Assessment of alendronate and dietary treatment in the management of feline idiopathic ionised hypercalcaemia and ionised hypercalcaemia associated with chronic kidney disease: 29 cases (2016-2022).

OBJECTIVES: This retrospective cohort multicentre study aimed to characterise the signalment, clinicopathologic data, complications and the association between treatment and outcome (the reduction in ionised calcium concentration) in cats with idiopathic or chronic kidney disease-associated ionised hypercalcaemia managed with alendronate and standard treatment or standard treatment alone, and to compare the outcome between the two groups. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Medical records for cats diagnosed with idiopathic or chronic kidney disease-associated ionised hypercalcaemia were retrospectively reviewed. Cats treated with alendronate and standard treatment were assigned to the alendronate group and cats treated with standard treatment alone were assigned to the control group. The standard treatment was defined as dietary modification and/or monitoring of ionised calcium concentrations and management of complications secondary to hypercalcaemia. The follow-up period was selected as 6 months. RESULTS: Twenty-nine cats were enrolled in the study. Nine cats were included in the control group and 20 cats in the alendronate group. A significant reduction in serum ionised calcium was observed in both groups between the baseline and the follow-up visit; however, this reduction did not differ significantly between both groups (the mean change in the ionised calcium concentration in alendronate and control group was -0.18 and -0.17, respectively). Suspected bisphosphate-related osteonecrosis of the jaw was reported in one cat receiving alendronate. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE: In this study, similar reduction in serum ionised calcium concentration was observed in cats with ionised hypercalcaemia treated with diet alone and in cats treated with diet and alendronate. These results should be interpreted with caution, as the study was underpowered for meaningful statistical comparison. Cats receiving alendronate should be monitored for the development of adverse reactions, including osteonecrosis of the jaw.

Predictors and moderators of the response of adults with intellectual disabilities and depression to behavioural activation and guided self-help therapies.

BACKGROUND: No previous studies have reported predictors and moderators of outcome of psychological therapies for depression experienced by adults with intellectual disabilities (IDs). We investigated baseline variables as outcome predictors and moderators based on a randomised controlled trial where behavioural activation was compared with guided self-help. METHODS: This study was an exploratory secondary data analysis of data collected during a randomised clinical trial. Participants (n = 161) were randomised to behavioural activation or guided self-help and followed up for 12 months. Pre-treatment variables were included if they have previously been shown to be associated with an increased risk of having depression in adults with IDs or have been reported as a potential predictor or moderator of outcome of treatment for depression with psychological therapies. The primary outcome measure, the Glasgow Depression Scale for Adults with Learning Disabilities (GDS-LD), was used as the dependant variable in mixed effects regression analyses testing for predictors and moderators of outcome, with baseline GDS-LD, treatment group, study centre and antidepressant use as fixed effects, and therapist as a random effect. RESULTS: Higher baseline anxiety (mean difference in outcome associated with a 1 point increase in anxiety 0.164, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.031, 0.297; P = 0.016), lower performance intelligence quotient (IQ) (mean difference in outcome associated with a 1 point increase in IQ 0.145, 95% CI 0.009, 0.280; P = 0.037) and hearing impairment (mean difference 3.449, 95% CI 0.466, 6.432; P = 0.024) were predictors of poorer outcomes, whilst greater severity of depressive symptoms at baseline (mean difference in outcome associated with 1 point increase in depression -0.160, 95% CI -0.806, -0.414; P < 0.001), higher expectation of change (mean difference in outcome associated with a 1 point increase in expectation of change -1.013, 95% CI -1.711, -0.314; p 0.005) and greater percentage of therapy sessions attended (mean difference in outcome with 1 point increase in percentage of sessions attended -0.058, 95% CI -0.099, -0.016; P = 0.007) were predictors of more positive outcomes for treatment after adjusting for randomised group allocation. The final model included severity of depressive and anxiety symptoms, lower WASI performance IQ subscale, hearing impairment, higher expectation of change and percentage of therapy sessions attended and explained 35.3% of the variance in the total GDS-LD score at 12 months (R2  = 0.353, F4, 128  = 17.24, P < 0.001). There is no evidence that baseline variables had a moderating effect on outcome for treatment with behavioural activation or guided self-help. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that baseline variables may be useful predictors of outcomes of psychological therapies for adults with IDs. Further research is required to examine the value of these potential predictors. However, our findings suggest that therapists consider how baseline variables may enable them to tailor their therapeutic approach when using psychological therapies to treat depression experienced by adults with IDs.

