Ethnicity and the surgical management of early invasive breast cancer in over 164 000 women.

BACKGROUND: Limited information is available about patterns of surgical management of early breast cancer by ethnicity of women in England, and any potential inequalities in the treatment received for breast cancer. METHODS: National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service data for women diagnosed with early invasive breast cancer (ICD-10 C50) during 2012-2017 were analysed. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95 per cent confidence intervals for the risk of mastectomy versus breast-conserving surgery by ethnicity (black African, black Caribbean, Indian, Pakistani and white), adjusting for age, region, deprivation, year of diagnosis, co-morbidity and stage at diagnosis. RESULTS: Data from 164 143 women were included in the analysis. The proportion of women undergoing mastectomy fell by approximately 5 per cent between 2012 and 2017 across all the ethnic groups examined. In unadjusted analyses, each ethnic minority group had a significantly higher odds of mastectomy than white women; however, in the fully adjusted model, there were no significantly increased odds of having mastectomy for women of any ethnic minority group examined. For example, compared with white women, the unadjusted and fully adjusted ORs for mastectomy were 1·14 (95 per cent c.i. 1·05 to 1·20) and 1·04 (0·96 to 1·14) respectively for Indian women, and 1·45 (1·30 to 1·62) and 1·00 (0·89 to 1·13) for black African women. This attenuation in OR by ethnicity was largely due to adjustment for age and stage. CONCLUSION: Allowing for different patterns of age and stage at presentation, the surgical management of early breast cancer is similar in all women, regardless of ethnicity.

Bridging the Age Gap: a prognostic model that predicts survival and aids in primary treatment decisions for older women with oestrogen receptor-positive early breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: A prognostic model was developed and validated using cancer registry data. This underpins an online decision support tool, informing primary treatment choice for women aged 70 years or older with hormone receptor-positive early breast cancer. METHODS: Data from women diagnosed between 2002 and 2010 in the English Northern and Yorkshire and West Midlands regions were used to develop the model. Primary treatment options of surgery with adjuvant endocrine therapy or primary endocrine therapy were compared. Models predicting the hazard of breast cancer-specific mortality and hazard of other-cause mortality were combined to derive survival probabilities. The model was validated externally using data from the Eastern Cancer Registration and Information Centre. RESULTS: The model was developed using data from 23 842 women, and validated externally on a data set from 14 526 patients. The overall model calibration was good. At 2 and 5 years, predicted mortality from breast cancer and other causes differed from the observed rate by less than 1 per cent. At 5 years, there were slight overpredictions in breast cancer mortality (2629 predicted versus 2556 observed deaths; P = 0·142) and mortality from all causes (6399 versus 6320 respectively; P = 0·583). The discrepancy varied between subgroups. Model discrimination was 0·75 or above for all mortality measures. CONCLUSION: A prognostic model for older women with oestrogen receptor-positive early breast cancer was developed and validated in the present study. This forms a basis for an online decision support tool (https://agegap.shef.ac.uk/).

ANTECEDENTES: Se ha desarrollado y validado un modelo pronóstico utilizando datos del registro de cáncer. Ello ha permitido ofrecer una herramienta online para facilitar la toma de decisiones respecto a la elección del tratamiento inicial en mujeres mayores de 70 años con cáncer de mama precoz y receptores de hormonas positivos. MÉTODOS: Se incluyeron un total de 23.842 mujeres, diagnosticadas entre 2002 y 2010 en las regiones del Norte, Yorkshire y West Midlands inglesas que cumplieron con los criterios de inclusión. Se compararon dos opciones de tratamiento: cirugía primaria asociada a tratamiento endocrino adyuvante o tratamiento primario endocrino. Para estimar la probabilidad de supervivencia se combinaron modelos predictivos para el riesgo de mortalidad específica por cáncer de mama y para el riesgo de mortalidad por otras causas. Se realizó una validación externa con datos del Eastern Cancer Registration and Information Center (n = 14.526). RESULTADOS: La calibración global del modelo fue buena. A los 2 y 5 años, la mortalidad anticipada por cáncer de mama y por otras causas difería de la observada en menos del 1%. A los 5 años, hubo una ligera sobrevaloración de la predicción de mortalidad por cáncer de mama (prevista versus real: 2.629 versus 2.556, P = 0,78) y de la mortalidad por todas las causas (6.399 versus 6.320, P = 0,14). Esta discrepancia varió entre subgrupos. La capacidad discriminativa del modelo fue del 0,75 o superior para todas las medidas de mortalidad. CONCLUSIÓN: En este estudio, se desarrolló y validó un modelo pronóstico para mujeres mayores con cáncer de mama precoz positivo para receptores de estrógenos. Esta herramienta que facilita la toma de decisiones está disponible online (https://agegap.shef.ac.uk/).

