Using the illness-death model to estimate age- and sex-standardized incidence rates of diabetes in Mexico from 2003 to 2015.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to estimate the age-specific and age-standardized incidence rate of diabetes for men and women in Mexico between 2003 and 2015, and to assess the relative change in incidence of diabetes between 2003 and 2015. METHODS: We use a partial differential equation describing the illness-death model to estimate the incidence rate (IR) of diabetes for the years 2003, 2009 and 2015 based on prevalence data from National Health Surveys conducted in Mexico, the mortality rate of the Mexican general population and plausible input values for age-specific mortality rate ratios associated with diabetes. RESULTS: The age-standardized IR of diabetes per 1000 person years (pryr) was similar among men (IRm) and women (IRw) in the year 2003 (IRm 6.1 vs. IRw 6.5 1000/pryr), 2009 (IRm: 7.0 vs. IRw: 8.4 1000/pryr), and in 2015 (IRm 8.0 vs. IRw 10.6 1000/pryr). The highest incident rates were observed among men and women in the 60-69 age group. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the incidence rate of diabetes in Mexico between the years 2003 and 2015 remained stable. However, rates were markedly higher among women in the age group 40-49 and 50-59 in the year 2015 compared with rates in 2003.

Projecting the economic burden of type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus in Germany from 2010 until 2040.

BACKGROUND: The aim is to estimate age- and sex-specific direct medical costs related to diagnosed type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Germany between 2010 and 2040. METHODS: Based on nationwide representative epidemiological routine data from 2010 from the statutory health insurance in Germany (almost 80% of the population's insurance) we projected age- and sex-specific healthcare expenses for type 1 and 2 diabetes considering future demographic, disease-specific and cost trends. We combine per capita healthcare cost data (obtained from aggregated claims data from an almost 7% random sample of all German people with statutory health insurance) together with the demographic structure of the German population (obtained from the Federal Statictical Office), diabetes prevalence, incidence and mortality. Direct per capita costs, total annual costs, cost ratios for people with versus without diabetes and attributable costs were estimated. The source code for running the analysis is publicly available in the open-access repository Zenodo. RESULTS: In 2010, total healthcare costs amounted to more than €1 billion for type 1 and €28 billion for type 2 diabetes. Depending on the scenario, total annual expenses were projected to rise remarkably until 2040 compared to 2010, by 1-281% for type 1 (€1 to €4 billion) and by 8-364% for type 2 diabetes (€30 to €131 billion). In a relatively probable scenario total costs amount to about €2 and €79 billion for type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2040, respectively. Depending on annual cost growth (1% p.a. as realistic scenario vs. 5% p.a. as very extreme setting), we estimated annual per capita costs of €6,581 to €12,057 for type 1 and €5,245 to €8,999 for type 2 diabetes in 2040. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes imposes a large economic burden on Germany which is projected to increase substantially until 2040. Temporal trends in the incidence and cost growth are main drivers of this increase. This highlight the need for urgent action to prepare for the potential development and mitigate its consequences.

Incidence of Parkinson's disease in Germany based on prevalence data from 70 million patients of the statutory health insurance.

BACKGROUND: Parkinson's disease (PD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder characterized by motor and nonmotor system manifestations and psychiatric symptoms. The aim of this study was to estimate the age- and sex-specific incidence of PD in Germany using an illness-death model and a corresponding partial differential equation (PDE) based on prevalence and mortality data. METHODS: Based on a PDE that describes the dynamics in an illness-death model, the age- and sex-specific incidence of PD in Germany was estimated using published prevalence and mortality rates. Prevalence rates were provided by the Central Institute for Statutory Health Insurance (Zi) for the period from 2010 to 2019. Parkinson's related mortality was estimated based on comparable population data from Norway. Bootstrapping was used for incidence estimation (median of 5000 samples) and to obtain 95% confidence intervals to interpret the accuracy of the incidence estimation. RESULTS: Men had higher incidences of PD than women at all ages. The highest incidences (median of 5000 bootstrap samples) for both groups were estimated for the age of 85 years with an incidence of 538.49 per 100,000 person-years (py) in men and 284.09 per 100,000 py in women, with an increasing width of bootstrapping 95% CIs showing greater uncertainty in the estimation at older ages. CONCLUSION: The illness-death model and the corresponding PDE, which describes changes in prevalence as a function of mortality and incidence, can be used to estimate the incidence of PD as a chronic disease. As overestimation of incidence is less likely with this method, we found incidence rates of Parkinson's disease that are suitable for further analyses with a lower risk of bias.

