Rift Valley fever trasmission dynamics described by compartmental models.

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is one of the most important zoonotic Transboundary Animal Diseases able to cross international borders and cause devastating effect on animal health and food security. Climate changes and the presence of competent vectors in the most of the current RVF-free temperate countries strongly support the inclusion of RVF virus (RVFV) among the most significant emerging viral threats for public and animal health. The transmission of RVFV is driven by complex eco-climatic factors making the epidemiology of RVF infection difficult to study and to understand. Mathematical, statistical and spatial models are often used to explain the mechanisms underlying these biological processes, providing new and effective tools to plan measures for public health protection. In this paper we performed a systematic literature review on RVF published papers with the aim of identifying and describing the most recent papers developing compartmental models for the study of RVFV transmission dynamics.

OIEBTLABNET: the web-based network of the OIE Bluetongue Reference Laboratories.

Bluetongue (BT) is a mild to severe disease of domestic and wild ruminants caused by the Bluetongue virus (BTV) and generally transmitted by Culicoides biting midges. Its occurrence also determines a livestock trade ban in affected countries with severe economic consequences on national and international trade. For this reason, in May 2011, the OIE encouraged the OIE Reference Laboratories to establish and maintain a BT network to provide expertise and training to the OIE and OIE Member Countries for BT diagnosis, surveillance and control. The network is constantly sustained by world leading scientists in the field of virology, epidemiology, serology, entomology and vaccine development. The website, available at http://oiebtnet.izs.it/btlabnet/, hosts an Information System containing data on BTV outbreaks and strains and a WebGIS that distributes maps on BTV occurrence. In this paper we describe the applications and present the benefits derived from the use of the WebGIS in the context of BT international surveillance network.

The Arbo­zoonet Information System.

The Arbo­zoonet Information System has been developed as part of the 'International Network for Capacity Building for the Control of Emerging Viral Vector Borne Zoonotic Diseases (Arbo­zoonet)' project. The project aims to create common knowledge, sharing data, expertise, experiences, and scientific information on West Nile Disease (WND), Crimean­Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF), and Rift Valley fever (RVF). These arthropod­borne diseases of domestic and wild animals can affect humans, posing great threat to public health. Since November 2011, when the Schmallenberg virus (SBV) has been discovered for the first time in Northern Europe, the Arbo­zoonet Information System has been used in order to collect information on newly discovered disease and to manage the epidemic emergency. The system monitors the geographical distribution and epidemiological evolution of CCHF, RVF, and WND since 1946. More recently, it has also been deployed to monitor the SBV data. The Arbo­zoonet Information System includes a web application for the management of the database in which data are stored and a WebGIS application to explore spatial disease distributions, facilitating the epidemiological analysis. The WebGIS application is an effective tool to show and share the information and to facilitate the exchange and dissemination of relevant data among project's participants.

Spatio-Temporal Identification of Areas Suitable for West Nile Disease in the Mediterranean Basin and Central Europe.

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-transmitted Flavivirus belonging to the Japanese encephalitis antigenic complex of the Flaviviridae family. Its spread in the Mediterranean basin and the Balkans poses a significant risk to human health and forces public health officials to constantly monitor the virus transmission to ensure prompt application of preventive measures. In this context, predictive tools indicating the areas and periods at major risk of WNV transmission are of paramount importance. Spatial analysis approaches, which use environmental and climatic variables to find suitable habitats for WNV spread, can enhance predictive techniques. Using the Mahalanobis Distance statistic, areas ecologically most suitable for sustaining WNV transmission were identified in the Mediterranean basin and Central Europe. About 270 human and equine clinical cases notified in Italy, Greece, Portugal, Morocco, and Tunisia, between 2008 and 2012, have been considered. The environmental variables included in the model were altitude, slope, night time Land Surface Temperature, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Enhanced Vegetation Index, and daily temperature range. Seasonality of mosquito population has been modelled and included in the analyses to produce monthly maps of suitable areas for West Nile Disease. Between May and July, the most suitable areas are located in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and North Cyprus. Summer/Autumn months, particularly between August and October, characterize the suitability in Italy, France, Spain, the Balkan countries, Morocco, North Tunisia, the Mediterranean coast of Africa, and the Middle East. The persistence of suitable conditions in December is confined to the coastal areas of Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and Israel.

