An observational investigation of unemployment, underemployment, and competitive integrated employment of people with intellectual and developmental disabilities in 2021-2022.

BACKGROUND: Employment is an important component of community living, and a precursor to economic stability and independence. Despite this, research consistently demonstrates people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) have low rates of community-based employment. However, little research has been conducted to quantify competitive integrated employment, and which individuals have better employment outcomes as it relates to competitive integrated employment. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to explore the ways in which key service-related and demographic characteristics of individuals with IDD are associated with participation in competitive integrated employment. METHODS: We used the 2021-2022 National Core Indicators Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities In-Person Survey dataset. We conducted bivariate and multivariate analyses, using chi-square and generalized linear models, to examine the cross-sectional relationship between employment and demographic and service-related characteristics for 4629 individuals with IDD. RESULTS: Overall, 42% of the sample was unemployed but wanted a job, while 39% were underemployed and just 21% have competitive integrated employment. Several demographic and service-related characteristics were significantly associated with employment. After controlling for demographic and service-related correlates of employment, having an employment-related goal in one's service plan was associated with 4.5 (95% CI: 3.6-5.5) times higher odds of competitive integrated employment relative to unemployment. CONCLUSIONS: This study underscores the value of person-centered planning for improved employment outcomes. Further research is needed to fully understand potential inequities in employment and system-level factors that are associated with competitive, integrated employment, as well as solutions to improve access to customized individual employment supports for all people with IDD.

Barriers, Facilitators, and Strategies to Improve Participation of a Couple-Based Intervention to Address Women's Antiretroviral Therapy Adherence in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Couple-based interventions (CBIs), despite strong efficacy in improving numerous HIV risk behaviors, are not widely available and have not been tested to improve women's antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence. We examined barriers and facilitators to participation in a CBI based on cognitive behavioral couple therapy for women's ART adherence in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with women with HIV (n = 15) and men of mixed HIV status (n = 15). Thematic analyses were guided by the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research. RESULTS: Facilitators mostly related to the couple's relationship, including having an existing healthy relationship, men's desire to support their partners, and a potential opportunity for men's HIV disclosure. Barriers included a lack of understanding of how a CBI approach would be useful for women's ART adherence, sole focus on women if male partners were also living with HIV, and men's lack of prior HIV status disclosure to female partners. CONCLUSION: Findings indicate that relationship context and the male partner's HIV status need to be addressed during recruitment, enrolment, and during the intervention to promote uptake.

"You rise up and then you start pulling people up with you": Patient experiences with a peer-delivered behavioral activation intervention to support methadone treatment.

BACKGROUND: Although medications for opioid use disorder (MOUD) are efficacious treatments for opioid use disorder, retention remains low. Peer recovery specialists (PRSs), individuals with lived substance use and recovery experience, may be particularly well-suited to support patients receiving MOUD. While PRSs are rarely trained in evidence-based behavioral interventions other than motivational interviewing, preliminary evidence suggests that peers can deliver brief behavioral interventions, such as behavioral activation, with efficacy and fidelity. This qualitative study sought to explore patient perspectives on receiving an adapted PRS-delivered behavioral activation intervention (Peer Activate) to support patients receiving methadone treatment. METHODS: The sample (N = 26) included patients recently starting or demonstrating challenges with adherence at a community-based methadone treatment program who received the Peer Activate intervention in a pilot trial. Participants were invited to participate in in-depth, semi-structured interviews at study completion or discontinuation, assessing perceived acceptability and feasibility of Peer Activate, and stigma-related barriers. Interview transcripts were coded using codebook/template thematic analysis. RESULTS: Analysis revealed the importance of two areas to promote intervention acceptability: 1) connection with intervention content and skill building, and 2) valued PRS-specific qualities. Intervention flexibility was found to promote feasibility of the intervention in the context of chaotic and challenging life circumstances. Additionally, participants described stigma towards substance use and methadone treatment as potential barriers to engaging in methadone treatment. CONCLUSION: Results support the acceptability and feasibility to patients of this PRS-delivered behavioral activation intervention in the context of outpatient MOUD treatment among a low-income, majority racially minoritized patient population. Future intervention adaptation and implementation should focus on incorporating content related to relationships and interpersonal skills; balancing behavioral intervention content with system navigation support; maintaining flexibility; and further investigation of the impact of individual PRS attributes, including shared lived experiences, on intervention acceptability and shifts in stigma.

