Influence of cardiometabolic medications on abdominal aortic aneurysm growth in the UK Aneurysm Growth Study: metformin and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors associated with slower aneurysm growth.

BACKGROUND: There is a clinical need for treatments that can slow or prevent the growth of an abdominal aortic aneurysm, not only to reduce the need for surgery, but to provide a means to treat those who cannot undergo surgery. METHODS: Analysis of the UK Aneurysm Growth Study (UKAGS) prospective cohort was conducted to test for an association between cardiometabolic medications and the growth of an abdominal aortic aneurysm above 30 mm in diameter, using linear mixed-effect models. RESULTS: A total of 3670 male participants with data available on abdominal aortic aneurysm growth, smoking status, co-morbidities, and medication history were included. The mean age at recruitment was 69.5 years, the median number of surveillance scans was 6, and the mean(s.e.) unadjusted abdominal aortic aneurysm growth rate was 1.75(0.03) mm/year. In a multivariate linear mixed-effect model, smoking (mean(s.e.) +0.305(0.07) mm/year, P = 0.00003) and antiplatelet use (mean(s.e.) +0.235(0.06) mm/year, P = 0.00018) were found to be associated with more rapid abdominal aortic aneurysm growth, whilst metformin was strongly associated with slower abdominal aortic aneurysm growth (mean(s.e.) -0.38(0.1) mm/year, P = 0.00019), as were angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (mean(s.e.) -0.243(0.07) mm/year, P = 0.0004), angiotensin II receptor antagonists (mean(s.e.) -0.253(0.08) mm/year, P = 0.00255), and thiazides/related diuretics (mean(s.e.) -0.307(0.09) mm/year, P = 0.00078). CONCLUSION: The strong association of metformin with slower abdominal aortic aneurysm growth highlights the importance of the ongoing clinical trials assessing the effectiveness of metformin with regard to the prevention of abdominal aortic aneurysm growth and/or rupture. The association of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin II receptor antagonists, and diuretics with slower abdominal aortic aneurysm growth points to the possibility that optimization of cardiovascular risk management as part of abdominal aortic aneurysm surveillance may have the secondary benefit of also reducing abdominal aortic aneurysm growth rates.

Are portable ankle brachial pressure index measurement devices suitable for hypertension screening?

OBJECTIVE: In a large-scale population cardiovascular screening programme, peripheral artery disease (PAD) and hypertension would ideally be rapidly assessed using a single device. The ankle-brachial pressure index (ABPI) is calculated by comparing the ankle and brachial blood pressure (BP). However, it is currently unclear whether brachial BP measurements provided by automated PAD screening systems are sufficiently accurate for simultaneous hypertension screening. METHODS: Two portable PAD screening devices, the MESI ABPI MD and Huntleigh's Dopplex ABIlity, were evaluated following the European Society of Hypertension International Protocol (ESH-IP) Revision 2010 using a mercury-free sphygmomanometer as a reference device. RESULTS: On average, the MESI slightly underestimated brachial systolic blood pressure (BP) with a bias and standard deviation (SD) of -3.5 (SD: 3.3) mmHg and diastolic BP with a bias of -1.5 (SD: 2.3) mmHg. For systolic BP estimates, the Dopplex was more accurate than the MESI with a lower bias of -0.5 (SD: 4.2) mmHg but less precise. The MESI successfully fulfilled all the requirements of the ESH-IP for hypertension screening. The Dopplex device failed the ESH-IP due to the absence of DBP measurements. CONCLUSIONS: The MESI device appears to be suitable for simultaneous PAD and hypertension screening as part of a preventative care programme. Huntleigh's Dopplex ABIlity failed to pass the ESH-IP validation test. Further clinical trials are underway to assess the use of the MESI for simultaneous screening for hypertension and PAD in a population screening setting.

Genetic Risk Score for Intracranial Aneurysms: Prediction of Subarachnoid Hemorrhage and Role in Clinical Heterogeneity.

