[Age-specific regional characteristics of COVID-19 mortality in 2021]. / A COVID­19-halandóság életkor-specifikus regionális jellemzoi 2021-ben.

INTRODUCTION: In most countries, COVID-19 mortality increases exponentially with age, but the growth rate varies considerably between countries. The different progression of mortality may reflect differences in population health, the quality of health care or coding practices. OBJECTIVE: In this study, we investigated differences in age-specific county characteristics of COVID-19 mortality in the second year of the pandemic. METHOD: Age-specific patterns of COVID-19 adult mortality were estimated according to county level and sex using a Gompertz function with multilevel models. RESULTS: The Gompertz function is suitable for describing age patterns of COVID-19 adult mortality at county level. We did not find significant differences in the age progression of mortality between counties, but there were significant spatial differences in the level of mortality. The mortality level showed a relationship with socioeconomic and health care indicators with the expected sign, but with different strengths. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic in 2021 resulted in a decline in life expectancy in Hungary not seen since World War II. The study highlights the importance of healthcare in addition to social vulnerability. It also points out that understanding age patterns will help to mitigate the consequences of the epidemic. Orv Hetil. 2023; 164(17): 643-650.

A Population-Level Study Concerning the Assumed Association Between Suicide Rates and Antidepressant Consumption in Hungary.

BACKGROUND: It has been claimed that the advent of modern antidepressants has reduced the suicide rate. AIMS: To examine the correlation between the suicide rate and the prescription of antidepressants. METHOD: A dynamic regression was employed to analyze a 73-month-long, monthly time series between 2010 and 2016 in Hungary. The independent variable was the Defined Daily Dose value for the number of antidepressant (AD) prescriptions filled each month. RESULTS: The models failed to show a significant association between the prescription of antidepressants and age- and sex-specific monthly suicide rates. CONCLUSIONS: The prescription of antidepressants in Hungary has had no impact on suicide rates.

The effects of sunshine duration and ambient temperature on suicides in Hungary.

BACKGROUND: A couple of studies suggest that sunshine duration and ambient temperature contribute to suicide. Few studies have happened in East-Central European area. OBJECTIVE: We scrutinized the daily suicide rates and other measured meteorological parameters spanning from 1971 to 2013 in the region of Hungary exhibiting the highest suicide rate. METHODS: The meteorological parameters measured in the area signified the independent variables of the statistical model, while the observed suicide rate connoted the dependent variable. Dynamic Regression, a time series analytical method was employed for creating the model. RESULTS: Three meteorological parameters displayed a weak, yet statistically significant relationship with suicide rates. 1/ Daily sunshine duration has shown an immediate, significant positive correlation, 2/ daily changes in temperature at ground level also exhibited a significant relationship, albeit it followed a complex transient profile overarching three days. Tropopause height was also significant in the model: an immediate positive effect was followed by a negative effect six days later. CONCLUSIONS: We estimated consistent and immediate positive associations between daily suicide and daily change of elevated ambient temperature and duration of sunshine in a high rated area of Hungary.

[Forty years (1979-2019) of our working group in the service of Hungarian and international suicidology]. / Munkacsoportunk 40 éves tevékenysége (1979­2019) a hazai és a nemzetközi szuicidológia szolgálatában.

In our study we have summarised the various fields of our suicide research made in the last 40 years. We have devided our whole publications into thematic chapters: cultural-history, regional differences, follow-up studies, prenvention, ecological researches, mostly sociology. Some of them had been firstly published in Hungarian or/and also in international literature. We repeatedly reiterate the importance of writing a Hungarian suicide prevention program. We agree with the opinion: "Suicide prevention is far more than a psychiatric business".

Moon/sun - suicide.

INTRODUCTION: Findings concerning the effects of moon phases and sun activity on suicide are mixed in the international literature. AIM: Our aim was to examine the hypothesised effects according to gender and age on Hungarian data covering more than 30 years. METHODS: Time series ARIMA models and dynamic regression models were applied in our analysis. RESULTS: Among women aged 20-49 years, a significant increase in the risk of suicide has been observed during proton solar events. At the same time, among women aged 50-59 years a slight but significant decrease has been identified in the risk of suicide during magnetic storms and full moons. CONCLUSION: Proton solar events, geomagnetic storms and moon phases caused changes in the risk of suicide in certain age groups in the case of women only.

[Lottery and suicide - the effect of number of lottery tickets on Hungarian suicide rates].

