Information flow in first-order potts model phase transition.

Phase transitions abound in nature and society, and, from species extinction to stock market collapse, their prediction is of widespread importance. In earlier work we showed that Global Transfer Entropy, a general measure of information flow, was found to peaks away from the transition on the disordered side for the Ising model, a canonical second order transition. Here we show that (a) global transfer entropy also peaks on the disordered side of the transition of finite first order transitions, such as ecology dynamics on coral reefs, which have latent heat and no correlation length divergence, and (b) analysis of information flow across state boundaries unifies both transition orders. We obtain the first information-theoretic result for the high-order Potts model and the first demonstration of early warning of a first order transition. The unexpected earlier finding that global transfer entropy peaks on the disordered side of a transition is also found for finite first order systems, albeit not in the thermodynamic limit. By noting that the interface length of clusters in each phase is the dominant region of information flow, we unify the information theoretic behaviour of first and second order transitions.

Using Shakespeare's Sotto Voce to Determine True Identity From Text.

Little is known of the private life of William Shakespeare, but he is famous for his collection of plays and poems, even though many of the works attributed to him were published anonymously. Determining the identity of Shakespeare has fascinated scholars for 400 years, and four significant figures in English literary history have been suggested as likely alternatives to Shakespeare for some disputed works: Bacon, de Vere, Stanley, and Marlowe. A myriad of computational and statistical tools and techniques have been used to determine the true authorship of his works. Many of these techniques rely on basic statistical correlations, word counts, collocated word groups, or keyword density, but no one method has been decided on. We suggest that an alternative technique that uses word semantics to draw on personality can provide an accurate profile of a person. To test this claim, we analyse the works of Shakespeare, Christopher Marlowe, and Elizabeth Cary. We use Word Accumulation Curves, Hierarchical Clustering overlays, Principal Component Analysis, and Linear Discriminant Analysis techniques in combination with RPAS, a multi-faceted text analysis approach that draws on a writer's personality, or self to identify subtle characteristics within a person's writing style. Here we find that RPAS can separate the known authored works of Shakespeare from Marlowe and Cary. Further, it separates their contested works, works suspected of being written by others. While few authorship identification techniques identify self from the way a person writes, we demonstrate that these stylistic characteristics are as applicable 400 years ago as they are today and have the potential to be used within cyberspace for law enforcement purposes.

Quantifying Network Dynamics and Information Flow Across Chinese Social Media During the African Ebola Outbreak.

OBJECTIVE: Social media provides us with a new platform on which to explore how the public responds to disasters and, of particular importance, how they respond to the emergence of infectious diseases such as Ebola. Provided it is appropriately informed, social media offers a potentially powerful means of supporting both early detection and effective containment of communicable diseases, which is essential for improving disaster medicine and public health preparedness. METHODS: The 2014 West African Ebola outbreak is a particularly relevant contemporary case study on account of the large number of annual arrivals from Africa, including Chinese employees engaged in projects in Africa. Weibo (Weibo Corp, Beijing, China) is China's most popular social media platform, with more than 2 billion users and over 300 million daily posts, and offers great opportunity to monitor early detection and promotion of public health awareness. RESULTS: We present a proof-of-concept study of a subset of Weibo posts during the outbreak demonstrating potential and identifying priorities for improving the efficacy and accuracy of information dissemination. We quantify the evolution of the social network topology within Weibo relating to the efficacy of information sharing. CONCLUSIONS: We show how relatively few nodes in the network can have a dominant influence over both the quality and quantity of the information shared. These findings make an important contribution to disaster medicine and public health preparedness from theoretical and methodological perspectives for dealing with epidemics. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;12:26-37).

Reflectance Prediction Modelling for Residual-Based Hyperspectral Image Coding.

