Computer simulation of dementia care demand heterogeneity using hybrid simulation methods: improving population-level modelling with individual patient decline trajectories.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to model dementia prevalence and outcomes within an ageing population using a novel hybrid simulation model that simultaneously takes population-level and patient-level perspectives to better inform dementia care service planning, taking into account severity progression variability. STUDY DESIGN: This is a simulation study. METHODS: We developed a hybrid computer simulation combining different methods to best represent population and individual dementia dynamics. Individual patient outcomes are aggregated into three progression rate types to report the effects of severity progression variability and intervention benefits. RESULTS: Fast progression of dementia severity is associated with higher annual care cost and short overall survival duration. Those patients are more likely to develop moderate to severe symptoms more quickly, highlighting a need for more urgent provision of appropriate care services. Slower severity progression is associated with lower annual care costs, but longer survival requires higher overall financial provision. Although lifestyle interventions reduce overall care costs, treatment and lifestyle intervention benefits are modest at the population level. CONCLUSIONS: Individual variation of dementia decline is an important factor to include in planning adequate levels of care services and to ensure timely and appropriate service availability. Hybrid simulation models provide useful insights at the population and individual level, supporting effective decision-making.

Who do we gain? Enhancement of blood supplies by additional testing for donors who travel.

AIMS/OBJECTIVES: To describe the impact of additional testing on the England blood supply. BACKGROUND: The blood service for England, NHS Blood and Transplant, applies a system of deferral and testing to donors with potential exposure to Chagas disease, malaria and West Nile virus; however, testing costs must be justified. Here, we describe the donations and donors gained by testing. METHODS: Donation testing results and demographic data on donors in England where additional testing was applied were analysed in 2012-2016. The total number and proportion of donations tested, reactive and confirmed positive were calculated. Proportions of donors requiring additional tests were calculated by ethnic group for first-time and repeat donors. RESULTS: Additional testing for travel was applied to 3·5% of NHSBT blood donations between 2012 and 2016. Over 98% of these tests were non-reactive. Only malaria tests were confirmed positive, in 1·7% of donations tested. In first-time donors, 45 and 40% of Asian and Black donors required an additional test, respectively, mainly for malaria. Testing for West Nile virus increased from 1·5% in 2012 to 2·2% of donations in 2016. CONCLUSION: The majority of additional tests were screened negative, allowing approximately 64 000 donations to be released for issue annually. Donors most affected by malaria testing were more likely to have rare blood groups and be targeted for recruitment, whereas those given West Nile virus testing were mainly regular donors required for continuity of supply. These data show differences in the characteristics of donors by test and can be used to inform decisions about additional testing and deferrals.

Safe supplies: few infections in UK blood and tissue donors.

AIMS/OBJECTIVES: Here, we describe the annual review of the UK blood services' infection surveillance schemes for 2017 (www.gov.uk/government/publications/safe-supplies-annual-review). BACKGROUND: The joint NHS Blood and Transplant/Public Health England Epidemiology Unit was set up in 1995 to ensure that blood and tissue safety is maintained, inform donor selection and testing policy and add to public health knowledge. METHODS: Several surveillance schemes for blood, tissues and bacterial screening collect the numbers of donations tested, reactive and confirmed positive in order to monitor trends in infection rates in donors and calculate residual risk of infection. Investigations of potential transfusion transmissions in recipients are also monitored. RESULTS: In the UK in 2017, the risk of testing not detecting a potentially infectious hepatitis B virus or hepatitis C virus or HIV donation was estimated as less than one in two million donations. One hepatitis A virus and one hepatitis E virus transmission incidents were proven to be transfusion-transmitted by unscreened donations. CONCLUSIONS: The Safe Supplies annual review provides a clear picture of the very low risk associated with blood and tissues in the UK nowadays. In November 2017, the blood services for England, Wales and Scotland implemented recommendations to reduce the deferrals for higher risk sexual behaviour from 12 to 3 months. The surveillance schemes are adapted to remain fit for purpose as testing and donor selection change.

