Thirty-Day Mortality Following Systemic Anticancer Therapy: Evaluating Risk Factors Without Selection Bias in a Real-World, Population-Based Cohort From 2009 to 2019.

AIMS: Risk factors for systemic anticancer therapies (SACTs) administered close to death derived from existing quality indicators are not directly applicable in the clinic, because they condition on future events, which leads to selection bias. This study aimed to adapt a previously suggested indicator for its use in a clinical context and to evaluate it in a real-world, population-based cohort of cancer patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: An improved version of the '30-day mortality after SACT' indicator suggested by Wallington et al. (Lancet Oncol 2016; 17:1203-16) was defined. All SACTs (n = 16 622) for all patients (n = 10 213) treated for common malignancies between 2009 and 2019 in the North Denmark Region were included. The results for the improved and Wallington's indicators were calculated and compared. RESULTS: Overall, the association between clinical variables and 30-day mortality following SACT was similar for both indicators, except for the 75+ years age group. However, Wallington's indicator showed varying absolute risk when comparing values for quarterly and yearly observation intervals. The improved and Wallington's indicators showed large differences between curative (1.0% and 1.1%, respectively) and palliative SACTs (9.1% and 11.7%, respectively). For palliative SACTs, different types of malignancy presented with large variations for the improved indicator, ranging from above 10% for gastroesophageal, pancreatic and lung cancers to below 4% for prostate cancers. The value of the improved indicator was significantly lower in the last years of the study period compared with the 2009-2011 period. The type of malignancy was also associated with significant differences. CONCLUSIONS: We defined an indicator adapted to the clinical context evaluating 30-day mortality following SACT. This indicator can be used to identify risk factors to help with clinical decision-making. A significant downward trend was observed in the 30-day mortality following palliative SACT over an 11-year period.

Review: How to improve genomic predictions in small dairy cattle populations.

This paper reviews strategies and methods to improve accuracies of genomic predictions from the perspective of a numerically small population. Improvements are realized by influencing one or both of the main factors: (1) improve or increase genomic connections to phenotypic records in training data. (2) Models and strategies to focus genomic predictions on markers closer to the causative variants. Combining populations into a joint reference population results in high improvements when combining populations of the same breed and diminishes as the genetic distance between populations increases. For distantly related breeds sophisticated Bayesian variable selection models in combination with denser markers sets or functional subsets of markers is needed. This is expected to be further improved by the efficient use of sequence information. In addition predictions can be improved by the use of phenotypes of genotyped and non-genotyped cows directly. For a small population the optimal approach will combine the above components.

Quantitative trait loci markers derived from whole genome sequence data increases the reliability of genomic prediction.

This study investigated the effect on the reliability of genomic prediction when a small number of significant variants from single marker analysis based on whole genome sequence data were added to the regular 54k single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array data. The extra markers were selected with the aim of augmenting the custom low-density Illumina BovineLD SNP chip (San Diego, CA) used in the Nordic countries. The single-marker analysis was done breed-wise on all 16 index traits included in the breeding goals for Nordic Holstein, Danish Jersey, and Nordic Red cattle plus the total merit index itself. Depending on the trait's economic weight, 15, 10, or 5 quantitative trait loci (QTL) were selected per trait per breed and 3 to 5 markers were selected to tag each QTL. After removing duplicate markers (same marker selected for more than one trait or breed) and filtering for high pairwise linkage disequilibrium and assaying performance on the array, a total of 1,623 QTL markers were selected for inclusion on the custom chip. Genomic prediction analyses were performed for Nordic and French Holstein and Nordic Red animals using either a genomic BLUP or a Bayesian variable selection model. When using the genomic BLUP model including the QTL markers in the analysis, reliability was increased by up to 4 percentage points for production traits in Nordic Holstein animals, up to 3 percentage points for Nordic Reds, and up to 5 percentage points for French Holstein. Smaller gains of up to 1 percentage point was observed for mastitis, but only a 0.5 percentage point increase was seen for fertility. When using a Bayesian model accuracies were generally higher with only 54k data compared with the genomic BLUP approach, but increases in reliability were relatively smaller when QTL markers were included. Results from this study indicate that the reliability of genomic prediction can be increased by including markers significant in genome-wide association studies on whole genome sequence data alongside the 54k SNP set.

