Logistic regression model to predict acute uncomplicated and complicated appendicitis.

INTRODUCTION: While patients with acute uncomplicated appendicitis may be treated conservatively, those who suffer from complicated appendicitis require surgery. We describe a logistic regression equation to calculate the likelihood of acute uncomplicated appendicitis and complicated appendicitis in patients presenting to the emergency department with suspected acute appendicitis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A cohort of 895 patients who underwent appendicectomy were analysed retrospectively. Depending on the final histology, patients were divided into three groups; normal appendix, acute uncomplicated appendicitis and complicated appendicitis. Normal appendix was considered the reference category, while acute uncomplicated appendicitis and complicated appendicitis were the nominal categories. Multivariate and univariate regression models were undertaken to detect independent variables with significant odds ratio that can predict acute uncomplicated appendicitis and complicated appendicitis. Subsequently, a logistic regression equation was generated to produce the likelihood acute uncomplicated appendicitis and complicated appendicitis. RESULTS: Pathological diagnosis of normal appendix, acute uncomplicated appendicitis and complicated appendicitis was identified in 188 (21%), 525 (59%) and 182 patients (20%), respectively. The odds ratio from a univariate analysis to predict complicated appendicitis for age, female gender, log2 white cell count, log2 C-reactive protein and log2 bilirubin were 1.02 (95% confidence interval, CI, 1.01, 1.04), 2.37 (95% CI 1.51, 3.70), 9.74 (95% CI 5.41, 17.5), 1.57 (95% CI 1.40, 1.74), 2.08 (95% CI 1.56, 2.76), respectively. For the same variable, similar odds ratios were demonstrated in a multivariate analysis to predict complicated appendicitis and univariate and multivariate analysis to predict acute uncomplicated appendicitis. CONCLUSIONS: The likelihood of acute uncomplicated appendicitis and complicated appendicitis can be calculated by using the reported predictive equations integrated into a web application at www.appendistat.com. This will enable clinicians to determine the probability of appendicitis and the need for urgent surgery in case of complicated appendicitis.

Umbilical hernia following gastroschisis closure: a common event?

PURPOSE: To assess incidence and natural history of umbilical hernia following sutured and sutureless gastroschisis closure. METHODS: With audit approval, we undertook a retrospective clinical record review of all gastroschisis closures in our institution (2007-2013). Patient demographics, gastroschisis closure method and umbilical hernia occurrence were recorded. Data, presented as median (range), underwent appropriate statistical analysis. RESULTS: Fifty-three patients were identified, gestation 36 weeks (31-38), birth weight 2.39 kg (1-3.52) and 23 (43 %) were male. Fourteen patients (26 %) underwent sutureless closure: 12 primary, 2 staged; and 39 (74 %) sutured closure: 19 primary, 20 staged. Sutured closure was interrupted sutures in 24 patients, 11 pursestring and 4 not specified. Fifty patients were followed-up over 53 months (10-101) and 22 (44 %) developed umbilical hernias. There was a significantly greater hernia incidence following sutureless closure (p = 0.0002). In sutured closure, pursestring technique had the highest hernia rate (64 %). Seven patients underwent operative hernia closure; three secondary to another procedure. Seven patients had their hernias resolve. One patient was lost to follow-up and seven remain under observation with no reported complications. CONCLUSIONS: There is a significant umbilical hernia incidence following sutureless and pursestring sutured gastroschisis closure. This has not led to complications and the majority have not undergone repair.

Life after first-line chemotherapy in malignant pleural mesothelioma: a North-East England experience.

AIMS: The benefit of first-line chemotherapy in malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) has been established. However, this disease invariably progresses and little is known about how this disease subsequently relapses after initial treatment. Data on second-line treatment are also scarce, especially outside the context of a clinical trial. We conducted a review to observe the presentation of MPM patients when their disease progresses after initial therapy and the use of second-line therapy and its associated outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients were retrospectively identified from the Sunderland Royal Hospital and the Northern Centre for Cancer Care, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK. Data, including demographics, clinical presentation and treatment details at first line and beyond, together with its associated benefits, were collected. Related times to treatment failure (TTF), rates of symptom improvement and survival data were also collated. RESULTS: There were 62 evaluable patients in our series. At the time of data collection, 58 patients (94%) had relapsed. At disease progression, symptoms were usually similar to those at initial presentation, but in patients with prolonged TTF (>9 months) they were more likely to relapse with clinical lymphadenopathy in the neck and axilla compared with patients with TTF < or =9 months (52% vs 13%, respectively, P<0.05). Second-line treatment was given in 45% of patients. Twenty-one patients (36%) received second-line chemotherapy outside the context of a clinical trial and most had retreatment with pemetrexed-based chemotherapy due to a prolonged TTF. In patients treated with second-line therapy outside the remit of a clinical trial, a disease control rate was achieved in nine patients (43%, 95% confidence interval 22-64), whereas improvement in symptoms were noted in 13 patients (62%, 95% confidence interval 41-83). The median TTF in this setting was 6.5 months. CONCLUSION: Patients with a prolonged TTF after first-line treatment are more likely to relapse with neck and axillary lymphadenopathy. The use of second-line chemotherapy, including rechallenge treatment, in this disease is a viable option for a selected group of MPM patients.