Use of Advanced Flexible Modeling Approaches for Survival Extrapolation from Early Follow-up Data in two Nivolumab Trials in Advanced NSCLC with Extended Follow-up.

OBJECTIVES: Immuno-oncology (IO) therapies are often associated with delayed responses that are deep and durable, manifesting as long-term survival benefits in patients with metastatic cancer. Complex hazard functions arising from IO treatments may limit the accuracy of extrapolations from standard parametric models (SPMs). We evaluated the ability of flexible parametric models (FPMs) to improve survival extrapolations using data from 2 trials involving patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). METHODS: Our analyses used consecutive database locks (DBLs) at 2-, 3-, and 5-y minimum follow-up from trials evaluating nivolumab versus docetaxel in patients with pretreated metastatic squamous (CheckMate-017) and nonsquamous (CheckMate-057) NSCLC. For each DBL, SPMs, as well as 3 FPMs-landmark response models (LRMs), mixture cure models (MCMs), and Bayesian multiparameter evidence synthesis (B-MPES)-were estimated on nivolumab overall survival (OS). The performance of each parametric model was assessed by comparing milestone restricted mean survival times (RMSTs) and survival probabilities with results obtained from externally validated SPMs. RESULTS: For the 2- and 3-y DBLs of both trials, all models tended to underestimate 5-y OS. Predictions from nonvalidated SPMs fitted to the 2-y DBLs were highly unreliable, whereas extrapolations from FPMs were much more consistent between models fitted to successive DBLs. For CheckMate-017, in which an apparent survival plateau emerges in the 3-y DBL, MCMs fitted to this DBL estimated 5-y OS most accurately (11.6% v. 12.3% observed), and long-term predictions were similar to those from the 5-y validated SPM (20-y RMST: 30.2 v. 30.5 mo). For CheckMate-057, where there is no clear evidence of a survival plateau in the early DBLs, only B-MPES was able to accurately predict 5-y OS (14.1% v. 14.0% observed [3-y DBL]). CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate that the use of FPMs for modeling OS in NSCLC patients from early follow-up data can yield accurate estimates for RMST observed with longer follow-up and provide similar long-term extrapolations to externally validated SPMs based on later data cuts. B-MPES generated reasonable predictions even when fitted to the 2-y DBLs of the studies, whereas MCMs were more reliant on longer-term data to estimate a plateau and therefore performed better from 3 y. Generally, LRM extrapolations were less reliable than those from alternative FPMs and validated SPMs but remained superior to nonvalidated SPMs. Our work demonstrates the potential benefits of using advanced parametric models that incorporate external data sources, such as B-MPES and MCMs, to allow for accurate evaluation of treatment clinical and cost-effectiveness from trial data with limited follow-up. HIGHLIGHTS: Flexible advanced parametric modeling methods can provide improved survival extrapolations for immuno-oncology cost-effectiveness in health technology assessments from early clinical trial data that better anticipate extended follow-up.Advantages include leveraging additional observable trial data, the systematic integration of external data, and more detailed modeling of underlying processes.Bayesian multiparameter evidence synthesis performed particularly well, with well-matched external data.Mixture cure models also performed well but may require relatively longer follow-up to identify an emergent plateau, depending on the specific setting.Landmark response models offered marginal benefits in this scenario and may require greater numbers in each response group and/or increased follow-up to support improved extrapolation within each subgroup.

Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards 2022 (CHEERS 2022) statement: updated reporting guidance for health economic evaluations.