Genome-wide association study using high-density single nucleotide polymorphism arrays and whole-genome sequences for clinical mastitis traits in dairy cattle.

Mastitis is a mammary disease that frequently affects dairy cattle. Despite considerable research on the development of effective prevention and treatment strategies, mastitis continues to be a significant issue in bovine veterinary medicine. To identify major genes that affect mastitis in dairy cattle, 6 chromosomal regions on Bos taurus autosome (BTA) 6, 13, 16, 19, and 20 were selected from a genome scan for 9 mastitis phenotypes using imputed high-density single nucleotide polymorphism arrays. Association analyses using sequence-level variants for the 6 targeted regions were carried out to map causal variants using whole-genome sequence data from 3 breeds. The quantitative trait loci (QTL) discovery population comprised 4,992 progeny-tested Holstein bulls, and QTL were confirmed in 4,442 Nordic Red and 1,126 Jersey cattle. The targeted regions were imputed to the sequence level. The highest association signal for clinical mastitis was observed on BTA 6 at 88.97 Mb in Holstein cattle and was confirmed in Nordic Red cattle. The peak association region on BTA 6 contained 2 genes: vitamin D-binding protein precursor (GC) and neuropeptide FF receptor 2 (NPFFR2), which, based on known biological functions, are good candidates for affecting mastitis. However, strong linkage disequilibrium in this region prevented conclusive determination of the causal gene. A different QTL on BTA 6 located at 88.32 Mb in Holstein cattle affected mastitis. In addition, QTL on BTA 13 and 19 were confirmed to segregate in Nordic Red cattle and QTL on BTA 16 and 20 were confirmed in Jersey cattle. Although several candidate genes were identified in these targeted regions, it was not possible to identify a gene or polymorphism as the causal factor for any of these regions.

Comparison of different methods for imputing genome-wide marker genotypes in Swedish and Finnish Red Cattle.

This study investigated the imputation accuracy of different methods, considering both the minor allele frequency and relatedness between individuals in the reference and test data sets. Two data sets from the combined population of Swedish and Finnish Red Cattle were used to test the influence of these factors on the accuracy of imputation. Data set 1 consisted of 2,931 reference bulls and 971 test bulls, and was used for validation of imputation from 3,000 markers (3K) to 54,000 markers (54K). Data set 2 contained 341 bulls in the reference set and 117 in the test set, and was used for validation of imputation from 54K to high density [777,000 markers (777K)]. Both test sets were divided into 4 groups according to their relationship to the reference population. Five imputation methods (Beagle, IMPUTE2, findhap, AlphaImpute, and FImpute) were used in this study. Imputation accuracy was measured as the allele correct rate and correlation between imputed and true genotypes. Results demonstrated that the accuracy was lower when imputing from 3K to 54K than from 54K to 777K. Using various imputation methods, the allele correct rates varied from 93.5 to 97.1% when imputing from 3K to 54K, and from 97.1 to 99.3% when imputing from 54K to 777K; IMPUTE2 and Beagle resulted in higher accuracies and were more robust under various conditions than the other 3 methods when imputing from 3K to 54K. The accuracy of imputation using FImpute was similar to those results from Beagle and IMPUTE2 when imputing from 54K to high density, and higher than the remaining 2 methods. The results also showed that a closer relationship between test set and reference set led to a higher accuracy for all the methods. In addition, the correct rate was higher when the minor allele frequency was lower, whereas the correlation coefficient was lower when the minor allele frequency was lower. The results indicate that Beagle and IMPUTE2 provide the most robust and accurate imputation accuracies, but considering computing time and memory usage, FImpute is another alternative method.

Short communication: genotype imputation within and across Nordic cattle breeds.

This study investigated the accuracies of imputation from 50K genotypes to high-density genotypes for animals from the Danish, Swedish, or Finnish Red dairy cattle populations, using either a national, combined Red, or combined Red and Holstein reference population. Combining the Red populations increased the imputation accuracy for all 3 populations compared with using single-nationality references. Including Holstein animals in the reference further increased the imputation accuracy for Danish Red.

