RESUMO
We use a regression discontinuity design to study the impacts of a noncontributory pension program covering one-third of Bolivian households during the COVID-19 pandemic. Becoming eligible for the program during the crisis increased the probability that households had a week's worth of food stocked by 25% and decreased the probability of going hungry by 40%. Although the program was not designed to provide emergency assistance, it provided unintended positive impacts during the crisis. The program's effects on hunger were particularly large for households that lost their livelihoods during the crisis and for low-income households. The results suggest that, during a systemic crisis, a preexisting near-universal pension program can quickly deliver positive impacts in line with the primary goals of a social safety net composed of an income-targeted cash transfer and an unemployment insurance program.
RESUMO
The current coronavirus pandemic is an unprecedented public health challenge that is having a devastating economic impact on households. Using a sample of 230,540 respondents to an online survey from 17 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, the study shows that the economic impacts are large and unequal: 45 percent of respondents report that a household member has lost their job and, among households owning small businesses, 59 percent of respondents report that a household member has closed their business. Among households with the lowest income prior to the pandemic, 71 percent report that a household member lost their job and 61 percent report that a household member has closed their business. Declines in food security and health are among the disproportionate impacts. The findings provide evidence that the current public health crisis will exacerbate economic inequality and provides some of the first estimates of the impact of the pandemic on the labor market and well-being in developing countries.