Effect of Lifestyle Counselling via a Mobile Application on Disease Activity Control in Inflammatory Arthritis: A Single-Blinded, Randomized Controlled Study.

BACKGROUND: Mobile applications (apps) are a resource for information on lifestyle and nutrition which are associated to improved outcomes in inflammatory arthritis. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to explore whether targeted lifestyle counselling via an app improves disease activity in arthritis patients. METHODS: Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), spondyloarthritis (SpA), psoriatic arthritis (PsA) were randomized to 12 weeks of lifestyle counselling via an app (Mida, Midaia GmbH, Germany) pertaining to a healthy Mediterranean Diet, physical activity, and mental health. Disease activity was measured with specific instruments by a blinded physician and categorized (remission, low, moderate, high). Dietary adherence was assessed by the Mediterranean Diet Adherence Screener (MEDAS). Mixed effects logistic regression adjusted to baseline disease activity, age, and sex were calculated. RESULTS: Of 158 patients included (73% female, 53.3 ± 11.7 years), 74 were in the active counselling group (ACG). All showed improvement in low disease activity or remission. ACG patients had an odds ratio (OR) of 2.8 (95%-CI 1.1-7.2, p = 0.035), while OR in the control group was not significant OR = 2.1 (0.9-5.0, p = 0.097). The control group was less likely to reach a MEDAS >= 4 (OR = 0.16 (0.03-0.77), p = 0.02), while this was not seen in the ACG (OR = 0.54 (0.06-4.63), p = 0.6). Patients in the ACG showed a tendency towards improved adhesion to a Mediterranean Diet (MEDAS) (ß = 0.35 (-0.05-0.74), p = 0.086). This tendency was not observed in the control group (ß = 0.09 (-0.29-0.46), p = 0.64). CONCLUSIONS: Individualized lifestyle and dietary counselling via app may help to improve disease control in inflammatory arthritis patients.

Estimation of mortality rate ratios for chronic conditions with misclassification of disease status at death.

Estimation of mortality rates and mortality rate ratios (MRR) of diseased and non-diseased individuals is a core metric of disease impact used in chronic disease epidemiology. Estimation of mortality rates is often conducted through retrospective linkage of information from nationwide surveys such as the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and death registries. These surveys usually collect information on disease status during only one study visit. This infrequency leads to missing disease information (with right censored survival times) for deceased individuals who were disease-free at study participation, and a possibly biased estimation of the MRR because of possible undetected disease onset after study participation. This occurrence is called "misclassification of disease status at death (MicDaD)" and it is a potentially common source of bias in epidemiologic studies. In this study, we conducted a simulation analysis with a high and a low incidence setting to assess the extent of MicDaD-bias in the estimated mortality. For the simulated populations, MRR for diseased and non-diseased individuals with and without MicDaD were calculated and compared. Magnitude of MicDaD-bias depends on and is driven by the incidence of the chronic disease under consideration; our analysis revealed a noticeable shift towards underestimation for high incidences when MicDaD is present. Impact of MicDaD was smaller for lower incidence (but associated with greater uncertainty in the estimation of MRR in general). Further research can consider the amount of missing information and potential influencers such as duration and risk factors of the disease.

Population-based incidence of psoriasis vulgaris in Germany: analysis of national statutory insurance data from 65 million population.

Information on the population-based incidence of psoriasis vulgaris was limited. This study was to provide a comprehensive understanding of the age-specific and sex-specific incidence of psoriasis vulgaris in Germany. The data were obtained in the context of a morbidity-based risk adjustment by statutory health insurance companies in Germany, comprising information regarding 65 million population. Psoriasis vulgaris diagnoses were made and coded according to the 10th edition of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems. Age-specific and sex-specific incidences were calculated using data from 2009 to 2011. There was a rise in the age- and sex-specific incidences of psoriasis vulgaris through midlife, reaching a peak at the age of 60 and subsequently declining for both genders. The peak incidence for men, at 130 cases per 100,000 person-years, slightly exceeded the peak incidence for women of 117 per 100,000 person-years. An increase in the overall incidence rate can also be observed over the course of the three-year period covered by the data. Considerable variations in the age- and sex-specific incidences of psoriasis vulgaris can be seen across the lifespan. Nevertheless, the overall age-standardized incidence for the German population was low compared to other European countries.

