALY was > 0.80 for all analyses. CONCLUSIONS: After 5 years, laparoscopic fundoplication continues to provide better relief of GORD symptoms with associated improved health-related quality of life. Complications of surgery were uncommon. Despite being initially more costly, a surgical policy is highly likely to be cost-effective. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN15517081. FUNDING: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 17, No. 22. See the HTA programme website for further project information.

Informing a decision framework for when NICE should recommend the use of health technologies only in the context of an appropriately designed programme of evidence development.

BACKGROUND: The general issue of balancing the value of evidence about the performance of a technology and the value of access to a technology can be seen as central to a number of policy questions. Establishing the key principles of what assessments are needed, as well as how they should be made, will enable them to be addressed in an explicit and transparent manner. OBJECTIVES: The aims of this research are to (1) establish the key principles of what assessments are needed to inform an 'only in research' (OIR) or 'approval with research' (AWR) recommendation, (2) evaluate previous National Institute for Health and Clinical Evidence (NICE) guidance in which OIR or AWR recommendations were made or considered and (3) evaluate a range of alternative options to establish criteria, additional information and/or analysis that could be made available to inform the assessments needed. DATA SOURCES: All NICE draft and final guidance up to January 2010 was considered in the review of NICE technology appraisal guidance. Four case studies were used to evaluate the range of options of what information and analysis could be made available to inform the assessment required. These were based on a reanalysis of existing health technology appraisals for NICE or the Health Technology Assessment programme. REVIEW METHODS: A critical review of policies, practice and literature was undertaken using traditional systematic searching based on initial search terms informed by key publications. An iterative approach was adopted using 'pearl growing' evaluated through capture-recapture methods. In addition, grey literature, policy documents and other sources, such as special interest groups and the expertise of the Advisory Group for the project, were used to contribute to this process. RESULTS: A series of recommendations, or options, for NICE to consider were developed with the involvement of key stakeholders. These establish the key principles and associated criteria that might guide OIR and AWR recommendations and identify what, if any, additional information or analysis might be included in the technology appraisal process, including how such recommendations might be more likely to be implemented through publically funded and sponsored research. To meet these aims the research is broadly structured as follows. A critical review of policy, practice and literature in this area informs the development of a coherent conceptual framework to establish the key principles and the sequence of assessment and judgements required. This sequence of assessment and judgement is represented as an algorithm, which can also be summarised as a simple set of explicit criteria or a 7-point checklist of assessments. A review of previous NICE guidance in which OIR or AWR recommendations were either made or considered was undertaken to examine the extent to which the key principles are evident. The application of the checklist of assessment to a series of four case studies informs considerations of whether or not such assessments can be made based on existing information and analysis in current NICE appraisal and in what circumstances could additional information and/or analysis be useful. Finally, some of the implications that this more explicit assessment of OIR and AWR might have for policy (e.g. NICE guidance and drug pricing), the process of appraisal (e.g. greater involvement of research commissioners) and methods of appraisal (e.g. should additional information, evidence and analysis be required) are drawn together. At each stage this research has been informed by a diverse and international Advisory Group and the feedback from participants at two workshops involving a wide range of key stakeholders, which included members of NICE and its Advisory Committees (including lay members and other NICE programmes), patient advocates, manufacturers, and research and NHS commissioners, as well as relevant academics. LIMITATIONS: Further research is required to establish how these considerations could be integrated within a practical value-based pricing scheme. In addition, irrecoverable opportunity costs are commonly associated with many health technologies that offer future benefits following treatment. The significance of these types of irrecoverable costs is not widely recognised and further research to demonstrate their potential impact more generally is needed. CONCLUSIONS: The categories of guidance available to NICE have a wider application than is reflected in the review of previous guidance. Importantly, determining which category of guidance will be appropriate depends only partly on an assessment of expected cost-effectiveness. As well as AWR for technologies expected to be cost-effective and OIR for those not expected to be cost-effective, there are other important circumstances when OIR should be considered. In particular, for technologies expected to be cost-effective, OIR rather than approve may be appropriate when research is not possible with approval and OIR or even reject, rather than AWR or approve, may be appropriate even if research is possible with approval when there are significant irrecoverable costs. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Golimumab for the treatment of psoriatic arthritis.

