Research to Confront Climate Change Complexity: Intersectionality, Integration, and Innovative Governance.

Climate impacts increasingly unfold in interlinked systems of people, nature, and infrastructure. The cascading consequences are revealing sometimes surprising connections across sectors and regions, and prospects for climate responses also depend on complex, difficult-to-understand interactions. In this commentary, we build on the innovations of the United States Fifth National Climate Assessment to suggest a framework for understanding and responding to complex climate challenges. This approach involves: (a) integration of disciplines and expertise to understand how intersectionality shapes complex climate impacts and the wide-ranging effects of climate responses, (b) collaborations among diverse knowledge holders to improve responses and better encompass intersectionality, and (c) sustained experimentation with and learning about governance approaches capable of handling the complexity of climate change. Together, these three pillars underscore that usability of climate-relevant knowledge requires transdisciplinary coordination of research and practice. We outline actionable steps for climate research to incorporate intersectionality, integration, and innovative governance, as is increasingly necessary for confronting climate complexity and sustaining equitable, ideally vibrant climate futures.

Thermal, water, and land cover factors led to contrasting urban and rural vegetation resilience to extreme hot months.

With continuing global warming and urbanization, it is increasingly important to understand the resilience of urban vegetation to extreme high temperatures, but few studies have examined urban vegetation at large scale or both concurrent and delayed responses. In this study, we performed an urban-rural comparison using the Enhanced Vegetation Index and months that exceed the historical 90th percentile in mean temperature (referred to as "hot months") across 85 major cities in the contiguous United States. We found that hot months initially enhanced vegetation greenness but could cause a decline afterwards, especially for persistent (≥4 months) and intense (≥+2 °C) episodes in summer. The urban responses were more positive than rural in the western United States or in winter, but more negative during spring-autumn in the eastern United States. The east-west difference can be attributed to the higher optimal growth temperatures and lower water stress levels of the western urban vegetation than the rural. The urban responses also had smaller magnitudes than the rural responses, especially in deciduous forest biomes, and least in evergreen forest biomes. Within each biome, analysis at 1 km pixel level showed that impervious fraction and vegetation cover, local urban heat island intensity, and water stress were the key drivers of urban-rural differences. These findings advance our understanding of how prolonged exposure to warm extremes, particularly within urban environments, affects vegetation greenness and vitality. Urban planners and ecosystem managers should prioritize the long and intense events and the key drivers in fostering urban vegetation resilience to heat waves.

A dataset of recorded electricity outages by United States county 2014-2022.

In this Data Descriptor, we present county-level electricity outage estimates at 15-minute intervals from 2014 to 2022. By 2022 92% of customers in the 50 US States, Washington DC, and Puerto Rico are represented. These data have been produced by the Environment for Analysis of Geo-Located Energy Information (EAGLE-ITM), a geographic information system and data visualization platform created at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to map the population experiencing electricity outages every 15 minutes at the county level. Although these data do not cover every US customer, they represent the most comprehensive outage information ever compiled for the United States. The rate of coverage increases through time between 2014 and 2022. We present a quantitative Data Quality Index for these data for the years 2018-2022 to demonstrate temporal changes in customer coverage rates by FEMA region and indicators of data collection gaps or other errors.

Unraveling complex causal processes that affect sustainability requires more integration between empirical and modeling approaches.

Scientists seek to understand the causal processes that generate sustainability problems and determine effective solutions. Yet, causal inquiry in nature-society systems is hampered by conceptual and methodological challenges that arise from nature-society interdependencies and the complex dynamics they create. Here, we demonstrate how sustainability scientists can address these challenges and make more robust causal claims through better integration between empirical analyses and process- or agent-based modeling. To illustrate how these different epistemological traditions can be integrated, we present four studies of air pollution regulation, natural resource management, and the spread of COVID-19. The studies show how integration can improve empirical estimates of causal effects, inform future research designs and data collection, enhance understanding of the complex dynamics that underlie observed temporal patterns, and elucidate causal mechanisms and the contexts in which they operate. These advances in causal understanding can help sustainability scientists develop better theories of phenomena where social and ecological processes are dynamically intertwined and prior causal knowledge and data are limited. The improved causal understanding also enhances governance by helping scientists and practitioners choose among potential interventions, decide when and how the timing of an intervention matters, and anticipate unexpected outcomes. Methodological integration, however, requires skills and efforts of all involved to learn how members of the respective other tradition think and analyze nature-society systems.

Integration of urban science and urban climate adaptation research: opportunities to advance climate action.