BACKGROUND: Recently, common genetic risk factors for intracranial aneurysm (IA) and aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (ASAH) were found to explain a large amount of disease heritability and therefore have potential to be used for genetic risk prediction. We constructed a genetic risk score to (1) predict ASAH incidence and IA presence (combined set of unruptured IA and ASAH) and (2) assess its association with patient characteristics. METHODS: A genetic risk score incorporating genetic association data for IA and 17 traits related to IA (so-called metaGRS) was created using 1161 IA cases and 407 392 controls from the UK Biobank population study. The metaGRS was validated in combination with risk factors blood pressure, sex, and smoking in 828 IA cases and 68 568 controls from the Nordic HUNT population study. Furthermore, we assessed association between the metaGRS and patient characteristics in a cohort of 5560 IA patients. RESULTS: Per SD increase of metaGRS, the hazard ratio for ASAH incidence was 1.34 (95% CI, 1.20-1.51) and the odds ratio for IA presence 1.09 (95% CI, 1.01-1.18). Upon including the metaGRS on top of clinical risk factors, the concordance index to predict ASAH hazard increased from 0.63 (95% CI, 0.59-0.67) to 0.65 (95% CI, 0.62-0.69), while prediction of IA presence did not improve. The metaGRS was statistically significantly associated with age at ASAH (ß=-4.82×10-3 per year [95% CI, -6.49×10-3 to -3.14×10-3]; P=1.82×10-8), and location of IA at the internal carotid artery (odds ratio=0.92 [95% CI, 0.86-0.98]; P=0.0041). CONCLUSIONS: The metaGRS was predictive of ASAH incidence, although with limited added value over clinical risk factors. The metaGRS was not predictive of IA presence. Therefore, we do not recommend using this metaGRS in daily clinical care. Genetic risk does partly explain the clinical heterogeneity of IA warranting prioritization of clinical heterogeneity in future genetic prediction studies of IA and ASAH.

Long-Term Effects of Acute Kidney Injury Following Endovascular Femoropopliteal Intervention: Insights From a Multicenter Trial.

PURPOSE: To examine the association between acute kidney injury (AKI) severity and duration with cardiovascular mortality, following endovascular treatment of femoropopliteal disease, and whether it is AKI in itself that confers an increased risk of cardiovascular mortality. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data obtained between 2014 and 2019 from 3 vascular centers. Renal function was followed up for a minimum of 90 days. Electronic records were queried to establish a cause of death, where applicable. Patients were excluded if unable to provide written informed consent or if presenting with acute limb ischemia. Primary outcomes were the hazard ratios for cardiovascular death (AKI patients vs no AKI; no AKI vs stage 1 AKI vs stage 3 AKI; and no AKI vs transient AKI vs established AKI). Propensity score-matched analysis was used to establish whether developing AKI, in patients with similar demographics and procedural characteristics, is associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular death. RESULTS: Overall 239 patients developed AKI, and this was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular mortality (hazard risk [HR]: 4.3, 95% confidence intervals [CIs]: 2.1-6.8, pairwise comparison p value=0.006]. This was dependent on the severity of the AKI stage (HR 5.4, 95% CI: 2.4-7.3, pairwise comparison p value=0.01) and duration (HR 4.2, 95% CI: 2.3-6.2, pairwise comparison p value=0.04). The propensity score-matched analysis showed that even when patients are matched for comorbidity and procedural characteristics, AKI confers an increased risk of mortality (p=0.04). CONCLUSIONS: Acute kidney injury is common after femoropopliteal endovascular therapy. It confers an increased risk of long-term cardiovascular mortality, which is still present when renal decline is transient, and highest for patients with established decline in renal function. CLINICAL IMPACT: This is the first study in the setting of peripheral arterial disease to show that acute kidney injury has an adverse effect on cardiovascular mortality, in the long-term, that is dependent on its severity, and present even when the AKI is transient. We have also shown that this difference in cardiovascular mortality becomes more pronounced from the medium-term, and thus closer follow-up of these patients is required.

CO2 Conversion via Reverse Water Gas Shift Reaction Using Fully Selective Mo-P Multicomponent Catalysts.