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the use of golimumab for the treatment of psoriatic arthritis (PsA). The main clinical effectiveness data were derived from a single phase III randomised controlled trial (RCT: GO-REVEAL) that compared golimumab with placebo for treating patients with active and progressive PsA who were symptomatic despite the use of previous disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs or non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. The 14-week data showed that, compared with placebo, golimumab 50 mg significantly improved joint disease response as measured by American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 20 [relative risk (RR) 5.73, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.24 to 10.56] and Psoriatic Arthritis Response Criteria (PsARC) (RR 3.45, 95% CI 2.49 to 4.87), and skin disease response as measured by the Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) 75 (RR 15.95, 95% CI 4.62 to 59.11). The 24-week absolute data showed that these treatment benefits were maintained. There was a significant improvement in patients' functional status as measured by the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) change from baseline at 24 weeks (-0.33, p < 0.001). The open-label extension data showed that these beneficial effects were also maintained at 52 and 104 weeks. However, PASI 50 and PASI 90 at 14 weeks, and all of the PASI outcomes at 24 weeks, were not performed on the basis of intention-to-treat analysis. Furthermore, analyses of the 24-week data were less robust, failing to adjust for treatment contamination due to patient crossover at week 16. The manufacturer conducted a mixed treatment comparison (MTC) analysis. The ERG considered the assumption of exchangeability between the trials for the purpose of the MTC analysis to be acceptable, and the statistical approach in the MTC analysis to be reliable. Regarding the safety evaluation of golimumab, the manufacturer failed to provide longer-term data or to consider adverse event data of golimumab from controlled studies in other conditions, such as rheumatoid arthritis and ankylosing spondylitis. Although the adverse effect profile of golimumab appears similar to other anti-tumour necrosis factor (TNF) agents, the longer-term safety profile of golimumab remains uncertain. The manufacturer's submission presented a decision model to compare etanercept, infliximab, golimumab and adalimumab versus palliative care for patients with PsA. In the base-case model, 73% of the cohort of patients were assumed to have significant psoriasis (> 3% of body surface area). Estimates of the effectiveness of anti-TNF agents in terms of PsARC, HAQ change and PASI change were obtained from an MTC analysis of RCT data. The manufacturer failed to calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) correctly by comparing golimumab with palliative care instead of the most cost-effective alternative (etanercept). Despite the manufacturer's claim that golimumab is a cost-effective treatment option, the manufacturer's own model showed that golimumab is not cost-effective compared with other biologics when the ICERs are correctly calculated. None of the sensitivity analyses carried out by the manufacturer or the ERG regarding uncertainty in the estimates of clinical effectiveness, the acquisition and administration cost of drugs, the cost of treating psoriasis and the utility functions estimated to generate health outcomes changed this conclusion. However, a key area in determining the cost-effectiveness of anti-TNF agents is whether they should be treated as a class. If all anti-TNF agents are considered equally effective then etanercept, adalimumab and golimumab have very nearly equal costs and equal quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and all have an ICER of about £ 15,000 per QALY versus palliative care, whereas infliximab with a higher acquisition cost is dominated by the other biologics.

