Prospective validity of the Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism (ERASOR).

Data from the Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism (ERASOR; Worling & Curwen) were collected for a sample of 191 adolescent males who had offended sexually. Adolescents were aged 12 to 19 years (M = 15.34; SD = 1.53) at the time of their participation in a comprehensive assessment. The ERASOR was completed by 1 of 22 clinicians immediately following each assessment. Forty-five adolescents were independently rated by pairs of clinicians, and significant interrater agreement was found for the ERASOR risk factors, the clinical judgment ratings (low, moderate, or high), and a total score. Recidivism data (criminal charges) were subsequently collected from three sources that spanned a follow-up period between 0.1 and 7.9 years (M = 3.66; SD = 2.08). Overall, 9.4% (18 of 191) of the adolescents were charged with a subsequent sexual offense over this time period. A shorter follow-up interval of up to 2.5 years (M = 1.4; SD = 0.71) was also examined. Recidivism data for the shorter follow-up interval were available for a subgroup of 70 adolescents, with a comparable recidivism rate of 8.6% (6 of 70). Clinical judgment ratings, the total score, and the sum of risk factors rated as present were significantly predictive of sexual reoffending for the short follow-up period. The total score and the sum of risk factors were predictive of sexual reoffending over the entire follow-up interval. These results add to the emerging research supporting the reliability and validity of structured risk assessment tools for adolescent sexual recidivism.

20-year prospective follow-up study of specialized treatment for adolescents who offended sexually.

Most follow-up investigations of the effectiveness of specialized treatment for adolescents who have offended sexually have not included a comparison group. Furthermore, the average length of most previous studies is approximately 5 years. This investigation is a 10-year extension of our prospective, 10-year follow-up study of specialized treatment (Worling & Curwen, 2000). Recidivism data (criminal charges) were collected from a national database for 148 adolescents who had offended sexually. Adolescents were between 12 and 19 years of age (M = 15.5; SD = 1.5) at assessment, and the follow-up interval spanned from 12 to 20 years (M = 16.23; SD = 2.02). Relative to the comparison group (n = 90), adolescents who participated in specialized treatment (n = 58) were significantly less likely to receive subsequent charges for sexual, nonsexual violent, and nonviolent crimes. These data add to the growing body of research supporting the effectiveness of specialized treatment for individuals who have offended sexually.