Health economic evaluations are comparative analyses of alternative courses of action in terms of their costs and consequences. The Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) statement, published in 2013, was created to ensure health economic evaluations are identifiable, interpretable, and useful for decision making. It was intended as guidance to help authors report accurately which health interventions were being compared and in what context, how the evaluation was undertaken, what the findings were, and other details that may aid readers and reviewers in interpretation and use of the study. The new CHEERS 2022 statement replaces previous CHEERS reporting guidance. It reflects the need for guidance that can be more easily applied to all types of health economic evaluation, new methods and developments in the field, as well as the increased role of stakeholder involvement including patients and the public. It is also broadly applicable to any form of intervention intended to improve the health of individuals or the population, whether simple or complex, and without regard to context (such as health care, public health, education, social care, etc). This summary article presents the new CHEERS 2022 28-item checklist and recommendations for each item. The CHEERS 2022 statement is primarily intended for researchers reporting economic evaluations for peer reviewed journals as well as the peer reviewers and editors assessing them for publication. However, we anticipate familiarity with reporting requirements will be useful for analysts when planning studies. It may also be useful for health technology assessment bodies seeking guidance on reporting, as there is an increasing emphasis on transparency in decision making.

Stratified medicine using invasive coronary function testing in angina: A cost-effectiveness analysis of the British Heart Foundation CorMicA trial.

AIM: Coronary angiography is indicated in many patients with known or suspected angina for the investigation of coronary artery disease (CAD). However, up to half of patients with symptoms of ischaemia have no obstructive coronary arteries (INOCA). This large subgroup includes patients with suspected microvascular angina (MVA) and/or vasospastic angina (VSA). Clinical guidelines relating to the management of patients with INOCA are limited. Uncertainty regarding the diagnosis of patients with INOCA presents a health economic challenge, both in terms of healthcare resource utilisation and of quality-of-life impact on patients. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis of the introduction of stratified medicine into the invasive management of INOCA, based on clinical and resource-use data obtained in the CorMicA trial, from a UK NHS perspective. The intervention included an invasive diagnostic procedure (IDP) of coronary vascular function during coronary angiography to define clinical endotypes to target with linked medical therapy. Outcomes of interest were mean total cost and QALY gain between treatment groups, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. We undertook probabilistic sensitivity and scenario analyses. RESULTS: The incremental cost per QALY gained at 12 months was £4500 (£2937, £33264). Compared with a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of £20,000 per QALY, the use of the IDP test is cost-effective. At this WTP threshold there is a 96% probability of the IDP being cost-effective, based on the uncertainty described by bootstrap analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of INOCA, particularly in women, is known to be significant. These findings provided new evidence to inform this unmet clinical need.

Development of a core capability framework for qualified health professionals to optimise care for people with osteoarthritis: an OARSI initiative.

OBJECTIVE: Develop a generic trans-disciplinary, skills-based capability framework for health professionals providing care for people with OA. DESIGN: e-Delphi survey. An international inter-professional Delphi Panel (researchers; clinicians; consumer representatives) considered a draft framework (adapted from elsewhere) of 131 specific capabilities mapped to 14 broader capability areas across four domains (A: person-centred approaches; B: assessment, investigation and diagnosis; C: management, interventions and prevention; D: service and professional development). Over three rounds, the Panel rated their agreement (Likert or numerical rating scales) on whether each specific capability in Domains B and C was essential (core) for all health professionals when providing care for all people with OA. Those achieving consensus (≥80% of Panel) rating of ≥ seven out of ten (Round 3) were retained. Generic domains (A and D) were included in the final framework and amended based on Panel comments. RESULTS: 173 people from 31 countries, spanning 18 disciplines and including 26 consumer representatives, participated. The final framework comprised 70 specific capabilities across 13 broad areas i) communication; ii) person-centred care; iii) history-taking; iv) physical assessment; v) investigations and diagnosis; vi) interventions and care planning; vii) prevention and lifestyle interventions; viii) self-management and behaviour change; ix) rehabilitative interventions; x) pharmacotherapy; xi) surgical interventions; xii) referrals and collaborative working; and xiii) evidence-based practice and service development). CONCLUSION: Experts agree that health professionals require an array of skills in person-centred approaches; assessment, investigation and diagnosis; management, interventions and prevention; and service and professional development to provide optimal care for people with OA.