Etanercept, infliximab and adalimumab for the treatment of psoriatic arthritis: a systematic review and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Etanercept, infliximab and adalimumab are licensed in the UK for the treatment of active and progressive psoriatic arthritis (PsA) in adults who have an inadequate response to standard treatment. OBJECTIVE: To determine the clinical effectiveness, safety and cost-effectiveness of these biologic agents in the treatment of active and progressive PsA. DATA SOURCES: Systematic reviews were performed, with data sought from 10 electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Science Citation Index, Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Science, ClinicalTrials.gov, metaRegister of Current Controlled Trials, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Health Economic Evaluations Database and EconLit) up to June 2009. REVIEW METHODS: Full paper manuscripts of titles/abstracts considered relevant were obtained and assessed for inclusion by two reviewers according to criteria on study design, interventions, participants and outcomes. Data on study and participant characteristics, efficacy outcomes, adverse effects, costs to the health service and cost-effectiveness were extracted, along with baseline data where reported. The primary efficacy outcomes were measures of anti-inflammatory response, skin lesion response and functional status, and the safety outcome was the incidence of serious adverse events. The primary measure of cost-effectiveness was incremental cost per additional quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Standard meta-analytic techniques were applied to efficacy data. Published cost-effectiveness studies and the economic analyses submitted to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) by the biologic manufacturers were reviewed. An economic model was developed by updating the model produced by the York Assessment Group for the previous NICE appraisal of biologics in PsA. RESULTS: Pooled estimates of effect demonstrated a significant improvement in patients with PsA for all joint disease and functional status outcomes at 12-14 weeks' follow-up. The biologic treatment significantly reduced joint symptoms for etanercept [relative risk (RR) 2.60, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.96 to 3.45], infliximab (RR 3.44, 95% CI 2.53 to 4.69) and adalimumab (RR 2.24, 95% CI 1.74 to 2.88), with 24-week data demonstrating maintained treatment effects. Trial data demonstrated a significant effect of all three biologics on skin disease at 12 or 24 weeks. Evidence synthesis found that infliximab appeared to be most effective across all outcomes of joint and skin disease. The response in joint disease was greater with etanercept than with adalimumab, whereas the response in skin disease was greater with adalimumab than with etanercept, although these differences are not statistically significant. Under base-case assumptions, etanercept was the most likely cost-effective strategy for patients with PsA and mild-to-moderate psoriasis if the threshold for cost-effectiveness was £20,000 or £30,000 per QALY. All biologics had a similar probability of being cost-effective for patients with PsA and moderate-to-severe psoriasis at a threshold of £20,000 per QALY. LIMITATIONS: Limited available efficacy data and difficulty in assessing PsA activity and its response to biologic therapy. CONCLUSIONS: The data indicated that etanercept, infliximab and adalimumab were efficacious in the treatment of PsA compared with placebo, with beneficial effects on joint symptoms, functional status and skin. Short-term data suggested that these biologic agents can delay joint disease progression and evidence to support their use in the treatment of PsA is convincing. Future research would benefit from long-term observational studies with large sample sizes of patients with PsA to demonstrate that beneficial effects are maintained, along with further monitoring of the safety profiles of the biologic agents. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of minimal access surgery amongst people with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease - a UK collaborative study. The REFLUX trial.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and safety of a policy of relatively early laparoscopic surgery compared with continued medical management amongst people with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD) judged suitable for both policies. DESIGN: Relative clinical effectiveness was assessed by a randomised trial (with parallel non-randomised preference groups) comparing a laparoscopic surgery-based policy with a continued medical management policy. The economic evaluation compared the cost-effectiveness of the two management policies in order to identify the most efficient provision of future care and describe the resource impact that various policies for fundoplication would have on the NHS. SETTING: A total of 21 hospitals throughout the UK with a local partnership between