High-accuracy DMBE potential energy surface for CNO(A''4) and the rate coefficients for the C + NO reaction in the A'2, A''2, and A''4 states.

An accurate potential energy surface (PES) for the lowest lying A''4 state of the CNO system is presented based on explicitly correlated multi-reference configuration interaction calculations with quadruple zeta basis set (MRCI-F12/cc-pVQZ-F12). The ab initio energies are fitted using the double many-body expansion method, thus incorporating long-range energy terms that can accurately describe the electrostatic and dispersion interactions with physically motivated decaying functions. Together with the previously fitted lowest A'2 and A''2 states using the same theoretical framework, this constitutes a new set of PESs that are suitable to predict rate coefficients for all atom-diatom reactions of the CNO system. We use this set of PESs to calculate thermal rate coefficients for the C(P3) + NO(Π2) reaction and compare the temperature dependence and product branching ratios with experimental results. The comparison between theory and experiment is shown to be improved over previous theoretical studies. We highlight the importance of the long-range interactions for low-temperature rate coefficients.

Suspicious binds: Conspiracy thinking and tenuous perceptions of causal connections between co-occurring and spuriously correlated events.

Previous research indicates that conspiracy thinking is informed by the psychological imposition of order and meaning on the environment, including the perception of causal relations between random events. Four studies indicate that conspiracy belief is driven by readiness to draw implausible causal connections even when events are not random, but instead conform to an objective pattern. Study 1 (N = 195) showed that conspiracy belief was related to the causal interpretation of real-life, spurious correlations (e.g., between chocolate consumption and Nobel prizes). In Study 2 (N = 216), this effect held adjusting for correlates including magical and non-analytical thinking. Study 3 (N = 214) showed that preference for conspiracy explanations was associated with the perception that a focal event (e.g., the death of a journalist) was causally connected to similar, recent events. Study 4 (N = 211) showed that conspiracy explanations for human tragedies were favored when they comprised part of a cluster of similar events (vs. occurring in isolation); crucially, they were independently increased by a manipulation of causal perception. We discuss the implications of these findings for previous, mixed findings in the literature and for the relation between conspiracy thinking and other cognitive processes.

Motivated reasoning in the prediction of sports outcomes and the belief in the "hot hand".

The present paper explores the role of motivation to observe a certain outcome in people's predictions, causal attributions, and beliefs about a streak of binary outcomes (basketball scoring shots). In two studies we found that positive streaks (points scored by the participants' favourite team) lead participants to predict the streak's continuation (belief in the hot hand), but negative streaks lead to predictions of its end (gambler's fallacy). More importantly, these wishful predictions are supported by strategic attributions and beliefs about how and why a streak might unfold. Results suggest that the effect of motivation on predictions is mediated by a serial path via causal attributions to the teams at play and belief in the hot hand.

Phonon density of states from the experimental heat capacity: an improved distribution function for solid aluminium using an inverse framework.

In this study it is reported the retrieval of the phonon density of states for solid aluminium from the temperature dependent heat capacity, the inverse heat capacity problem. The singularity in this ill posed problem was removed by the Tikhonov approach with the regularization parameter calculated as the L curve maximum curvature. A sensitivity analysis was also coupled to the numerical inversion. For temperatures ranging from 15 K to 300 K the heat capacity results, calculated from the inverted phonon density of states, yields an average error of about 0.3%, within the experimental errors that ranged from 2% to 3%. The predicted entropy, enthalpy and Gibbs free energy are also within experimental errors.

Potential energy function information from quantum phase shift using the variable phase method.

The present work discusses quantum phase shift sensitivity analysis with respect to the potential energy function. A set of differential equations for the functional derivative of the quantum phase shift with respect to the potential energy function was established and coupled with the variable phase equation. This set of differential equations provides a simple, exact and straightforward way to establish the sensitivity matrix. The present procedure is easier to use than the finite difference approach, in which several direct problems have to be addressed. Furthermore, integration of the established equations can be used to demonstrate how the sensitivity phase shift is accumulated as a function of the interatomic distance. The potential energy function was refined to produce a better quality function. The average error on the phase shift decreased from 9.8% in the original potential function to 0.13% in the recovered potential. The present procedure is an important initial step for further work towards recovering potential energy functions in upper dimensions or to recovering this function from cross sections.