Type 2 diabetes remission: economic evaluation of the DiRECT/Counterweight-Plus weight management programme within a primary care randomized controlled trial.

AIM: The Counterweight-Plus weight management programme achieved 46% remission of Type 2 diabetes at 1 year in the DiRECT trial. We estimated the implementation costs of the Counterweight-Plus programme and its 1-year cost-effectiveness in terms of diabetes remission, compared with usual care, from the UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective. METHODS: Within-trial total costs included programme set-up and running costs (practitioner appointment visits, low-energy formula diet sachets and training), oral anti-diabetes and anti-hypertensive medications, and healthcare contacts. Total costs were calculated for aggregated resource use for each participant and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were based on 1000 non-parametric bootstrap iterations. RESULTS: One-year programme costs under trial conditions were estimated at £1137 per participant (95% CI £1071, £1205). The intervention led to a significant cost-saving of £120 (95% CI £78, £163) for the oral anti-diabetes drugs and £14 (95% CI £7.9, £22) for anti-hypertensive medications compared with the control. Deducting the cost-savings of all healthcare contacts from the intervention cost resulted an incremental cost of £982 (95% CI £732, £1258). Cost per 1 year of diabetes remission was £2359 (95% CI £1668, £3250). CONCLUSIONS: Remission of Type 2 diabetes within 1-year can be achieved at a cost below the annual cost of diabetes (including complications). Providing a reasonable proportion of remissions can be maintained over time, with multiple medical gains expected, as well as immediate social benefits, there is a case for shifting resources within diabetes care budgets to offer support for people with Type 2 diabetes to attempt remission. (Clinical Trial Registry No.: ISRCTN03267836).

Health professionals and students encounter multi-level barriers to implementing high-value osteoarthritis care: a multi-national study.

OBJECTIVE: Consistent evidence-practice gaps in osteoarthritis (OA) care are observed in primary care settings globally. Building workforce capacity to deliver high-value care requires a contemporary understanding of barriers to care delivery. We aimed to explore barriers to OA care delivery among clinicians and students. DESIGN: A cross-sectional, multinational study sampling clinicians (physiotherapists, primary care nurses, general practitioners (GPs), GP registrars; total possible denominator: n = 119,735) and final-year physiotherapy and medical students (denominator: n = 2,215) across Australia, New Zealand and Canada. Respondents answered a survey, aligned to contemporary implementation science domains, which measured barriers to OA care using categorical and free-text responses. RESULTS: 1886 clinicians and 1611 students responded. Items within the domains 'health system' and 'patient-related factors' represented the most applicable barriers experienced by clinicians (25-42% and 20-36%, respectively), whereas for students, 'knowledge and skills' and 'patient-related factors' (16-24% and 19-28%, respectively) were the most applicable domains. Meta-synthesis of qualitative data highlighted skills gaps in specific components of OA care (tailoring exercise, nutritional/overweight management and supporting positive behaviour change); assessment, measurement and monitoring; tailoring care; managing case complexity; and translating knowledge to practice (especially among students). Other barriers included general infrastructure limitations (particularly related to community facilities); patient-related factors (e.g., beliefs and compliance); workforce-related factors such as inconsistent care and a general knowledge gap in high-value care; and system and service-level factors relating to financing and time pressures, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians and students encounter barriers to delivery of high-value OA care in clinical practice/training (micro-level); within service environments (meso-level); and within the health system (macro-level).

Correction to: Effectiveness of a new model of primary care management on knee pain and function in patients with knee osteoarthritis: Protocol for THE PARTNER STUDY.

After the publication of this protocol [1], our collaborator Prima Health solutions advised us of their intent to withdraw from the study.