The 2011 West Nile disease outbreak in Sardinia region, Italy.

In 2011, strains of West Nile Virus (WNV) belonging to lineage 1 spread for the first time in Sardinia region (Italy). In contrast to previous WNV Italian incursion, the strains were found in Culex modestus and, more surprisingly, they were able to cause severe clinical signs in the affected birds. Based on the partial sequence of the NS3 encoding gene, the Sardinian WNV strains demonstrated a high similarity with the other WNV strains recently detected in the Mediterranean Basin. Nonetheless, the 2011 Sardinian sequences were grouped in a distinct sub-cluster. Both the NS3-249P and NS3-249T genotypes were detected in the Sardinian outbreaks confirming that the co-circulation of different genotypes in the affected population might be common for WNV as for many RNA viruses. No association, however, was observed between virulence and viral genotype.

Vector borne infections in Italy: results of the integrated surveillance system for West Nile disease in 2013.

The epidemiology of West Nile disease (WND) is influenced by multiple ecological factors and, therefore, integrated surveillance systems are needed for early detecting the infection and activating consequent control actions. As different animal species have different importance in the maintenance and in the spread of the infection, a multispecies surveillance approach is required. An integrated and comprehensive surveillance system is in place in Italy aiming at early detecting the virus introduction, monitoring the possible infection spread, and implementing preventive measures for human health. This paper describes the integrated surveillance system for WND in Italy, which incorporates data from veterinary and human side in order to evaluate the burden of infection in animals and humans and provide the public health authorities at regional and national levels with the information needed for a fine tune response.

Epidemiology of West Nile disease in Europe and in the Mediterranean Basin from 2009 to 2013.

West Nile virus (WNV) transmission has been confirmed in the last four years in Europe and in the Mediterranean Basin. An increasing concern towards West Nile disease (WND) has been observed due to the high number of human and animal cases reported in these areas confirming the importance of this zoonosis. A new epidemiological scenario is currently emerging: although new introductions of the virus from abroad are always possible, confirming the epidemiological role played by migratory birds, the infection endemisation in some European territories today is a reality supported by the constant reoccurrence of the same strains across years in the same geographical areas. Despite the WND reoccurrence in the Old World, the overwintering mechanisms are not well known, and the role of local resident birds or mosquitoes in this context is poorly understood. A recent new epidemiological scenario is the spread of lineage 2 strain across European and Mediterranean countries in regions where lineage 1 strain is still circulating creating favourable conditions for genetic reassortments and emergence of new strains. This paper summarizes the main epidemiological findings on WNV occurrence in Europe and in the Mediterranean Basin from 2009 to 2013, considering potential future spread patterns.

Simulación de una explosión nuclear en Valencia, Venezuela: análisis biofísico y médico

Dado el interés actual por los efectos de una detonación nuclear (DN) sobre la población, se aplicaron ecuaciones obtenidas de DN reales para estimar dichos efectos en la ciudad de Valencia, Venezuela. Se simuló por computadora el estallido de un dispositivo de fisión de 15Kt, hipocentro (HC) en el punto medio de la principal avenida, y se consideró el censo poblacional 2002. Cuatro escenarios fueron analizados: A) día nublado, viento 0,1km·h-1, detonación terrestre; B) igual que A pero detonación aérea; C) día soleado, viento 10km·h-1, detonación terrestre; y D) igual a C pero detonación aérea. Resultaron 10069 personas carbonizadas (>10cal·cm-2, <660m del HC), 9737 quemados de 3º (5-10cal·cm-2, 660-930m) y 74855 quemados de 2º (1-5cal·cm-2, 930-2090m) en A; 23847 personas carbonizadas (<1010m), 22125 quemados de 3º (1010-1420m) y 118841 quemados de 2º (1420-3200m) en B; 32658 personas carbonizadas (<1210m), 32791 quemados de 3º (1210-1720m) y 121226 quemados de 2º (1720-3860m) en C; y carbonización de 76674 personas (<1860m), 56837 quemados de 3º (1860-2630m) y 266100 quemados de 2º (2630-5900m) en D. En los 4 escenarios perecerán aproximadamente 68165 personas a <1740m debido a presiones entre 1,39 y 0,135kg·cm-2. Un total de 7419 personas recibirán dosis equivalentes >6Sv; 36632 recibirán de 1 a 6Sv. Las DN terrestres (A y C) generaron el mayor "fallout": 0,05Sv a las 14,6h. y 0,1Sv a los 30min, respectivamente. La radiación acumulada luego de 104 días fue 0,351Sv. Los heridos superarán exponencialmente los centros asistenciales.

