Differences in Olivo-Cerebellar Circuit and Cerebellar Network Connectivity in Essential Tremor: a Resting State fMRI Study.

The olivo-cerebellar circuit is thought to play a crucial role in the pathophysiology of essential tremor (ET). Whether olivo-cerebellar circuit dysfunction is also present at rest, in the absence of clinical tremor and linked voluntary movement, remains unclear. Assessing this network in detail with fMRI is challenging, considering the brainstem is close to major arteries and pulsatile cerebrospinal fluid-filled spaces obscuring signals of interest. Here, we used methods tailored to the analysis of infratentorial structures. We hypothesize that the olivo-cerebellar circuit shows altered intra-network connectivity at rest and decreased functional coupling with other parts of the motor network in ET. In 17 ET patients and 19 healthy controls, we investigated using resting state fMRI intracerebellar functional and effective connectivity on a dedicated cerebellar atlas. With independent component analysis, we investigated data-driven cerebellar motor network activations during rest. Finally, whole-brain connectivity of cerebellar motor structures was investigated using identified components. In ET, olivo-cerebellar pathways show decreased functional connectivity compared with healthy controls. Effective connectivity analysis showed an increased inhibitory influence of the dentate nucleus towards the inferior olive. Cerebellar independent component analyses showed motor resting state networks are less strongly connected to the cerebral cortex compared to controls. Our results indicate the olivo-cerebellar circuit to be affected at rest. Also, the cerebellum is "disconnected" from the rest of the motor network. Aberrant activity, generated within the olivo-cerebellar circuit could, during action, spread towards other parts of the motor circuit and potentially underlie the characteristic tremor of this patient group.

Distinct cortical activity patterns in Parkinson's disease and essential tremor during a bimanual tapping task.

BACKGROUND: Parkinson's disease (PD) and essential tremor (ET) are neurodegenerative diseases characterized by movement deficits. Especially in PD, maintaining cyclic movement can be significantly disturbed due to pathological changes in the basal ganglia and the cerebellum. Providing external cues improves timing of these movements in PD and also affects ET. The aim of this study is to determine differences in cortical activation patterns in PD and ET patients during externally and internally cued movements. METHODS: Eleven PD patients, twelve ET patients, OFF tremor suppressing medication, and nineteen age-matched healthy controls (HC) were included and asked to perform a bimanual tapping task at two predefined cue frequencies. The auditory cue, a metronome sound presented at 2 or 4 Hz, was alternately switched on and off every 30 s. Tapping at two different frequencies were used since it is expected that different brain networks are involved at different frequencies as has been shown in previous studies. Cortical activity was recorded using a 64-channel EEG cap. To establish the cortical activation pattern in each group, the task related power (TRP) was calculated for each subject. For inter-groups analysis, EEG electrodes for divided into 5 different areas. RESULTS: Inter-group analysis revealed significant differences in areas responsible for motor planning, organization and regulation and involved in initiation, maintenance, coordination and planning of complex sequences of movements. Within the area of the primary motor cortex the ET group showed a significantly lower TRP than the HC group. In the area responsible for combining somatosensory, auditory and visual information both patient groups had a higher TRP than the HC group. CONCLUSIONS: Different neurological networks are involved during cued and non-cued movements in ET, PD and HC. Distinct cortical activation patterns were revealed using task related power calculations. Different activation patterns were revealed during the 2 and 4 Hz tapping task indicating different strategies to execute movements at these rates. The results suggest that a including a cued/non-cued tapping task during clinical decision making could be a valuable tool in an objective diagnostic protocol.

A Power Spectral Density-Based Method to Detect Tremor and Tremor Intermittency in Movement Disorders.

