An experimental study of network effects on coordination in asymmetric games.

Network structure has often proven to be important in understanding the decision behavior of individuals or agents in different interdependent situations. Computational studies predict that network structure has a crucial influence on behavior in iterated 2 by 2 asymmetric 'battle of the sexes' games. We test such behavioral predictions in an experiment with 240 human subjects. We found that as expected the less 'random' the network structure, the better the experimental results are predictable by the computational models. In particular, there is an effect of network clustering on the heterogeneity of convergence behavior in the network. We also found that degree centrality and having an even degree are important predictors of the decision behavior of the subjects in the experiment. We thus find empirical validation of predictions made by computational models in a computerized experiment with human subjects.

Network effects on coordination in asymmetric games.

Network structure can have an important effect on the behavior of players in an iterated 2 × 2 game. We study the effect of network structure on global and local behavior in asymmetric coordination games using best response dynamics. We find that global behavior is highly dependent on network topology. Random (Erdös-Rényi) networks mostly converge to homogeneous behavior, but the higher the clustering in the network the more heterogeneous the behavior becomes. Behavior within the communities of the network is almost exclusively homogeneous. The findings suggest that clustering of networks facilitates self-organization of uniform behavior within clusters, but heterogeneous behavior between clusters. At the local level we find that some nodes are more important in determining the equilibrium behavior than other nodes. Degree centrality is for most networks the main predictor for the behavior and nodes with an even degree have an advantage over nodes with an uneven degree in dictating the behavior. We conclude that the behavior is difficult to predict for (Erdös-Rényi) networks and that the network imposes the behavior as a function of clustering and degree heterogeneity in other networks.

Analyzing small data sets using Bayesian estimation: the case of posttraumatic stress symptoms following mechanical ventilation in burn survivors.

Background : The analysis of small data sets in longitudinal studies can lead to power issues and often suffers from biased parameter values. These issues can be solved by using Bayesian estimation in conjunction with informative prior distributions. By means of a simulation study and an empirical example concerning posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) following mechanical ventilation in burn survivors, we demonstrate the advantages and potential pitfalls of using Bayesian estimation. Methods : First, we show how to specify prior distributions and by means of a sensitivity analysis we demonstrate how to check the exact influence of the prior (mis-) specification. Thereafter, we show by means of a simulation the situations in which the Bayesian approach outperforms the default, maximum likelihood and approach. Finally, we re-analyze empirical data on burn survivors which provided preliminary evidence of an aversive influence of a period of mechanical ventilation on the course of PTSS following burns. Results : Not suprisingly, maximum likelihood estimation showed insufficient coverage as well as power with very small samples. Only when Bayesian analysis, in conjunction with informative priors, was used power increased to acceptable levels. As expected, we showed that the smaller the sample size the more the results rely on the prior specification. Conclusion : We show that two issues often encountered during analysis of small samples, power and biased parameters, can be solved by including prior information into Bayesian analysis. We argue that the use of informative priors should always be reported together with a sensitivity analysis.