A Hyperspectral (HS) image provides observational powers beyond human vision capability but represents more than 100 times the data compared to a traditional image. To transmit and store the huge volume of an HS image, we argue that a fundamental shift is required from the existing "original pixel intensity"-based coding approaches using traditional image coders (e.g., JPEG2000) to the "residual"-based approaches using a video coder for better compression performance. A modified video coder is required to exploit spatial-spectral redundancy using pixel-level reflectance modelling due to the different characteristics of HS images in their spectral and shape domain of panchromatic imagery compared to traditional videos. In this paper a novel coding framework using Reflectance Prediction Modelling (RPM) in the latest video coding standard High Efficiency Video Coding (HEVC) for HS images is proposed. An HS image presents a wealth of data where every pixel is considered a vector for different spectral bands. By quantitative comparison and analysis of pixel vector distribution along spectral bands, we conclude that modelling can predict the distribution and correlation of the pixel vectors for different bands. To exploit distribution of the known pixel vector, we estimate a predicted current spectral band from the previous bands using Gaussian mixture-based modelling. The predicted band is used as the additional reference band together with the immediate previous band when we apply the HEVC. Every spectral band of an HS image is treated like it is an individual frame of a video. In this paper, we compare the proposed method with mainstream encoders. The experimental results are fully justified by three types of HS dataset with different wavelength ranges. The proposed method outperforms the existing mainstream HS encoders in terms of rate-distortion performance of HS image compression.

Information flow in a kinetic Ising model peaks in the disordered phase.

There is growing evidence that for a range of dynamical systems featuring complex interactions between large ensembles of interacting elements, mutual information peaks at order-disorder phase transitions. We conjecture that, by contrast, information flow in such systems will generally peak strictly on the disordered side of a phase transition. This conjecture is verified for a ferromagnetic 2D lattice Ising model with Glauber dynamics and a transfer entropy-based measure of systemwide information flow. Implications of the conjecture are considered, in particular, that for a complex dynamical system in the process of transitioning from disordered to ordered dynamics (a mechanism implicated, for example, in financial market crashes and the onset of some types of epileptic seizures); information dynamics may be able to predict an imminent transition.

Transfer entropy as a log-likelihood ratio.

Transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between joint processes, has steadily gained popularity in the analysis of complex stochastic dynamics in diverse fields, including the neurosciences, ecology, climatology, and econometrics. We show that for a broad class of predictive models, the log-likelihood ratio test statistic for the null hypothesis of zero transfer entropy is a consistent estimator for the transfer entropy itself. For finite Markov chains, furthermore, no explicit model is required. In the general case, an asymptotic χ2 distribution is established for the transfer entropy estimator. The result generalizes the equivalence in the Gaussian case of transfer entropy and Granger causality, a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression, and establishes a fundamental connection between directed information transfer and causality in the Wiener-Granger sense.

The perceptual cues that reshape expert reasoning.

The earliest stages in our perception of the world have a subtle but powerful influence on later thought processes; they provide the contextual cues within which our thoughts are framed and they adapt to many different environments throughout our lives. Understanding the changes in these cues is crucial to understanding how our perceptual ability develops, but these changes are often difficult to quantify in sufficiently complex tasks where objective measures of development are available. Here we simulate perceptual learning using neural networks and demonstrate fundamental changes in these cues as a function of skill. These cues are cognitively grouped together to form perceptual templates that enable rapid 'whole scene' categorisation of complex stimuli. Such categories reduce the computational load on our capacity limited thought processes, they inform our higher cognitive processes and they suggest a framework of perceptual pre-processing that captures the central role of perception in expertise.

Concept formation: 'object' attributes dynamically inhibited from conscious awareness.

We advance a dominant neural strategy for facilitating conceptual thought. Concepts are groupings of "object" attributes. Once the brain learns such critical groupings, the "object" attributes are inhibited from conscious awareness. We see the whole, not the parts. The details are inhibited when the concept network is activated, ie. the inhibition is dynamic and can be switched on and off. Autism is suggested to be the state of retarded concept formation. Our model predicts the possibility of accessing nonconscious information by artificially disinhibiting (turning off) the inhibiting networks associated with concept formation, using transcranial magnetic brain stimulation (TMS). For example, this opens the door for the restoration of perfect pitch, for recalling detail, for acquiring accent-free second languages beyond puberty, and even for enhancing creativity. The model further shows how unusual autistic savant skills as well as certain psychopathologies can be due respectively to privileged or inadvertent access to information that is normally inhibited from conscious awareness.