Influence of model specifications on the reliabilities of genomic prediction in a Swedish-Finnish red breed cattle population.

Using a combined multi-breed reference population, this study explored the influence of model specification and the effect of including a polygenic effect on the reliability of genomic breeding values (DGV and GEBV). The combined reference population consisted of 2986 Swedish Red Breed (SRB) and Finnish Ayrshire (FAY) dairy cattle. Bayesian methodology (common prior and mixture models with different prior distribution settings for the marker effects) as well as a best linear unbiased prediction with a genomic relationship matrix [genomic best linear unbiased predictor (GBLUP)] was used in the prediction of DGV. Mixture models including a polygenic effect were used to predict GEBV. In total, five traits with low, high and medium heritability were analysed. For the models using a mixture prior distribution, reliabilities of DGV tended to decrease with an increasing proportion of markers with small effects. The influence of the inclusion of a polygenic effect on the reliability of DGV varied across traits and model specifications. Average correlation between DGV with the Mendelian sampling term, across traits, was highest (R(2) = 0.25) for the GBLUP model and decreased with increasing proportion of markers with large effects. Reliabilities increased when DGV and parent average information were combined in an index. The GBLUP model with the largest gain across traits in the reliability of the index achieved the highest DGV mean reliability. However, the polygenic models showed to be less biased and more consistent in the estimation of DGV regardless of the model specifications compared with the mixture models without the polygenic effect.

Comparison of genomic predictions using medium-density (∼54,000) and high-density (∼777,000) single nucleotide polymorphism marker panels in Nordic Holstein and Red Dairy Cattle populations.

This study investigated genomic prediction using medium-density (∼54,000; 54K) and high-density marker panels (∼777,000; 777K), based on data from Nordic Holstein and Red Dairy Cattle (RDC). The Holstein data comprised 4,539 progeny-tested bulls, and the RDC data 4,403 progeny-tested bulls. The data were divided into reference data and test data using October 1, 2001, as a cut-off date (birth date of the bulls). This resulted in about 25% genotyped bulls in the Holstein test data and 20% in the RDC test data. For each breed, 3 data sets of markers were used to predict breeding values: (1) 54K data set with missing genotypes, (2) 54K data set where missing genotypes were imputed, and (3) imputed high-density (HD) marker data set created by imputing the 54K data to the HD data based on 557 bulls genotyped using a 777K single nucleotide polymorphism chip in Holstein, and 706 bulls in RDC. Based on the 3 marker data sets, direct genomic breeding values (DGV) for protein, fertility, and udder health were predicted using a genomic BLUP model (GBLUP) and a Bayesian mixture model with 2 normal distributions. Reliability of DGV was measured as squared correlations between deregressed proofs (DRP) and DGV corrected for reliability of DRP. Unbiasedness was assessed by regression of DRP on DGV, based on the bulls in the test data sets. Averaged over the 3 traits, reliability of DGV based on the HD markers was 0.5% higher than that based on the 54K data in Holstein, and 1.0% higher than that in RDC. In addition, the HD markers led to an improvement of unbiasedness of DGV. The Bayesian mixture model led to 0.5% higher reliability than the GBLUP model in Holstein, but not in RDC. Imputing missing genotypes in the 54K marker data did not improve genomic predictions for most of the traits.

Reliabilities of genomic estimated breeding values in Danish Jersey.

