Positive effects of exotic species dampened by neighborhood heterogeneity.

It is well known that species interactions between exotic and native species are important for determining the success of biological invasions and how influential exotic species become in invaded communities. The strength and type of interactions between species can substantially vary, however, from negative and detrimental to minimal or even positive. Increasing evidence from the literature shows that exotic species have positive interactions with native species more often than originally thought. Gaps in our theory for how population growth is limited when interactions are positive, however, restrict our understanding of the mechanisms by which exotic "facilitators" contribute to diversity maintenance in invaded systems. Here, we quantified interactions between seven native and four exotic (established nonnative) common annual plant species in the highly diverse, York Gum woodlands of Western Australia. We used a Bayesian demographic modeling approach that allowed for interaction coefficients to be positive or negative, and explored key sources of variation in species responses to native and exotic neighbors at per capita (individual) and neighborhood levels. We observed positive per capita effects from exotic neighbors on exotic focal species as well as on several native focal species. However, all focal species were, on average, inhibited by their interaction neighborhood, when the variance in identity and abundance of observed neighbors was considered. At the neighborhood scale, exotic species were found to suppress all focal species, particularly those with high intrinsic fecundity. Our study demonstrates that within-neighborhood heterogeneity can regulate per capita positive effects of invaders, limiting runaway population growth of both natives and exotic invaders.

Accounting for demographic uncertainty increases predictions for species coexistence: A case study with annual plants.

Natural systems contain more complexity than is accounted for in models of modern coexistence theory. Coexistence modelling often disregards variation arising from stochasticity in biological processes, heterogeneity among individuals and plasticity in trait values. However, these unaccounted-for sources of uncertainty are likely to be ecologically important and have the potential to impact estimates of coexistence. We applied a Bayesian modelling framework to data from an annual plant community in Western Australia to propagate uncertainty in coexistence outcomes using the invasion criterion and ratio of niche to fitness differences. We found accounting for this uncertainty altered predictions of coexistence versus competitive exclusion for 3 out of 14 species pairs and yielded a probability of priority effects for an additional species pair. The propagation of uncertainty arising from sources of biological complexity improves our ability to predict coexistence more accurately in natural systems.

Application of modern coexistence theory to rare plant restoration provides early indication of restoration trajectories.

Restoration ecology commonly seeks to re-establish species of interest in degraded habitats. Despite a rich understanding of how succession influences re-establishment, there are several outstanding questions that remain unaddressed: are short-term abundances sufficient to determine long-term re-establishment success, and what factors contribute to unpredictable restorations outcomes? In other words, when restoration fails, is it because the restored habitat is substandard, because of strong competition with invasive species, or alternatively due to changing environmental conditions that would equally impact established populations? Here, we re-purpose tools developed from modern coexistence theory to address these questions, and apply them to an effort to restore the endangered Contra Costa goldfields (Lasthenia conjugens) in constructed ("restored") California vernal pools. Using 16 years of data, we construct a population model of L. conjugens, a species of conservation concern due primarily to habitat loss and invasion of exotic grasses. We show that initial, short-term appearances of restoration success from population abundances is misleading, as year-to-year fluctuations cause long-term population growth rates to fall below zero. The failure of constructed pools is driven by lower maximum growth rates compared with reference ("natural") pools, coupled with a stronger negative sensitivity to annual fluctuations in abiotic conditions that yield decreased maximum growth rates. Nonetheless, our modeling shows that fluctuations in competition (mainly with exotic grasses) benefit L. conjugens through periods of competitive release, especially in constructed pools of intermediate pool depth. We therefore show how reductions in invasives and seed addition in pools of particular depths could change the outcome of restoration for L. conjugens. By applying a largely theoretical framework to the urgent goal of ecological restoration, our study provides a blueprint for predicting restoration success, and identifies future actions to reverse species loss.

Disentangling key species interactions in diverse and heterogeneous communities: A Bayesian sparse modelling approach.

Modelling species interactions in diverse communities traditionally requires a prohibitively large number of species-interaction coefficients, especially when considering environmental dependence of parameters. We implemented Bayesian variable selection via sparsity-inducing priors on non-linear species abundance models to determine which species interactions should be retained and which can be represented as an average heterospecific interaction term, reducing the number of model parameters. We evaluated model performance using simulated communities, computing out-of-sample predictive accuracy and parameter recovery across different input sample sizes. We applied our method to a diverse empirical community, allowing us to disentangle the direct role of environmental gradients on species' intrinsic growth rates from indirect effects via competitive interactions. We also identified a few neighbouring species from the diverse community that had non-generic interactions with our focal species. This sparse modelling approach facilitates exploration of species interactions in diverse communities while maintaining a manageable number of parameters.

Requirements for the spatial storage effect are weakly evident for common species in natural annual plant assemblages.

Coexistence in spatially varying environments is theorized to be promoted by a variety of mechanisms including the spatial storage effect. The spatial storage effect promotes coexistence when (1) species have unique vital rate responses to their spatial environment and, when abundant, (2) experience stronger competition in the environmental patches where they perform better. In a naturally occurring southwest Western Australian annual plant system, we conducted a neighbor removal experiment involving eleven focal species growing in high-abundance populations. Specifically, we measured species' fecundity across a variety of environmental gradients in both the presence and absence of neighbors. For the environmental variables that we measured, there was only limited evidence for species-specific responses to the environment, with a composite variable describing overstory cover and leaf litter cover being the best predictor of fecundity for a subset of focal species. In addition, although we found strong evidence for intraspecific competition, positive environment-competition covariance was only detected for one species. Thus, positive environment-competition covariance may not be as common as expected in populations of species growing at high abundance, at least when tested in natural assemblages. Our findings highlight the inherent limitations of using natural assemblages to study spatial coexistence mechanisms, and we urge empirical ecologists to take these limitations into account when designing future experiments.

Social factors regulate female-female aggression and affiliation in prairie voles.

Although patterns of aggression and affiliation may play a major role in social organization, the mechanisms underlying these behaviors are not well understood. The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of social and hormonal experience on female-female aggression and affiliation in prairie voles, Microtus ochrogaster. Prairie voles exhibit the traits of social monogamy and tend to live in communal families structured around a male-female pair. It is rare for two unrelated females within a family to successfully reproduce. In this study, the social and/or hormonal experiences of female prairie voles were varied and female-female aggression and affiliation were measured during dyadic encounters with unfamiliar, nonaggressive females. An increase in aggression and decline in affiliative behaviors toward a stimulus female was observed during pregnancy and following male-cohabitation, with or without mating. Pairing with another female did not result in changes in either aggressive or affiliative behaviors toward the stimulus female. Female-female aggression increased and affiliative behaviors declined, with a maximal effect following approximately 8-12 days of male cohabitation. Similar patterns of change were seen in both ovariectomized and gonadally intact females, and treatment with estradiol and subsequent sexual experience did not significantly alter the tendency of females to show aggression or affiliative contact. Social experiences associated with prolonged cohabitation with a male facilitate the induction of female-female aggression; however, ovarian hormones, pregnancy or mating are not essential to induce aggression.