Prolonged thermocline warming by near-inertial internal waves in the wakes of tropical cyclones.

Turbulence-enhanced mixing of upper ocean heat allows interaction between the tropical atmosphere and cold water masses that impact climate at higher latitudes thereby regulating air-sea coupling and poleward heat transport. Tropical cyclones (TCs) can drastically enhance upper ocean mixing and generate powerful near-inertial internal waves (NIWs) that propagate down into the deep ocean. Globally, downward mixing of heat during TC passage causes warming in the seasonal thermocline and pumps 0.15 to 0.6 PW of heat into the unventilated ocean. The final distribution of excess heat contributed by TCs is needed to understand subsequent consequences for climate; however, it is not well constrained by current observations. Notably, whether or not excess heat supplied by TCs penetrates deep enough to be kept in the ocean beyond the winter season is a matter of debate. Here, we show that NIWs generated by TCs drive thermocline mixing weeks after TC passage and thus greatly deepen the extent of downward heat transfer induced by TCs. Microstructure measurements of the turbulent diffusivity ([Formula: see text]) and turbulent heat flux (J[Formula: see text]) in the Western Pacific before and after the passage of three TCs indicate that mean thermocline values of [Formula: see text] and J[Formula: see text] increased by factors of 2 to 7 and 2 to 4 (95% confidence level), respectively, after TC passage. Excess mixing is shown to be associated with the vertical shear of NIWs, demonstrating that studies of TC-climate interactions ought to represent NIWs and their mixing to accurately capture TC effects on background ocean stratification and climate.

Transmission dynamics and forecasts of the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico, March-December 2020.

Mexico has experienced one of the highest COVID-19 mortality rates in the world. A delayed implementation of social distancing interventions in late March 2020 and a phased reopening of the country in June 2020 has facilitated sustained disease transmission in the region. In this study we systematically generate and compare 30-day ahead forecasts using previously validated growth models based on mortality trends from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation for Mexico and Mexico City in near real-time. Moreover, we estimate reproduction numbers for SARS-CoV-2 based on the methods that rely on genomic data as well as case incidence data. Subsequently, functional data analysis techniques are utilized to analyze the shapes of COVID-19 growth rate curves at the state level to characterize the spatiotemporal transmission patterns of SARS-CoV-2. The early estimates of the reproduction number for Mexico were estimated between Rt ~1.1-1.3 from the genomic and case incidence data. Moreover, the mean estimate of Rt has fluctuated around ~1.0 from late July till end of September 2020. The spatial analysis characterizes the state-level dynamics of COVID-19 into four groups with distinct epidemic trajectories based on epidemic growth rates. Our results show that the sequential mortality forecasts from the GLM and Richards model predict a downward trend in the number of deaths for all thirteen forecast periods for Mexico and Mexico City. However, the sub-epidemic and IHME models perform better predicting a more realistic stable trajectory of COVID-19 mortality trends for the last three forecast periods (09/21-10/21, 09/28-10/27, 09/28-10/27) for Mexico and Mexico City. Our findings indicate that phenomenological models are useful tools for short-term epidemic forecasting albeit forecasts need to be interpreted with caution given the dynamic implementation and lifting of social distancing measures.

Internal tsunami waves transport sediment released by underwater landslides.

Accelerated by gravity, submarine landslides transfer energy to the marine environment, most notably leading to catastrophic tsunamis. While tsunamis are thought to use less than 15% of the total energy released by landslides, little is known about subsurface processes comprising the rest of their energy budgets. Here, we analyze the first set of observations depicting a lake's interior response to underwater landslides and find that sediment transport is modulated by baroclinic waves that propagate along vertical gradients in temperature and sediment concentration. When traveling along a shallow thermocline, these waves can reach past topographic features that bound turbidity currents and thus expand the influence area of underwater landslides. With order of magnitude calculations, we estimate that observed thermocline internal waves received roughly 0.7% of available landslide energy and infer their contribution to homogenize the lake's thermodynamical properties by means of turbulent mixing. Lastly, we show that landslides in our data set modified the lake's intrinsic dynamical modes and thus had a permanent impact on its circulation. This suggests that measurements of subsurface wave propagation are sufficient to diagnose bathymetric transformations. Our experiment constitutes the first direct observation of both internal tsunami waves and turbidity current reflection. Moreover, it demonstrates that background density stratification has a significant effect on the transport of sediment after submarine landslides and provides a valuable reference for numerical models that simulate submarine mass failures.