Failure of bacterial screening to detect Staphylococcus aureus: the English experience of donor follow-up.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Between February 2011 and December 2016, over 1·6 million platelet units, 36% pooled platelets, underwent bacterial screening prior to issue. Contamination rates for apheresis and pooled platelets were 0·02% and 0·07%, respectively. Staphylococcus aureus accounted for 21 contaminations, including four pooled platelets, one confirmed transfusion-transmitted infection (TTI) and three 'near-miss' incidents detected on visual inspection which were negative on screening. We describe follow-up investigations of 16 donors for skin carriage of S. aureus and molecular characterisation of donor and pack isolates. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Units were screened by the BacT/ALERT 3D detection system. Contributing donors were interviewed and consent requested for skin and nasal swabbing. S. aureus isolates were referred for spa gene type and DNA macrorestriction profile to determine identity between carriage strains and packs. RESULTS: Donors of 10 apheresis and two pooled packs screen positive for S. aureus were confirmed as the source of contamination; seven had a history of skin conditions, predominantly eczema; 11 were nasal carriers. The 'near-miss' incidents were associated with apheresis donors, two donors harboured strains indistinguishable from the pack strain. The TTI was due to a screen-negative pooled unit, and a nasal isolate of one donor was indistinguishable from that in the unit. CONCLUSION: Staphylococcus aureus contamination is rare but potentially harmful in platelet units. Donor isolates showed almost universal correspondence in molecular type with pack isolates, thus confirming the source of contamination. The importance of visual inspection of packs prior to transfusion is underlined by the 'near-miss' incidents.

Dissecting the decline of hepatitis C in first-time donors in England and Wales.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The rate of confirmed hepatitis C virus (HCV) cases, in first-time donors, is much lower in 2015 than 20 years ago. We investigate reasons for the decline. MATERIALS AND METHODS: HCV rates were analysed by gender and birth cohort for 1996 to 2015 and ethnic group for 2006 to 2015. Variables for confirmed positive cases were compared for two ten-year periods (1996 to 2005 and 2006 to 2015) including genotyping data for 2006 to 2015. RESULTS: There were 2007 confirmed HCV cases identified between 1996 and 2015. The rate per 100 000 donations fell from 78·6 in 1996 to 26·9 by 2015. By birth cohort, HCV rates were highest in donors born in the 1950s and 1960s who contributed a decreasing proportion of first-time donors. Between 2006 and 2015, there was no significant decline in HCV rate. The HCV-positive donor profile has changed in the last 10 years with increased proportions of younger donors, donors born abroad and decreased reported injecting drug use. Genotype 1a remains predominate, but genotype 1b has increased associated with this change in birth cohort and ethnicity. CONCLUSION: The decline in number and rate of confirmed HCV-positive first-time donors is mainly due to a decrease in first-time donors born before 1970, with the highest rate of HCV. However, the decline has slowed and the profile of HCV-positive first-time donors is changing. A better understanding of behaviour and sources of HCV in younger and ethnic minority donors are needed.

Notifying blood donors of infection: results of a donor satisfaction survey.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: When NHS Blood and Transplant (NHSBT) confirms a blood donation to have markers of infection, the donor is contacted by letter to arrange a discussion about the test results and onward care. A survey was carried out to assess the level of satisfaction with this process. MATERIALS/METHODS: A questionnaire was sent to 335 donors who had been notified by NHSBT in 2008 and 2009 that they had tested positive for hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) or human T-cell lymphotropic virus (HTLV). Ratings were made using Likert scales, where the respondent indicated the level of agreement or satisfaction with statements about the initial notification letter and the subsequent post-test discussion (PTD) with the NHSBT clinician. RESULTS: There was an overall 47.5% (159/335) response rate. Fifty-eight percent (91/157) agreed that they were satisfied with the letter, but 30% (46/152) disagreed that it was easy to stay calm (average score 3.2). Scores for the letter were significantly lower in HIV and HTLV than in hepatitis for several questions. Scores for the discussion were in general higher than the initial letter, with 90% (114/127) satisfied overall, although 2 of 19 HIV positive donors remained dissatisfied. CONCLUSION: Overall, most donors were satisfied with the notification process, although scores were slightly lower for HTLV and HIV. Further audit is planned; in particular to remeasure the satisfaction with, and understanding of, the notification letter for HTLV positive donors and the telephone PTD.

Getting personal with blood donors - the rationale for, methodology of and an overview of participants in the UK blood donor survey.