The reverse water gas shift reaction (RWGS) has attracted much attention as a potential means to widespread utilization of CO2 through the production of synthesis gas. However, for commercial implementation of RWGS at the scales needed to replace fossil feedstocks with CO2, new catalysts must be developed using earth abundant materials, and these catalysts must suppress the competing methanation reaction completely while maintaining stable performance at elevated temperatures and high conversions producing large quantities of water. Herein we identify molybdenum phosphide (MoP) as a nonprecious metal catalyst that satisfies these requirements. Supported MoP catalysts completely suppress methanation while undergoing minimal deactivation, opening up possibilities for their use in CO2 utilization.

Selecting Portable Ankle/Toe Brachial Pressure Index Systems for a Peripheral Arterial Disease Population Screening Programme: a Systematic Review, Clinical Evaluation Exercise, and Consensus Process.

OBJECTIVE: To provide an overview of systems available for peripheral arterial disease (PAD) screening, together with respective accuracies and a clinical evaluation to identify a system suitable for use in a community screening programme. METHODS: A systematic review of the diagnostic accuracy of six ankle brachial pressure index (ABPI) and toe brachial pressure index (TBPI) devices deemed to be portable, which were Conformité Européenne (CE) marked, and were automated or semi-automated was carried out compared with gold standard handheld Doppler and duplex ultrasound. The devices were MESI-ABPI-MD, Huntleigh Dopplex Ability, Huntleigh ABPI and TBPI systems, Systoe TBPI system, and BlueDop. Seven databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL)) were searched, and 11 studies were identified as eligible for review. This was followed by hands on clinical evaluation by abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) screening staff (n = 39). During this, devices were demonstrated to staff which they then tested on volunteers and gave feedback using pre-designed questionnaires on their suitability for use in a screening programme. Finally, accuracy data and staff preferences were combined during a consensus conference that was held between study and screening staff to determine the most appropriate device to use in a community screening programme. RESULTS: Generally, the evaluated systems have a moderate level of sensitivity and a high level of specificity: Dopplex ability sensitivity 20% - 70%, specificity 86% - 96%; MESI sensitivity 57% - 74%, specificity 85% - 99%; BlueDop sensitivity 95%, specificity 89%; and Systoe sensitivity 71%, specificity 77%. Clinical evaluation by screening staff identified a preference for the MESI system. The consensus conference concluded that the MESI device was a good candidate for use in a community PAD screening programme. CONCLUSION: The MESI system is a good candidate to consider for community PAD screening.

Introducing multi-component cardiovascular health screening into existing Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (AAA) screening programmes in the UK: a qualitative study of programme staff views.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease is a major contributor to poor health in the UK and the leading cause of death in England. Peripheral arterial disease and high blood pressure are conditions that identify individuals at high cardiovascular disease risk, likely to benefit from cardiovascular risk management. Both conditions remain considerably underdiagnosed and untreated. The National Health Service abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) screening programmes represent an opportunity to screen for these conditions with potentially minimal additional effort or cost. We explored AAA screening programme staff views on the proposed introduction of such additional screening within AAA screening. METHODS: Nine focus groups and seven follow-on interviews were undertaken with 38 AAA screening staff. Our study methods were oriented broadly towards a grounded theory methodology, and data were analysed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: Three themes were identified: (i) 'Perceptions of patient experience and health-related outcomes', (ii) 'Opportunities and challenges for programme staff', and (iii) 'Maintaining and improving programme standards'. Staff talked about the high uptake of AAA screening, staff experience and skills in their role, and the programme's high quality standards as both opportunities and potential challenges linked to the proposed additions to AAA screening. While positive about the potential to improve patients' health outcomes, participants had questions about the practicalities of incorporating additional procedures within their time- and resource-constrained context, and how this may reconfigure work processes, roles and relationships. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed additions to the programme require taking staff's views into account. Key areas that need to be addressed relate to ensuring follow-up support for patients, clarity around staff responsibilities, and availability of sufficient resources for the programme.

Multimodal Structural Analysis of the Human Aorta: From Valve to Bifurcation.