Use of The Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health survey module for estimating the population prevalence of musculoskeletal pain: findings from the Solomon Islands.

BACKGROUND: Musculoskeletal (MSK) conditions are common and the biggest global cause of physical disability. The objective of the current study was to estimate the population prevalence of MSK-related pain using a standardized global MSK survey module for the first time. METHODS: A MSK survey module was constructed by the Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health Surveillance Taskforce and the Global Burden of Disease MSK Expert Group. The MSK module was included in the 2015 Solomon Islands Demographic and Health Survey. The sampling design was a two-stage stratified, nationally representative sample of households. RESULTS: A total of 9214 participants aged 15-49 years were included in the analysis. The age-standardized four-week prevalence of activity-limiting low back pain, neck pain, and hip and/or knee pain was 16.8, 8.9, and 10.8%, respectively. Prevalence tended to increase with age, and be higher in those with lower levels of education. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence of activity-limited pain was high in all measured MSK sites. This indicates an important public health issue for the Solomon Islands that needs to be addressed. Efforts should be underpinned by integration with strategies for other non-communicable diseases, aging, disability, and rehabilitation, and with other sectors such as social services, education, industry, and agriculture. Primary prevention strategies and strategies aimed at self-management are likely to have the greatest and most cost-effective impact.

Implementation of the Western Australian Osteoporosis Model of Care: a fracture liaison service utilising emergency department information systems to identify patients with fragility fracture to improve current practice and reduce re-fracture rates: a 12-month analysis.

Fracture liaison service linked to an emergency department database effectively identifies patients with OP, improves best practice care, reduces recurrent fractures, and improves quality of life (QoL). The next step is to establish cost-effectiveness. This should be seen as the standard model of care. INTRODUCTION: The Western Australian Osteoporosis Model of Care recommends implementation of a fracture liaison service (FLS) to manage patients with minimal trauma fractures (MTFs). This study evaluates the efficacy of a FLS linked to a tertiary hospital emergency department information system (EDIS) in reducing recurrent fractures. METHODS: Patients aged ≥ 50 years with MTF identified from EDIS were invited to the FLS. Patient outcomes were compared to routine care (retrospective group-same hospital, and prospective group-other hospital) at 3- and 12-month follow-up. RESULTS: Two hundred forty-one of 376 (64.1%) eligible patients participated in the FLS with 12 months of follow-up. Absolute risk of recurrent MTF at 12 months was reduced by 9.2 and 10.2% compared with the prospective and retrospective controls, respectively. After age/sex adjustment, FLS participants had less MTF at 12 months vs. the retrospective controls, OR 0.38 (95%CI 0.18-0.79), but not the prospective controls, OR 0.40 (95%CI 0.16-1.01). FLS patients were more likely to receive the 'best practice' care, i.e. awareness of osteoporosis, investigations, and treatment (all p < 0.05). 'Fallers' (OR 0.48 (95%CI 0.24, 0.96)) and fall rates were lower in the FLS (p = 0.001) compared to the prospective control. FLS experienced the largest improvement in QoL from 3 to 12 months as measured by the EuroQoL 5-domain (EQ-5D) UK weighted score (+ 15 vs. - 11 vs. - 16%, p < 0.001) and EQ-5D Health State visual analogue scale (+ 29 vs. - 2 vs. + 1%, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Patients managed in a linked EDIS-FLS were more likely to receive the 'best practice' care and had lower recurrent MTF and improved QoL.

Systematic scoping review of patients' perceived needs of health services for osteoporosis.

