Uncertainty in phosphorus fluxes and budgets across the US long-term agroecosystem research network.

Phosphorus (P) budgets can be useful tools for understanding nutrient cycling and quantifying the effectiveness of nutrient management planning and policies; however, uncertainties in agricultural nutrient budgets are not often quantitatively assessed. The objective of this study was to evaluate uncertainty in P fluxes (fertilizer/manure application, atmospheric deposition, irrigation, crop removal, surface runoff, and leachate) and the propagation of these uncertainties to annual P budgets. Data from 56 cropping systems in the P-FLUX database, which spans diverse rotations and landscapes across the United States and Canada, were evaluated. Results showed that across cropping systems, average annual P budget was 22.4 kg P ha-1 (range = -32.7 to 340.6 kg P ha-1 ), with an average uncertainty of 13.1 kg P ha-1 (range = 1.0-87.1 kg P ha-1 ). Fertilizer/manure application and crop removal were the largest P fluxes across cropping systems and, as a result, accounted for the largest fraction of uncertainty in annual budgets (61% and 37%, respectively). Remaining fluxes individually accounted for <2% of the budget uncertainty. Uncertainties were large enough that determining whether P was increasing, decreasing, or not changing was inconclusive in 39% of the budgets evaluated. Findings indicate that more careful and/or direct measurements of inputs, outputs, and stocks are needed. Recommendations for minimizing uncertainty in P budgets based on the results of the study were developed. Quantifying, communicating, and constraining uncertainty in budgets among production systems and multiple geographies is critical for engaging stakeholders, developing local and national strategies for P reduction, and informing policy.

Long-term effect of poultry litter application on phosphorus balances and runoff losses.

Assessment of annual and cumulative impacts of phosphorus (P) management strategies at field and watershed scales is needed to improve crop use efficiency and minimize environmental impacts. The objectives of this study were (a) to assess relationships among P balance, soil test P (STP) concentration, and runoff dissolved reactive P (DRP) concentration from fields receiving different poultry litter application rates (0.0-13.4 Mg ha-1 ) and (b) to determine the effect of long-term poultry litter application to fields on watershed DRP loss. Nutrient management practices, crop yield, STP, and runoff losses were assessed from nine fields and two watersheds located near Riesel, TX, from 2000 to 2015. Field-scale P balances were largely controlled by P application rate and exhibited a positive relationship with STP and runoff DRP flow-weighted mean concentration. Using a before-after control-impact experimental design that included monitoring at both field and watershed scales showed the influence of field P management on watershed DRP loss varied according to both source (i.e., P application rate, impacted area) and transport (i.e., hydrological connectivity) factors. Increased risk of watershed DRP loss was observed during wet years and years with two poultry litter applications to fields within the watershed. The percentage of the total watershed area receiving high rates of poultry litter also played a critical role in determining the risk of DRP loss. Findings highlight the impact of long-term P management strategies on DRP loss at both field and watershed scales and show the importance of incorporating hydrologic connectivity when assessing conservation effects on water quality.