Peer Activate: A Feasibility Trial of a Peer-Delivered Intervention to Decrease Disparities in Substance Use, Depression, and Linkage to Substance Use Treatment.

Although effective evidence-based interventions (EBIs) exist, racial/ethnic minority individuals with lower income are less likely to have access to these interventions and may experience greater stigma in the health care system, resulting in disproportionate rates of morbidity and mortality. Peer recovery specialists (PRSs) may be uniquely suited to address barriers faced by those from impoverished areas; however, peers have not traditionally been trained in implementing EBIs. The current open-label trial (N = 8) was performed to evaluate implementation and preliminary effectiveness of an adapted EBI supporting recovery, linkage to treatment, and reduced depression. Results suggest the intervention was feasible, acceptable, and appropriate for linking individuals from a community setting to substance use treatment and could be delivered with fidelity by a peer interventionist. Participants who completed the intervention demonstrated clinically reliable decreases in substance use and depressive symptoms. Findings provide initial support for PRS dissemination of EBIs to increase linkage to care and support recovery in traditionally underserved populations. [Journal of Psychosocial Nursing and Mental Health Services, 61(11), 23-31.].

Psychosocial challenges affecting patient-defined medication for opioid use disorder treatment outcomes in a low-income, underserved population: Application of the social-ecological framework.

INTRODUCTION: Successful engagement with medication treatment for opioid use disorder is an important focus in reducing mortality associated with the opioid crisis. Mortality remains at unacceptably high levels, pointing to a need for improved understanding of factors that affect medication for opioid use disorder outcomes. This study aims to understand how barriers co-occur and interact to interfere with outcomes in methadone treatment for a low-income, underserved patient population with opioid use disorder. METHODS: This study was conducted at a community-based drug treatment center that serves a predominately low-income, racially diverse population. Guided by the social-ecological framework, we analyzed semi-structured interviews and focus groups with patients and providers working in opioid use disorder care and recovery across Baltimore City (N = 32) to assess factors that influence methadone treatment outcomes, and how barriers co-occur and interact to worsen treatment outcomes. The study used patient-centered definitions to describe successful treatment outcomes. RESULTS: Barriers described by both patients and providers fit into several broad levels: individual, interpersonal, institutional, community, and stigma. Participants described co-occurrence of many barriers. Further, the study identified potential interactive effects, such that interrelated barriers were seen as fueling one another and having a deleterious effect on treatment outcomes. Specifically, interrelationships between barriers were described for 1) unstable housing with social influences and mental health factors; 2) transportation with poor physical health and other competing responsibilities; 3) treatment program policies and schedule with competing responsibilities; and 4) stigma with poor physical and mental health. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding barriers to successful medication for opioid use disorder outcomes and considering their co-occurrence may help to identify and promote interventions to mitigate their impact. This work is intended to guide future research to adapt conceptual frameworks for understanding psychosocial and structural barriers affecting opioid use disorder treatment and ultimately intervention efforts to improve treatment outcomes.

"Sometimes you have to take the person and show them how": adapting behavioral activation for peer recovery specialist-delivery to improve methadone treatment retention.

BACKGROUND: Despite efficacy of medication for opioid use disorder, low-income, ethno-racial minoritized populations often experience poor opioid use disorder treatment outcomes. Peer recovery specialists, individuals with lived experience of substance use and recovery, are well-positioned to engage hard-to-reach patients in treatment for opioid use disorder. Traditionally, peer recovery specialists have focused on bridging to care rather than delivering interventions. This study builds on research in other low-resource contexts that has explored peer delivery of evidence-based interventions, such as behavioral activation, to expand access to care. METHODS: We sought feedback on the feasibility and acceptability of a peer recovery specialist-delivered behavioral activation intervention supporting retention in methadone treatment by increasing positive reinforcement. We recruited patients and staff at a community-based methadone treatment center and peer recovery specialist working across Baltimore City, Maryland, USA. Semi-structured interviews and focus groups inquired about the feasibility and acceptability of behavioral activation, recommendations for adaptation, and acceptability of working with a peer alongside methadone treatment. RESULTS: Participants (N = 32) shared that peer recovery specialist-delivered behavioral activation could be feasible and acceptable with adaptations. They described common challenges associated with unstructured time, for which behavioral activation could be particularly relevant. Participants provided examples of how a peer-delivered intervention could fit well in the context of methadone treatment, emphasizing the importance of flexibility and specific peer qualities. CONCLUSIONS: Improving medication for opioid use disorder outcomes is a national priority that must be met with cost-effective, sustainable strategies to support individuals in treatment. Findings will guide adaptation of a peer recovery specialist-delivered behavioral activation intervention to improve methadone treatment retention for underserved, ethno-racial minoritized individuals living with opioid use disorder.