High Frequency of Osteophytes Detected by High-Resolution Ultrasound at the Finger Joints of Asymptomatic Factory Workers.

Hand Osteoarthritis (HOA) is a frequently occurring musculoskeletal disease that impacts health. Diagnostic criteria often incorporate osteophytes documented through imaging procedures. Radiographic imaging is considered the gold standard; however, more sensitive and safer methods like ultrasound imaging are becoming increasingly important. We conducted a population-based cross-sectional study to examine the prevalence, grade, and pattern of osteophytes using high-resolution ultrasound investigation. Factory workers were recruited on-site for the study. Each participant had 26 finger joints examined using ultrasonography to grade the occurrence of osteophytes on a semi-quantitative scale ranging from 0-3, where higher scores indicate larger osteophytes. A total of 427 participants (mean age 53.5 years, range 20-79 years) were included, resulting in 11,000 joints scored. At least one osteophyte was found in 4546 out of 11,000 (41.3%) joints or in 426 out of 427 (99.8%) participants, but only 5.0% (553) of the joints showed grade 2 or 3 osteophytes. The total osteophyte sum score increased by 0.18 per year as age increased (p < 0.001). The distal interphalangeal joints were the most commonly affected, with 61%, followed by the proximal interphalangeal joints with 48%, carpometacarpal joint 1 with 39%, and metacarpophalangeal joints with 16%. There was no observed impact of gender or workload. In conclusion, ultrasound imaging proves to be a practical screening tool for osteophytes and HOA. Grade 1 osteophytes are often detected in the working population through ultrasound assessments and their incidence increases with age. The occurrence of grade 2 or 3 osteophytes is less frequent and indicates the clinical presence of HOA. Subsequent evaluations are imperative to ascertain the predictive significance of early osteophytes.

A population-based projection of psoriatic arthritis in Germany until 2050: analysis of national statutory health insurance data of 65 million German population.

The population-based prevalence of psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is still unclear and not well described globally. The aim of this study was to conduct a population-based prevalence projection and provide long-term future estimations of PsA patients in Germany until 2050, using the illness-death model and based on historical data. We analyzed the national statutory health insurance data of 65 million population in the German Institute for Medical Documentation and Information between January 2009 and December 2012. We constructed an estimation of the PsA burden among the German population using the relevant epidemiological parameters to project the numbers of patients with PsA in Germany until 2050 under five possible scenarios by varying the incidence and mortality. The overall conservatively estimated prevalence of PsA in Germany in 2019 was 0.31% (95% CI 0.28-0.36%). Women contribute a higher prevalence than men in all five scenarios. In the assumed scenarios with increased incidence, the prevalence of PsA at 60 years of age could rise from 1% in 2019 to more than 3% in 2050 for both genders, with the increase particularly pronounced for women, reaching around 3.5%. However, in the assumed scenarios with decreasing incidence, the prevalence curve may flatten and begin a decreasing trend from 2035 to 2050 for both genders, achieving a prevalence of less than 1% in 2050. Our research is to generate assumed population-based data on PsA in Germany that can serve as a reference for public health stakeholders to prepare an optional intervention. We would expect worryingly high numbers in the coming decades if preventive strategies are not implemented. In the long term, it will be necessary to implement preventive strategies to identify predictors and treat psoriasis symptoms early in order to delay or even prevent the transition of psoriasis to PsA.

Estimation of migraine prevalence considering active and inactive states across different age groups.