Health service planners, administrators and providers need to understand the patients' perspective of health services related to osteoporosis to optimise health outcomes. The aims of this study were to systematically identify and review the literature regarding patients' perceived health service needs relating to osteoporosis and osteopenia. A systematic scoping review was performed of publications in MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and PsycINFO (1990-2016). Descriptive data regarding study design and methodology were extracted and risk of bias assessed. Aggregates of patients' perceived needs of osteoporosis health services were categorised. Thirty-three studies (19 quantitative and 14 qualitative) from 1027 were relevant. The following areas of perceived need emerged: (1) patients sought healthcare from doctors to obtain information and initiate management. They were dissatisfied with poor communication, lack of time and poor continuity of care. (2) Patients perceived a role for osteoporosis pharmacotherapy but were concerned about medication administration and adverse effects. (3) Patients believed that exercise and vitamin supplementation were important, but there is a lack of data examining the needs for other non-pharmacological measures such as smoking cessation and alcohol. (4) Patients wanted diagnostic evaluation and ongoing surveillance of their bone health. This review identified patients' needs for better communication with their healthcare providers. It also showed that a number of important cornerstones of therapy for osteoporosis, such as pharmacotherapy and exercise, are identified as important by patients, as well as ongoing surveillance of bone health. Understanding patients' perceived needs and aligning them with responsive and evidence-informed service models are likely to optimise patient outcomes.

Patients' perceived health service needs for osteoarthritis (OA) care: a scoping systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To identify and synthesise evidence regarding patients' perceived health service needs related to osteoarthritis (OA). DESIGN: A comprehensive systematic scoping review of MEDLINE, PsycINFO, EMBASE and CINAHL (1990-2016) was performed to capture information regarding patient perceived health service needs related to OA. Risk of bias and quality of included articles were assessed. Relevant data were extracted and collated to provide a systematic review of the existing literature. RESULTS: Of the 1384 identified manuscripts, 21 were relevant to areas of patient perceived need, including needs related to medical care, pharmacologic therapy, physiotherapy and exercise therapy and alternative medicine. Key findings included (1) Symptom control drove the need for both conventional and complementary services. (2) An individualized relationship was sought with a practitioner knowledgeable in OA care and who adopted a holistic approach, whether providing conventional or alternative therapies. (3) Medications were required to obtain symptomatic relief, with use tempered by recognition of potential side effects and financial cost. (4) The need for allied health services was recognised, although patient and system issues were barriers to uptake. (5) Patient's attitudes towards joint replacement, orthoses and physical aids were influenced by patient preferences and previous healthcare experiences. CONCLUSION: Patient perceived needs are similar to those suggested by clinical guideline recommendations. Better aligning patient perceived needs with healthcare requirements may improve OA outcomes and optimise healthcare system utilisation.

A cardiovascular disease policy model: part 2-preparing for economic evaluation and to assess health inequalities.

OBJECTIVES: This is the second of the two papers introducing a cardiovascular disease (CVD) policy model. The first paper described the structure and statistical underpinning of the state-transition model, demonstrating how life expectancy estimates are generated for individuals defined by ASSIGN risk factors. This second paper describes how the model is prepared to undertake economic evaluation. DESIGN: To generate quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE), the Scottish Health Survey was used to estimate background morbidity (health utilities) and the impact of CVD events (utility decrements). The SF-6D algorithm generated utilities and decrements were modelled using ordinary least squares (OLS). To generate lifetime hospital costs, the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort (SHHEC) was linked to the Scottish morbidity and death records (SMR) to cost each continuous inpatient stay (CIS). OLS and restricted cubic splines estimated annual costs before and after each of the first four events. A Kaplan-Meier sample average (KMSA) estimator was then used to weight expected health-related quality of life and costs by the probability of survival. RESULTS: The policy model predicts the change in QALE and lifetime hospital costs as a result of an intervention(s) modifying risk factors. Cost-effectiveness analysis and a full uncertainty analysis can be undertaken, including probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Notably, the impacts according to socioeconomic deprivation status can be made. CONCLUSIONS: The policy model can conduct cost-effectiveness analysis and decision analysis to inform approaches to primary prevention, including individually targeted and population interventions, and to assess impacts on health inequalities.

Modelling Comparative Efficacy of Drugs with Different Survival Profiles: Ipilimumab, Vemurafenib and Dacarbazine in Advanced Melanoma.

