Quantifying the impact of uncertainty on threat management for biodiversity.

With inadequate resources to manage the threats facing biodiversity worldwide, achieving projected management outcomes is critical for efficient resource allocation and species recovery. Despite this, conservation plans to mitigate threats rarely articulate the likelihood of management success. Here we develop a general value of information approach to quantify the impact of uncertainty on 20 threatening processes affecting 976 listed species and communities. To our knowledge, this is the most comprehensive quantification of the impacts of uncertainty on threat management. We discover that, on average, removing uncertainty about management effectiveness could triple the gain in persistence achieved by managing under current uncertainty. Management of fire, invasive animals and a plant pathogen are most impeded by uncertainty; management of invasive plants is least impacted. Our results emphasise the tremendous importance of reducing uncertainty about species responses to management, and show that failure to consider management effectiveness wastes resources and impedes species recovery.

A large-scale application of project prioritization to threatened species investment by a government agency.

In a global environment of increasing species extinctions and decreasing availability of funds with which to combat the causes of biodiversity loss, maximising the efficiency of conservation efforts is crucial. The only way to ensure maximum return on conservation investment is to incorporate the cost, benefit and likelihood of success of conservation actions into decision-making in a systematic and objective way. Here we report on the application of a Project Prioritization Protocol (PPP), first implemented by the New Zealand Government, to target and prioritize investment in threatened species in New South Wales, Australia, under the state's new Saving our Species program. Detailed management prescriptions for 368 threatened species were developed via an expert elicitation process, and were then prioritized using quantitative data on benefit, likelihood of success and implementation cost, and a simple cost-efficiency equation. We discuss the outcomes that have been realized even in the early stages of the program; including the efficient development of planning resources made available to all potential threatened species investors and the demonstration of a transparent and objective approach to threatened species management that will significantly increase the probability of meeting an objective to secure the greatest number of threatened species from extinction.

Spending limited resources on de-extinction could lead to net biodiversity loss.

There is contentious debate surrounding the merits of de-extinction as a biodiversity conservation tool. Here, we use extant analogues to predict conservation actions for potential de-extinction candidate species from New Zealand and the Australian state of New South Wales, and use a prioritization protocol to predict the impacts of reintroducing and maintaining populations of these species on conservation of extant threatened species. Even using the optimistic assumptions that resurrection of species is externally sponsored, and that actions for resurrected species can share costs with extant analogue species, public funding for conservation of resurrected species would lead to fewer extant species that could be conserved, suggesting net biodiversity loss. If full costs of establishment and maintenance for resurrected species populations were publicly funded, there could be substantial sacrifices in extant species conservation. If conservation of resurrected species populations could be fully externally sponsored, there could be benefits to extant threatened species. However, such benefits would be outweighed by opportunity costs, assuming such discretionary money could directly fund conservation of extant species. Potential sacrifices in conservation of extant species should be a crucial consideration in deciding whether to invest in de-extinction or focus our efforts on extant species.

Three Molecular Markers Show No Evidence of Population Genetic Structure in the Gouldian Finch (Erythrura gouldiae).

Assessment of genetic diversity and connectivity between regions can inform conservation managers about risk of inbreeding, potential for adaptation and where population boundaries lie. The Gouldian finch (Erythrura gouldiae) is a threatened species in northern Australia, occupying the savannah woodlands of the biogeographically complex monsoon tropics. We present the most comprehensive population genetic analysis of diversity and structure the Gouldian finch using 16 microsatellite markers, mitochondrial control region and 3,389 SNPs from genotyping-by-sequencing. Mitochondrial diversity is compared across three related, co-distributed finches with different conservation threat-statuses. There was no evidence of genetic differentiation across the western part of the range in any of the molecular markers, and haplotype diversity but not richness was lower than a common co-distributed species. Individuals within the panmictic population in the west may be highly dispersive within this wide area, and we urge caution when interpreting anecdotal observations of changes to the distribution and/or flock sizes of Gouldian finch populations as evidence of overall changes to the population size of this species.

Interference from long-tailed finches constrains reproduction in the endangered Gouldian finch.

1. Interspecific interference competition for nest-sites among cavity-nesting birds can have important effects on reproductive fitness and the distribution of competing species. 2. We observed interference at nest-sites in free-living populations of the endangered Gouldian finch (Erythrura gouldiae) and sympatric long-tailed finch (Poephila acuticauda), and also experimentally tested the relative strength and effect of interference at nest-sites in captive populations. 3. Levels of competitive interference at nest-sites in the wild were high for Gouldian, but not long-tailed finches, and interference frequency was inversely related to Gouldian finch reproductive success. High levels of interference conferred reduced fledging success but did not affect offspring condition. 4. Captive experiments corroborated the field data, also demonstrating fitness costs of interspecific competition, and that long-tailed finches dominated resources under standardized conditions. 5. Such asymmetrical competition dynamics are likely to constrain reproduction in Gouldian finch populations, potentially affecting recruitment and hindering the recovery of remaining populations of this endangered species.