BACKGROUND: Migraine is a very common headache disorder on the population level, characterized by symptomatic attacks (activity). For many people with migraine, the migraine symptoms intermittently or permanently cease during their lifetime (inactive migraine). The current diagnostic classification of migraine considers two states: active migraine (having migraine symptoms within the last year) and not having active migraine (including both individuals with inactive migraine and those who never had migraine). Defining a state of inactive migraine that has gone into remission may better capture the trajectories of migraine across the lifespan and contribute to a better understanding of its biological processes. We aimed to quantify the prevalence of never, active, and inactive migraine separately, using modern prevalence and incidence estimation methodology to better describe the complexity of migraine trajectories at the population level. METHODS: Using a multistate modeling approach, data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, and results from a population-based study, we estimated the transition rates by which individuals moved between migraine disease states and estimated prevalences of never, active and inactive migraine. We used data from the GBD project and a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 people with a starting age of 30 and 30 years of follow-up, both in Germany and globally, stratified by sex. RESULTS: In Germany, the estimated rate of transition from active to inactive migraine (remission rate) increased after the age of 22.5 in women and 27.5 in men. The pattern for men in Germany was similar to the one observed on the global level. The prevalence of inactive migraine among women reaches 25.7% in Germany and 16.5% globally at age 60. For men, the inactive migraine prevalence estimates at the same age were 10.4% in Germany and 7.1% globally. CONCLUSIONS: Considering an inactive migraine state explicitly reflects a different epidemiological picture of migraine across the lifecourse. We have demonstrated that many women of older ages may be in an inactive migraine state. Many pressing research questions can only be answered if population-based cohort studies collect information not only on active migraine but also on inactive migraine states.

Beneficial effects associated to a healthy lifestyle in systemic lupus erythematosus: A cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether a healthy lifestyle is associated to beneficial effects on various systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) health domains. METHODS: In a cross-sectional study, Mediterranean Diet Adherence Score (MEDAS), physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE), and smoking status were assessed by questionnaires, along with clinical parameters and various health domains including Systemic Lupus Disease Activity Score (SLEDAI), Depression Scale (CES-D), Fatigue Severity (FSS), functional status (FFbH), physical and mental quality of life (PCS, MCS). Lifestyle choices were assessed with respect to health domains by linear regression modeling. Additionally, SLE patients with a healthy lifestyle (MEDAS ≥ 4, ≥ 1 h sport per week, no smoking) were compared to those without by Wilcoxon's signed-rank test. RESULTS: 49 of 145 SLE patients (44.3 ± 31.7 years, 87.6% female) followed a healthy lifestyle and showed a higher physical quality of life (ß = 4.5 (95%-CI 1.5-7.9) p = 0.01), lower depression (ß = -5.0 (-8.2 to -0.2) p = 0.02) and lower fatigue (ß = -0.8 (-1.5 to -0.2) p = 0.01) independently of SLE disease activity. Furthermore, dsDNA-antibodies were lower (146 ± 540 vs 266 ± 146 U/mL, p = 0.049). In a more detailed analysis, physical activity had the highest impact on the various health domains when compared to smoking or diet adherence, which was consistent even after adjusting for multiple potential confounders. Each 1,000 kcal of weekly PAEE was associated to a 1.8 (0.9-2.6) point increase in the PCS (p = 0.0001), a 0.2 (0.03-0.4) point decrease in the CES-D (p = 0.01) and a 2.8 (1.2-4.4) point increase in the FFbH (p = 0.0006). CONCLUSION: A healthy lifestyle, especially physical activity is associated with beneficial effects including quality of life, depression and fatigue in SLE.

Future number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes in Germany until 2040: an analysis based on claims data.

INTRODUCTION: We aim to project the number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes in Germany between 2010 and 2040. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We first estimate the age-specific and sex-specific incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes in Germany in 2010 using data from 65 million insurees of the German statutory health insurance. Then, we use the illness-death model to project the prevalence of type 1 diabetes until 2040. We alter the incidence and mortality underlying the illness-death model in several scenarios to explore the impact of possible temporal trends on the number of people with type 1 diabetes. RESULTS: Applying the prevalence from 2010 to the official population projections of Germany's Federal Statistical Office yields a total number of 252 000 people with type 1 diabetes in Germany in 2040 (+1% compared with 2010). Incorporating different annual trends of the incidence and mortality in the projection model results in a future number of people with type 1 diabetes between 292 000 (+18%) and 327 000 (+32%). CONCLUSIONS: For the first time in Germany, we provide estimates for the incidence, prevalence, and number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes for the whole German population between 2010 and 2040. The relative increase of the people with type 1 diabetes ranges from 1% to 32% in 2040 compared with 2010. The projected results are mainly influenced by temporal trends in the incidence. Ignoring these trends, that is, applying a constant prevalence to population projections, probably underestimates future chronic disease numbers.

Proof-of-Concept Double-Blind Placebo-Controlled Trial Measuring Cartilage Composition in Early Rheumatoid Arthritis under TNF-α-Inhibitor Therapy.