OBJECTIVE: To design and pilot a survey of UK blood donors to assess, on a large scale, their understanding of and compliance with the donor selection guidelines (DSG). BACKGROUND: Compliance with the DSG is important for maintaining blood safety, however, little is currently known about the extent of this among UK donors. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The online, unlinked survey was based on the donor health check form with a focus on behaviours associated with blood borne infections, sexual contact, drug use and travel. The survey materials were reviewed by a donor focus group and the survey was piloted among 2982 UK donors. Percentage responses were calculated, complaints monitored and answers to questions reviewed. The survey went live in 2013; 225 091 donors were invited via email to participate followed by two reminders. RESULTS: The survey was well received by the focus group, with little concern about the sensitive and personal questions. Their feedback led to important refinement in the survey materials. In the pilots, 21·0% (627/2982) responded, a reminder was necessary to achieve this. Among responders, there was evidence of non-compliance and test seeking behaviour, and no evidence that intention to donate again was affected. In the live survey, 29% (65 439) responded; responders were generally representative of donors overall. CONCLUSION: A large scale survey of donor compliances is feasible, acceptable and effective in ascertaining appropriate information; involving donors and the blood services in the development stages through a focus group and pilots was important to achieve this.

Who should donate blood? Policy decisions on donor deferral criteria should protect recipients and be fair to donors.

An important element in the development of voluntary blood donation schemes throughout the world has been the attention given to minimising the risk to recipients of donated blood, primarily the risk of transfusion transmitted infections. In response to the appearance of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the 1980s a range of national policies emerged that excluded populations at high risk of contracting HIV from donating blood, with a particular focus on men who have sex with men (MSM), the primary reason being the protection of recipients of donated blood. Recently some countries, including the UK, have revised their policies, informed by advances in screening tests, epidemiological evidence of transmission rates and an increasing concern about unfair discrimination of specific groups in society. Policy makers face a difficult task of balancing safety of recipients; an adequate blood supply for those who require transfusion; and societal/legal obligations to treat everyone fairly. Given that no transfusion is risk free, the question is what degree of risk is acceptable in order to meet the needs of recipients and society. Decisions about acceptance of risk are complex and policy makers who set acceptable risk levels must provide ethically justifiable reasons for their decisions. We suggest it is possible to provide a set of reasons that stakeholders could agree are relevant based on careful evaluation of the evidence of all relevant risks and explicit acknowledgement of other morally relevant values. We describe using such a process in the Safety of Blood Tissue and Organs (SaBTO) review of donor deferral criteria related to sexual behaviour.

The risk of transfusion-transmitted HIV from blood donations of men who have sex with men, 12 months after last sex with a man: 2005-2007 estimates from England and Wales.

The risk of transfusion-transmitted HIV infection under (i) permanent exclusion and (ii) 12-month deferral of MSM in England and Wales during 2005-2007 was estimated. Assuming equal compliance with both scenarios, estimated risk under a 12-month deferral (0.228/million donations [range 0·168-0·306/million donations]) was only marginally greater (0·5%) than that under lifetime exclusion (0·227/million donations [range 0·157-0.318/million donations]), with one extra-HIV infectious donation every 455 years. Poorer compliance of MSM with a 12-month deferral would be expected to increase the estimated risk, whereas improved compliance could decrease risk by up to 29·1%.

Possible contamination of organ preservation fluid with Bacillus cereus: the United Kingdom response.

We describe here the United Kingdom (UK) response following the recent international recall of an organ preservation fluid owing to potential Bacillus cereus contamination. This fluid is used for the transport of solid organs and pancreatic islet cells for transplant. We detail the response mechanisms, including the initial risk stratification, investigatory approaches, isolate analysis and communications to professional bodies. This report further lays out the potential need for enhanced surveillance in UK transplant patients.

Strategies for screening blood donors to source convalescent H1N1v plasma for intervention therapy.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: During the 1918, pandemic blood components were successfully used to treat severe influenza pneumonia. A Proof of Principle trial investigating the clinical benefit of convalescent plasma was proposed in the 2009 H1N1v epidemic with the aim of screening donors for high titre antibody in order to stockpile plasma packs to be used for treatment for severe pneumonia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Serum samples were collected from donors. IgG antibody capture format enzyme-linked immunoassays using recombinant proteins (GACELISAs) were compared with microneutralization (MN) and haemagglutination inhibition (HAI). The influence of age and history of influenza-like illness (ILI) on the detection of high titre antibody was examined. RESULTS: 1598 unselected donor sera collected in October and December 2009 were tested by HAI. The HAI and demographic data defined a possible strategy for selective donor screening. One of the GACELISAs was highly specific for recent infection but showed lower sensitivity than HAI. CONCLUSIONS: During the 2009 pandemic screening 17- to 30-year-old donors by HAI delivered around 10% with high antibody levels. The ELISA using a short recombinant H1N1v HA detected fewer reactives but was more specific for high titre antibody (≥1:256). Screening strategies are proposed based on using HAI on serum or GACELISA on plasma.