surgeon(s) and gastroenterologist(s) who shared the secondary care of patients with GORD. PARTICIPANTS: The 810 participants, who were identified retrospectively or prospectively via their participating clinicians, had both documented evidence of GORD (endoscopy and/or manometry/24-hour pH monitoring) and symptoms for longer than 12 months. In addition, the recruiting clinician(s) was clinically uncertain about which management policy was best. INTERVENTION: Of the 810 eligible patients who consented to participate, 357 were recruited to the randomised arm of the trial (178 allocated to surgical management, 179 allocated to continued, but optimised, medical management) and 453 recruited to the parallel non-randomised preference arm (261 chose surgical management, 192 chose to continue with best medical management). The type of fundoplication was left to the discretion of the surgeon. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Participants completed a baseline REFLUX questionnaire, developed specifically for this study, containing a disease-specific outcome measure, the Short Form with 36 Items (SF-36), the EuroQol-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) and the Beliefs about Medicines and Surgery questionnaires (BMQ/BSQ). Postal questionnaires were completed at participant-specific time intervals after joining the trial (equivalent to approximately 3 and 12 months after surgery). Intraoperative data were recorded by the surgeons and all other in-hospital data were collected by the research nurse. At the end of the study period, participants completed a discrete choice experiment questionnaire. RESULTS: The randomised groups were well balanced at entry. Participants had been taking GORD medication for a median of 32 months; the mean age of participants was 46 years and 66% were men. Of 178 randomised to surgery, 111 (62%) actually had fundoplication. There was a mixture of clinical and personal reasons why some patients did not have surgery, sometimes related to long waiting times. A total or partial wrap procedure was performed depending on surgeon preference. Complications were uncommon and there were no deaths associated with surgery. By the equivalent of 12 months after surgery, 38% in the randomised surgical group (14% amongst those who had surgery) were taking reflux medication compared with 90% in the randomised medical group. There were substantial differences (one-third to one-half standard deviation) favouring the randomised surgical group across the health status measures, the size depending on assumptions about the proportion that actually had fundoplication. These differences were the same or somewhat smaller than differences observed at 3 months. The lower the REFLUX score, the worse the symptoms at trial entry and the larger the benefit observed after surgery. The preference surgical group had the lowest REFLUX scores at baseline. These scores improved substantially after surgery, and by 12 months they were better than those in the preference medical group. The BMQ/BSQ and discrete choice experiment did distinguish the preference groups from each other and from the randomised groups. The latter indicated that the risk of serious complications was the most important single attribute of a treatment option. A within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis suggested that the surgery policy was more costly (mean 2049 pounds) but also more effective [+0.088 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)]. The estimated incremental cost per QALY was 19,000-23,000 pounds, with a probability between 46% (when 62% received surgery) and 19% (when all received surgery) of cost-effectiveness at a threshold of 20,000 pounds per QALY. Modelling plausible longer-term scenarios (such as lifetime benefit after surgery) indicated a greater likelihood (74%) of cost-effectiveness at a threshold of 20,000 pounds, but applying a range of alternative scenarios indicated wide uncertainty. The expected value of perfect information was greatest for longer-term quality of life and proportions of surgical patients requiring medication. CONCLUSIONS: Amongst patients requiring long-term medication to control symptoms of GORD, surgical management significantly increases general and reflux-specific health-related quality of life measures, at least up to 12 months after surgery. Complications of surgery were rare. A surgical policy is, however, more costly than continued medical management. At a threshold of 20,000 pounds per QALY it may well be cost-effective, especially when putative longer-term benefits are taken into account, but this is uncertain. The more troublesome the symptoms, the greater the potential benefit from surgery. Uncertainty about cost-effectiveness would be greatly reduced by more reliable information about relative longer-term costs and benefits of surgical and medical policies. This could be through extended follow-up of the REFLUX trial cohorts or of other cohorts of fundoplication patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN15517081.

