[Epidemiological pattern of scarlet fever in recent years]. / Epidemiologicheskie zakonomernosti skarlatiny v poslednie gody.

During the period of 1953-2001 scarlet fever morbidity level fluctuated from 670.3 to 65.9 per 100,000 of the population in Moscow and from 531.9 to 35.0 per 100,000 of the population of the Russian Federation. In recent years an increased morbidity was more pronounced in Moscow than in the Russian Federation as a whole. Children formed the greater part of scarlet fever patients, the cases of scarlet fever among children in Moscow occurring more often than, on the average, in Russia. As before, annual morbidity among children attending children's institutions was higher 3- to 4-fold than among children brought up at home. This difference was most sharply pronounced among young children during the first two years of their life. In contrast to morbidity observed during previous 20-30 years, a drop in morbidity among children during the first two years of their life was registered, while morbidity level among children aged 3-6 years and 7-14 years increased. Scarlet fever morbidity had a pronounced seasonal (autumn-winter) pattern. In a group of children aged 3-5 years who attended organized groups, on the average, 78.6% of scarlet fever cases fell on seasonal morbidity, the most prolonged one.

[Methodological aspects of the evaluation of epidemiological safety in maternity hospitals]. / Metodicheskie aspekty otsenki épidemiologicheskogo blagopoluchiia v akusherskikh statsionarakh.

The distribution of morbidity and mortality in newborns, as well as morbidity of parturient women, in maternity hospitals of Moscow official have been analyzed according to statistical data for 1996-1999. The methods of cluster analysis (k-medium and tree classification by the method of the next door neighbours) were used. The evaluation of the stability of the distribution of morbidity and mortality in maternity hospitals was made with the use of chi 2 criterion. The specific features of the distribution of morbidity and mortality of newborns, as well as morbidity of parturient women, in the hospitals under study were detected. The methodological approach to the evaluation of epidemiological safety in maternity hospitals was proposed.

[Experience in using correlation analysis for evaluating the synchronism of the fluctuations in the level of infectious morbidity in individual areas]. / Opyt primeneniia korreliatsionnogo analiza dlia otsenki sinkhronnosti kolebanii urovnia infektsionnoi zabolevaemosti na otdel'nykh territoriiakh.

The possibility of using correlation analysis for evaluating the synchronism of changes in infectious morbidity rate on different territories was studied. The study demonstrated that the intensity of correlative relationships was mainly influenced by the degree of manifestation and the direction of prolonged tendencies in the changes of infectious morbidity on the territories under study. The presence of prolonged pronounced tendencies towards growth or decrease in the compared curves characterizing prolonged morbidity dynamics was found to limit the use of correlation analysis for the evaluation of synchronism of changes in morbidity rate.

[The manifestations of a scarlatina epidemic process in a large city and their interpretation]. / Proiavleniia épidemicheskogo protsessa skarlatiny v krupnom gorode i ikh interpretatsiia.

The average morbidity level in scarlet fever for the period of 1972-1990 in Moscow was 230.9 cases per 100,000 of the population and the annual economic damage was 2-2.5 million rubles. The highest morbidity rate values were registered among children attending children's institutions, and in this group among children aged 3-6 years. Cohort and disperse analysis revealed that age-dependent fluctuations of morbidity rate had a regular character and significantly differed. An increase in scarlet fever morbidity was registered simultaneously with elevated levels of morbidity in tonsillitis and acute respiratory diseases and occurred several weeks after a rise in tonsillitis morbidity. Contamination with group A streptococci was higher among "organized" children of preschool age than among other groups of the population. T serovars 4/28, 8/29/Imp.19, 3/13/B3254 and 1, constituting 44% of all isolated Streptococcus pyogenes strains, and OF type 2 (44%) and 22 (20%) occurred most frequently. Among the strains isolated from patients T-4 and OF-2 types prevailed.