OBJECTIVE: The aims of the present study were to assess the relative proportion of collagen and elastin in the arterial wall and to evaluate the collagen microstructure from the aortic root to the external iliac artery. METHODS: Arterial wall tissue samples sampled during post-mortem examination from 16 sites in 14 individuals without aneurysm disease were fixed and stained for collagen and elastin. Stained sections were imaged and analysed to calculate collagen and elastin content as a percentage of overall tissue area. Scanning electron microscopy was used to quantify the collagen microstructure at six specific arterial regions. RESULTS: From the aortic root to the level of the suprarenal aorta, the percentages (area fractions) of collagen (ascending, descending, and suprarenal aorta respectively with 95% confidence interval [CI] 37.5%, 31.7 - 43.2; 38.9%, 33.1 - 44.7; 44.8%, 37.4 - 52.1) and elastin (43.0%, 37.3 - 48.8; 40.3%, 34.8 - 46.1; 32.4%, 25.2 - 39.6) in the aortic wall were similar. From the suprarenal aorta to the internal iliac arteries, the percentage of collagen increased (abdominal aorta, common and internal iliac arteries and external iliac artery respectively with 95% CI 50.6%, 42.7 - 58.7; 51.2%, 45.5 - 56.9; 49.2%, 42.0 - 56.4) reaching a double percentage for elastin (23.6%, 15.7 - 31.6; 20.8%, 15.1 - 26.5; 22.2%, 14.9 - 29.5). Mean collagen fibre diameter (MFD) and average segment length (ASL) were significantly larger in the external iliac artery (MFD 6.03, 95% CI 5.95 - 6.11; ASL 22.21, 95% CI 20.80 - 23.61) than in the ascending aorta (MFD 5.81, 5.72 - 5.89; ASL 19.47, 18.07 - 20.88) and the abdominal aorta (MFD 5.92, 5.84 - 6.00; ASL 21.10, 19.69 - 22.50). CONCLUSION: In subjects lacking aneurysmal disease, the aorta and iliac arteries are not structurally uniform along their length. There is an increase in collagen percentage and decrease in elastin percentage progressing distally along the aorta. Mean collagen fibre diameter and average segment length are larger in the external iliac artery, compared with the ascending and the abdominal aorta.

Feasibility of arterial spin labeling in evaluating high- and low-flow peripheral vascular malformations: a case series.

We present a case series highlighting a novel use of arterial spin labeling (ASL), a MRI perfusion technique, to evaluate both high- and low-flow peripheral vascular malformations (PVMs) across a range of anatomical locations. While the role of ASL in assessing intracranial vascular malformations is more established, there is limited evidence for PVMs. Our results provide preliminary evidence for the feasibility of ASL in imaging PVMs and its potential ability to distinguish between high- and low-flow PVMs. In addition, we demonstrate its ability to identify focal high blood flow, which may indicate the nidus in arteriovenous malformations. Together, these findings have important implications for patient management. We also outline the potential benefits and limitations of ASL in the imaging of PVMs, and provide justification for further validation of its diagnostic performance.

Disease consequences of higher adiposity uncoupled from its adverse metabolic effects using Mendelian randomisation.

Background: Some individuals living with obesity may be relatively metabolically healthy, whilst others suffer from multiple conditions that may be linked to adverse metabolic effects or other factors. The extent to which the adverse metabolic component of obesity contributes to disease compared to the non-metabolic components is often uncertain. We aimed to use Mendelian randomisation (MR) and specific genetic variants to separately test the causal roles of higher adiposity with and without its adverse metabolic effects on diseases. Methods: We selected 37 chronic diseases associated with obesity and genetic variants associated with different aspects of excess weight. These genetic variants included those associated with metabolically 'favourable adiposity' (FA) and 'unfavourable adiposity' (UFA) that are both associated with higher adiposity but with opposite effects on metabolic risk. We used these variants and two sample MR to test the effects on the chronic diseases. Results: MR identified two sets of diseases. First, 11 conditions where the metabolic effect of higher adiposity is the likely primary cause of the disease. Here, MR with the FA and UFA genetics showed opposing effects on risk of disease: coronary artery disease, peripheral artery disease, hypertension, stroke, type 2 diabetes, polycystic ovary syndrome, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, chronic kidney disease, renal cancer, and gout. Second, 9 conditions where the non-metabolic effects of excess weight (e.g. mechanical effect) are likely a cause. Here, MR with the FA genetics, despite leading to lower metabolic risk, and MR with the UFA genetics, both indicated higher disease risk: osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, osteoporosis, gastro-oesophageal reflux disease, gallstones, adult-onset asthma, psoriasis, deep vein thrombosis, and venous thromboembolism. Conclusions: Our results assist in understanding the consequences of higher adiposity uncoupled from its adverse metabolic effects, including the risks to individuals with high body mass index who may be relatively metabolically healthy. Funding: Diabetes UK, UK Medical Research Council, World Cancer Research Fund, National Cancer Institute.

