Identification of novel pheno-groups in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction using machine learning.

OBJECTIVE: Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is a heterogeneous syndrome. We aimed to derive HFpEF phenotype-based groups ('phenogroups') based on clinical and echocardiogram data using machine learning, and to compare clinical characteristics, proteomics and outcomes across the phenogroups. METHODS: We applied model-based clustering to 32 echocardiogram and 11 clinical and laboratory variables collected in stable condition from 320 HFpEF outpatients in the Karolinska-Rennes cohort study (56% female, median 78 years (IQR: 71-83)). Baseline proteomics and the composite end point of all-cause mortality or heart failure (HF) hospitalisation were used in secondary analyses. RESULTS: We identified six phenogroups, for which significant differences in the prevalence of concomitant atrial fibrillation (AF), anaemia and kidney disease were observed (p<0.05). Fifteen out of 86 plasma proteins differed between phenogroups (false discovery rate, FDR<0.05), including biomarkers of HF, AF and kidney function. The composite end point was significantly different between phenogroups (log-rank p<0.001), at short-term (100 days), mid-term (18 months) and longer-term follow-up (1000 days). Phenogroup 2 was older, with poorer diastolic and right ventricular function and higher burden of risk factors as AF (85%), hypertension (83%) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (30%). In this group a third experienced the primary outcome to 100 days, and two-thirds to 18 months (HR (95% CI) versus phenogroups 1, 3, 4, 5, 6: 1.5 (0.8-2.9); 5.7 (2.6-12.8); 2.9 (1.5-5.6); 2.7 (1.6-4.6); 2.1 (1.2-3.9)). CONCLUSIONS: Using machine learning we identified distinct HFpEF phenogroups with differential characteristics and outcomes, as well as differential levels of inflammatory and cardiovascular proteins.

Serum kidney injury molecule 1 and ß2-microglobulin perform as well as larger biomarker panels for prediction of rapid decline in renal function in type 2 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: As part of the Surrogate Markers for Micro- and Macrovascular Hard Endpoints for Innovative Diabetes Tools (SUMMIT) programme we previously reported that large panels of biomarkers derived from three analytical platforms maximised prediction of progression of renal decline in type 2 diabetes. Here, we hypothesised that smaller (n ≤ 5), platform-specific combinations of biomarkers selected from these larger panels might achieve similar prediction performance when tested in three additional type 2 diabetes cohorts. METHODS: We used 657 serum samples, held under differing storage conditions, from the Scania Diabetes Registry (SDR) and Genetics of Diabetes Audit and Research Tayside (GoDARTS), and a further 183 nested case-control sample set from the Collaborative Atorvastatin in Diabetes Study (CARDS). We analysed 42 biomarkers measured on the SDR and GoDARTS samples by a variety of methods including standard ELISA, multiplexed ELISA (Luminex) and mass spectrometry. The subset of 21 Luminex biomarkers was also measured on the CARDS samples. We used the event definition of loss of >20% of baseline eGFR during follow-up from a baseline eGFR of 30-75 ml min-1 [1.73 m]-2. A total of 403 individuals experienced an event during a median follow-up of 7 years. We used discrete-time logistic regression models with tenfold cross-validation to assess association of biomarker panels with loss of kidney function. RESULTS: Twelve biomarkers showed significant association with eGFR decline adjusted for covariates in one or more of the sample sets when evaluated singly. Kidney injury molecule 1 (KIM-1) and ß2-microglobulin (B2M) showed the most consistent effects, with standardised odds ratios for progression of at least 1.4 (p < 0.0003) in all cohorts. A combination of B2M and KIM-1 added to clinical covariates, including baseline eGFR and albuminuria, modestly improved prediction, increasing the area under the curve in the SDR, Go-DARTS and CARDS by 0.079, 0.073 and 0.239, respectively. Neither the inclusion of additional Luminex biomarkers on top of B2M and KIM-1 nor a sparse mass spectrometry panel, nor the larger multiplatform panels previously identified, consistently improved prediction further across all validation sets. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Serum KIM-1 and B2M independently improve prediction of renal decline from an eGFR of 30-75 ml min-1 [1.73 m]-2 in type 2 diabetes beyond clinical factors and prior eGFR and are robust to varying sample storage conditions. Larger panels of biomarkers did not improve prediction beyond these two biomarkers.

The Genetic Landscape of Renal Complications in Type 1 Diabetes.

Diabetes is the leading cause of ESRD. Despite evidence for a substantial heritability of diabetic kidney disease, efforts to identify genetic susceptibility variants have had limited success. We extended previous efforts in three dimensions, examining a more comprehensive set of genetic variants in larger numbers of subjects with type 1 diabetes characterized for a wider range of cross-sectional diabetic kidney disease phenotypes. In 2843 subjects, we estimated that the heritability of diabetic kidney disease was 35% (P=6.4×10-3). Genome-wide association analysis and replication in 12,540 individuals identified no single variants reaching stringent levels of significance and, despite excellent power, provided little independent confirmation of previously published associated variants. Whole-exome sequencing in 997 subjects failed to identify any large-effect coding alleles of lower frequency influencing the risk of diabetic kidney disease. However, sets of alleles increasing body mass index (P=2.2×10-5) and the risk of type 2 diabetes (P=6.1×10-4) associated with the risk of diabetic kidney disease. We also found genome-wide genetic correlation between diabetic kidney disease and failure at smoking cessation (P=1.1×10-4). Pathway analysis implicated ascorbate and aldarate metabolism (P=9.0×10-6), and pentose and glucuronate interconversions (P=3.0×10-6) in pathogenesis of diabetic kidney disease. These data provide further evidence for the role of genetic factors influencing diabetic kidney disease in those with type 1 diabetes and highlight some key pathways that may be responsible. Altogether these results reveal important biology behind the major cause of kidney disease.

