Basic host response parameters to classify mortality risk in COVID-19 and community-acquired pneumonia.

Improved phenotyping in pneumonia is necessary to strengthen risk assessment. Via a feasible and multidimensional approach with basic parameters, we aimed to evaluate the effect of host response at admission on severity stratification in COVID-19 and community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Three COVID-19 and one CAP multicenter cohorts including hospitalized patients were recruited. Three easily available variables reflecting different pathophysiologic mechanisms-immune, inflammation, and respiratory-were selected (absolute lymphocyte count [ALC], C-reactive protein [CRP] and, SpO2/FiO2). In-hospital mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission were analyzed as outcomes. A multivariable, penalized maximum likelihood logistic regression was performed with ALC (< 724 lymphocytes/mm3), CRP (> 60 mg/L), and, SpO2/FiO2 (< 450). A total of 1452, 1222 and 462 patients were included in the three COVID-19 and 1292 in the CAP cohort for the analysis. Mortality ranged between 4 and 32% (0 to 3 abnormal biomarkers) and 0-9% in SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia and CAP, respectively. In the first COVID-19 cohort, adjusted for age and sex, we observed an increased odds ratio for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 with elevated biomarkers altered (OR 1.8, 3, and 6.3 with 1, 2, and 3 abnormal biomarkers, respectively). The model had an AUROC of 0.83. Comparable findings were found for ICU admission, with an AUROC of 0.76. These results were confirmed in the other COVID-19 cohorts Similar OR trends were reported in the CAP cohort; however, results were not statistically significant. Assessing the host response via accessible biomarkers is a simple and rapidly applicable approach for pneumonia.

Generational trends in the transition to womanhood in lowland rural Nepal: Changes in the meaning of early marriage.

OBJECTIVE: In South Asia, studies show secular trends toward slightly later women's marriage and first reproduction. However, data on related biological and social events, such as menarche and age of coresidence with husband, are often missing from these analyses. We assessed generational trends in key life events marking the transition to womanhood in rural lowland Nepal. METHODS: We used data on 110 co-resident mother-in-law (MIL) and daughter-in-law (DIL) dyads. We used paired t-tests and chi-squared tests to evaluate generational trends in women's education, and mean age at menarche, marriage, cohabitation with husband, and first reproduction of MIL and DIL dyads. We examined norms held by MILs and DILs on a daughter's life opportunities. RESULTS: On average, MIL was 29 years older than DIL (60 years vs. 31 years). Both groups experienced menarche at average age 13.8 years. MIL was married at average 12.4 years, before menarche, and cohabitated with husbands at average 14.8 years. DIL was simultaneously married and cohabitated with husbands after menarche, at average 15 years. DIL was marginally more educated than MIL but had their first child on average 0.8 years earlier (95% CI -1.4, -0.1). MIL and DIL held similar norms on daughters' education and marriage. CONCLUSION: While social norms remain similar, the meaning of "early marriage" and use of menarche in marriage decisions has changed in rural lowland Nepal. Compared to DIL, MIL who was married earlier transitioned to womanhood more gradually. However, DIL was still married young, and had an accelerated trajectory to childbearing.

Short-term Macrochloa tenacissima response understory Pinus halepensis Mill forest after early prescribed burns in a semi-arid landscape.

Climate change has led to altered fire patterns in the Mediterranean basin due to rising temperatures and greenhouse gas emissions, diminishing the resilience of forest ecosystems. To address this threat, forest management increasingly employs preventive measures like controlled burns, aiming to mitigate wildfire damage. However, understanding the impact of prescribed burns on vegetation remains crucial. Our study focuses on assessing the ecological effects of early-season prescribed burns on Macrochloa tenacissima communities within Pinus halepensis Mill forests on the Iberian Peninsula. These forests, with southeast-facing slopes and arid soils, heavily rely on alpha grass for post-fire recovery, acting as a shield against runoff and erosion. Yet, the presence of highly flammable resprouting species can lead to rapid combustible material accumulation. We evaluated parameters like coverage, floral diversity (α-diversity), aboveground plant biomass, photosynthetic activity, and chemical leaf properties of alpha grass, a year after a low-intensity controlled burn. Comparing burnt and unburnt areas revealed significant changes in α-diversity and ecophysiology of Macrochloa tenacissima due to early-season prescribed burns. These short-term shifts underscore the need for further exploration of underlying mechanisms. Our analysis also showed distinct shifts in alpha grass leaf chemical composition between the two plot types, potentially impacting post-fire recovery strategies. Although prescribed burning might not be optimal for reducing fire risk in resprouting species-dominated forests, it conserves native plants and enhances ecosystem diversity, providing valuable ecological benefits. In conclusion, our research deepens our understanding of early-season burning's repercussions on flammable vegetation dynamics and combustible material availability in semi-arid landscapes. It contributes to standardized management protocols, aiding effective forest service administration and wildfire risk reduction.