In view of the current interest in the effects of nuclear detonations (ND) on the population, equations obtained from real ND were applied to estimate those effects in the city of Valencia, Venezuela. The explosion of a fission device of 15Kt was computer-simulated, with hypocenter (HC) in the midpoint of the main avenue, and the 2002 population census considered. Four settings were analyzed: A) cloudy day, wind 0,1km·h-1, terrestrial detonation; B) similar to A but aerial detonation; C) sunny day, wind 10km·h-1, terrestrial detonation, and D) similar to C but aerial detonation. Casualties were in 10069 carbonized people (>10cal·cm-2, <660m from HC), 9737 3rd degree burned people (5-10cal·cm-2, 660-930m), 74855 2nd deg burned (1-5cal·cm-2, 930-2090m) in A; 23847 carbonized (<1010m), 22125 3rd deg burned (1010-1420m) and 118841 2nd deg burned (1420-3200m) in B; 32658 carbonized (<1210m), 32791 3rd deg burned (1210-1720m) and 121226 2nd deg burned (1720-3860m) in C; and 76674 carbonized (<1860m), 56837 3rd deg burned (1860-2630m) and 266100 2nd deg burned people (2630-5900m) in D. In the four settings approximately 68165 people will die at <1740m due to pressures 1.39-0.135kg·cm-2. A total of 7419 people will receive equivalent doses >6Sv; 36632 will receive 1-6Sv. Terrestrial NDs (A and C) produced the greatest fallout, 0.05Sv at 14.6h and 0.1Sv at 30min, respectively. The accumulated radiation after 104 days was 0.351Sv. Wounded people will exponentialy exceed health facilities.

Devido ao interesse atual pelos efeitos de uma detonação nuclear (DN) sobre a população, aplicaram-se equações obtidas de DN reais para estimar ditos efeitos na cidade de Valencia, Venezuela. Simulou-se por computador a explosão de um dispositivo de fissão de 15Kt, hipocentro (HC) no ponto médio da principal avenida, e considerou-se o censo populacional 2002. Quatro cenários foram analisados: A) dia nublado, vento 0,1km·h-1, detonação terrestre; B) igual que A mas detonação aérea; C) dia ensolarado, vento 10km·h-1, detonação terrestre; e D) igual a C mas detonação aérea. Resultaram 10069 pessoas carbonizadas (>10cal·cm-2, <660m do HC), 9737 queimados de 3º (5-10cal·cm-2, 660-930m) e 74855 queimados de 2º (1-5cal·cm-2, 930-2090m) em A; 23847 pessoas carbonizadas (<1010m), 22125 queimados de 3º (1010-1420m) e 118841 queimados de 2º (1420-3200m) em B; 32658 pessoas carbonizadas (<1210m), 32791 queimados de 3º (1210-1720m) e 121226 queimados de 2º (1720-3860m) em C; e carbonização de 76674 pessoas (<1860m), 56837 queimados de 3º (1860-2630m) e 266100 queimados de 2º (2630-5900m) em D. Nos 4 cenários morrerão aproximadamente 68165 pessoas a <1740m devido a pressões entre 1,39 e 0,135kg·cm-2. Um total de 7419 pessoas receberão doses equivalentes >6Sv; 36632 receberão de 1 a 6Sv. As DN terrestres (A e C) geraram o maior "fallout": 0,05Sv às 14,6h e 0,1Sv aos 30min, respectivamente. A radiação acumulada depois de 104 dias foi 0,351Sv. Os feridos superarão exponencialmente os centros assistenciais.