In order to optimize the use of genomic selection in breeding plans, it is essential to have reliable estimates of the genomic breeding values. This study investigated reliabilities of direct genomic values (DGVs) in the Jersey population estimated by three different methods. The validation methods were (i) fivefold cross-validation and (ii) validation on the most recent 3 years of bulls. The reliability of DGV was assessed using squared correlations between DGV and deregressed proofs (DRPs). In the recent 3-year validation model, estimated reliabilities were also used to assess the reliabilities of DGV. The data set consisted of 1003 Danish Jersey bulls with conventional estimated breeding values (EBVs) for 14 different traits included in the Nordic selection index. The bulls were genotyped for Single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers using the Illumina 54 K chip. A Bayesian method was used to estimate the SNP marker effects. The corrected squared correlations between DGV and DRP were on average across all traits 0.04 higher than the squared correlation between DRP and the pedigree index. This shows that there is a gain in accuracy due to incorporation of marker information compared with parent index pre-selection only. Averaged across traits, the estimates of reliability of DGVs ranged from 0.20 for validation on the most recent 3 years of bulls and up to 0.42 for expected reliabilities. Reliabilities from the cross-validation were on average 0.24. For the individual traits, the reliability varied from 0.12 (direct birth) to 0.39 (milk). Bulls whose sires were included in the reference group had an average reliability of 0.25, whereas the bulls whose sires were not included in the reference group had an average reliability that was 0.05 lower.

Reliabilities of genomic prediction using combined reference data of the Nordic Red dairy cattle populations.

This study investigated the possibility of increasing the reliability of direct genomic values (DGV) by combining reference populations. The data were from 3,735 bulls from Danish, Swedish, and Finnish Red dairy cattle populations. Single nucleotide polymorphism markers were fitted as random variables in a Bayesian model, using published estimated breeding values as response variables. In total, 17 index traits were analyzed. Reliabilities were estimated using a 5-fold cross validation, and calculated as the within-year squared correlation between estimated breeding values and DGV. Marker effects were estimated using reference populations from individual countries, as well as using a combined reference population from all 3 countries. Single-country reference populations gave mean reliabilities across 17 traits of 0.19 to 0.23, whereas the combined reference gave mean reliabilities of 0.26 for all populations. Using marker effects from 1 population to predict the other 2 gave a loss in mean reliability of 0.14 to 0.21 when predicting Swedish or Finnish animals with Danish marker effects, or vice versa. Using Swedish or Finnish marker effects to predict each other only showed a loss in mean reliability of 0.03 to 0.05. A combined Swedish-Finnish reference population led to an average reliability as high as that from the 3-country reference population, but somewhat different for individual traits. The results from this study show that it is possible to increase the reliability of DGV by combining reference populations from related populations.

Effect of imputing markers from a low-density chip on the reliability of genomic breeding values in Holstein populations.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the imputation error and loss of reliability of direct genomic values (DGV) or genomically enhanced breeding values (GEBV) when using genotypes imputed from a 3,000-marker single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) panel to a 50,000-marker SNP panel. Data consisted of genotypes of 15,966 European Holstein bulls from the combined EuroGenomics reference population. Genotypes with the low-density chip were created by erasing markers from 50,000-marker data. The studies were performed in the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, and Sweden) using a BLUP model for prediction of DGV and in France using a genomic marker-assisted selection approach for prediction of GEBV. Imputation in both studies was done using a combination of the DAGPHASE 1.1 and Beagle 2.1.3 software. Traits considered were protein yield, fertility, somatic cell count, and udder depth. Imputation of missing markers and prediction of breeding values were performed using 2 different reference populations in each country: either a national reference population or a combined EuroGenomics reference population. Validation for accuracy of imputation and genomic prediction was done based on national test data. Mean imputation error rates when using national reference animals was 5.5 and 3.9% in the Nordic countries and France, respectively, whereas imputation based on the EuroGenomics reference data set gave mean error rates of 4.0 and 2.1%, respectively. Prediction of GEBV based on genotypes imputed with a national reference data set gave an absolute loss of 0.05 in mean reliability of GEBV in the French study, whereas a loss of 0.03 was obtained for reliability of DGV in the Nordic study. When genotypes were imputed using the EuroGenomics reference, a loss of 0.02 in mean reliability of GEBV was detected in the French study, and a loss of 0.06 was observed for the mean reliability of DGV in the Nordic study. Consequently, the reliability of DGV using the imputed SNP data was 0.38 based on national reference data, and 0.48 based on EuroGenomics reference data in the Nordic validation, and the reliability of GEBV using the imputed SNP data was 0.41 based on national reference data, and 0.44 based on EuroGenomics reference data in the French validation.