Prenatal screening and treatment strategies to prevent group B streptococcal and other bacterial infections in early infancy: cost-effectiveness and expected value of information analyses.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the cost-effectiveness of prenatal strategies for preventing group B streptococci (GBS) and other serious bacterial infections in early infancy and to establish the expected value of further information. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases were searched up to March 2006. Expert opinion was also sought. REVIEW METHODS: Twelve mutually exclusive maternal risk groups were defined at presentation in labour and the consequences considered of early-onset GBS and non-GBS bacterial infections and late onset GBS infection, measured in terms of lifetime NHS costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). These were for preterm delivery (<37 weeks): (1) planned Caesarean section, (2) previous baby with GBS disease, (3) positive urine or vaginal swab for GBS in current pregnancy, (4) fever >or=38 degrees C during labour, (5) membrane rupture >or=2 hours before labour onset, (6) membrane rupture <2 hours before labour onset. For term delivery (>or=37 weeks): (7) planned Caesarean section, (8) previous baby with GBS disease, (9) positive urine or vaginal swab for GBS in current pregnancy, (10) fever >or=38 degrees C during labour, (11) membrane rupture >or=18 hours, and (12) none of the above risk factors. Fourteen intervention strategies were applied to each maternal risk group. Data inputs were obtained from systematic reviews, primary data and expert opinion. The model parameters were simultaneously estimated from the data inputs using Bayesian evidence synthesis. The expected net benefit was calculated relative to no intervention for each intervention within each risk group for two scenarios, with and without vaccination. Interventions with more than a 1% probability of being cost-effective (i.e. maximising net benefit at a threshold of 25,000 pounds per QALY gained) in a specific risk group were combined to form strategies. To limit antibiotic exposure, women who were low risk at presentation could not be treated without a positive culture or polymerase chain reaction result. RESULTS: Current best practice, comprising intravenous treatment for pyrexia, previous GBS baby and previous GBS swab or urine culture, and oral treatment for preterm pre-labour membrane rupture (groups 2-5 and 8-10) was not cost-effective. All cost-effective options involved treatment of all preterm groups and high-risk term groups (groups 8-10). Testing high-risk women for maternal GBS colonisation would not be cost-effective, as even those with negative results would be better off treated to reduce the risk of early-onset non-GBS infection. In the absence of vaccination, culture-based testing of women in groups 11 and 12, combined with treatment for the rest, would be the most cost-effective strategy. If vaccination was available, vaccination for all and treatment for groups 1-10 would be marginally more cost-effective than treatment for groups 1-10 and culture for groups 11 and 12, but this is uncertain and is based on expert opinion on vaccine efficacy. The expected value of perfect information results suggest that moderate investment in research would be worthwhile. CONCLUSIONS: Based on our findings, immediate extension of current practice to treat all preterm and high-risk term groups would be beneficial. Further research aimed at the realisation of a GBS vaccine should be prioritized.

Clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of tests for the diagnosis and investigation of urinary tract infection in children: a systematic review and economic model.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the diagnostic accuracy of tests for detecting urinary tract infection (UTI) in children under 5 years of age and to evaluate the effectiveness of tests used to investigate further children with confirmed UTI. Also, to evaluate the effectiveness of following up children with UTI and the cost-effectiveness of diagnostic and imaging tests for the diagnosis and follow-up of UTI in children under 5. An additional objective was to develop a preliminary diagnostic algorithm for healthcare professionals. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases were searched up to the end of 2002/early 2003. Consultation with experts in the field. REVIEW METHODS: A systematic review was undertaken using published guidelines and results were analysed according to test grouping: diagnosis of UTI and further investigation of UTI. The cost-effectiveness results from existing evaluations were synthesised. A separate cost-effectiveness model was developed using the best available evidence, in part derived from the results of the systematic review, to illustrate the potential cost-effectiveness of some alternative management strategies in a UK setting. The results of the systematic review were used to propose diagnostic algorithms for the diagnosis and further investigation of UTI in children. Economic analyses did not contribute directly to the development of these algorithms. RESULTS: The studies included in the review provided very little data on the accuracy of clinical investigations for the diagnosis of UTI, and criteria for clinical suspicion of UTI were not further defined. The majority of studies included in the review found that clean voided midstream urine (CVU) samples had similar accuracy to suprapubic aspiration (SPA) samples when cultured with the advantage of being a non-invasive collection method that can be