Emergence of a peak in early infant mortality due to HIV/AIDS in South Africa.

OBJECTIVES: South Africa has among the highest levels of HIV prevalence in the world. Our objectives are to describe the distribution of South African infant and child mortality by age at fine resolution, to identify any trends over recent time and to examine these trends for HIV-associated and non HIV-associated causes of mortality. METHODS: A retrospective review of vital registration data was conducted. All registered postneonatal deaths under 1 year of age in South Africa for the period 1997-2002 were analysed by age in months using a generalized linear model with a log link and Poisson family. RESULTS: Postneonatal mortality increased each year over the period 1997-2002. A peak in HIV-related deaths was observed, centred at 2-3 months of age, rising monotonically over time. CONCLUSION: We interpret the peak in mortality at 2-3 months as an indicator for paediatric AIDS in a South African population with high HIV prevalence and where other causes of death are not sufficiently high to mask HIV effects. Intrauterine and intrapartum infection may contribute to this peak. It is potentially a useful surveillance tool, not requiring an exact cause of death. The findings also illustrate the need for early treatment of mother and child in settings with very high HIV prevalence.

Making COD statistics useful for public health at local level in the city of Cape Town: utilidad para la salud pública a nivel local en Ciudad del Cabo.

OBJECTIVE: To review the quality of the coding of the cause of death (COD) statistics and assess the mortality information needs of the City of Cape Town. METHODS: Using an action research approach, a study was set up to investigate the quality of COD information, the accuracy of COD coding and consistency of coding practices in the larger health subdistricts. Mortality information needs and the best way of presenting the statistics to assist health managers were explored. FINDINGS: Useful information was contained in 75% of death certificates, but nearly 60% had only a single cause certified; 55% of forms were coded accurately. Disagreement was mainly because routine coders coded the immediate instead of the underlying COD. An abridged classification of COD, based on causes of public health importance, prevalent causes and selected combinations of diseases was implemented with training on underlying cause. Analysis of the 2001 data identified the leading causes of death and premature mortality and illustrated striking differences in the disease burden and profile between health subdistricts. CONCLUSION: Action research is particularly useful for improving information systems and revealed the need to standardize the coding practice to identify underlying cause. The specificity of the full ICD classification is beyond the level of detail on the death certificates currently available. An abridged classification for coding provides a practical tool appropriate for local level public health surveillance. Attention to the presentation of COD statistics is important to enable the data to inform decision-makers.

Initial burden of disease estimates for South Africa, 2000.

BACKGROUND: This paper describes the first national burden of disease study for South Africa. The main focus is the burden due to premature mortality, i.e. years of life lost (YLLs). In addition, estimates of the burden contributed by morbidity, i.e. the years lived with disability (YLDs), are obtained to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs); and the impact of AIDS on premature mortality in the year 2010 is assessed. METHOD: Owing to the rapid mortality transition and the lack of timely data, a modelling approach has been adopted. The total mortality for the year 2000 is estimated using a demographic and AIDS model. The non-AIDS cause-of-death profile is estimated using three sources of data: Statistics South Africa, the National Department of Home Affairs, and the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System. A ratio method is used to estimate the YLDs from the YLL estimates. RESULTS: The top single cause of mortality burden was HIV/AIDS followed by homicide, tuberculosis, road traffic accidents and diarrhoea. HIV/AIDS accounted for 38% of total YLLs, which is proportionately higher for females (47%) than for males (33%). Pre-transitional diseases, usually associated with poverty and underdevelopment, accounted for 25%, non-communicable diseases 21% and injuries 16% of YLLs. The DALY estimates highlight the fact that mortality alone underestimates the burden of disease, especially with regard to unintentional injuries, respiratory disease, and nervous system, mental and sense organ disorders. The impact of HIV/AIDS is expected to more than double the burden of premature mortality by the year 2010. CONCLUSION: This study has drawn together data from a range of sources to develop coherent estimates of premature mortality by cause. South Africa is experiencing a quadruple burden of disease comprising the pre-transitional diseases, the emerging chronic diseases, injuries, and HIV/AIDS. Unless interventions that reduce morbidity and delay morbidity become widely available, the burden due to HIV/AIDS can be expected to grow very rapidly in the next few years. An improved base of information is needed to assess the morbidity impact more accurately.

South African cause-of-death profile in transition--1996 and future trends.

This paper describes the South African cause-of-death profile in 1996, the latest year for which routine data are available. Underreporting of deaths, misclassification of causes and HIV/AIDS make face value interpretation of reported cause-of-death data difficult. Changes in subsequent years due to HIV/AIDS are considered using model projections. South Africa is undergoing a protracted bipolar transition with the coexistence of both diseases of poverty and emerging chronic diseases. In 1996 these accounted for similar proportions of the premature mortality, about 27% for males and 35% for females, with the added burden of injuries accounting for a further 35% in males and 16% in females. Tuberculosis (TB), lower respiratory tract infections, diarrhoea, HIV/AIDS, perinatal diseases, malnutrition and septicaemia contributed to the pretransitional conditions, while stroke, diabetes, ischaemic heart disease, hypertensive heart disease, asthma, chronic obstructive lung disease, cancer of the lung in men and cancer of the cervix in women contributed to the premature mortality due to non-communicable diseases. Homicide is the major cause of injury death for men while unintentional injuries are the major cause of injury death for women. Projections suggest that this triple burden (diseases of poverty, emerging chronic diseases and injuries) has now become a quadruple burden resulting from the HIV/AIDS epidemic and that without interventions to reduce mortality, by the year 2010, AIDS deaths will account for double all other causes of death combined. While efforts to improve the cause-of-death statistics are needed, the current data clearly suggest that comprehensive public health strategies to improve the health of the nation must be strengthened, and reducing the number of deaths that can be expected to result from AIDS requires urgent attention.