Low levels of delayed gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging of cartilage (dGEMRIC) values are indicative of cartilage degeneration. Patients with early rheumatoid arthritis are known to have low dGEMRIC values due to inflammatory activity. The additional effect of biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (bDMARD) and conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (csDMARD) treatment on cartilage status is still unclear. In this prospective, double-blinded, randomized proof-of-concept clinical trial, patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (disease duration less than 12 months from symptoms onset) were treated with methotrexate + adalimumab (10 patients: 6/4 (f/m)). A control group with methotrexate alone (four patients: 2/2 (f/m)) was used. Cartilage integrity in the metacarpophalangeal joints was compared using dGEMRIC at baseline, 12, and 24 weeks after treatment initiation. A statistically significant increase in dGEMRIC levels was found in the adalimumab group considering the results after 12 and 24 weeks of therapy (p < 0.05) but not in the control group (p: non-significant). After 24 weeks, a tendency towards increased dGEMRIC values under combination therapy was observed, whereas methotrexate alone showed a slight decrease without meeting the criteria of significance (dGEMRIC mean change: +85.8 ms [-156.2-+346.5 ms] vs. 30.75 ms [-273.0-+131.0 ms]; p: non-significant). After 24 weeks of treatment with a combination of methotrexate and adalimumab, a trend indicating improvement in cartilage composition is seen in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis. However, treatment with methotrexate alone showed no change in cartilage composition, as observed in dGEMRIC sequences of metacarpophalangeal joints.

Age-specific incidence of need for long-term care for men and women in Germany 2015: Cross-sectional study comprising 82 million people.

Background: With the growing number of older people, the number of people in need of long-term care is increasing, too. Official statistics only report on the age-specific prevalence of long-term care. Therefore, there is no data on the age- and sex-specific incidence of the need for care at the population level for Germany available. Methods: Analytical relationships between age-specific prevalence, incidence rate, remission rate, all-cause mortality, and mortality rate ratio are used to estimate the age-specific incidence of long-term care among men and women in 2015. The data is based on the official prevalence data from the nursing care statistics for the years 2011 to 2019 and official mortality rates from the Federal Statistical Office. For Germany, there is no data on the mortality rate ratio of people with and without a need for care, which is why we use two extreme scenarios that were obtained in a systematic literature search to estimate the incidence. Results: The age-specific incidence is about 1 per 1000 person-years (PY) in men and women at the age of 50 and increases exponentially up to the age of 90. Up to about the age of 60, men have a higher incidence rate than women. Thereafter, women have a higher incidence. At the age of 90, women and men have an incidence rate of 145 to 200 and 94 to 153 per 1000 PY, respectively, depending on the scenario. Conclusion: We estimated the age-specific incidence of the need for long-term care for women and men in Germany for the first time. We observed a strong increase, leading to a huge number of people in need of long-term care in higher age groups. It is to be expected that this will result in an increased economic burden and a further increased need for nursing and medical staff.

Estimating incidence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes using prevalence data: the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study.

BACKGROUND: Incidence is one of the most important epidemiologic indices in surveillance. However, determining incidence is complex and requires time-consuming cohort studies or registries with date of diagnosis. Estimating incidence from prevalence using mathematical relationships may facilitate surveillance efforts. The aim of this study was to examine whether a partial differential equation (PDE) can be used to estimate diabetes incidence from prevalence in youth. METHODS: We used age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific estimates of prevalence in 2001 and 2009 as reported in the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study. Using these data, a PDE was applied to estimate the average incidence rates of type 1 and type 2 diabetes for the period between 2001 and 2009. Estimates were compared to annual incidence rates observed in SEARCH. Precision of the estimates was evaluated using 95% bootstrap confidence intervals. RESULTS: Despite the long period between prevalence measures, the estimated average incidence rates mirror the average of the observed annual incidence rates. Absolute values of the age-standardized sex- and type-specific mean relative errors are below 8%. CONCLUSIONS: Incidence of diabetes can be accurately estimated from prevalence. Since only cross-sectional prevalence data is required, employing this methodology in future studies may result in considerable cost savings.

Spatio-Temporal Trends in the Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes in Germany.

