Helping feed the world with rice innovations: CGIAR research adoption and socioeconomic impact on farmers.

Rice production has increased significantly with the efforts of international research centers and national governments in the past five decades. Nonetheless, productivity improvement still needs to accelerate in the coming years to feed the growing population that depends on rice for calories and nutrients. This challenge is compounded by the increasing scarcity of natural resources such as water and farmland. This article reviews 17 ex-post impact assessment studies published from 2016 to 2021 on rice varieties, agronomic practices, institutional arrangements, information and communication technologies, and post-harvest technologies used by rice farmers. From the review of these selected studies, we found that stress-tolerant varieties in Asia and Africa significantly increased rice yield and income. Additionally, institutional innovations, training, and natural resource management practices, such as direct-seeded rice, rodent control, and iron-toxicity removal, have had a considerable positive effect on smallholder rice farmers' economic well-being (income and rice yield). Additional positive impacts are expected from the important uptake of stress-tolerant varieties documented in several Asian, Latin American, and African countries.

Uncertainties in predicting rice yield by current crop models under a wide range of climatic conditions.

Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We evaluated 13 rice models against multi-year experimental yield data at four sites with diverse climatic conditions in Asia and examined whether different modeling approaches on major physiological processes attribute to the uncertainties of prediction to field measured yields and to the uncertainties of sensitivity to changes in temperature and CO2 concentration [CO2 ]. We also examined whether a use of an ensemble of crop models can reduce the uncertainties. Individual models did not consistently reproduce both experimental and regional yields well, and uncertainty was larger at the warmest and coolest sites. The variation in yield projections was larger among crop models than variation resulting from 16 global climate model-based scenarios. However, the mean of predictions of all crop models reproduced experimental data, with an uncertainty of less than 10% of measured yields. Using an ensemble of eight models calibrated only for phenology or five models calibrated in detail resulted in the uncertainty equivalent to that of the measured yield in well-controlled agronomic field experiments. Sensitivity analysis indicates the necessity to improve the accuracy in predicting both biomass and harvest index in response to increasing [CO2 ] and temperature.