Large outbreak of isoniazid-monoresistant tuberculosis in London, 1995 to 2006: case-control study and recommendations.

We conducted a case­control study to examine risk factors for isoniazid-monoresistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis in an ongoing outbreak in London. Cases were defined as individuals with an isoniazid-monoresistant strain diagnosed from 1995 to the third quarter of 2006 with an indistinguishable restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) or mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit (MIRU)-variable number tandem repeats (VNTR) pattern who were resident in or had epidemiological links with London. Controls were all other individuals reported with tuberculosis to the Health Protection Agency London regional epidemiology unit or the HPA London TB Register during 2000 to 2005. Of 293 cases, 153 (52%) were sputum smear-positive compared with 3,266 (18%) of controls. Cases were more likely to be young adults (aged between 15 and 34 years), born in the United Kingdom (OR: 2.4; 95% CI: 1.7­3.4) and of white (OR: 2.9; 95% CI: 1.8­4.8) or black Caribbean (OR: 12.5; 95% CI: 7.7­20.4) ethnicity, a prisoner at the time of diagnosis (OR: 20.2; 95% CI: 6.7­60.6), unemployed (OR: 4.1; 95% CI: 3.0­5.6), or a drug dealer or sex worker (OR: 187.1; 95% CI: 28.4­1,232.3). A total of 113 (39%) of cases used drugs and 54 (18%) were homeless. Completion of treatment gradually improved in cases from 55% among those diagnosed up to the end of 2002 compared with 65% by the end of 2006. Treatment completion increased from 79% to 83% in controls from 2000 to 2005. There are complex social challenges facing many cases in this outbreak that need to be addressed if medical interventions are to be successful.

A review of health care models for coronary heart disease interventions.

This article reviews models for the treatment of coronary heart disease (CHD). Whereas most of the models described were developed to assess the cost effectiveness of different treatment strategies, other models have also been used to extrapolate clinical trials, for capacity and resource planning, or to predict the future population with heart disease. In this paper we investigate the use of modelling techniques in relation to different types of health intervention, and we discuss the assumptions and limitations of these approaches. Many of the models reviewed in this paper use decision tree models for acute or short term interventions, and Markov or state transition models for chronic or long term interventions. Discrete event simulation has, however, been used for more complex whole system models, and for modelling resource-constrained interventions and operational planning. Nearly all of the studies in our review used cohort-based models rather than population based models, and therefore few models could estimate the likely total costs and benefits for a population group. Most studies used de novo purpose built models consisting of only a small number of health states. Models of the whole disease system were less common. The model descriptions were often incomplete. We recommend that the reporting of model structure, assumptions and input parameters is more explicit, to reduce the risk of biased reporting and ensure greater confidence in the model results.

Effect of withdrawal of fluoride-containing toothpaste on the interproximal plaque microflora.

To compare the effects of fluoride-containing and fluoride-free toothpaste on plaque microflora, 15 subjects were enrolled in a double-blind crossover trial. All subjects used a fluoride toothpaste for 7 days before the trial started. Then, 4 interproximal sites per subject were professionally cleaned and subjects used one of the toothpastes for 5 days. On the 5th day plaque was collected from 2 sites, 12 and 6 h after toothpaste use. There was no difference between the groups in the numbers or proportions of aciduric bacteria (recovered at pH 4.8 or 5.2), or of yeasts, neisseriae, lactobacilli or streptococci (total or individual species, including Streptococcus mutans). However, the numbers and proportions of Gram-positive pleomorphic rods, primarily Actinomyces naeslundii, increased in 6-hour samples from subjects using fluoride toothpaste. The data suggest that the anti-caries effect of fluoride toothpaste is not mediated primarily through effects on the plaque microflora, although effects on plaque physiology could be important.