A Community and Hospital cAre Bundle to improve the medical treatment of severe cLaudIcation and critical limb iSchaemia (CHABLIS).

Background: Patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD) often do not receive optimal best medical therapy (BMT). Through interaction with patients and healthcare-professionals (HCPs) we developed the LEaflet Gp letter Structured checklist (LEGS) complex clinical intervention to support HCPs in providing guideline-compliant PAD BMT. Methods: This was a prospective multicentre study assessing the feasibility and fidelity of delivering the LEGS intervention in primary and secondary care over six months. Intervention fidelity was scored based on the proportion of intervention components used correctly at discharge, 30 days, and six months. Results: Overall, 129 individuals were screened and 120 took part (33% female, 74% with chronic limb threatening ischaemia; 93% recruitment rate). Of those, 118 (98% retention rate) completed follow-up. Mean intervention fidelity score at discharge (primary outcome measure) was 63% [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 39-68%, SD: 5%], exceeding the success criteria set at 60% by a panel of HCPs and patients. This, however, declined to 51% at six months. Eight patients (6.7%) died (all cardiovascular deaths), four (3.3%) had a major lower limb amputation, 12 (10%) had a cardiovascular event, and 13 (11%) were admitted due to limb ischaemia at six months. Incomplete lipid therapy prescriptions and LEGS intervention documents not received by primary care CHPs were the most common reasons for not complying with the LEGS intervention. Conclusions: The LEGS intervention can be delivered in PAD care pathways across different hospitals, primary, and community healthcare settings with acceptable fidelity, to streamline and improve PAD BMT short- and medium-term.

Genetic Predisposition to Diabetes and Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm: A Two Stage Mendelian Randomisation Study.

OBJECTIVE: Observational studies demonstrate an inverse association between type II diabetes and abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) for reasons that are unclear. The aim of this study was to clarify the causal association between type II diabetes predisposition and AAA using Mendelian randomisation. METHODS: Effect estimates for single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with diabetes were obtained from the DIAbetes Meta-ANalysis of Trans-Ethnic association studies (DIAMANTE) consortium to construct a genetic instrumental variable. Corresponding effect estimates for associations of these SNPs with AAA were obtained from the International Aneurysm Consortium comprising six separate AAA genomewide association studies (4 972 cases and 99 858 controls). Mendelian randomisation estimates were calculated using inverse variance, weighted median, and MR-Egger methods, and compared against recently published observational estimates. RESULTS: A genetic risk score was constructed from 206 SNPs associated with diabetes. All three Mendelian randomisation models showed no effect of genetic liability to diabetes and risk of AAA (inverse variance: odds ratio 1.04 per unit higher log odds, 95% 0.98 - 1.11, p = .19; MR-Egger slope p = .33; weighted median p = .50). Results were similar after excluding the TCF7L2 locus (inverse variance p = .075). Findings from the Mendelian randomisation analysis differed from previous observational reports of an inverse association (pdif < .001). CONCLUSION: Lifelong genetic predisposition to diabetes does not appear to protect against AAA. These findings differ from traditional epidemiological studies showing an inverse association between diabetes and AAA, for reasons that remain unclear.

Rare coding variants in 35 genes associate with circulating lipid levels-A multi-ancestry analysis of 170,000 exomes.