There is a growing recognition that responding to climate change necessitates urban adaptation. We sketch a transdisciplinary research effort, arguing that actionable research on urban adaptation needs to recognize the nature of cities as social networks embedded in physical space. Given the pace, scale and socioeconomic outcomes of urbanization in the Global South, the specificities and history of its cities must be central to the study of how well-known agglomeration effects can facilitate adaptation. The proposed effort calls for the co-creation of knowledge involving scientists and stakeholders, especially those historically excluded from the design and implementation of urban development policies.

Spatial and Temporal Characterization of Activity in Public Space, 2019-2020.

The data reported here characterize spatial and temporal variation in the ratio of short-to-long-duration visits in public places (i.e., points of interest) in the United States for each week between January 2019 and December 2020. The underlying data on anonymized and aggregated foot traffic to public places is curated by SafeGraph, a geospatial data provider. In this work, we report the estimated number and duration of "short" (i.e., <4 hours) and "long" (i.e., >4 hours) visits to public places at the US census block group level. Long visits are shown to be a good proxy for workers based on formal economic data. We propose that short visits are more likely to represent nonobligate activities: people visiting a public place for leisure, shopping, entertainment, or civic or cultural engagement. Our work constructs a ratio of short to long visits, which can be used to inform population estimates for nonworker use of public space. These data may be useful for understanding how people's use of public space has changed during the COVID-19 pandemic and, more generally, for understanding activity patterns in public.

Infrastructure inequality is a characteristic of urbanization.

Urbanization can challenge sustainable development if it produces unequal outcomes. Infrastructure is an important urbanization dimension, providing services to support diverse urban activities. However, it can lock in unequal outcomes due to its durable nature. This paper studies inequalities in infrastructure distributions to derive insights into the structure and characteristics of unequal outcomes associated with urbanization. We analyzed infrastructure inequalities in two emerging economies in the Global South: India and South Africa. We developed and applied an inequality measure to understand the structure of inequality in infrastructure provisioning (based on census data) and infrastructure availability (based on satellite nighttime lights [NTLs] data). Consistent with differences in economic inequality, results show greater inequalities in South Africa than in India and greater urban inequalities than rural inequalities. Nevertheless, inequalities in urban infrastructure provisioning and infrastructure availability increase from finer to coarser spatial scales. NTL-based inequality measurements additionally show that inequalities are more concentrated at coarse spatial scales in India than in South Africa. Finally, results show that urban inequalities in infrastructure provisioning covary with urbanization levels conceptualized as a multidimensional phenomenon, including demographic, economic, and infrastructural dimensions. Similarly, inequalities in urban infrastructure availability increase monotonically with infrastructure development levels and urban population size. Together, these findings underscore infrastructure inequalities as a feature of urbanization and suggest that understanding urban inequalities requires applying an inequality lens to urbanization.

Protoplast fusion in Bacillus species produces frequent, unbiased, genome-wide homologous recombination.

In eukaryotes, fine-scale maps of meiotic recombination events have greatly advanced our understanding of the factors that affect genomic variation patterns and evolution of traits. However, in bacteria that lack natural systems for sexual reproduction, unbiased characterization of recombination landscapes has remained challenging due to variable rates of genetic exchange and influence of natural selection. Here, to overcome these limitations and to gain a genome-wide view on recombination, we crossed Bacillus strains with different genetic distances using protoplast fusion. The offspring displayed complex inheritance patterns with one of the parents consistently contributing the major part of the chromosome backbone and multiple unselected fragments originating from the second parent. Our results demonstrate that this bias was in part due to the action of restriction-modification systems, whereas genome features like GC content and local nucleotide identity did not affect distribution of recombination events around the chromosome. Furthermore, we found that recombination occurred uniformly across the genome without concentration into hotspots. Notably, our results show that species-level genetic distance did not affect genome-wide recombination. This study provides a new insight into the dynamics of recombination in bacteria and a platform for studying recombination patterns in diverse bacterial species.

Defining pathways to healthy sustainable urban development.

Goals and pathways to achieve sustainable urban development have multiple interlinkages with human health and wellbeing. However, these interlinkages have not been examined in depth in recent discussions on urban sustainability and global urban science. This paper fills that gap by elaborating in detail the multiple links between urban sustainability and human health and by mapping research gaps at the interface of health and urban sustainability sciences. As researchers from a broad range of disciplines, we aimed to: 1) define the process of urbanization, highlighting distinctions from related concepts to support improved conceptual rigour in health research; 2) review the evidence linking health with urbanization, urbanicity, and cities and identify cross-cutting issues; and 3) highlight new research approaches needed to study complex urban systems and their links with health. This novel, comprehensive knowledge synthesis addresses issue of interest across multiple disciplines. Our review of concepts of urban development should be of particular value to researchers and practitioners in the health sciences, while our review of the links between urban environments and health should be of particular interest to those outside of public health. We identify specific actions to promote health through sustainable urban development that leaves no one behind, including: integrated planning; evidence-informed policy-making; and monitoring the implementation of policies. We also highlight the critical role of effective governance and equity-driven planning in progress towards sustainable, healthy, and just urban development.