There is no objective gold standard to detect tremors. This concerns not only the choice of the algorithm and sensors, but methods are often designed to detect tremors in one specific group of patients during the performance of a specific task. Therefore, the aim of this study is twofold. First, an objective quantitative method to detect tremor windows (TWs) in accelerometer and electromyography recordings is introduced. Second, the tremor stability index (TSI) is determined to indicate the advantage of detecting TWs prior to analysis. Ten Parkinson's disease (PD) patients, ten essential tremor (ET) patients, and ten healthy controls (HC) performed a resting, postural and movement task. Data was split into 3-s windows, and the power spectral density was calculated for each window. The relative power around the peak frequency with respect to the power in the tremor band was used to classify the windows as either tremor or non-tremor. The method yielded a specificity of 96.45%, sensitivity of 84.84%, and accuracy of 90.80% of tremor detection. During tremors, significant differences were found between groups in all three parameters. The results suggest that the introduced method could be used to determine under which conditions and to which extent undiagnosed patients exhibit tremors.

Deficits in tapping accuracy and variability in tremor patients.

BACKGROUND: The basal ganglia and cerebellum are brain structures involved in movement initiation, execution and termination. They are thought to be involved in the tremor generation and movement deficits in Parkinson's disease (PD) and essential tremor (ET). Especially in PD, maintaining cyclic movement, such as walking or tapping can be significantly disturbed. Providing external cues improves timing of these movements in PD but its effect on ET has not yet been studied in depth. The aim of this study is to evaluate the usefulness of a bimanual tapping task as a tool during clinical decision making. METHOD: Hand movements and tremor was recorded using accelerometers and EMG (m. extensor carpi ulnaris) from PD and ET patients and healthy controls during a bimanual tapping task as a way to distinguish PD from ET. All subjects performed the tapping task at two different frequencies, 2 Hz and 4 Hz, with and without the presence of auditory cues. RESULTS: No significant intra-group differences were found in the patient groups. Acceleration data revealed significantly less accurate tapping and more variable tapping in PD than in ET and healthy controls. ET subjects tapped less accurate and with a greater variability than healthy controls during the 4 Hz tapping task. Most interestingly the tapping accuracy improved in PD patients when kinetic tremor was recorded with EMG during the task. CONCLUSION: Providing ET and PD patients with an external cue results in different tapping performances between patient groups and healthy controls. Furthermore, the findings suggest that kinetic tremor in PD enables patients to perform the task with a greater accuracy. So far this has not been shown in other studies.

Electrode Location in a Microelectrode Recording-Based Model of the Subthalamic Nucleus Can Predict Motor Improvement After Deep Brain Stimulation for Parkinson's Disease.

Motor improvement after deep brain stimulation (DBS) in the subthalamic nucleus (STN) may vary substantially between Parkinson's disease (PD) patients. Research into the relation between improvement and active contact location requires a correction for anatomical variation. We studied the relation between active contact location relative to the neurophysiological STN, estimated by the intraoperative microelectrode recordings (MER-based STN), and contralateral motor improvement after one year. A generic STN shape was transformed to fit onto the stereotactically defined MER sites. The location of 43 electrodes (26 patients), derived from MRI-fused CT images, was expressed relative to this patient-specific MER-based STN. Using regression analyses, the relation between contact location and motor improvement was studied. The regression model that predicts motor improvement based on levodopa effect alone was significantly improved by adding the one-year active contact coordinates (R² change = 0.176, p = 0.014). In the combined prediction model (adjusted R² = 0.389, p < 0.001), the largest contribution was made by the mediolateral location of the active contact (standardized beta = 0.490, p = 0.002). With the MER-based STN as a reference, we were able to find a significant relation between active contact location and motor improvement. MER-based STN modeling can be used to complement imaging-based STN models in the application of DBS.

Single-Cell Recordings to Target the Anterior Nucleus of the Thalamus in Deep Brain Stimulation for Patients with Refractory Epilepsy.