Collateral damage: the impact on outcomes from cancer surgery of the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Cancer diagnostics and surgery have been disrupted by the response of health care services to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Progression of cancers during delay will impact on patients' long-term survival. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We generated per-day hazard ratios of cancer progression from observational studies and applied these to age-specific, stage-specific cancer survival for England 2013-2017. We modelled per-patient delay of 3 and 6 months and periods of disruption of 1 and 2 years. Using health care resource costing, we contextualise attributable lives saved and life-years gained (LYGs) from cancer surgery to equivalent volumes of COVID-19 hospitalisations. RESULTS: Per year, 94 912 resections for major cancers result in 80 406 long-term survivors and 1 717 051 LYGs. Per-patient delay of 3/6 months would cause attributable death of 4755/10 760 of these individuals with loss of 92 214/208 275 life-years, respectively. For cancer surgery, average LYGs per patient are 18.1 under standard conditions and 17.1/15.9 with a delay of 3/6 months (an average loss of 0.97/2.19 LYGs per patient), respectively. Taking into account health care resource units (HCRUs), surgery results on average per patient in 2.25 resource-adjusted life-years gained (RALYGs) under standard conditions and 2.12/1.97 RALYGs following delay of 3/6 months. For 94 912 hospital COVID-19 admissions, there are 482 022 LYGs requiring 1 052 949 HCRUs. Hospitalisation of community-acquired COVID-19 patients yields on average per patient 5.08 LYG and 0.46 RALYGs. CONCLUSIONS: Modest delays in surgery for cancer incur significant impact on survival. Delay of 3/6 months in surgery for incident cancers would mitigate 19%/43% of LYGs, respectively, by hospitalisation of an equivalent volume of admissions for community-acquired COVID-19. This rises to 26%/59%, respectively, when considering RALYGs. To avoid a downstream public health crisis of avoidable cancer deaths, cancer diagnostic and surgical pathways must be maintained at normal throughput, with rapid attention to any backlog already accrued.

International Variation in Criteria for Internal Mammary Chain Radiotherapy.

AIMS: Evidence has emerged that internal mammary chain (IMC) radiotherapy reduces breast cancer mortality, leading to changes in treatment guidelines. This study investigated current IMC radiotherapy criteria and the percentages of patients irradiated for breast cancer in England who fulfilled them. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A systematic search was undertaken for national guidelines published in English during 2013-2018 presenting criteria for 'consideration of' or 'recommendation for' IMC radiotherapy. Patient and tumour variables were collected for patients who received breast cancer radiotherapy in England during 2012-2016. The percentages of patients fulfilling criteria stipulated in each set of guidelines were calculated. RESULTS: In total, 111 729 women were recorded as receiving adjuvant breast cancer radiotherapy in England during 2012-2016 and full data were available on 48 095 of them. Percentages of patients fulfilling IMC radiotherapy criteria in various national guidelines were: UK Royal College of Radiologists 13% (6035/48 095), UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence 18% (8816/48 095), Germany 32% (15 646/48 095), Ireland 56% (26 846/48 095) and USA 59% (28 373/48 095). Differences between countries occurred because in Ireland and the USA, treatment may be considered in some node-negative patients, whereas in the UK, treatment is considered if at least four axillary nodes are involved or for high-risk patients with one to three positive nodes. In Germany, treatment may be considered for all node-positive patients. CONCLUSIONS: There is substantial variability between countries in criteria for consideration of IMC radiotherapy, despite guidelines being based on the same evidence. This will probably lead to large variations in practice and resource needs worldwide.

Adjuvant Chemotherapy for Breast Cancer in Older Women: An Analysis of Retrospective English Cancer Registration Data.