A Pilot Study of Training Peer Recovery Specialists in Behavioral Activation in the United States: Preliminary Outcomes and Predictors of Competence.

BACKGROUND: The peer recovery specialist (PRS) workforce has rapidly expanded to increase access to substance-use disorder services for underserved communities. PRSs are not typically trained in evidence-based interventions (EBIs) outside of motivational interviewing, although evidence demonstrates the feasibility of PRS delivery of certain EBIs, such as a brief behavioral intervention, behavioral activation. However, characteristics that predict PRS competency in delivering EBIs such as behavioral activation remain unknown, and are critical for PRS selection, training, and supervision if the PRS role is expanded. This study aimed to explore the outcomes of a brief PRS training period in behavioral activation and identify predictors of competence. METHOD: Twenty PRSs in the United States completed a two-hour training on PRS-delivered behavioral activation. Participants completed baseline and post-training assessments, including roleplay and assessments of PRS characteristics, attitudes towards EBIs, and theoretically relevant personality constructs. Roleplays were coded for competence (behavioral activation specific and PRS skills more broadly, i.e., PRS competence) and changes were assessed from baseline to post-training. Linear regression models tested factors predicting post-training competence, controlling for baseline competence. RESULTS: There was a significant pre-post increase in behavioral activation competence (t = -7.02, p < 0.001). Years working as a PRS significantly predicted post-training behavioral activation skills (B = 0.16, p = 0.005). No variables predicted post-training PRS competence. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides preliminary evidence that behavioral activation may be appropriate for dissemination to PRSs through brief trainings, particularly for PRSs with more work experience. However, additional research is needed to examine predictors of competence among PRSs.

Quality monitoring of intellectual and developmental disabilities systems in the US: Assessing the utility and applicability of selected National Core Indicators to national and state priorities.

This article provides historical context on the evolution of performance measures for system improvement, examines the perspectives and insights of state public managers on the use and utility of NQF-endorsed outcome measures from the NCI®-IDD In-Person Survey (IPS) for quality improvement, and discusses the necessity of ensuring that outcome measures align with public policy goals.

Supporting Treatment for Anti-Retroviral Therapy (START) Together: Protocol for a pilot, randomized, couple-based intervention to promote women's ART adherence and men's engagement in HIV care in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

Background: South Africa currently has the greatest number of people with HIV globally. The country has not yet met its 95-95-95 goals, with different gaps in the HIV care cascade for women and men. This paper reports on a protocol to pilot test a couple-based intervention designed to improve women's antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence and men's engagement in care in heterosexual couples living in the Vulindlela area of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Study goals are two-fold: (1) assess the acceptability, feasibility, and fidelity of the experimental intervention, START Together, and (2) collect efficacy data on START Together for women's ART adherence, men's engagement in HIV care, and the couple's relationship functioning. Methods: Women (N = 20) who were not engaged with ART adherence (defined via self-reported ART difficulties, record of missed clinic visits, or viral non-suppression) are the target patients; male partners are not required to know or disclose their HIV status to be part of the study. Couples are randomized 1:1 to the experimental treatment (START Together) or treatment as usual (referrals to the local clinic to support ART adherence or any other HIV-related care). START Together is a 5-session intervention based in cognitive-behavioral couple therapy, which is a skill-based intervention focusing on communication and problem-solving skills, and Life Steps, a problem-solving intervention identifying barriers and solutions to medication adherence. Couples are assessed at baseline, post-treatment (8 weeks post-randomization), and follow-up (12 weeks post-randomization). Conclusion: This study will provide preliminary implementation and efficacy data on whether this novel approach has potential to improve women and men's HIV and healthcare-related needs.

Peer recovery specialist-delivered, behavioral activation intervention to improve retention in methadone treatment: Results from an open-label, Type 1 hybrid effectiveness-implementation pilot trial.