Deep brain stimulation (DBS) of the anterior nucleus of the thalamus (ANT) is a promising treatment for patients with refractory epilepsy. However, therapy response varies and precise positioning of the DBS lead is potentially essential for maximizing therapeutic efficacy. We investigate if single-cell recordings acquired by microelectrode recordings can aid targeting of the ANT during surgery and hypothesize that the neuronal firing properties of the target region relate to clinical outcome. We prospectively included 10 refractory epilepsy patients and performed microelectrode recordings under general anesthesia to identify the change in neuronal signals when approaching and transecting the ANT. The neuronal firing properties of the target region, anatomical locations of microelectrode recordings and active contact positions of the DBS lead along the recorded trajectory were compared between responders and nonresponders to DBS. We obtained 19 sets of recordings from 10 patients (five responders and five nonresponders). Amongst the 403 neurons detected, 365 (90.6%) were classified as bursty. Entry into the ANT was characterized by an increase in firing rate while exit of the ANT was characterized by a decrease in firing rate. Comparing the trajectories of responders to nonresponders, we found differences neither in the neuronal firing properties themselves nor in their locations relative to the position of the active contact. Single-cell firing rate acquired by microelectrode recordings under general anesthesia can thus aid targeting of the ANT during surgery, but is not related to clinical outcome in DBS for patients with refractory epilepsy.

Avoiding Internal Capsule Stimulation With a New Eight-Channel Steering Deep Brain Stimulation Lead.

OBJECTIVE: Novel deep brain stimulation (DBS) lead designs are currently entering the market, which are hypothesized to provide a way to steer the stimulation field away from neural populations responsible for side effects and towards populations responsible for beneficial effects. The objective of this study is to assess the performances of a new eight channel steering-DBS lead and compare this with a conventional cylindrical contact (CC) lead. APPROACH: The two leads were evaluated in a finite element electric field model combined with multicompartment neuron and axon models, representing the internal capsule (IC) fibers and subthalamic nucleus (STN) cells. We defined the optimal stimulation setting as the configuration that activated the highest percentage of STN cells, without activating any IC fibers. With this criterion, we compared monopolar stimulation using a single contact of the steering-DBS lead and CC lead, on three locations and four orientations of the lead. In addition, we performed a current steering test case by dividing the current over two contacts with the steering-DBS lead in its worst-case orientation. MAIN RESULTS: In most cases, the steering-DBS lead is able to stimulate a significantly higher percentage of STN cells compared to the CC lead using single contact stimulation or using a two contact current steering protocol when there is approximately a 1 mm displacement of the CC lead. The results also show that correct placement and orientation of the lead in the target remains an important aspect in achieving the optimal stimulation outcome. SIGNIFICANCE: Currently, clinical trials are set up in Europe with a similar design as the steering-DBS lead. Our results illustrate the importance of the orientation of the new steering-DBS lead in avoiding side effects induced by stimulation of IC fibers. Therefore, in clinical trials sufficient attention should be paid to implanting the steering DBS-lead in the most effective orientation.

Intermittent cortical involvement in the preservation of tremor in essential tremor.

Cortical involvement in essential tremor, an involuntary action tremor supposedly of subcortical origin, is uncertain. Conflicting results of corticomuscular coherence studies in essential tremor suggest an intermittent corticomuscular coupling. On the basis of the literature, we hypothesized that corticomuscular coupling is influenced by bilateral motor synchronization and "cognitive states" such as awareness of tremor. In the present study, we investigated 1) the existence of intermittent corticomuscular coherence (CMC) in essential tremor and 2) factors that influence CMC strength. In 18 essential tremor patients and 18 healthy controls, who mimicked tremor, we simultaneously recorded 64-channel EEG and 6-channel bipolar surface EMG from right and left wrist extensors and flexors. Right-sided (mimicked) hand tremor was recorded with and without a cognitive arithmetic task and with left-sided (mimicked) hand tremor. CMC values per task were compared within and between groups. Changes in CMC strength during tasks were calculated. Our main findings are 1) significant CMC around the (mimicked) tremor frequency across all tasks in both groups; 2) significant differences in CMC between unilateral tasks, with the highest values during the cognitive task only in the essential tremor group; and 3) significant fluctuations of CMC strength over time, independent of the tremor intensity, only in the essential tremor group. Our results suggest a limited role, and certainly not a continuous steering role, of sensorimotor cortical neurons in the generation of tremor. In clinical practice, these findings might help to standardize tremor registration and the interpretation of the analysis.NEW & NOTEWORTHY The part of the motor cortex involved in essential tremor is uncertain. The current electrophysiological study is the first to assess corticomuscular coherence systematically. The study shows a dynamic nature of corticomuscular coherence and a possible influence of cognitive states. The results elucidate the involvement of the motor cortex in tremor and help interpret the varying results in the literature. In clinical practice, the findings may guide in standardizing tremor registration and its interpretation.