used in the GP's surgery. Pad, nappy or bag specimens may be appropriate methods for obtaining a urine sample in non-toilet-trained children, although only limited data were available. Although the glucose test was reported to have the highest accuracy in terms of both ruling in and ruling out disease, only a limited number of studies of this test were included and these were conducted over 30 years ago. Dipstick tests are easy to perform in the GP's surgery, give an immediate result and are relatively cheap. The results of the systematic review showed that a dipstick for leucocyte esterase (LE) and nitrite, where both test results are interpreted in combination, was a good test both for ruling in (both positive) and ruling out (both negative) a UTI. A dipstick positive for either LE or nitrite and negative for the other provides inconclusive diagnostic information and further testing is therefore required in these patients. Microscopy is more time consuming and expensive to perform than a dipstick test, but potentially quicker and cheaper than culture. As with dipstick tests, a combination of microscopy for pyuria and bacteriuria can be used accurately to rule in and rule out a UTI. An indeterminate test result is again obtained if microscopy is positive for either pyuria or bacteriuria, and negative for the other. Confirmatory culture is required in these patients. In patients considered to have a UTI, further culture to determine antibiotic sensitivities may be an option to inform treatment decisions. Only one study satisfied the inclusion criteria of the economic review and the review highlighted a number of potential limitations of this study for NHS decision-making. A separate decision-analytic model was therefore developed to provide a more reliable estimate of the optimal strategy regarding the diagnosis and further investigation of children under 5 with suspected UTI from the perspective of the NHS. The economic model found that the optimal diagnostic strategy for children presenting with symptoms suggestive of UTI depends on a number of key factors. These included the relevant subgroup of children concerned, in terms of gender and age, and the health service's maximum willingness to pay for an additional quality-adjusted life-year. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the systematic review were used to derive an algorithm for the diagnosis of UTI in children under 5. This algorithm represents the conclusions of the review in terms of effective practice. There were insufficient data to propose an algorithm for the further investigation of UTI in children under 5. The quality assessment highlighted several areas that could be improved upon in future diagnostic accuracy studies.

Topotecan, pegylated liposomal doxorubicin hydrochloride and paclitaxel for second-line or subsequent treatment of advanced ovarian cancer: a systematic review and economic evaluation.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of intravenous formulations of topotecan monotherapy, pegylated liposomal doxorubicin hydorocholoride (PLDH) monotherapy and paclitaxel used alone or in combination with a platinum-based compound for the second-line or subsequent treatment of advanced ovarian cancer. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases covering publication years 2000-4. Company submissions. REVIEW METHODS: Seventeen databases were searched for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and systematic reviews for the clinical effectiveness of PLDH, topotecan and paclitaxel and economic evaluations of the cost-effectiveness of PLDH, topotecan and paclitaxel. Selected studies were quality assessed and data extracted, as were the three company submissions. A new model was developed to assess the costs of the alternative treatments, the differential mean survival duration and the impact of health-related quality of life. Monte-Carlo simulation was used to reflect uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness results. RESULTS: Nine RCTs were identified. In five of these trials, both the comparators were used within their licensed indications. Of these five, three included participants with both platinum-resistant and platinum-sensitive advanced ovarian cancer, and a further two only included participants with platinum-sensitive disease. The comparators that were assessed in the three trials that included both subtypes of participants were PLDH versus topotecan, topotecan versus paclitaxel and PLDH versus paclitaxel. In the further two trials that included participants with the subtype of platinum-sensitive disease, the comparators that were assessed were single-agent paclitaxel versus a combination of cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin and cisplatin (CAP) and paclitaxel plus platinum-based chemotherapy versus conventional platinum-based therapy alone. A further four trials were identified and included in the review in which one of the comparators in the trial was used outside its licensed indication. The comparators assessed in these trials were oxaliplatin versus paclitaxel, paclitaxel given weekly versus every 3 weeks, paclitaxel at two different dose levels and oral versus intravenous topotecan. Four studies met the inclusion criteria for the cost-effectiveness review. The review of the economic evidence from the literature and industry submissions identified a number of significant limitations in existing studies assessing the cost-effectiveness of PLDH, topotecan and paclitaxel. Analysis 1 assessed the cost-effectiveness of PLDH, topotecan and paclitaxel administered as monotherapies. Sensitivity