Contribution of Low CD4 Cell Counts and High Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Viral Load to the Efficacy of Preferred First-Line Antiretroviral Regimens for Treating HIV Infection: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

We assessed whether low CD4 count and high viral load (VL) affect the response to currently preferred ART. We performed a systematic review of randomized, controlled clinical trials that analyzed preferred first-line ART and a subgroup analysis by CD4 count (≤ or >200 CD4/µL) or VL (≤ or >100 000 copies/mL). We computed the odds ratio (OR) of treatment failure (TF) for each subgroup and individual treatment arm. Patients with ≤200 CD4 cells or VL ≥100 000 copies/mL showed an increased likelihood of TF at 48 weeks: OR, 1.94; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.45-2.61 and OR, 1.75; 95% CI: 1.30-2.35, respectively. A similar increase in the risk of TF was observed at 96 weeks. There was no significant heterogeneity regarding integrase strand transfer inhibitor or nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor backbone. Our results show that CD4 <200 cells/µL and VL ≥100,000 copies/mL impair ART efficacy in all preferred regimens.

CHARMS and PROBAST at your fingertips: a template for data extraction and risk of bias assessment in systematic reviews of predictive models.

BACKGROUND: Systematic reviews of studies of clinical prediction models are becoming increasingly abundant in the literature. Data extraction and risk of bias assessment are critical steps in any systematic review. CHARMS and PROBAST are the standard tools used for these steps in these reviews of clinical prediction models. RESULTS: We developed an Excel template for data extraction and risk of bias assessment of clinical prediction models including both recommended tools. The template makes it easier for reviewers to extract data, to assess the risk of bias and applicability, and to produce results tables and figures ready for publication. CONCLUSION: We hope this template will simplify and standardize the process of conducting a systematic review of prediction models, and promote a better and more comprehensive reporting of these systematic reviews.

Prediction of significant coronary artery disease in acute chest pain without infarction in emergency department: MAPAC Cardio-PreTest model.

Acute nontraumatic chest pain is a frequent reaso n for consultation in emergency departments and represents a diagnostic challenge. The objective is to estimate the risk of significant coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with cardiogenic acute chest pain for whom the diagnosis of infarction was ruled out in the emergency department with a nondiagnostic ECG and negative high-sensitivity troponins. We prospectively recruited 1625 patients from emergency departments of seven Spanish hospitals. The outcome was presence of significant CAD determined by presence of ischaemia in functional tests or more than 70% stenosis in imaging tests. In this study, we developed a predictive model and evaluated its performance and clinical utility. The prevalence of significant CAD was 14% [227/1625; 95% confidence interval (CI), 12-16]. MAPAC Cardio-PreTest model included seven predictors: age, sex, smoking, history of hypertension, family history of CAD, history of hyperuricaemia, and type of chest pain. The optimism-adjusted model discrimination was C-statistic 0.654 (95% CI, 0.618-0.693). Calibration plot showed good agreement between the predicted and observed risks, and calibration slope was 0.880 (95% CI, 0.731-1.108) and calibration-in-the-large -0.001 (95% CI, -0.141 to 0.132). The model increased net benefit and improved risk classification over the recommended approach by the European Society of Cardiology [Net Reclassification Index (NRI) of events = 5.3%, NRI of nonevents = 7.0%]. MAPAC Cardio-PreTest model is an online prediction tool to estimate the individualised probability of significant CAD in patients with acute chest pain without a diagnosis of infarction in emergency department. The model was more useful than the current alternatives in helping patients and clinicians make individually tailored choices about the intensity of monitoring or additional coronary tests.