BACKGROUND: Despite the efficacy of methadone to treat opioid use disorder (OUD), retention is an urgent priority, particularly among low-income, minoritized populations. Peer recovery specialists are well-positioned to engage vulnerable patients, particularly when trained in an evidence-based intervention to promote retention. This hybrid effectiveness-implementation pilot trial aimed to demonstrate the proof of concept of a peer recovery specialist-delivered behavioral activation and problem solving-based approach (Peer Activate) to improve methadone retention. METHODS: Implementation outcomes included feasibility, acceptability, and fidelity. Feasibility and acceptability were defined by the percentage of participants who initiated the intervention (≥75%) and completed ≥75% of core sessions, respectively. Fidelity was assessed via independent rating of a randomly selected 20% of sessions. The primary effectiveness outcome was methadone retention at three-months post-intervention vs. a comparison cohort initiating methadone during the same time period. Secondary outcomes included methadone adherence, substance use frequency, and substance use-related problems. RESULTS: Benchmarks for feasibility and acceptability were surpassed: 86.5% (32/37) initiated the intervention, and 81.3% of participants who initiated attended ≥75% of core sessions. The mean independent rater fidelity score was 87.9%, indicating high peer fidelity. For effectiveness outcomes, 88.6% of participants in Peer Activate were retained in methadone treatment at three-months post-intervention-28.9% higher than individuals initiating methadone treatment alone in the same time period [χ2(1) = 10.10, p = 0.001]. Among Peer Activate participants, urine-verified methadone adherence reached 97% at post-intervention, and there was a significant reduction in substance use frequency from 48% of past two-week days used at baseline to 31.9% at post-intervention [t(25) = 1.82, p = .041]. Among participants who completed the core Peer Activate sessions (n = 26), there was a significant reduction in substance use-related problems [t(21) = 1.84, p = 0.040]. CONCLUSION: Given the rapid scale-up of peer recovery specialist programs nationwide and the urgent need to promote methadone retention, these results, although preliminary, have important potential clinical significance. The next steps are to conduct a Type 1 hybrid effectiveness-implementation randomized trial with a larger sample size and longer-term follow-up to further establish the implementation and effectiveness of the Peer Activate approach.

COVID-19 IDD: Findings from a global survey exploring family members' and paid staff's perceptions of the impact of COVID-19 on individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) and their caregivers.

Background: A growing body of evidence attests to the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on persons with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) during the pandemic. This study asked caregivers about their perceptions of how COVID-19 impacted them and the people they support. Method: An online survey was conducted in 12 countries during August-September 2020 and sought information on demographics, support practices, information and training, experiences of COVID-19, social distancing, and wellbeing, as measured by the DASS12. This study reports on 3,754 family members, direct support professionals, and managers who participated in the survey. Results: Caregivers observed increases in depression/anxiety, stereotyped behaviours, aggression towards others and weight gain in the person(s) they supported. They also reported difficulties supporting the person(s) to access healthcare.  Families reported reducing or ceasing employment and absorbed additional costs when supporting their family member. Direct support professionals experienced changes in staff shifts, staff absences, increased workload and hiring of casual staff. Caregivers' wellbeing revealed high levels of stress, depression, and less so anxiety. The strongest predictor of wellbeing among families was observation of changes in mood in the person(s) they supported, while for direct support professionals, the strongest predictors of wellbeing were reorganisation of staff shifts and increases in new direct support staff.  Discussion: Findings support the contention of this population experiencing a disproportionate burden during the COVID-19 pandemic, reflecting historical inequities in access to healthcare and other human rights violations which are now protected under the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities.

"In their mind, they always felt less than": The role of peers in shifting stigma as a barrier to opioid use disorder treatment retention.

