Which factors affect the success or failure of eradication campaigns against alien species?

Although issues related to the management of invasive alien species are receiving increasing attention, little is known about which factors affect the likelihood of success of management measures. We applied two data mining techniques, classification trees and boosted trees, to identify factors that relate to the success of management campaigns aimed at eradicating invasive alien invertebrates, plants and plant pathogens. We assembled a dataset of 173 different eradication campaigns against 94 species worldwide, about a half of which (50.9%) were successful. Eradications in man-made habitats, greenhouses in particular, were more likely to succeed than those in (semi-)natural habitats. In man-made habitats the probability of success was generally high in Australasia, while in Europe and the Americas it was higher for local infestations that are easier to deal with, and for international campaigns that are likely to profit from cross-border cooperation. In (semi-) natural habitats, eradication campaigns were more likely to succeed for plants introduced as an ornamental and escaped from cultivation prior to invasion. Averaging out all other factors in boosted trees, pathogens, bacteria and viruses were most, and fungi the least likely to be eradicated; for plants and invertebrates the probability was intermediate. Our analysis indicates that initiating the campaign before the extent of infestation reaches the critical threshold, starting to eradicate within the first four years since the problem has been noticed, paying special attention to species introduced by the cultivation pathway, and applying sanitary measures can substantially increase the probability of eradication success. Our investigations also revealed that information on socioeconomic factors, which are often considered to be crucial for eradication success, is rarely available, and thus their relative importance cannot be evaluated. Future campaigns should carefully document socioeconomic factors to enable tests of their importance.

Understanding growers' decisions to manage invasive pathogens at the farm level.

Globalization causes plant production systems to be increasingly threatened by invasive pests and pathogens. Much research is devoted to support management of these risks. Yet, the role of growers' perceptions and behavior in risk management has remained insufficiently analyzed. This article aims to fill this gap by addressing risk management of invasive pathogens from a sociopsychological perspective. An analytical framework based on the Theory of Planned Behavior was used to explain growers' decisions on voluntary risk management measures. Survey information from 303 Dutch horticultural growers was statistically analyzed, including regression and cluster analysis. It appeared that growers were generally willing to apply risk management measures, and that poor risk management was mainly due to perceived barriers, such as high costs and doubts regarding efficacy of management measures. The management measures applied varied considerably among growers, depending on production sector and farm-specific circumstances. Growers' risk perception was found to play a role in their risk management, although the causal relation remained unclear. These results underscore the need to apply a holistic perspective to farm level management of invasive pathogen risk, considering the entire package of management measures and accounting for sector- and farm-specific circumstances. Moreover, they demonstrate that invasive pathogen risk management can benefit from a multidisciplinary approach that incorporates growers' perceptions and behavior.

Cost-effective control of a quarantine disease: a quantitative exploration using "design of experiments" methodology and bio-economic modeling.

ABSTRACT An integrated approach to control of quarantine diseases at the level of the plant production chain is complicated. The involved actors have different interests and the system is complex. Consequently, control policies may not be cost effective. By means of a bio-economic model for brown rot in the Dutch potato production chain, the efficacy of different control options was quantitatively analyzed. An impact analysis was performed using the methodology of "design of experiments" to quantify the effect of factors in interaction on incidence and costs of brown rot. Factors can be grouped as policy, sector, economic, and exogenous factors. Results show that brown rot incidence and economic consequences are determined predominantly by policy and sector factors and, to a lesser extent, by economic and exogenous factors. Scenario studies were performed to elucidate how the government and sector can optimize the cost-effectiveness of brown rot control. Optimal cost-effectiveness of control requires cooperation of the sector and government, in which case brown rot incidence can be reduced by 75% and the costs of control can be reduced by at least 2 million euros per year. This study demonstrates quantitatively the potential contribution of an integrated approach to cost-effective disease control at chain level.