Quantification of Hand Motor Symptoms in Parkinson's Disease: A Proof-of-Principle Study Using Inertial and Force Sensors.

This proof-of-principle study describes the methodology and explores and demonstrates the applicability of a system, existing of miniature inertial sensors on the hand and a separate force sensor, to objectively quantify hand motor symptoms in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) in a clinical setting (off- and on-medication condition). Four PD patients were measured in off- and on- dopaminergic medication condition. Finger tapping, rapid hand opening/closing, hand pro/supination, tremor during rest, mental task and kinetic task, and wrist rigidity movements were measured with the system (called the PowerGlove). To demonstrate applicability, various outcome parameters of measured hand motor symptoms of the patients in off- vs. on-medication condition are presented. The methodology described and results presented show applicability of the PowerGlove in a clinical research setting, to objectively quantify hand bradykinesia, tremor and rigidity in PD patients, using a single system. The PowerGlove measured a difference in off- vs. on-medication condition in all tasks in the presented patients with most of its outcome parameters. Further study into the validity and reliability of the outcome parameters is required in a larger cohort of patients, to arrive at an optimal set of parameters that can assist in clinical evaluation and decision-making.

Comparative study of microelectrode recording-based STN location and MRI-based STN location in low to ultra-high field (7.0 T) T2-weighted MRI images.

OBJECTIVE: The correspondence between the anatomical STN and the STN observed in T2-weighted MRI images used for deep brain stimulation (DBS) targeting remains unclear. Using a new method, we compared the STN borders seen on MRI images with those estimated by intraoperative microelectrode recordings (MER). APPROACH: We developed a method to automatically generate a detailed estimation of STN shape and the location of its borders, based on multiple-channel MER measurements. In 33 STNs of 19 Parkinson patients, we quantitatively compared the dorsal and lateral borders of this MER-based STN model with the STN borders visualized by 1.5 T (n = 14), 3.0 T (n = 10) and 7.0 T (n = 9) T2-weighted MRI. MAIN RESULTS: The dorsal border was identified more dorsally on coronal T2 MRI than by the MER-based STN model, with a significant difference in the 3.0 T (range 0.97-1.19 mm) and 7.0 T (range 1.23-1.25 mm) groups. The lateral border was significantly more medial on 1.5 T (mean: 1.97 mm) and 3.0 T (mean: 2.49 mm) MRI than in the MER-based STN; a difference that was not found in the 7.0 T group. SIGNIFICANCE: The STN extends further in the dorsal direction on coronal T2 MRI images than is measured by MER. Increasing MRI field strength to 3.0 T or 7.0 T yields similar discrepancies between MER and MRI at the dorsal STN border. In contrast, increasing MRI field strength to 7.0 T may be useful for identification of the lateral STN border and thereby improve DBS targeting.

Targeted brain activation using an MR-compatible wrist torque measurement device and isometric motor tasks during functional magnetic resonance imaging.