Dynamics of beneficial epidemics.

Pathogens can spread epidemically through populations. Beneficial contagions, such as viruses that enhance host survival or technological innovations that improve quality of life, also have the potential to spread epidemically. How do the dynamics of beneficial biological and social epidemics differ from those of detrimental epidemics? We investigate this question using a breadth-first modeling approach involving three distinct theoretical models. First, in the context of population genetics, we show that a horizontally-transmissible element that increases fitness, such as viral DNA, spreads superexponentially through a population, more quickly than a beneficial mutation. Second, in the context of behavioral epidemiology, we show that infections that cause increased connectivity lead to superexponential fixation in the population. Third, in the context of dynamic social networks, we find that preferences for increased global infection accelerate spread and produce superexponential fixation, but preferences for local assortativity halt epidemics by disconnecting the infected from the susceptible. We conclude that the dynamics of beneficial biological and social epidemics are characterized by the rapid spread of beneficial elements, which is facilitated in biological systems by horizontal transmission and in social systems by active spreading behavior of infected individuals.

Toward cities without slums: Topology and the spatial evolution of neighborhoods.

The world is urbanizing quickly with nearly 4 billion people presently living in urban areas, about 1 billion of them in slums. Achieving sustainable development from rapid urbanization relies critically on creating cities without slums. We show that it is possible to diagnose systematically the central physical problem of slums-the lack of spatial accesses and related services-using a topological analysis of neighborhood maps and resolved by finding solutions to a sequence of constrained optimization problems. We set up the problem by showing that the built environment of any city can be decomposed into two types of networked spaces-accesses and places-and prove that these spaces display universal topological characteristics. We then show that while the neighborhoods of developed cities express the same common topology, urban slums fall into a different topological class. We demonstrate that it is always possible to find solutions that grow a street network in existing slums, providing universal accesses at minimal disruption and cost. We then show how elaborations of this procedure that include local preferences and reduce travel distances between places result from additional access construction. These methods are presently taking effect in neighborhoods in Cape Town (South Africa) and Mumbai (India), demonstrating their practical feasibility and emphasizing their role as a platform to enable communities and local governments to combine technical knowledge with local aspirations into contextually appropriate urban sustainable development solutions.

Heterogeneity and scale of sustainable development in cities.

Rapid worldwide urbanization is at once the main cause and, potentially, the main solution to global sustainable development challenges. The growth of cities is typically associated with increases in socioeconomic productivity, but it also creates strong inequalities. Despite a growing body of evidence characterizing these heterogeneities in developed urban areas, not much is known systematically about their most extreme forms in developing cities and their consequences for sustainability. Here, we characterize the general patterns of income and access to services in a large number of developing cities, with an emphasis on an extensive, high-resolution analysis of the urban areas of Brazil and South Africa. We use detailed census data to construct sustainable development indices in hundreds of thousands of neighborhoods and show that their statistics are scale-dependent and point to the critical role of large cities in creating higher average incomes and greater access to services within their national context. We then quantify the general statistical trajectory toward universal basic service provision at different scales to show that it is characterized by varying levels of inequality, with initial increases in access being typically accompanied by growing disparities over characteristic spatial scales. These results demonstrate how extensions of these methods to other goals and data can be used over time and space to produce a simple but general quantitative assessment of progress toward internationally agreed sustainable development goals.

Network structure and community evolution on Twitter: human behavior change in response to the 2011 Japanese earthquake and tsunami.

To investigate the dynamics of social networks and the formation and evolution of online communities in response to extreme events, we collected three datasets from Twitter shortly before and after the 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan. We find that while almost all users increased their online activity after the earthquake, Japanese speakers, who are assumed to be more directly affected by the event, expanded the network of people they interact with to a much higher degree than English speakers or the global average. By investigating the evolution of communities, we find that the behavior of joining or quitting a community is far from random: users tend to stay in their current status and are less likely to join new communities from solitary or shift to other communities from their current community. While non-Japanese speakers did not change their conversation topics significantly after the earthquake, nearly all Japanese users changed their conversations to earthquake-related content. This study builds a systematic framework for investigating human behaviors under extreme events with online social network data and our findings on the dynamics of networks and communities may provide useful insight for understanding how patterns of social interaction are influenced by extreme events.