BACKGROUND: In the absence of head-to-head data, a common method for modelling comparative survival for cost-effectiveness analysis is estimating hazard ratios from trial publications. This assumes that the hazards of mortality are proportional between treatments and that outcomes are not polluted by subsequent therapy use. Newer techniques that compare treatments where the proportional hazards assumption is violated and adjust for use of subsequent therapies often require patient-level data, which are rarely available for all treatments. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to provide a comparison of overall survival data for ipilimumab, vemurafenib and dacarbazine using data from three trials lacking a common comparator arm and confounded by the use of subsequent treatment. METHODS: We compared three estimated overall survival curves for vemurafenib and the difference compared to ipilimumab and dacarbazine. We performed a naïve comparison and adjusted it for heterogeneity between the ipilimumab and vemurafenib trials, including differences in prognostic characteristics and subsequent therapy using a published hazard function for the impact of prognostic characteristics in melanoma and trial data on the impact of second-line use of ipilimumab. RESULTS: The mean incremental life-years gained for patients receiving ipilimumab compared with vemurafenib were 0.34 (95 % confidence interval [CI] -0.24 to 0.84) using the naïve comparison and 0.51 (95 % CI -0.08 to 0.99) using the covariate-adjusted survival curve. CONCLUSIONS: The analyses estimated the comparative efficacy of ipilimumab and vemurafenib in the absence of head-to-head patient-level data for all trials and proportional hazards in overall survival.

A cardiovascular disease policy model that predicts life expectancy taking into account socioeconomic deprivation.

OBJECTIVES: A policy model is a model that can evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions and inform policy decisions. In this study, we introduce a cardiovascular disease (CVD) policy model which can be used to model remaining life expectancy including a measure of socioeconomic deprivation as an independent risk factor for CVD. DESIGN: A state transition model was developed using the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort (SHHEC) linked to Scottish morbidity and death records. Individuals start in a CVD-free state and can transit to three CVD event states plus a non-CVD death state. Individuals who have a non-fatal first event are then followed up until death. Taking a competing risk approach, the cause-specific hazards of a first event are modelled using parametric survival analysis. Survival following a first non-fatal event is also modelled parametrically. We assessed discrimination, validation and calibration of our model. RESULTS: Our model achieved a good level of discrimination in each component (c-statistics for men (women)-non-fatal coronary heart disease (CHD): 0.70 (0.74), non-fatal cerebrovascular disease (CBVD): 0.73 (0.76), fatal CVD: 0.77 (0.80), fatal non-CVD: 0.74 (0.72), survival after non-fatal CHD: 0.68 (0.67) and survival after non-fatal CBVD: 0.65 (0.66)). In general, our model predictions were comparable with observed event rates for a Scottish randomised statin trial population which has an overlapping follow-up period with SHHEC. After applying a calibration factor, our predictions of life expectancy closely match those published in recent national life tables. CONCLUSIONS: Our model can be used to estimate the impact of primary prevention interventions on life expectancy and can assess the impact of interventions on inequalities.

Development and validation of a cost-utility model for Type 1 diabetes mellitus.

AIMS: To develop a health economic model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of new interventions for Type 1 diabetes mellitus by their effects on long-term complications (measured through mean HbA1c ) while capturing the impact of treatment on hypoglycaemic events. METHODS: Through a systematic review, we identified complications associated with Type 1 diabetes mellitus and data describing the long-term incidence of these complications. An individual patient simulation model was developed and included the following complications: cardiovascular disease, peripheral neuropathy, microalbuminuria, end-stage renal disease, proliferative retinopathy, ketoacidosis, cataract, hypoglycemia and adverse birth outcomes. Risk equations were developed from published cumulative incidence data and hazard ratios for the effect of HbA1c , age and duration of diabetes. We validated the model by comparing model predictions with observed outcomes from studies used to build the model (internal validation) and from other published data (external validation). We performed illustrative analyses for typical patient cohorts and a hypothetical intervention. RESULTS: Model predictions were within 2% of expected values in the internal validation and within 8% of observed values in the external validation (percentages represent absolute differences in the cumulative incidence). CONCLUSIONS: The model utilized high-quality, recent data specific to people with Type 1 diabetes mellitus. In the model validation, results deviated less than 8% from expected values.