Dedicated pairs of isometric wrist flexion tasks, with and without visual feedback of the exerted torque, were designed to target activation of the CBL and BG in healthy subjects during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Selective activation of the cerebellum (CBL) and basal ganglia (BG), often implicated in movement disorders such as tremor and dystonia, may help identify pathological changes and expedite diagnosis. A prototyped MR-compatible wrist torque measurement device, free of magnetic and conductive materials, allowed safe execution of tasks during fMRI without causing artifacts. A significant increase of activity in CBL and BG was found in healthy volunteers during a constant torque task with visual feedback compared to a constant torque task without visual feedback. This study shows that specific pairs of motor tasks using MR-compatible equipment at the wrist allow for targeted activation of CBL and BG, paving a new way for research into the pathophysiology of movement disorders.

Can We Rely on Susceptibility-Weighted Imaging for Subthalamic Nucleus Identification in Deep Brain Stimulation Surgery?

BACKGROUND: Susceptibility-weighted imaging (SWI) offers significantly improved visibility of the subthalamic nucleus (STN) compared with traditional T2-weighted imaging. However, it is unknown whether the representation of the nucleus on SWI corresponds to the neurophysiological location of the STN. OBJECTIVE: To determine the correlation between the intraoperative electrophysiological activity of the STN and the representation of the nucleus on different magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) sequences used for deep brain stimulation target planning. METHODS: At stereotactic target depth, microelectrode recordings (MERs) of typical STN neuronal activity were mapped on 3 different preoperative MRI sequences: 1.5-T SWI, 1.5-T T2-weighted, and 3-T T2-weighted MRI. For each MRI sequence, it was determined whether the MER signal was situated inside or outside the contour of the STN. RESULTS: A total of 196 MER tracks in 34 patients were evaluated. In 165 tracks (84%), typical electrophysiological STN activity was measured. MER activity was situated more consistently inside hypointense STN contour representation on 1.5- and 3-T T2-weighted images compared with SWI (99% and 100% vs 79%, respectively). The 21% incongruence of electrophysiological STN activity outside the STN contour on SWI was seen almost exclusively in the anterior and lateral microelectrode channels. CONCLUSION: STN representation on SWI does not correspond to electrophysiological STN borders. SWI does not correctly display the lateral part of the STN. When aiming to target the superolateral sensorimotor part of the STN during deep brain stimulation surgery, SWI does not offer an advantage but a disadvantage compared with conventional T2. Future research is needed to determine whether these findings may also apply for high-field SWI.

Advanced target identification in STN-DBS with beta power of combined local field potentials and spiking activity.

BACKGROUND: In deep brain stimulation of the subthalamic nucleus (STN-DBS) for Parkinson's Disease (PD), often microelectrode recordings (MER) are used for STN identification. However, for advanced target identification of the sensorimotor STN, it may be relevant to use local field potential (LFP) recordings. Then, it is important to assure that the measured oscillations are coming from the close proximity of the electrode. NEW METHOD: Through multiple simultaneous recordings of LFP and neuronal spiking, we investigated the temporal relationship between local neuronal spiking and more global LFP. We analyzed the local oscillations in the LFP by calculating power only over specific frequencies that show a significant coherence between LFP and neuronal spiking. Using this 'coherence method', we investigated how well measurements in the sensorimotor STN could be discriminated from measurements elsewhere in the STN. RESULTS/COMPARISON WITH EXISTING METHODS: The 'sensorimotor power index' (SMPI) of beta frequencies, representing the ability to discriminate sensorimotor STN measurements based on the beta power, was significantly larger using the 'coherence method' for LFP spectral analysis compared to other methods where either the complete LFP beta spectrum or only the prominent peaks in the LFP beta spectrum were used to calculate beta power. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that due to volume conduction of beta frequency oscillations, proper localization of the sensorimotor STN with only LFP recordings is difficult. However, combining recordings of LFP and neuronal spiking and calculating beta power over the coherent parts of the LFP spectrum can be beneficial in discriminating the sensorimotor STN.

A novel lead design enables selective deep brain stimulation of neural populations in the subthalamic region.