Performance and validation of the Healthy Heart Score model for predicting 12-year cardiovascular mortality in a nationwide Mediterranean population.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: The Healthy Heart Score (HHS) is a lifestyle-based equation for predicting cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and may serve as a tool in primordial prevention. However, its performance outside North American populations is unknown. This study assessed the performance of the HHS for estimating CVD mortality in the adult population of Spain. METHODS: We analyzed data from the ENRICA cohort, comprising 10 228 participants free of chronic disease and representative of the Spanish population aged ≥ 18-years, who were recruited from 2008 to 2010 and were followed up to 2020. The HHS includes body mass index, alcohol, physical activity, smoking, and a 5-component dietary score. The HHS was calculated at baseline using the sex-specific beta coefficients from the original development cohorts. Model discrimination was assessed using the Harrell c-statistic and Gonen-Heller c-statistic for survival data, and calibration was evaluated through calibration plots. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 11.8 years, 110 CVD deaths were ascertained. The discrimination of the HHS was similar for women (Harrell c, 0.91; 95%CI, 0.87-0.95; Gonen-Heller-c, 0.85; 95%CI, 0.83-0.88) and men (Harrell c, 0.91; 95%CI, 0.88-0.94; Gonen-Heller c: 0.85; 95%CI, 0.83-0.88). After recalibration by the sex-specific baseline survival function, the calibration became optimal for: a) all deciles of predicted CVD risk except the highest decile, where HHS underestimated the risk, and b) all age groups except 70 years and older, where there was an underestimation. CONCLUSIONS: In this Spanish cohort, the HHS showed good discrimination and calibration for predicting CVD death. The performance of HHS in other European populations and its implementation in the clinical setting warrants further investigation.

Short-term recovery of soil and pine tree canopy after late prescribed burning in a semi-arid landscape.

Climate change worsening due to global warming and progressive abandonment in rural areas mean that wildfires are increasing in extent and severity terms, and are one of the major disturbances in the Mediterranean Basin. To mitigate these disturbances, preventive management tools need to be used. Fire employment is being implemented, known as prescribed burnings, as forestry actions to change vegetation lines both vertically and horizontally to eliminate forest fuel load continuity. This study aimed to know the ecological effects of late prescribed burning treatments under mixed trees. Prescribed burns were carried out in October 2019 in the municipality of Ayna, Albacete (SE Spain). To assess the short-term (12-month) fire impact on soil, we measured soil respiration with a CO2 flow chamber and analyzed soil physico-chemical properties. We also used minidisc infiltrometers to analyze soil repellency and soil hydraulic conductivity over a 1-year monitoring period. In addition, we evaluated the effects on tree strata by performing chemical nature analyses of fallen needles in Pinus pinaster after prescribed burning. According to our initial hypotheses, the results did not show significant changes in any parameter evaluated during the study period. However, some variables were affected in the first 3 months, needlefall and in microbiological activity, such as variations in soil physico-chemical properties, which can be due to long dry seasons combined with prescribed burning. This study attempts to observe and make known the effects that low-intensity prescribed burning has on soil and needlefall, which are relevant for updating forest management tools.

Effects of race and ethnicity on perinatal outcomes in high-income and upper-middle-income countries: an individual participant data meta-analysis of 2 198 655 pregnancies.

BACKGROUND: Existing evidence on the effects of race and ethnicity on pregnancy outcomes is restricted to individual studies done within specific countries and health systems. We aimed to assess the impact of race and ethnicity on perinatal outcomes in high-income and upper-middle-income countries, and to ascertain whether the magnitude of disparities, if any, varied across geographical regions. METHODS: For this individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis we used data from the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications (IPPIC) Network of studies on pregnancy complications; the full dataset comprised 94 studies, 53 countries, and 4 539 640 pregnancies. We included studies that reported perinatal outcomes (neonatal death, stillbirth, preterm birth, and small-for-gestational-age babies) in at least two racial or ethnic groups (White, Black, south Asian, Hispanic, or other). For our two-step random-effects IPD meta-analysis, we did multiple imputations for confounder variables (maternal age, BMI, parity, and level of maternal education) selected with a directed acyclic graph. The primary outcomes were neonatal mortality and stillbirth. Secondary outcomes were preterm birth and a small-for-gestational-age baby. We estimated the association of race and ethnicity with perinatal outcomes using a multivariate logistic regression model and reported this association with odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs. We also did a subgroup analysis of studies by geographical region. FINDINGS: 51 studies from 20 high-income and upper-middle-income countries, comprising 2 198 655 pregnancies, were eligible for inclusion in this IPD meta-analysis. Neonatal death was twice as likely in babies born to Black women than in babies born to White women (OR 2·00, 95% CI 1·44-2·78), as was stillbirth (2·16, 1·46-3·19), and babies born to Black women were at increased risk of preterm birth (1·65, 1·46-1·88) and being small for gestational age (1·39, 1·13-1·72). Babies of women categorised as Hispanic had a three-times increased risk of neonatal death (OR 3·34, 95% CI 2·77-4·02) than did those born to White women, and those born to south Asian women were at increased risk of preterm birth (OR 1·26, 95% CI 1·07-1·48) and being small for gestational age (1·61, 1·32-1·95). The effects of race and ethnicity on preterm birth and small-for-gestational-age babies did not vary across regions. INTERPRETATION: Globally, among underserved groups, babies born to Black women had consistently poorer perinatal outcomes than White women after adjusting for maternal characteristics, although the risks varied for other groups. The effects of race and ethnicity on adverse perinatal outcomes did not vary by region. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research, Wellbeing of Women.