analysis was undertaken to explore the impact of patient heterogeneity (e.g. platinum-sensitive and platinum-resistant/refractory patients), the inclusion of additional trial data and alternative assumptions regarding treatment and monitoring costs. In the base-case results for Analysis 1, paclitaxel monotherapy emerged as the cheapest treatment. When the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated, topotecan was dominated by PLDH. Hence the options considered in the estimation of the ICERs were paclitaxel and PLDH. The ICER for PLDH compared with paclitaxel was pound 7033 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) in the overall patient population (comprising platinum-sensitive, -refractory and -resistant patients). The ICER was more favourable in the platinum-sensitive group ( pound 5777 per QALY) and less favourable in the platinum-refractory/resistant group ( pound 9555 per QALY). The cost-effectiveness results for the base-case analysis were sensitive to the inclusion of additional trial data. Incorporating the results of the additional trial data resulted in less favourable estimates for the ICER for PLDH versus paclitaxel compared with the base-case results. The ICER of PLDH compared with paclitaxel was pound 20,620 per QALY in the overall patient population, pound 16,183 per QALY in the platinum-sensitive population and pound 26,867 per QALY in the platinum-resistant and -refractory population. The results from Analysis 2 explored the cost-effectiveness of the full range of treatment comparators for platinum-sensitive patients. The treatment options considered in this model comprised PLDH, topotecan, paclitaxel-monotherapy, CAP, paclitaxel/platinum combination therapy and platinum monotherapy. Owing to the less robust approaches that were employed to synthesise the available evidence and the heterogeneity between the different trials, the reliability of these results should be interpreted with some caution. Topotecan, paclitaxel monotherapy and PLDH were all dominated by platinum monotherapy (i.e. higher costs and lower QALYs). After excluding these alternatives, the treatments that remained under consideration were platinum monotherapy, CAP and paclitaxel-platinum combination therapy. Of these three alternatives, platinum monotherapy was the least costly and least effective. The ICER for CAP compared with platinum monotherapy was pound 16,421 per QALY. The ICER for paclitaxel-platinum combination therapy compared with CAP was pound 20,950 per QALY. CONCLUSIONS: For participants with platinum-resistant disease there was a low probability of response to treatment with PLDH, topotecan or paclitaxel. Furthermore, there was little difference between the three comparators in relation to overall survival. The comparators did, however, differ considerably in their toxicity profiles. Given the low survival times and response rates, it appears that the maintenance of quality of life and the control of symptoms and toxicity are paramount in this patient group. As the three comparators differed significantly in terms of their toxicity profiles, patient and physician choice is also an important element that should be addressed when decisions are made regarding second-line therapy. It can also be suggested that this group of patients may benefit from being included in further clinical trials of new drugs. For participants with platinum-sensitive disease there was a considerable range of median survival times observed across the trials. The most favourable survival times and response rates were observed for paclitaxel and platinum combination therapy. This suggests that treatment with combination therapy may be more beneficial than treatment with a single-agent chemotherapeutic regimen. In terms of single-agent compounds, the evidence suggests that PLDH is more effective than topotecan. Evidence from a further trial that compared PLDH and paclitaxel suggests that there is no significant difference between these two comparators in this trial. The three comparators did, however, differ significantly in terms of their toxicity profiles across the trials. Although treatment with PLDH may therefore be more beneficial than that with topotecan, patient and physician choice as to the potential toxicities associated with each of the comparators and the patient's ability and willingness to tolerate these are of importance. Assuming the NHS is willing to pay up to pound 20,000-40,000 per additional QALY, PLDH appears to be cost-effective compared with topotecan and paclitaxel monotherapy, in terms of the overall patient population and the main subgroups considered. The cost-effectiveness results for the base-case analysis were sensitive to the inclusion of additional trial data. Incorporating the results of additional trial data gave less favourable estimates for the ICER for PLDH versus paclitaxel monotherapy, compared with the base-case results. Although the ICER of PLDH compared with paclitaxel monotherapy was less favourable, PLDH was still cost-effective compared with topotecan and paclitaxel monotherapy. For platinum-sensitive patients, the combination of paclitaxel and platinum appears to be cost-effective. On the strength of the evidence reviewed here, it can be suggested that participants with platinum-resistant disease may benefit from being included in further clinical trials of new drugs. To assess the effectiveness of combination therapy against a single-agent non-platinum-based compound, it can be suggested that a trial that compared paclitaxel in combination with a platinum-based therapy versus single-agent PLDH would be a reasonable option.