OBJECTIVE: The clinical effects of deep brain stimulation (DBS) of the subthalamic nucleus (STN-DBS) as a treatment for Parkinson's disease are sensitive to the location of the DBS lead within the STN. New high density (HD) lead designs have been created which are hypothesized to provide additional degrees of freedom in shaping the stimulating electric field. The objective of this study is to compare the performances of a new HD lead with a conventional cylindrical contact (CC) lead. APPROACH: A computational model, consisting of a finite element electric field model combined with multi-compartment neuron and axon models representing different neural populations in the subthalamic region, was used to evaluate the two leads. We compared ring-mode and steering-mode stimulation with the HD lead to single contact stimulation with the CC lead. These stimulation modes were tested for the lead: (1) positioned in the centroid of the STN, (2) shifted 1 mm towards the internal capsule (IC), and (3) shifted 2 mm towards the IC. Under these conditions, we quantified the number of STN neurons that were activated without activating IC fibers, which are known to cause side-effects. MAIN RESULTS: The modeling results show that the HD lead is able to mimic the stimulation effect of the CC lead. Additionally, in steering-mode stimulation there was a significant increase of activated STN neurons compared to the CC mode. SIGNIFICANCE: From the model simulations we conclude that the HD lead in steering-mode with optimized stimulation parameter selection can stimulate more STN cells. Next, the clinical impact of the increased number of activated STN cells should be tested and balanced across the increased complexity of identifying the optimized stimulation parameter settings for the HD lead.

Qualitative and quantitative aspects of information processing in first psychosis: latent class analyses in patients, at-risk subjects, and controls.

We aimed to determine profiles of information processing deficits in the pathway to first psychosis. Sixty-one subjects at ultrahigh risk (UHR) for psychosis were assessed, of whom 18 converted to a first episode of psychosis (FEP) within the follow-up period. Additionally, 47 FEP and 30 control subjects were included. Using 10 neurophysiological parameters associated with information processing, latent class analyses yielded three classes at baseline. Class membership was related to group status. Within the UHR sample, two classes were found. Transition to psychosis was nominally associated with class membership. Neurophysiological profiles were unstable over time, but associations between specific neurophysiological components at baseline and follow-up were found. We conclude that certain constellations of neurophysiological variables aid in the differentiation between controls and patients in the prodrome and after first psychosis.

Sensory gating in subjects at ultra high risk for developing a psychosis before and after a first psychotic episode.

OBJECTIVES: To explore sensory gating deficits in subjects at Ultra High Risk (UHR) for psychosis before and after transition to a first psychotic episode. METHODS: Sensory gating was assessed with the paired click paradigm in 61 UHR subjects, of whom 18 (30%) made a transition to psychosis (UHR + T) over a 3-year follow-up period and 28 matched healthy controls. Subjects were assessed at inclusion and again after approximately 18 months. P50, N100 (N1) and P200 (P2) sensory gating was established using the amplitude on the first (S1) and second (S2) click, the ratio- (S2/S1) and the difference score (S1-S2). Psychopathology was also assessed. RESULTS: At baseline, UHR + T subjects presented smaller N1 difference scores compared to UHR + NT subjects and controls. The N1 difference score contributed modestly to the prediction of a first psychotic episode. Repeated measure analyses revealed smaller N1 and P2 S1 amplitudes, smaller P2 difference scores and larger P2 ratio's at follow-up compared to baseline in UHR + T subjects. CONCLUSION: The N1 difference score may be helpful in predicting a first psychosis. N1 and P2 sensory gating measures also showed alterations between the prodromal phase and the first psychosis, suggesting that these changes may relate to the onset of a frank psychotic episode.