Sample size requirement in trials that use the composite endpoint major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE): new insights.

BACKGROUND: The real impact of the degree of association (DoA) between endpoint components of a composite endpoint (CE) on sample size requirement (SSR) has not been explored. We estimate the impact of the DoA between death and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) on SSR of trials using use the CE of major adverse cardiac events (MACE). METHODS: A systematic review and quantitative synthesis of trials that include MACE as the primary outcome through search strategies in MEDLINE and EMBASE electronic databases. We limited to articles published in journals indexed in the first quartile of the Cardiac & Cardiovascular Systems category (Journal Citation Reports, 2015-2020). The authors were contacted to estimate the DoA between death and AMI using joint probability and correlation. We analyzed the SSR variation using the DoA estimated from RCTs. RESULTS: Sixty-three of 134 publications that reported event rates and the therapy effect in all component endpoints were included in the quantitative synthesis. The most frequent combination was death, AMI, and revascularization (n = 20; 31.8%). The correlation between death and AMI, estimated from 5 trials¸ oscillated between - 0.02 and 0.31. SSR varied from 14,602 in the scenario with the strongest correlation to 12,259 in the scenario with the weakest correlation; the relative impact was 16%. CONCLUSIONS: The DoA between death and AMI is highly variable and may lead to a considerable SSR variation in a trial including MACE.

Juvenile Dermatomyositis: what comes next? Long-term outcomes in childhood myositis from a patient perspective.

BACKGROUND: To describe long-term outcomes in JDM using patient questionnaires and link to longitudinal, prospectively collected data for each patient within the Juvenile Dermatomyositis Cohort and Biomarker Study, UK and Ireland (JDCBS) to determine outcome predictors.  METHODS: JDCBS participants aged ≥ 16y completed the SF36, HAQ and a questionnaire regarding current disease features, medications, education and employment. Data collected from the JDCBS included disease subtype, demographics, clinical and laboratory features. Intensity indices were calculated for physician VAS, modified skin DAS, CMAS and MMT8 by dividing area under the curve (AUC) from longitudinal score trajectories by duration of study follow-up (y). Relationships between questionnaire and JDCBS clinical / laboratory data were investigated fitting statistical models appropriate for cross sectional and longitudinal data. RESULTS: Of 190 questionnaires sent, 84 (44%) were returned. Average age of respondents was 20.6 years (SD 3.9), time since diagnosis was 12.4 years (SD 5.0), age at onset was 9.2 years (SD 4.3), female to male ratio 4.25:1. Forty-nine (59%) self-reported persistently active disease, 54 (65%) were still taking immunosuppressive medication. 14/32 at school/higher education reported myositis adversely affecting academic results. 18-24 year-olds were twice as likely to be unemployed compared the UK population (OR = 0.456, 95% CI 0.24, 0.84, p = 0.001). Participants ≥ 18 years were three times as likely to be living with a parent/guardian (OR = 3.39, p < 0.001). SF36 MCS and MMT8 intensity index scores were significantly correlated (ρ = 0.328, p = 0.007). CONCLUSIONS: After 12.4 years, questionnaire responders reported self-perceived high rates of persistently active disease and medication use, reduced rates of employment and were more likely to live with a parent/guardian. Perceived persistently active muscle disease appeared to affect quality of life in these patients and was the most significant contributor to long-term outcomes. Our findings highlight the importance of including the patient perspective in the assessment of long term outcomes, so that that we can start to target initial management strategies more effectively based on a combination of clinical and patient-reported data.

