The evolution of climate over the last millennium.

Knowledge of past climate variability is crucial for understanding and modeling current and future climate trends. This article reviews present knowledge of changes in temperatures and two major circulation features-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-over much of the last 1000 years, mainly on the basis of high-resolution paleoclimate records. Average temperatures during the last three decades were likely the warmest of the last millennium, about 0.2 degrees C warmer than during warm periods in the 11th and 12th centuries. The 20th century experienced the strongest warming trend of the millennium (about 0.6 degrees C per century). Some recent changes in ENSO may have been unique since 1800, whereas the recent trend to more positive NAO values may have occurred several times since 1500. Uncertainties will only be reduced through more extensive spatial sampling of diverse proxy climatic records.

Climate variability 50,000 years ago in mid-latitude Chile as reconstructed from tree rings.

High-resolution proxies of past climate are essential for a better understanding of the climate system. Tree rings are routinely used to reconstruct Holocene climate variations at high temporal resolution, but only rarely have they offered insight into climate variability during earlier periods. Fitzroya cupressoides-a South American conifer which attains ages up to 3,600 years-has been shown to record summer temperatures in northern Patagonia during the past few millennia. Here we report a floating 1,229-year chronology developed from subfossil stumps of F. cupressoides in southern Chile that dates back to approximately 50,000 14C years before present. We use this chronology to calculate the spectral characteristics of climate variability in this time, which was probably an interstadial (relatively warm) period. Growth oscillations at periods of 150-250, 87-94, 45.5, 24.1, 17.8, 9.3 and 2.7-5.3 years are identified in the annual subfossil record. A comparison with the power spectra of chronologies derived from living F. cupressoides trees shows strong similarities with the 50,000-year-old chronology, indicating that similar growth forcing factors operated in this glacial interstadial phase as in the current interglacial conditions.