INTRODUCTION: A substantial, national need exists for culturally acceptable, accessible opioid use disorder (OUD) treatment. Medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD) is regarded as effective in treating OUD; however, retention in MOUD programs remains low nationally. One known barrier to MOUD retention is stigma, particularly within ethno-racial minority communities. Peer recovery specialists (PRSs), individuals with shared experience in substance use and recovery, may be particularly well suited to support patients in MOUD treatment, and may have capacity to play a key role in decreasing stigma-related barriers to MOUD retention. METHODS: This study used qualitative methods to solicit feedback on how patients receiving methadone treatment (MT) experience stigma (i.e., toward substance use [SU] and MT). Study staff also gathered information regarding how a PRS role may reduce stigma and improve retention in care, including barriers and facilitators to the PRS role shifting stigma. Study staff conducted semi-structured qualitative interviews and focus groups (N = 32) with staff and patients receiving MT at an opioid treatment program as well as PRSs in Baltimore. RESULTS: Participants identified experiences of internalized, as well as enacted and anticipated, MT and SU stigma, and described these as barriers to treatment. Participants also identified opportunities for PRSs to shift stigma-related barriers for patients receiving MT through unique aspects of the PRS role, such as their shared lived experience. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing stigma surrounding SUD and MT is critical for improving MOUD outcomes, and future research may consider how the PRS role can support this effort.

"I think it's communication and trust and sharing everything": Qualitative evidence for a model of healthy intimate relationships in Black women living with HIV and men in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

In South Africa, couple-based interventions (CBIs) have been used to increase HIV testing, reduce HIV transmission, and shift relationship dynamics. To understand local definitions of healthy relationships, this study sought to collect qualitative data on a model of healthy relationships in a semi-rural area of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We conducted semi-structured qualitative interviews with HIV-positive women (n = 15) and men of mixed HIV status (n = 15) who were in heterosexual, monogamous relationships (not with each other). Thematic analyses guided coding. Three primary healthy relationship behaviour themes emerged, labelled open communication, couple-level problem-solving, and active relationship building, which were related to various relationship facets (trust, support, respect, commitment, and connection). We purposively explored contextual themes, namely the role of HIV, positive community involvement, and power dynamics, to better situate the healthy relationship behaviour themes. HIV was not central to relationship conceptualisations and three different power structures (shared power/flexible gender norms, shared power/traditional gender norms, male-dominated power/traditional gender norms) were described as being healthy. This model of healthy relationships is similar to observed definitions in other African countries and in high-income settings. Findings can inform HIV programming content for couples in KwaZulu-Natal, particularly the active relationship building component.

En Sudáfrica, se han utilizado intervenciones basadas en la pareja para aumentar las pruebas de detección de VIH, disminuir la transmisión del VIH y cambiar la dinámica de las relaciones. Para comprender las definiciones locales de relaciones saludables, en el presente estudio se procuró recoger datos cualitativos sobre un modelo de relaciones saludables en un área semirrural de KwaZulu-Natal, Sudáfrica. Realizamos entrevistas cualitativas semiestructuradas con mujeres VIH positivo (n= 15) y hombres de estados variados en relación con el VIH (n = 15) que estaban en relaciones heterosexuales y monógamas (no entre ellos). Los análisis temáticos guiaron la codificación. Surgieron tres temas principales de conducta en las relaciones saludables: comunicación abierta marcada, resolución de problemas a nivel de la pareja, y construcción activa de la relación, que estuvieron relacionados con varios aspectos de las relaciones (la confianza, el apoyo, el respeto, el compromiso y la conexión). Analizamos específicamente temas contextuales, por ejemplo, el papel del VIH, la participación positiva en la comunidad y la dinámica de poder para ubicar mejor los temas de conducta en las relaciones saludables. El VIH no fue fundamental para las conceptualizaciones de las relaciones y se describieron como saludables tres estructuras de poder diferentes (poder compartido/normas flexibles de género, poder compartido/normas tradicionales de género, poder predominantemente masculino/normas tradicionales de género). Este modelo de relaciones saludables es similar a las definiciones observadas en otros países africanos y en ámbitos de ingresos altos. Los resultados pueden orientar el contenido de los programas sobre el VIH para parejas en KwaZulu-Natal, particularmente el componente de construcción activa de la relación.

Unrepresentative big surveys significantly overestimated US vaccine uptake.