Predicting major complications in patients undergoing laparoscopic and open hysterectomy for benign indications.

BACKGROUND: Hysterectomy, the most common gynecological operation, requires surgeons to counsel women about their operative risks. We aimed to develop and validate multivariable logistic regression models to predict major complications of laparoscopic or abdominal hysterectomy for benign conditions. METHODS: We obtained routinely collected health administrative data from the English National Health Service (NHS) from 2011 to 2018. We defined major complications based on core outcomes for postoperative complications including ureteric, gastrointestinal and vascular injury, and wound complications. We specified 11 predictors a priori. We used internal-external cross-validation to evaluate discrimination and calibration across 7 NHS regions in the development cohort. We validated the final models using data from an additional NHS region. RESULTS: We found that major complications occurred in 4.4% (3037/68 599) of laparoscopic and 4.9% (6201/125 971) of abdominal hysterectomies. Our models showed consistent discrimination in the development cohort (laparoscopic, C-statistic 0.61, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.60 to 0.62; abdominal, C-statistic 0.67, 95% CI 0.64 to 0.70) and similar or better discrimination in the validation cohort (laparoscopic, C-statistic 0.67, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.69; abdominal, C-statistic 0.67, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.69). Adhesions were most predictive of complications in both models (laparoscopic, odds ratio [OR] 1.92, 95% CI 1.73 to 2.13; abdominal, OR 2.46, 95% CI 2.27 to 2.66). Other factors predictive of complications included adenomyosis in the laparoscopic model, and Asian ethnicity and diabetes in the abdominal model. Protective factors included age and diagnoses of menstrual disorders or benign adnexal mass in both models and diagnosis of fibroids in the abdominal model. INTERPRETATION: Personalized risk estimates from these models, which showed moderate discrimination, can inform clinical decision-making for people with benign conditions who may require hysterectomy.

The COVID-19 pandemic effect on the prehospital Madrid stroke code metrics and diagnostic accuracy.

BACKGROUND: Only very few studies have investigated the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the pre-hospital stroke code protocol. During the first wave, Spain was one of the most affected countries by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus disease pandemic. This health catastrophe overshadowed other pathologies, such as acute stroke, the leading cause of death among women and the leading cause of disability among adults. Any interference in the stroke code protocol can delay the administration of reperfusion treatment for acute ischemic strokes, leading to a worse patient prognosis. We aimed to compare the performance of the stroke code during the first wave of the pandemic with the same period of the previous year. METHODS: This was a multicentre interrupted time-series observational study of the cohort of stroke codes of SUMMA 112 and of the ten hospitals with a stroke unit in the Community of Madrid. We established two groups according to the date on which they were attended: the first during the dates with the highest daily cumulative incidence of the first wave of the COVID-19 (from February 27 to June 15, 2020), and the second, the same period of the previous year (from February 27 to June 15, 2019). To assess the performance of the stroke code, we compared each of the pre-hospital emergency service time periods, the diagnostic accuracy (proportion of stroke codes with a final diagnosis of acute stroke out of the total), the proportion of patients treated with reperfusion therapies, and the in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: SUMMA 112 activated the stroke code in 966 patients (514 in the pre-pandemic group and 452 pandemic). The call management time increased by 9% (95% CI: -0.11; 0.91; p value = 0.02), and the time on scene increased by 12% (95% CI: 2.49; 5.93; p value = <0.01). Diagnostic accuracy, and the proportion of patients treated with reperfusion therapies remained stable. In-hospital mortality decreased by 4% (p = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: During the first wave, a prolongation of the time "on the scene" of the management of the 112 calls, and of the hospital admission was observed. Prehospital diagnostic accuracy and the proportion of patients treated at the hospital level with intravenous thrombolysis or mechanical thrombectomy were not altered with respect to the previous year, showing the resilience of the stroke network and the emergency medical service.

Development, validation and clinical utility of a risk prediction model for adverse pregnancy outcomes in women with gestational diabetes: The PeRSonal GDM model.