Integrated care pathways for airway diseases (AIRWAYS-ICPs).

The objective of Integrated Care Pathways for Airway Diseases (AIRWAYS-ICPs) is to launch a collaboration to develop multi-sectoral care pathways for chronic respiratory diseases in European countries and regions. AIRWAYS-ICPs has strategic relevance to the European Union Health Strategy and will add value to existing public health knowledge by: 1) proposing a common framework of care pathways for chronic respiratory diseases, which will facilitate comparability and trans-national initiatives; 2) informing cost-effective policy development, strengthening in particular those on smoking and environmental exposure; 3) aiding risk stratification in chronic disease patients, using a common strategy; 4) having a significant impact on the health of citizens in the short term (reduction of morbidity, improvement of education in children and of work in adults) and in the long-term (healthy ageing); 5) proposing a common simulation tool to assist physicians; and 6) ultimately reducing the healthcare burden (emergency visits, avoidable hospitalisations, disability and costs) while improving quality of life. In the longer term, the incidence of disease may be reduced by innovative prevention strategies. AIRWAYSICPs was initiated by Area 5 of the Action Plan B3 of the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing. All stakeholders are involved (health and social care, patients, and policy makers).

Approaches to the detection of very small, common, and easily missed outbreaks that together contribute substantially to human Cryptosporidium infection.

Water supply-associated cryptosporidiosis outbreaks have decreased in England since the application of risk reduction measures to public water supplies. We hypothesized that smaller outbreaks were occurring which could be better detected by enhanced surveillance. Rolling analysis of detailed questionnaire data was applied prospectively in a population of 2·2 million in the south of England in 2009 and 2010. Detection of spatiotemporal clusters using SaTScan was later undertaken retrospectively. Together these approaches identified eight outbreaks, compared to an expectation of less than one based on national surveillance data. These outbreaks were small and associated with swimming pool use or, less commonly, direct (e.g. petting-farm) contact with animals. These findings suggest that frequent small-scale transmission in swimming pools is an important contributor to disease burden. Identification of swimming pool-level risk factors may inform preventative measures. These findings and the approaches described may be applicable to many other populations and to some other diseases.

Gender differences in the relationships between lean body mass, fat mass and peak bone mass in young adults.

UNLABELLED: The relationships between fat mass and bone mass in young adults are unclear. In 1,183 young Australians, lean body mass had a strong positive relationship with total body bone mass in both genders. Fat mass was a positive predictor of total body bone mass in females, with weaker association in males. INTRODUCTION: Body weight and lean body mass are established as major determinants of bone mass, but the relationships between fat mass (including visceral fat) and peak bone mass in young adults are unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate the associations between bone mass in young adults and three body composition measurements: lean body mass, fat mass and trunk-to-limb fat mass ratio (a surrogate measure of visceral fat). METHODS: Study participants were 574 women and 609 men aged 19-22 years from the Raine study. Body composition, total body bone mineral content (TBBMC), bone area and areal bone mineral density (TBBMD) were measured using DXA. RESULTS: In multivariate linear regression models with height, lean body mass, fat mass and trunk-to-limb fat mass ratio as predictor variables, lean mass was uniquely associated with the largest proportion of variance of TBBMC and TBBMD in males (semi-partial R(2) 0.275 and 0.345, respectively) and TBBMC in females (semi-partial R(2) 0.183). Fat mass was a more important predictor of TBBMC and TBBMD in females (semi-partial R(2) 0.126 and 0.039, respectively) than males (semi-partial R(2) 0.006 and 0.018, respectively). Trunk-to-limb fat mass ratio had a weak, negative association with TBBMC and bone area in both genders (semi-partial R(2) 0.004 to 0.034). CONCLUSIONS: Lean body mass has strong positive relationship with total body bone mass in both genders. Fat mass may play a positive role in peak bone mass attainment in women but the association was weaker in men; different fat compartments may have different effects.