Metabolomic profiling to dissect the role of visceral fat in cardiometabolic health.

OBJECTIVE: Abdominal obesity is associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease. The aim of this study was to assess whether metabolomic markers of T2D and blood pressure (BP) act on these traits via visceral fat (VF) mass. METHODS: Metabolomic profiling of 280 fasting plasma metabolites was conducted on 2,401 women from TwinsUK. The overlap was assessed between published metabolites associated with T2D, insulin resistance, or BP and those that were identified to be associated with VF (after adjustment for covariates) measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. RESULTS: In addition to glucose, six metabolites were strongly associated with both VF mass and T2D: lactate and branched-chain amino acids, all of them related to metabolism and the tricarboxylic acid cycle; on average, 38.5% of their association with insulin resistance was mediated by their association with VF mass. Five metabolites were associated with BP and VF mass including the inflammation-associated peptide HWESASXX, the steroid hormone androstenedione, lactate, and palmitate. On average, 29% of their effect on BP was mediated by their association with VF mass. CONCLUSIONS: Little overlap was found between the metabolites associated with BP and those associated with insulin resistance via VF mass.

Metabolomic identification of a novel pathway of blood pressure regulation involving hexadecanedioate.

High blood pressure is a major contributor to the global burden of disease and discovering novel causal pathways of blood pressure regulation has been challenging. We tested blood pressure associations with 280 fasting blood metabolites in 3980 TwinsUK females. Survival analysis for all-cause mortality was performed on significant independent metabolites (P<8.9×10(-5)). Replication was conducted in 2 independent cohorts KORA (n=1494) and Hertfordshire (n=1515). Three independent animal experiments were performed to establish causality: (1) blood pressure change after increasing circulating metabolite levels in Wistar-Kyoto rats; (2) circulating metabolite change after salt-induced blood pressure elevation in spontaneously hypertensive stroke-prone rats; and (3) mesenteric artery response to noradrenaline and carbachol in metabolite treated and control rats. Of the15 metabolites that showed an independent significant association with blood pressure, only hexadecanedioate, a dicarboxylic acid, showed concordant association with blood pressure (systolic BP: ß [95% confidence interval], 1.31 [0.83-1.78], P=6.81×10(-8); diastolic BP: 0.81 [0.5-1.11], P=2.96×10(-7)) and mortality (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval], 1.49 [1.08-2.05]; P=0.02) in TwinsUK. The blood pressure association was replicated in KORA and Hertfordshire. In the animal experiments, we showed that oral hexadecanedioate increased both circulating hexadecanedioate and blood pressure in Wistar-Kyoto rats, whereas blood pressure elevation with oral sodium chloride in hypertensive rats did not affect hexadecanedioate levels. Vascular reactivity to noradrenaline was significantly increased in mesenteric resistance arteries from hexadecanedioate-treated rats compared with controls, indicated by the shift to the left of the concentration-response curve (P=0.013). Relaxation to carbachol did not show any difference. Our findings indicate that hexadecanedioate is causally associated with blood pressure regulation through a novel pathway that merits further investigation.

Biomarkers for type 2 diabetes and impaired fasting glucose using a nontargeted metabolomics approach.

Using a nontargeted metabolomics approach of 447 fasting plasma metabolites, we searched for novel molecular markers that arise before and after hyperglycemia in a large population-based cohort of 2,204 females (115 type 2 diabetic [T2D] case subjects, 192 individuals with impaired fasting glucose [IFG], and 1,897 control subjects) from TwinsUK. Forty-two metabolites from three major fuel sources (carbohydrates, lipids, and proteins) were found to significantly correlate with T2D after adjusting for multiple testing; of these, 22 were previously reported as associated with T2D or insulin resistance. Fourteen metabolites were found to be associated with IFG. Among the metabolites identified, the branched-chain keto-acid metabolite 3-methyl-2-oxovalerate was the strongest predictive biomarker for IFG after glucose (odds ratio [OR] 1.65 [95% CI 1.39-1.95], P = 8.46 × 10(-9)) and was moderately heritable (h(2) = 0.20). The association was replicated in an independent population (n = 720, OR 1.68 [ 1.34-2.11], P = 6.52 × 10(-6)) and validated in 189 twins with urine metabolomics taken at the same time as plasma (OR 1.87 [1.27-2.75], P = 1 × 10(-3)). Results confirm an important role for catabolism of branched-chain amino acids in T2D and IFG. In conclusion, this T2D-IFG biomarker study has surveyed the broadest panel of nontargeted metabolites to date, revealing both novel and known associated metabolites and providing potential novel targets for clinical prediction and a deeper understanding of causal mechanisms.