EXITitis in the UK: Gravity Estimates in the Aftermath of Brexit.

The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union has had disruptive effects on international trade. As part of its 'Global Britain' strategy in the wake of Brexit, the UK is pursuing a series of Free Trade Agreements with countries around the world, including Canada, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey and possibly the United States. Closer to home, the UK is under mounting pressure to dissuade Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales from seeking independence to regain the severed ties with the EU. We analyze the economic consequences of these scenarios with a state-of-the-art structural gravity model for major economies around the world. We find that 'Global Britain' yields insufficient trade creation to compensate for Brexit-induced trade losses. Our results also reveal that secession from the UK in itself would inflict greater post-Brexit economic harm on the devolved nations of Great Britain. Nevertheless, these effects could be offset when secession from the UK is combined with regained EU membership.

Robots do not get the coronavirus: The COVID-19 pandemic and the international division of labor.

We assess the expected long-run consequences of the unfolding COVID-19 pandemic and use these as a platform to argue that international business (IB) as a field should expand its research agenda to study the international division of labor. The worldwide response to the COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating the shift toward the de-globalization of capital, but it will also speed up the move to a stronger globalization of labor. This paradoxical, simultaneous occurrence of de-globalization and globalization offers rich opportunities for future IB research.

Nous évaluons les conséquences à long terme attendues de l'actuelle pandémie de COVID-19, et les utilisons comme plate-forme pour argumenter qu'en tant que domaine, les affaires internationales (IB - International Business) doivent élargir leur programme de recherche afin d'étudier la division internationale du travail. La réponse à l'échelle mondiale à la pandémie de COVID-19 accélère non seulement le passage vers la dé-globalisation du capital, mais également celui vers une globalisation plus forte du travail. Cette genèse simultanée et paradoxale de la dé-globalisation et de la globalisation offre de riches opportunités pour de futures recherches en IB.

Evaluamos las consecuencias previstas al largo plazo de la pandemia del COVID-19 y usamos estas como una plataforma para argumentar que los negocios internacionales como un campo debería expandir su agenda de investigación a estudiar la división internacional del trabajo. La respuesta mundial de la pandemia del COVID-19 está acelerando la transición hacia la desglobalización de capital, pero también acelerará el traslado hacia una mayor globalización del trabajo. Este hecho paradójico y simultáneo de la globalización y la globalización ofrece grandes oportunidades para la investigación futura de negocios internacionales.

Avaliamos as consequências esperadas de longo prazo do desdobramento da pandemia COVID-19 e as usamos como plataforma para argumentar que negócios internacionais (IB) como um campo devem expandir sua agenda de pesquisa para estudar a divisão internacional do trabalho. A resposta mundial à pandemia COVID-19 está acelerando a mudança em direção à desglobalização do capital, mas também acelerará a mudança para uma globalização mais forte do trabalho. Esta ocorrência paradoxal e simultânea de desglobalização e globalização oferece ricas oportunidades para pesquisas futuras de IB.

The turn from just-in-time to just-in-case globalization in and after times of COVID-19: An essay on the risk re-appraisal of borders and buffers.

In this essay, we apply insights from International Economics and Economic Geography to examine how the current COVID-19 crisis may structurally change the international economy. Our key argument is that the current crisis will fundamentally change key economic actors' risk appetite, triggering a renewed risk assessment that will lead to the comeback of buffers and borders across industries. This partial return to regionalization will involve a form of de-globalization that transforms modern just-in-time management into its just-in-case counterpart, because resilience will be priced and discounted for by enterprises and governments alike. We discuss what such a structural change will imply for the International Business of international value chains.