AIMS: Adjuvant chemotherapy is recommended as a treatment for women with high recurrence risk early breast cancer. Older women are less likely to receive chemotherapy than younger women. This study investigated the impact of chemotherapy on breast cancer-specific survival in women aged 70 + years using English registry data. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Cancer registration data were obtained from two English regions from 2002 to 2012 (n = 29 728). The impact of patient-level characteristics on the probability of receiving adjuvant chemotherapy was explored using logistic regression. Survival modelling was undertaken to show the effect of chemotherapy and age/health status on breast cancer-specific survival. Missing data were handled using multiple imputation. RESULTS: In total, 11 735 surgically treated early breast cancer patients were identified. Use of adjuvant chemotherapy has increased over time. Younger age at diagnosis, increased nodal involvement, tumour size and grade, oestrogen receptor-negative or human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive disease were all associated with increased probability of receiving chemotherapy. Chemotherapy was associated with a significant reduction in the hazard of breast cancer-specific mortality in women with high risk cancer, after adjusting for patient-level characteristics (hazard ratio 0.74, 95% confidence interval 0.67-0.81). DISCUSSION: Chemotherapy is associated with an improved breast cancer-specific survival in older women with early breast cancer at high risk of recurrence . Lower rates of chemotherapy use in older women may, therefore, contribute to inferior cancer outcomes. Decisions on potential benefits for individual patients should be made on the basis of life expectancy, treatment tolerance and patient preference.

Epidemiology of basal and cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma in the U.K. 2013-15: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC), together known as keratinocyte cancers (KCs), are the commonest cancer in white ethnic populations. Recent improvements to registry data collection in England has allowed more accurate analysis of the epidemiology of BCC and cSCC and for the first time we are able to provide an accurate (representative) tumour burden for KC in the U.K. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the incidence of BCC and cSCC in the U.K. METHODS: A cohort of patients with KCs between 2013 and 2015 were identified using linkage to diagnostic codes derived from pathology reports collected into the national cancer registry. Data from England's cancer registry were combined with data from Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales. European age-standardized incidence rates (EASRs) of the first BCC and cSCC per patient per annum (PPPA) were calculated. RESULTS: In the U.K, the EASR of the first BCC and cSCC PPPA in 2013-15 were 285 and 77 per 100 000 person years, respectively (211 120 KCs total in 2015). The mean annual percentage increase was 5% between 2013 and 2015 for both BCC and cSCC. By counting the first KC PPPA, we include an additional 51% KCs compared with the previous reporting technique which counts only the first BCC and cSCC in a patient's lifetime, yet it represents a probable underestimation of 5-11% of the true tumour count. CONCLUSIONS: Based on an improved methodology, a more representative incidence of KC is presented, which is essential to healthcare planning and will lead to improved understanding of the epidemiology of KC. What's already known about this topic? Keratinocyte cancers (KCs) are the most common cancers affecting white ethnic populations. The incidence of basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) is increasing worldwide including the U.K., most commonly in elderly male Caucasian patients. These cancers are traditionally substantially underreported and frequently excluded from national cancer statistics. What does this study add? Using improved data collection methods in England and validated tumour-reporting techniques, we report the most accurate BCC and cSCC incidence data for the U.K. ever published. Identifying the first BCC and cSCC per patient per annum, the incidence of BCC and cSCC in the U.K. (excluding Wales) was 285 and 77 per 100 000 person years, respectively, between 2013 and 2015, with more than 210 000 KCs in the U.K. in 2015.

Omission of surgery in older women with early breast cancer has an adverse impact on breast cancer-specific survival.

BACKGROUND: Primary endocrine therapy is used as an alternative to surgery in up to 40 per cent of women with early breast cancer aged over 70 years in the UK. This study investigated the impact of surgery versus primary endocrine therapy on breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) in older women. METHODS: Cancer registration data for 2002-2010 were obtained from two English regions. A retrospective analysis was performed for women with oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive disease, using statistical modelling to show the effect of treatment (surgery or primary endocrine therapy) and age and health status on BCSS. Missing data were handled using multiple imputation. RESULTS: Cancer registration data on 23 961 women were retrieved. After data preprocessing, 18 730 of 23 849 women (78·5 per cent) were identified as having ER-positive disease; of these, 10 087 (53·9 per cent) had surgery and 8643 (46·1 per cent) had primary endocrine therapy. BCSS was worse in the primary endocrine therapy group than in the surgical group (5-year BCSS rate 69·4 and 89·9 per cent respectively). This was true for all strata considered, although the difference was less in the cohort with the greatest degree of co-morbidity. For older, frailer patients the hazard of breast cancer death had less relative impact on overall survival. CONCLUSION: BCSS in older women with ER-positive disease is worse if surgery is omitted. This treatment choice may contribute to inferior cancer outcomes. Selection for surgery on the basis of predicted life expectancy may permit choice of women for whom surgery confers little benefit.