BACKGROUND: There are no data on recent trends in the incidence rate of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Germany. The aim of this study was to determine the sex-, age-, and region-specific trends in the T2D incidence rate between 2014 and 2019. METHODS: Based on nationwide data from statutorily insured persons in Germany, negative binomial regression models were used to analyze age- and sex-specific trends in the T2D incidence rate. Age- and sex-adjusted trends were calculated for 401 administrative districts using a Bayesian spatio-temporal regression model. RESULTS: During the period concerned, approximately 450 000 new cases of T2D were observed each year among some 63 million persons. Taking all age groups together, the incidence rate decreased in both women and men, from 6.9 (95% confidence interval [6.7; 7.0]) and 8.4 [8.2; 8.6] respectively per 1000 persons in 2014 to 6.1 [5.9; 6.3] and 7.7 [7.5; 8.0] per 1000 persons in 2019. This corresponds to an annual reduction of 2.4% [1.5; 3.2] for women and 1.7% [0.8; 2.5] for men. The incidence rate increased in the age group 20-39 years. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence rate decreased in almost all districts, although regional differences persisted. CONCLUSION: The T2D incidence rate should be closely monitored to see whether the decreasing trend continues. One must not forget that the prevalence can rise despite decreasing incidence. For this reason, the findings do not necessarily mean a decrease in the disease burden of T2D and the associated demand on healthcare resources.

Projections of Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes Burden in the U.S. Population Aged <20 Years Through 2060: The SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study.

OBJECTIVE: To project the prevalence and number of youths with diabetes and trends in racial and ethnic disparities in the U.S. through 2060. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Based on a mathematical model and data from the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study for calendar years 2002-2017, we projected the future prevalence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes among youth aged <20 years while considering different scenarios of future trends in incidence. RESULTS: The number of youths with diabetes will increase from 213,000 (95% CI 209,000; 218,000) (type 1 diabetes 185,000, type 2 diabetes 28,000) in 2017 to 239,000 (95% CI 209,000; 282,000) (type 1 diabetes 191,000, type 2 diabetes 48,000) in 2060 if the incidence remains constant as observed in 2017. Corresponding relative increases were 3% (95% CI -9%; 21%) for type 1 diabetes and 69% (95% CI 43%; 109%) for type 2 diabetes. Assuming that increasing trends in incidence observed between 2002 and 2017 continue, the projected number of youths with diabetes will be 526,000 (95% CI 335,000; 893,000) (type 1 diabetes 306,000, type 2 diabetes 220,000). Corresponding relative increases would be 65% (95% CI 12%; 158%) for type 1 diabetes and 673% (95% CI 362%; 1,341%) for type 2 diabetes. In both scenarios, substantial widening of racial and ethnic disparities in type 2 diabetes prevalence are expected, with the highest prevalence among non-Hispanic Black youth. CONCLUSIONS: The number of youths with diabetes in the U.S. is likely to substantially increase in future decades, which emphasizes the need for prevention to attenuate this trend.

Projected incidence trends of need for long-term care in German men and women from 2011 to 2021.

Background: The German Federal Statistical Office routinely collects and reports aggregated numbers of people in need of long-term care (NLTC) stratified by age and sex. Age- and sex-specific prevalence of NLTC from 2011 to 2021 is reported as well. One estimation of the incidence rate of NLTC based on the age- and sex-specific prevalence exists that did not explore possible trends in incidence [based on MRR (mortality rate ratio)], which is important for an adequate projection of the future number of people with NLTC. Objective: We aim to explore possible trends in age-specific incidence of NLTC in German men and women from 2011 to 2021 based on different scenarios about excess mortality (in terms of MRR). Methods: The incidence of NLTC was calculated based on an illness-death model and a related partial differential equation based on data from the Federal Statistical Office. Estimation of annual percent change (APC) of the incidence rate was conducted in eight scenarios. Results: There are consistent indications for trends in incidence for men and women aged 50-79 years with APC in incidence rate of more than +9% per year (up to nearly 19%). For ages 80+ the APC is between +0.4% and +12.5%. In all scenarios, women had higher age-specific APCs than men. Conclusion: We performed the first analysis of APC in the age- and sex-specific incidence rate of NLTC in Germany and revealed an increasing trend in the incidences. With these findings, a future prevalence of NLTC can be estimated which may exceed current prognoses.