Large-scale gene sequencing studies for complex traits have the potential to identify causal genes with therapeutic implications. We performed gene-based association testing of blood lipid levels with rare (minor allele frequency < 1%) predicted damaging coding variation by using sequence data from >170,000 individuals from multiple ancestries: 97,493 European, 30,025 South Asian, 16,507 African, 16,440 Hispanic/Latino, 10,420 East Asian, and 1,182 Samoan. We identified 35 genes associated with circulating lipid levels; some of these genes have not been previously associated with lipid levels when using rare coding variation from population-based samples. We prioritize 32 genes in array-based genome-wide association study (GWAS) loci based on aggregations of rare coding variants; three (EVI5, SH2B3, and PLIN1) had no prior association of rare coding variants with lipid levels. Most of our associated genes showed evidence of association among multiple ancestries. Finally, we observed an enrichment of gene-based associations for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol drug target genes and for genes closest to GWAS index single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Our results demonstrate that gene-based associations can be beneficial for drug target development and provide evidence that the gene closest to the array-based GWAS index SNP is often the functional gene for blood lipid levels.

Systematic review of genome-wide association studies of abdominal aortic aneurysm.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is an important cause of death worldwide and has an estimated heritability between 70 and 77%. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are an established way to discover genetic risk variants. The aim of this study was to systematically review the findings and quality of previous AAA GWAS. METHODS: The Medline, PubMed, Web of Science and relevant genetic databases were searched to identify previous AAA GWAS. A framework was developed to grade the methodological quality of the GWAS. Data from included studies were extracted to assess methods and findings. RESULTS: Eight case-control studies were included. Thirty-three of the 38 total single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously reported were associated with AAA diagnosis at genome-wide significance (p < 5.0 × 10-8). The CDKN2B antisense RNA-1 gene had the most significant association with AAA diagnosis (p = 6.94 × 10-29 and p = 1.54 × 10-33 for rs4007642 and rs10757274 respectively). Age, sex and smoking history were not reported for the complete cohort in any of the included studies, although five of the eight studies adjusted or matched for at least two confounding variables. All included studies had important design limitations including lack of sample size estimation, inconsistent case and control ascertainment and limited phenotyping of the AAAs. AAA growth was assessed in one GWAS, however, no significant associations with the reported SNPs were found. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review identified 33 SNPs associated with AAA diagnosis at genome-wide significance previously validated in multiple cohorts. The association between SNPs and AAA growth was not adequately examined. Previous GWAS have a number of design limitations.

Correction: A missense variant in Mitochondrial Amidoxime Reducing Component 1 gene and protection against liver disease.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgen.1008629.].

Evaluating the Cost-Effectiveness of Changes to the Surveillance Intervals in the UK Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Screening Programme.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the safety and cost-effectiveness of lengthening the time between surveillance ultrasound scans in the UK Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (AAA) Screening Programme. METHODS: A discrete event simulation model was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of AAA screening for men aged 65, comparing current surveillance intervals to 6 alternative surveillance interval strategies that lengthened the time between surveillance scans for 1 or more AAA size categories. The model considered clinical events and costs incurred over a 30-year time horizon and the cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). The model adopted the National Health Service perspective and discounted future costs and benefits at 3.5%. RESULTS: Compared with current practice, alternative surveillance strategies resulted in up to a 4% reduction in the number of elective AAA repairs but with an increase of up to 1.6% in the number of AAA ruptures and AAA-related deaths. Alternative strategies resulted in a small reduction in QALYs compared to current practice but with reduced costs. Two strategies that lengthened surveillance intervals in only very small AAAs (3.0-3.9 cm) provided, at a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20 000 per QALY, the highest positive incremental net benefit. There was negligible chance that current practice is the most cost-effective strategy at any threshold below £40 000 per QALY. CONCLUSIONS: Lengthening surveillance intervals in the UK Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Screening Programme, especially for small AAA, can marginally reduce the incremental cost per QALY of the program. Nevertheless, whether the cost savings from refining surveillance strategies justifies a change in clinical practice is unclear.