Background: The ability to calculate the absolute risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes for an individual woman with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) would allow preventative and therapeutic interventions to be delivered to women at high-risk, sparing women at low-risk from unnecessary care. We aimed to develop, validate and evaluate the clinical utility of a prediction model for adverse pregnancy outcomes in women with GDM. Methods: A prediction model development and validation study was conducted on data from a observational cohort. Participants included all women with GDM from three metropolitan tertiary teaching hospitals in Melbourne, Australia. The development cohort comprised those who delivered between 1 July 2017 to 30 June 2018 and the validation cohort those who delivered between 1 July 2018 to 31 December 2018. The main outcome was a composite of critically important maternal and perinatal complications (hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, large-for-gestational age neonate, neonatal hypoglycaemia requiring intravenous therapy, shoulder dystocia, perinatal death, neonatal bone fracture and nerve palsy). Model performance was measured in terms of discrimination and calibration and clinical utility evaluated using decision curve analysis. Findings: The final PeRSonal (Prediction for Risk Stratified care for women with GDM) model included body mass index, maternal age, fasting and 1-hour glucose values (75-g oral glucose tolerance test), gestational age at GDM diagnosis, Southern and Central Asian ethnicity, East Asian ethnicity, nulliparity, past delivery of an large-for-gestational age neonate, past pre-eclampsia, GWG until GDM diagnosis, and family history of diabetes. The composite adverse pregnancy outcome occurred in 27% (476/1747) of women in the development (1747 women) and in 26% (244/955) in the validation (955 women) cohorts. The model showed excellent calibration with slope of 0.99 (95% CI 0.75 to 1.23) and acceptable discrimination (c-statistic 0.68; 95% CI 0.64 to 0.72) when temporally validated. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the model was useful across a range of predicted probability thresholds between 0.15 and 0.85 for adverse pregnancy outcomes compared to the alternatives of managing all women with GDM as if they will or will not have an adverse pregnancy outcome. Interpretation: The PeRSonal GDM model comprising of routinely available clinical data shows compelling performance, is transportable across time, and has clinical utility across a range of predicted probabilities. Further external validation of the model to a more disparate population is now needed to assess the generalisability to different centres, community based care and low resource settings, other healthcare systems and to different GDM diagnostic criteria. Funding: This work is supported by the Mothers and Gestational Diabetes in Australia 2 NHMRC funded project #1170847.

Post-fire management effects on hillslope-stream sediment connectivity in a Mediterranean forest ecosystem.

Forest fires intensify sediment transport and aggravate local and off-site consequences of soil erosion. This study evaluates the influence of post-fire measures on structural and functional sediment connectivity (SC) in five fire-affected Mediterranean catchments, which include 929 sub-catchments, by using the "aggregated index of connectivity" (AIC) at two temporal scenarios: I) immediately after the fire and before implementing post-fire practices ('Pre-man'), and II) two years after the fire ('Post-man'). The latter includes all the emergency stabilization practices, that are hillslope barriers, check-dams and afforestation. The stream system was set as the target of the computation (STR), to be representative of intense rainfall-runoff events with effective sediment delivery outside the catchments. Output normalization (AICN) allows comparing the results of the five basins between them. The sedimentological analysis is based on specific sediment yield (SSY) -measured at the check-dams installed after the fire -, and this data is used for output evaluation. Stream density and slope variables were the most influential factors on AICN-STR results at the sub-catchment scale. Post-fire hillslope treatments (barriers when built in high densities and afforestation) significantly reduced AICN-STR in comparison with untreated areas in both structural and functional approaches. Despite the presence of hillslope treatments, the higher erosive rainfall conditions resulted in higher AICN-STR values in the Post-man scenario (functional approach). A positive and good correlation was found between the measured SSY and the AICN-STR changes due to the post-fire practices and vegetation recovery, showing the good correspondence of the computation results and the real sediment dynamics of the studied catchments. Overall, AICN demonstrated to be a useful and versatile tool for post-fire management, which needs further research to optimize its applicability.

The Grief and Bereavement Experiences of Informal Caregivers: A Scoping Review of the North American Literature.