Lifetime risk, life expectancy, and years of life lost to type 2 diabetes in 23 high-income jurisdictions: a multinational, population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes is a major public health issue. Because lifetime risk, life expectancy, and years of life lost are meaningful metrics for clinical decision making, we aimed to estimate these measures for type 2 diabetes in the high-income setting. METHODS: For this multinational, population-based study, we sourced data from 24 databases for 23 jurisdictions (either whole countries or regions of a country): Australia; Austria; Canada; Denmark; Finland; France; Germany; Hong Kong; Hungary; Israel; Italy; Japan; Latvia; Lithuania; the Netherlands; Norway; Scotland; Singapore; South Korea; Spain; Taiwan; the UK; and the USA. Our main outcomes were lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes, life expectancy in people with and without type 2 diabetes, and years of life lost to type 2 diabetes. We modelled the incidence and mortality of type 2 diabetes in people with and without type 2 diabetes in sex-stratified, age-adjusted, and calendar year-adjusted Poisson models for each jurisdiction. Using incidence and mortality, we constructed life tables for people of both sexes aged 20-100 years for each jurisdiction and at two timepoints 5 years apart in the period 2005-19 where possible. Life expectancy from a given age was computed as the area under the survival curves and lifetime lost was calculated as the difference between the expected lifetime of people with versus without type 2 diabetes at a given age. Lifetime risk was calculated as the proportion of each cohort who developed type 2 diabetes between the ages of 20 years and 100 years. We estimated 95% CIs using parametric bootstrapping. FINDINGS: Across all study cohorts from the 23 jurisdictions (total person-years 1 577 234 194), there were 5 119 585 incident cases of type 2 diabetes, 4 007 064 deaths in those with type 2 diabetes, and 11 854 043 deaths in those without type 2 diabetes. The lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes ranged from 16·3% (95% CI 15·6-17·0) for Scottish women to 59·6% (58·5-60·8) for Singaporean men. Lifetime risk declined with time in 11 of the 15 jurisdictions for which two timepoints were studied. Among people with type 2 diabetes, the highest life expectancies were found for both sexes in Japan in 2017-18, where life expectancy at age 20 years was 59·2 years (95% CI 59·2-59·3) for men and 64·1 years (64·0-64·2) for women. The lowest life expectancy at age 20 years with type 2 diabetes was observed in 2013-14 in Lithuania (43·7 years [42·7-44·6]) for men and in 2010-11 in Latvia (54·2 years [53·4-54·9]) for women. Life expectancy in people with type 2 diabetes increased with time for both sexes in all jurisdictions, except for Spain and Scotland. The life expectancy gap between those with and without type 2 diabetes declined substantially in Latvia from 2010-11 to 2015-16 and in the USA from 2009-10 to 2014-15. Years of life lost to type 2 diabetes ranged from 2·5 years (Latvia; 2015-16) to 12·9 years (Israel Clalit Health Services; 2015-16) for 20-year-old men and from 3·1 years (Finland; 2011-12) to 11·2 years (Israel Clalit Health Services; 2010-11 and 2015-16) for 20-year-old women. With time, the expected number of years of life lost to type 2 diabetes decreased in some jurisdictions and increased in others. The greatest decrease in years of life lost to type 2 diabetes occurred in the USA between 2009-10 and 2014-15 for 20-year-old men (a decrease of 2·7 years). INTERPRETATION: Despite declining lifetime risk and improvements in life expectancy for those with type 2 diabetes in many high-income jurisdictions, the burden of type 2 diabetes remains substantial. Public health strategies might benefit from tailored approaches to continue to improve health outcomes for people with diabetes. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Diabetes Australia.

Epidemiological measures for assessing the dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2-outbreak: Simulation study about bias by incomplete case-detection.

During the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, several epidemiological measures, such as cumulative case-counts (CCC), incidence rates, effective reproduction numbers (Reff) and doubling times, have been used to inform the general public and to justify interventions such as lockdown. It has been very likely that not all infectious people have been identified during the course of the epidemic, which lead to incomplete case-detection. We compare CCC, incidence rates, Reff and doubling times in the presence of incomplete case-detection. For this, an infection-age-structured SIR model is used to simulate a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak followed by a lockdown in a hypothetical population. Different scenarios about temporal variations in case-detection are applied to the four measures during outbreak and lockdown. The biases resulting from incomplete case-detection on the four measures are compared in terms of relative errors. CCC is most prone to bias by incomplete case-detection in all of our settings. Reff is the least biased measure. The possibly biased CCC may lead to erroneous conclusions in cross-country comparisons. With a view to future reporting about this or other epidemics, we recommend including and placing an emphasis on Reff in those epidemiological measures used for informing the general public and policy makers.