AIM: The relationship of suicide and gambling is a neglected field in the study of suicidology. In Hungary, no statistical studies have been published to date with regard to the whole of the population. Our study investigates the relationship between a very popular high prize game, lottery, and suicide rates. METHOD: The relationship between daily rates of suicide by gender and age and the number of winning tickets has been analysed over the periods between 1991 and 1997 and from 1997 to 2013. During the first period of time examined, the lottery draws took place on Fridays, while they were held on Saturdays in the second. Time series covariance analysis based on ARIMA modelling on detrended data was used to test the relationship of gambling and self-destruction. RESULTS: Out of the 27 models tested, the only significant models, which are also in line with what can be expected based on the literature, could be found during the period when the draws took place on Fridays. Corresponding to the increase in the number of lottery tickets, there was also an increase in the number of suicides somewhat delayed in time. The relationship only held true for males with one exception. CONCLUSIONS: In our study, we found a weak positive relationship between rates of suicide and the spread of the lottery game. The significance of our study is well reflected by the fact that - to the best of our knowledge - this effect has never been investigated on such a large sample before. Our results point to the significance of cultural and social factors, to differences in gender roles, and to the accentuated role of the factor of hopelessness in shaping the suicide scene in Hungary. In order to clarify the role of different factors in more detail, there seems to be a need for further studies on suicide conducted on large samples.

[Relationship between the number of hours of sunshine and the number of (violent) suicides in Hungary]. / A napfényes órák és a (violens) öngyilkosságok számának összefüggése Magyarországon.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Aim - Studying the impact of the sunshine on the numbers of suicides. The number of suicides is highest in the late spring and early summer months, while it is lowest in the cold, gloomy winter. Although the exact causes are still unknown, there are some theories about this phenomenon. A number of studies conducted in recent years have concluded that the rise in suicide rate during the warm months might be due to an increased exposure to sunlight, especially in the cases of the violent method. We studied the validity of this hypothesis on a large Hungarian database. METHODS: We analyzed the number of monthly hours of sunshine and the number of suicides by sex and by violent vs. non-violent method over a 360-month period. Our sample consisted of 127 877 committed suicides between 1971 and 2000. The parabolic trend of seasonality had to be removed from the suicide time series, then regression analysis was conducted on the seasonally adjusted data. RESULTS: Our analysis revealed that in Hungary there was no statistically significant direct relationship between the number of hours of sunshine and the number of suicides. Moreover, there was no correlation between the hours of sunshine and the number of violent suicides either. CONCLUSION: If the above claim were confirmed in subsequent research, it would mean that our current therapeutic regime should be reconsidered during the spring-summer seasons.

An ecological study of Hungarian suicide data using complex statistical methods

Background and Objectives: According to a number of psychiatrists, the decrease in the number of suicides can almost exclusively be ascribed to the increasing use of new antidepressants (ADs). Several ecological studies have been carried out to lend support to this claim; unfortunately, many of these started out from either methodologically or statistically flawed assumptions. The purpose of the current study is to demonstrate the examined relationships using complex time-series techniques on Hungarian national sample. Methods: When investigating the relationships between our time series, first we ensured their stationarity using several methods. We used two methods for the analysis involving several independent variables. Results: When using dynamic regression to ensure stationarity, the residuals of the suicide and AD time series showed a significant negative correlation. At the same time, when using the more robust technique of time series differentiation, the stationary time series showed no significant relationship between the use of antidepressants and suicide rates. Conclusions: The models fitting our data showed somewhat mixed results. The vagueness of ecological models is well demonstrated by the fact that even those sociological variables (number of divorces, alcohol consumption) failed to show a significant relationship with suicides here, which are usually significant in analyses using micro data (AU)

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[Ecological study of the Hungarian suicide data using complex statistical methods]. / A Magyar öngyilkossági adatok ökologiai vizsgálata complex statisztikai módszerekkel.

UNLABELLED: Problem posing:According to a number of psychiatrists, the decrease in the number of suicides can almost exclusively be ascribed to the increasing use of new antidepressants (ADs). Several ecological studies have been carried out to lend support to this claim; unfortunately, many of these started out from either methodologically or statistically flawed assumptions. The purpose of the current study is to demonstrate the examined relationships using complex time-series techniques on our national sample. METHOD: When investigating the relationships between our time series, first we ensured their stationarity using several methods. We used two methods for the analysis involving several independent variables. RESULTS: The models fitting our data showed somewhat mixed results. When using dynamic regression to ensure stationarity, the residuals of the suicide and AD time series showed a significant negative correlation. At the same time, when using the more robust technique of time series differentiation, the stationary time series showed no significant relationship between the use of antidepressants and suicide rates. Moreover, those regression models in which several independent variables were entered to control for the AD data showed no significant relationship between the variables either. A further detail is provided by the fact that according to our calculations, suicide rates are not Granger caused by the amount of antidepressants sold. However, the vagueness of ecological models is well demonstrated by the fact that even those sociological variables (number of divorces, alcohol consumption) failed to show a significant relationship with suicides here, which are usually significant in analyses using micro data.

The Effects of Significant International Sports Events on Hungarian Suicide Rates.