Surveys are a crucial tool for understanding public opinion and behaviour, and their accuracy depends on maintaining statistical representativeness of their target populations by minimizing biases from all sources. Increasing data size shrinks confidence intervals but magnifies the effect of survey bias: an instance of the Big Data Paradox1. Here we demonstrate this paradox in estimates of first-dose COVID-19 vaccine uptake in US adults from 9 January to 19 May 2021 from two large surveys: Delphi-Facebook2,3 (about 250,000 responses per week) and Census Household Pulse4 (about 75,000 every two weeks). In May 2021, Delphi-Facebook overestimated uptake by 17 percentage points (14-20 percentage points with 5% benchmark imprecision) and Census Household Pulse by 14 (11-17 percentage points with 5% benchmark imprecision), compared to a retroactively updated benchmark the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published on 26 May 2021. Moreover, their large sample sizes led to miniscule margins of error on the incorrect estimates. By contrast, an Axios-Ipsos online panel5 with about 1,000 responses per week following survey research best practices6 provided reliable estimates and uncertainty quantification. We decompose observed error using a recent analytic framework1 to explain the inaccuracy in the three surveys. We then analyse the implications for vaccine hesitancy and willingness. We show how a survey of 250,000 respondents can produce an estimate of the population mean that is no more accurate than an estimate from a simple random sample of size 10. Our central message is that data quality matters more than data quantity, and that compensating the former with the latter is a mathematically provable losing proposition.

Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States.

After initial declines, in mid-2020 a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in the United States and Europe. As efforts to control COVID-19 disease are reintensified, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these affect the loosening of interventions is crucial. We analyze aggregated, age-specific mobility trends from more than 10 million individuals in the United States and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data. We estimate that as of October 2020, individuals aged 20 to 49 are the only age groups sustaining resurgent SARS-CoV-2 transmission with reproduction numbers well above one and that at least 65 of 100 COVID-19 infections originate from individuals aged 20 to 49 in the United States. Targeting interventions-including transmission-blocking vaccines-to adults aged 20 to 49 is an important consideration in halting resurgent epidemics and preventing COVID-19-attributable deaths.

Implementing a peer recovery coach model to reach low-income, minority individuals not engaged in substance use treatment.

Background: Low-income, racial/ethnic minority individuals face significant barriers in access to substance use (SU) treatment. Peer recovery coaches (PRCs), individuals with lived experience with substance use disorder (SUD), may be uniquely well suited to assist those encountering barriers to treatment. PRCs can also help reach those not engaged in treatment to promote harm reduction and support linkage-to-care when embedded in community rather than clinical settings. This study evaluated a community-based program in which a PRC facilitated linkage to and supported retention in SU treatment. Methods: Guided by the RE-AIM framework, we evaluated implementation of the intervention in a community resource center (CRC) serving homeless and low-income residents of Baltimore City. We examined the reach, effectiveness, adoption, and implementation of this PRC model. Results: Of 199 clients approached by or referred to the PRC, 39 were interested in addressing their SU. Of those interested in addressing SU, the PRC linked 64.1% (n = 25) to treatment and was able to follow up with 59.0% (n = 23) at prespecified time points after linkage (24-48 hours, 2 weeks, and 1 month). Fifty-two percent (n = 13) of clients linked to SU treatment remained in treatment at 30 days post-linkage. Of clients who did not remain in treatment, 77% (n = 10) continued contact with the PRC. Conclusions: Results indicate the utility of the CRC's approach in linking people to treatment for SU and addressing barriers to care through work with a PRC. Findings also highlight important barriers and facilitators to implementation of this model, including the need for adaptation based on individual goals and fluctuations in readiness for treatment.

State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States.

As of 1st June 2020, the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention reported 104,232 confirmed or probable COVID-19-related deaths in the US. This was more than twice the number of deaths reported in the next most severely impacted country. We jointly model the US epidemic at the state-level, using publicly available death data within a Bayesian hierarchical semi-mechanistic framework. For each state, we estimate the number of individuals that have been infected, the number of individuals that are currently infectious and the time-varying reproduction number (the average number of secondary infections caused by an infected person). We use changes in mobility to capture the impact that non-pharmaceutical interventions and other behaviour changes have on the rate of transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We estimate that Rt was only below one in 23 states on 1st June. We also estimate that 3.7% [3.4%-4.0%] of the total population of the US had been infected, with wide variation between states, and approximately 0.01% of the population was infectious. We demonstrate good 3 week model forecasts of deaths with low error and good coverage of our credible intervals.

How COVID-19 May Change the World of Services to People With Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities.

The COVID-19 epidemic caused disruption and dislocation in the lives of people with disabilities, their families, and providers. What we have learned during this period regarding the strengths and weaknesses of the service system for people with disabilities should provide a roadmap for building a more robust and agile system going forward. Based on a canvas of leaders in our field, I propose a way of outlining a reimagined system.