Background: Informal caregivers are a significant part of the hospice and palliative care landscape as members of the interdisciplinary care team. Despite this, little is known about the impact this responsibility has on informal caregivers' experiences of grief and bereavement. Objective: To address this, a scoping review of the literature was conducted to explore the current state of knowledge toward grief and bereavement of informal caregivers of adult/geriatric patients in the hospice and palliative/end-of-life care realm within North America. Methods: Using Arksey and O'Malley's 5-step framework, key electronic health care and social sciences databases (eg, CINAHL, MEDLINE, ProQuest Sociological Abstracts, PsycINFO) alongside gray literature sources were searched and screened against inclusion and exclusion criteria. A thematic content analysis was used to identify key themes. Results: 29 articles met the final inclusion criteria with 3 central themes emerging: (1) mediators of grief, (2) grief experiences, and (3) types of grief. Discussion: Informal caregivers encounter unique grief and bereavement experiences: The range of psychosocial outcomes, both negative and positive, can be affected by various mediators such as caregiver burden, demographics, disease type of the patient being cared for, etc. Bereavement interventions must be designed with the mediators of grief in mind. Conclusions: Understanding the nuances of informal caregivers' experiences with grief and bereavement will inform and advance practice, policy, and research. Practitioners/clinicians should be further educated on how to properly acknowledge the complexity of grief and bereavement for informal caregivers, specifically paying attention to mediators. Further research needs to consider the role of culture.

Benefits of applying organic amendments from recycled wastes for fungal community growth in restored soils of a limestone quarry in a semiarid environment.

Applying organic amendments to recover physical, chemical, and biological qualities of soil may enable recovery of soils degraded by mining in semiarid climates. This study's aim was to investigate the development and changes in the composition of fungal communities in restored soils with five different types of organic amendments (two types of vegetable compost and sewage sludge compost, and a mixture of both) compared with unamended soils and surrounding natural soils and to examine the relationships between the fungal taxa, the new physico-chemical and biological soil properties of technosoils after 18 months of restoration, and natural soils. Restoration improved soil quality and fungal diversity, placing these soils in an intermediate position between unrestored soils (with no fungi present) and undisturbed reference soils, which were the most fungal diverse. Sewage-treated soils and their mixtures showed high nitrogen and carbohydrate content as well as high basal respiration and fatty acid content, suggesting that they provided readily biodegradable organic matter. In contrast, greenhouse compost-treated soils showed high total organic carbon and polyphenol content, whereas garden compost-treated soils showed intermediate values. The biological soil properties of both composts showed were similar to those of the reference soils, suggesting that composts contained more resilient organic matter. Organic amendments of dissimilar origin caused significantly different fungal soil communities at the genus level among the restored soils. Results indicated that soil pH, electrical conductivity, total nitrogen content, soil basal respiration, fungi/bacteria-PLFA ratio, and dehydrogenase and ß-glucosidase activities, together with Pearson's correlations, revealed that these properties and nutrient content (total organic carbon, C/N ratio, carbohydrates, and polyphenols) influenced 40 soil fungal taxa. Therefore, the organic amendments led to changes in soil properties that favoured plant cover by promoting the soil fungal community growth beneficial to the carbon cycle and symbiotic with plants.

Personalising the risk of conversion from laparoscopic to open hysterectomy in benign conditions: Development and external validation of risk prediction models.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate novel prediction models to personalise the risk of conversion from laparoscopic to open hysterectomy in benign conditions. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTINGS: English NHS Hospitals between 2011 and 2018. POPULATION: 68 752 women undergoing laparoscopic hysterectomy for benign conditions. METHODS: We developed two multivariable logistic models using readily available clinical information, one for the pre-operative setting and another for operative decision-making using additional surgical information, using 2011-2016 data in five regions (24 806 women). We validated them (a) temporally in the same regions using 2017-2018 data (12 438 women); (b) geographically in the same time-period using data from three different regions (22 024 women); and (c) temporally and geographically using 2017-2018 data in three different regions (9484 women). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Conversion from laparoscopic to open hysterectomy. RESULTS: Conversions occurred in 6.8% (1687/24 806) of hysterectomies in the development group, and in 5.5% (681/12 438) in the temporal, 5.9% (1297/22 204) in the geographical and 5.2% (488/9484) in the temporal and geographical validation groups. In the development cohort, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values for the pre-operative and operative models were 0.65 and 0.67, respectively. In the validation cohorts the corresponding values were 0.65 and 0.66 (temporal), 0.66 and 0.68 (geographical) and 0.65 and 0.68 (temporal and geographical), respectively. Factors predictive of conversion included age, Asian ethnicity, obesity, fibroids, adenomyosis, endometriosis and adhesions. Adhesions were the most predictive (odds ratio 2.54, 95% confidence interval 2.22-2.90). CONCLUSION: The models for predicting conversions showed acceptable performance and transferability. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Novel tool to personalise the risk of conversion from laparoscopic to open hysterectomy in benign conditions.