Mothers' school starting age and infant health.

We study the effects of women's school starting age on the infant health of their offspring. In Spain, children born in December start school a year earlier than those born the following January, despite being essentially the same age. We follow a regression discontinuity design to compare the health at birth of the children of women born in January versus the previous December, using administrative, population-level data. We find small and insignificant effects on average weight at birth, but, compared to the children of December-born mothers, the children of January-born mothers are more likely to have very low birthweight. We then show that January-born women have the same educational attainment and the same partnership dynamics as December-born women. However, they finish school later and are (several months) older when they have their first child. Our results suggest that maternal age is a plausible mechanism behind our estimated impacts of school starting age on infant health.

Early adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions and COVID-19 mortality.

To contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries around the globe have adopted social distancing measures. Yet, establishing the causal effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) is difficult because they do not occur arbitrarily. We exploit a quasi-random source of variation for identification purposes -namely, regional differences in the placement on the pandemic curve following an unexpected and nationwide lockdown. Our results reveal that regions where the outbreak had just started when the lockdown was implemented had 1.62 fewer daily deaths per 100,000 inhabitants when compared to regions for which the lockdown arrived 10+ days after the pandemic's outbreak. As a result, a total of 4,642 total deaths (232 deaths/daily) could have been avoided by the end of our period of study -a figure representing 23% of registered deaths in Spain at the time. We rule out differential pre-COVID mortality trends and self-distancing behaviors across the compared regions prior to the swift lockdown, which was also uniformly observed nationwide. In addition, we provide supporting evidence for contagion deceleration as the main mechanism behind the effectiveness of the early adoption of NPIs in lowering the death rate, rather than an increased healthcare capacity.

Austerity, healthcare provision, and health outcomes in Spain.

The recession that started in the United States in December 2007 has had a significant impact on the Spanish economy through a large increase in the unemployment rate and a long recession which led to tough austerity measures imposed on public finances. Taking advantage of this quasi-natural experiment, we use data from the Spanish Ministry of Health from 1996 to 2015 to provide novel causal evidence on the short-term impact of changes in healthcare provision and regulations on health outcomes. The fact that regional governments have discretionary powers in deciding healthcare budgets and that austerity measures have not been implemented uniformly across Spain helps isolate the impact of these policy changes on health indicators of the Spanish population. Using Ruhm's (Q J Econ 115(2):617-650, 2000) fixed effects model, we find that medical staff and hospital bed reductions account for a significant increase in mortality rates from circulatory diseases and external causes, but not from other causes of death. Similarly, mortality rates do not seem to be robustly affected by the 2012 changes in retirees' pharmaceutical co-payments and access restrictions for illegal immigrants. Our results are robust to changes in model specification and sample selection and are primarily driven by accidental and emergency deaths rather than in-hospital mortality, which suggests a larger role for decreases in accessibility rather than decreases in healthcare quality as impact channels.

New evidence on breastfeeding and postpartum depression: the importance of understanding women's intentions.

This study aimed to identify the causal effect of breastfeeding on postpartum depression (PPD), using data on mothers from a British survey, the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Multivariate linear and logistic regressions were performed to investigate the effects of breastfeeding on mothers' mental health measured at 8 weeks, 8, 21 and 32 months postpartum. The estimated effect of breastfeeding on PPD differed according to whether women had planned to breastfeed their babies, and by whether they had shown signs of depression during pregnancy. For mothers who were not depressed during pregnancy, the lowest risk of PPD was found among women who had planned to breastfeed, and who had actually breastfed their babies, while the highest risk was found among women who had planned to breastfeed and had not gone on to breastfeed. We conclude that the effect of breastfeeding on maternal depression is extremely heterogeneous, being mediated both by breastfeeding intentions during pregnancy and by mothers' mental health during pregnancy. Our results underline the importance of providing expert breastfeeding support to women who want to breastfeed; but also, of providing compassionate support for women who had intended to breastfeed, but who find themselves unable to.