Missed Fog?: On the Potential of Obtaining Observations at Increased Resolution During Shallow Fog Events.

Conventional in situ observations of meteorological variables are restricted to a limited number of levels near the surface, with the lowest observation often made around 1-m height. This can result in missed observations of both shallow fog, and the initial growth stage of thicker fog layers. At the same time, numerical experiments have demonstrated the need for high vertical grid resolution in the near-surface layer to accurately simulate the onset of fog; this requires correspondingly high-resolution observational data for validation. A two-week field campaign was conducted in November 2017 at the Cabauw Experimental Site for Atmospheric Research (CESAR) in the Netherlands. The aim was to observe the growth of shallow fog layers and assess the possibility of obtaining very high-resolution observations near the surface during fog events. Temperature and relative humidity were measured at centimetre resolution in the lowest 7 m using distributed temperature sensing. Further, a novel approach was employed to estimate visibility in the lowest 2.5 m using a camera and an extended light source. These observations were supplemented by the existing conventional sensors at the site, including those along a 200-m tall tower. Comparison between the increased-resolution observations and their conventional counterparts show the errors to be small, giving confidence in the reliability of the techniques. The increased resolution of the observations subsequently allows for detailed investigations of fog growth and evolution. This includes the observation of large temperature inversions in the lowest metre (up to 5 K) and corresponding regions of (super)saturation where the fog formed. Throughout the two-week observation period, fog was observed twice at the conventional sensor height of 2.0 m. Two additional low-visibility events were observed in the lowest 0-0.5 m using the camera-based observations, but were missed by the conventional sensors. The camera observations also showed the growth of shallow radiation fog, forming in the lowest 0.5 m as early as two hours before it was observed at the conventional height of 2 m.

Scalar-Flux Similarity in the Layer Near the Surface Over Mountainous Terrain.

The scaled standard deviations of temperature and humidity are investigated in complex terrain. The study area is a steep Alpine valley, with six measurement sites of different slope, orientation and roughness (i-Box experimental site, Inn Valley, Austria). Examined here are several assumptions forming the basis of Monin-Obukhov similarity theory (MOST), including constant turbulence fluxes with height and the degree of self-correlation between the involved turbulence variables. Since the basic assumptions for the applicability of the MOST approach-horizontally homogeneous and flat conditions-are violated, the analysis is performed based on a local similarity hypothesis. The scaled standard deviations as a function of local stability are compared with previous studies from horizontally homogeneous and flat terrain, horizontally inhomogeneous and flat terrain, weakly inhomogeneous and flat terrain, as well as complex terrain. As a reference, similarity relations for unstable and stable conditions are evaluated using turbulence data from the weakly inhomogeneous and flat terrain of the Cabauw experimental site in the Netherlands, and assessed with the same post-processing method as the i-Box data. Significant differences from the reference curve and also among the i-Box sites are noted, especially for data derived from the i-Box sites with steep slopes. These differences concern the slope and the magnitude of the best-fit curves, illustrating the site dependence of any similarity theory.

Understanding and Reducing False Alarms in Observational Fog Prediction.

The reduction in visibility that accompanies fog events presents a hazard to human safety and navigation. However, accurate fog prediction remains elusive, with numerical methods often unable to capture the conditions of fog formation, and observational methods having high false-alarm rates in order to obtain high hit rates of prediction. In this work, 5 years of observations from the Cabauw Experimental Site for Atmospheric Research are used to further investigate how false alarms may be reduced using the statistical method for diagnosing radiation-fog events from observations developed by Menut et al. (Boundary-Layer Meteorol 150:277-297, 2014). The method is assessed for forecast lead times of 1-6 h and implementing four optimization schemes to tune the prediction for different needs, compromising between confidence and risk. Prediction scores improve significantly with decreased lead time, with the possibility of achieving a hit rate of over 90% and a false-alarm rate of just 13%. In total, a further 31 combinations of predictive variables beyond the original combination are explored (including mostly, e.g., variables related to moisture and static stability of the boundary layer). Little change to the prediction scores indicates any appropriate combination of variables that measure saturation, turbulence, and near-surface cooling can be used. The remaining false-alarm periods are manually assessed, identifying the lack of spatio-temporal information (such as the temporal evolution of the local conditions and the advective history of the airmass) as the ultimate limiting factor in the methodology's predictive capabilities. Future observational studies are recommended that investigate the near-surface evolution of fog and the role of non-local heterogeneity on fog formation.