Directional steering: A novel approach to deep brain stimulation.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate whether directional steering through a novel 32-contact electrode is safe and can modulate the thresholds for beneficial and side effects of stimulation. METHODS: The study is a single-center, performance and safety study. Double-blind intraoperative evaluations of the thresholds for therapeutic benefit and for side effects were performed in 8 patients with Parkinson disease while stimulating in randomized order in spherical mode and in 4 different steering modes with the 32-contact electrode, and in monopolar mode with a commercial electrode. In addition, simultaneous recordings of local field potentials through all 32 contacts were performed. RESULTS: There were no adverse events related to the experimental device. For 13 of 15 side effects (87%), the threshold could be increased by ≥ 1 mA while steering in at least one direction in comparison to conventional spherical stimulation, thereby increasing the therapeutic window by up to 1.5 mA. Recording local field potentials through all 32 electrode contacts yielded spatiotemporal information on pathologic neuronal activity. CONCLUSIONS: Controlled steering of current through the brain may improve the effectiveness of deep brain stimulation (DBS), allow for novel applications, and provide a tool to better explore pathophysiologic activity in the brain. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class IV evidence that for patients with Parkinson disease, steering DBS current is well tolerated, increases the threshold for side effects, and may improve the therapeutic window of subthalamic nucleus DBS as compared with current standard spherical stimulation.

Can quantitative EEG measures predict clinical outcome in subjects at Clinical High Risk for psychosis? A prospective multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: Prediction studies in subjects at Clinical High Risk (CHR) for psychosis are hampered by a high proportion of uncertain outcomes. We therefore investigated whether quantitative EEG (QEEG) parameters can contribute to an improved identification of CHR subjects with a later conversion to psychosis. METHODS: This investigation was a project within the European Prediction of Psychosis Study (EPOS), a prospective multicenter, naturalistic field study with an 18-month follow-up period. QEEG spectral power and alpha peak frequencies (APF) were determined in 113 CHR subjects. The primary outcome measure was conversion to psychosis. RESULTS: Cox regression yielded a model including frontal theta (HR=1.82; [95% CI 1.00-3.32]) and delta (HR=2.60; [95% CI 1.30-5.20]) power, and occipital-parietal APF (HR=.52; [95% CI .35-.80]) as predictors of conversion to psychosis. The resulting equation enabled the development of a prognostic index with three risk classes (hazard rate 0.057 to 0.81). CONCLUSIONS: Power in theta and delta ranges and APF contribute to the short-term prediction of psychosis and enable a further stratification of risk in CHR samples. Combined with (other) clinical ratings, EEG parameters may therefore be a useful tool for individualized risk estimation and, consequently, targeted prevention.

Psychosis prediction: stratification of risk estimation with information-processing and premorbid functioning variables.

BACKGROUND: The period preceding the first psychotic episode is regarded as a promising period for intervention. We aimed to develop an optimized prediction model of a first psychosis, considering different sources of information. The outcome of this model may be used for individualized risk estimation. METHODS: Sixty-one subjects clinically at high risk (CHR), participating in the Dutch Prediction of Psychosis Study, were assessed at baseline with instruments yielding data on neuropsychology, symptomatology, environmental factors, premorbid adjustment, and neurophysiology. The follow-up period was 36 months. RESULTS: At 36 months, 18 participants (29.5%) had made a transition to psychosis. Premorbid adjustment (P = .001, hazard ratio [HR] = 2.13, 95% CI = 1.39/3.28) and parietal P300 amplitude (P = .004, HR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.08/1.45) remained as predictors in the Cox proportional hazard model. The resulting prognostic score (PS) showed a sensitivity of 88.9% and a specificity of 82.5%. The area under the curve of the PS was 0.91 (95% CI = 0.83-0.98, cross-validation: 0.86), indicating an outstanding ability of the model to discriminate between transition and nontransition. The PS was further stratified into 3 risk classes establishing a prognostic index. In the class with the worst social-personal adjustment and lowest P300 amplitudes, 74% of the subjects made a transition to psychosis. Furthermore, transition emerged on average more than 17 months earlier than in the lowest risk class. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that predicting a first psychotic episode in CHR subjects could be improved with a model including premorbid adjustment and information-processing variables in a multistep algorithm combining risk detection and stratification.