RESUMO
Seasonal variability in environmental conditions is a strong determinant of animal migrations, but warming temperatures associated with climate change are anticipated to alter this phenomenon with unknown consequences. We used a 40-year fishery-independent survey to assess how a changing climate has altered the migration timing, duration and first-year survival of juvenile bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas). From 1982 to 2021, estuaries in the western Gulf of Mexico (Texas) experienced a mean increase of 1.55°C in autumn water temperatures, and delays in autumn cold fronts by ca. 0.5 days per year. Bull shark migrations in more northern estuaries concomitantly changed, with departures 25-36 days later in 2021 than in 1982. Later, migrations resulted in reduced overwintering durations by up to 81 days, and the relative abundance of post-overwintering age 0-1 sharks increased by >50% during the 40-year study period. Yet, reductions in prey availability were the most influential factor delaying migrations. Juvenile sharks remained in natal estuaries longer when prey were less abundant. Long-term declines in prey reportedly occurred due to reduced spawning success associated with climate change based on published reports. Consequently, warming waters likely enabled and indirectly caused the observed changes in shark migratory behaviour. As water temperatures continue to rise, bull sharks in the north-western Gulf of Mexico could forgo their winter migrations in the next 50-100 years based on current trends and physiological limits, thereby altering their ecological roles in estuarine ecosystems and recruitment into the adult population. It is unclear if estuarine food webs will be able to support changing residency patterns as climate change affects the spawning success of forage species. We expect these trends are not unique to the western Gulf of Mexico or bull sharks, and migratory patterns of predators in subtropical latitudes are similarly changing at a global scale.
RESUMO
Red porgy (Pagrus pagrus) is a reef-associated, economically-important, winter-spawning, protogynous Sparidae species that appears to have declined in abundance in recent years along the southeast United States Atlantic coast. We used spatially-explicit generalized additive models built with fishery-independent chevron trap (1990-2021) and video data (2011-2021) to quantify the ways in which red porgy relative abundance and mean size varied across temporal, spatial, environmental, and habitat variables. Mean red porgy relative abundance from traps declined by 77% between 1992 and 2021, and declines were similarly large (69%) on video between 2011 and 2021. The largest two-year decline in relative abundance occurred early in the COVID-19 pandemic (2019-2021)- 32% in traps and 45% on video-despite already low abundance. Highest red porgy relative abundance from traps and video occurred in deep areas (i.e., 60-100 m) between southern North Carolina and north Georgia, and red porgy preferred low relief but continuous hardbottom habitats (i.e., pavement). We confirmed recent low recruitment of red porgy in the region based on the large increase in mean length (29%) and severe (~99%) declines of juvenile red porgy caught over the 32-year trap survey. Evidence suggests that recruitment failure is partially or mostly responsible for red porgy abundance declines, and, moreover, the regulation of harvest is unlikely to achieve sustainable management goals until recruitment increases.