BACKGROUND: Several studies found a significant relationship between important sport events and suicidal behavior. AIMS: We set out to investigate whether there is a significant relationship between the raw suicide rate and the most important international sports events (Olympic Games, FIFA World Cup, UEFA European Championship) in such an achievement-oriented society as the Hungarian one, where these sport events receive great attention. METHOD: We examined suicide cases occurring over 15,706 days between January 1, 1970, and December 31, 2012 (43 years), separately for each gender. Because of the age-specific characteristics of suicide, the effects of these sport events were analyzed for the middle-aged (30-59 years old) and the elderly (over 60 years old) generations as well as for gender-specific population groups. The role of international sport events was examined with the help of time-series intervention analysis after cyclical and seasonal components were removed. Intervention analysis was based on the ARIMA model. RESULTS: Our results showed that only the Olympic Games had a significant effect in the middle-aged population. Neither in the older male nor in any of the female age groups was a relationship between suicide and Olympic Games detected. CONCLUSION: The Olympic Games seem to decrease the rate of suicide among middle-aged men, slightly but significantly.

[Effect of the summer Olympic Games on Hungarian suicide rates]. / A nyári olimpiai játékok hatása a magyarországi öngyilkossági adatokra.

In our study, we set out to investigate whether there is a significant relationship between the count (raw rate) of suicides committed and the summer Olympic Games in such an achievement-oriented society like the Hungarian one, where summer Olympic Games receive extremely considerable attention. For our study, we examined the suicide cases occurring over 15706 days between 1 January 1970 and 31 December 2012 (43 years), separately for each gender. Because of the age-specific characteristics of suicide, the effect of the Olympic Games was analysed for the middle-aged (30-60 year-old) and the elderly (over 60 year-old) generations, as well as for the whole gender specific population. The role of the summer Olympic Games was examined with the help of time series intervention analysis after the cyclical and seasonal components have been removed. Based on our results, the effect of the Olympic Games is significant for the middle-aged (30-60 year-old) population. Neither in the older male, nor in any of the female age groups could a relationship between suicide and this sports event be detected. In summary, the Olympic Games seem to decrease the rate of suicide among middle-aged men slightly but significantly. In the interpretation of our results we emphasise the importance of the complex approach of suicidal behavior.

[The effect of birthday in the fluctuation of suicides in Hungary(1970-2002)]. / A születésnap hatása az öngyilkossági számok alakulására Magyarországon (1970-2002).

Authors review the literature related to the suicide and the victims' birthday, but they have not found study, which have shown a strong connection. They investigated a large Hungarian sample using the well-known methods, but they have applied also a new one supposing they will found some connection. All the three methods have shown a strong relationship between the date of birthday and the date of suicide among man in all age-groups: namely, much more man committed suicide on his birthday than on other days of the year. Only a slight significant connection they found among the female aged 60 and more. Authors did search the conceivable causes (sociologic, cultural etc.) but they have not found any explanation. The cause is presumably is the special sensibility of the Hungarian man.

The impact of holidays on suicide in Hungary.

The suicide rate on religious and public holidays was examined for 133,699 suicides for Hungary for the period 1970-2002. For both men and women, more suicides were committed on Monday, while fewer were committed on the weekends. More suicides occurred on New Year's Day than expected. On Christmas Day and on Easter Sunday and Monday, suicides were less frequent only for men, a result consistent with Durkheim's theory. There was less evidence for Gabennesch's broken promise effect on the days after the holidays. National holidays had no impact on the frequency of suicide.

Seasonal fluctuation of suicide in Hungary between 1970-2000.

The authors studied the seasonal fluctuation of suicide events in Hungary in a 31-year period. A summer maximum and a winter minimum were found in both genders. A second autumn peak did not occur among women. The suicide rate of Hungary fell markedly in 1998, parallel with the fundamental political-economical-social changes in the country. After 1988 the ANOVA statistic did show a moderate decrease in the seasonal fluctuation but only among those under 29 years of age. This young generation was the real "winner" of the deep social changes which suggests an indirect connection between the decrease of the seasonal fluctuation of suicide and the socio-political changes.

[The effect of public holidays on the suicide drive (frequency) in Hungary (1970-2002)]. / Az ünnepek hatása az öngyilkossági hajlandóságra Magyarországon (1970-2002).

INTRODUCTION: The aim of the study was to examine the relationship between suicide frequency and the days of the week and major public holidays in Hungary (1970-2002). The analysis was based on data of approximately 140,000 suicides. The authors intended to examine whether the "broken promise effect" (Gabennesch), which is cited with increasing frequency in the literature, is valid also in Hungary or not. RESULTS: Suicides occur most frequently on Monday and least on weekends for both males and females. On the days of Christmas and Easter the suicide drive has decreased among males only. The first day of the year is associated with a large increase of suicide risk in both genders, while there appears to be no change in suicide-frequency on the public holidays of 1st May and 20th August. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of our study confirm the validity of the "broken-promise effect" theory also under Hungarian circumstances. It is a very important to know that suicides do not show an increase on and before weekend and public holidays, but after the following day(s). This finding can be an important aspect when preventive measures are adopted.