Machine learning to predict overall short-term mortality in cutaneous melanoma.

BACKGROUND: Cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) ranks among the ten most frequent malignancies, clinicopathological staging being of key importance to predict prognosis. Artificial intelligence (AI) has been recently applied to develop prognostically reliable staging systems for CMM. This study aims to provide a useful machine learning based tool to predict the overall CMM short-term survival. METHODS: CMM records as collected at the Veneto Cancer Registry (RTV) and at the Veneto regional health service were considered. A univariate Cox regression validated the strength and direction of each independent variable with overall mortality. A range of machine learning models (Logistic Regression classifier, Support-Vector Machine, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and k-Nearest Neighbors) and a Deep Neural Network were then trained to predict the 3-years mortality probability. Five-fold cross-validation and Grid Search were performed to test the best data preprocessing procedures, features selection, and to optimize models hyperparameters. A final evaluation was carried out on a separate test set in terms of balanced accuracy, precision, recall and F1 score. The best model was deployed as online tool. RESULTS: The univariate analysis confirmed the significant prognostic value of TNM staging. Adjunctive clinicopathological variables not included in the AJCC 8th melanoma staging system, i.e., sex, tumor site, histotype, growth phase, and age, were significantly linked to overall survival. Among the models, the Neural Network and the Random Forest models featured the best prognostic performance, achieving a balanced accuracy of 91% and 88%, respectively. According to the Gini importance score, age, T and M stages, mitotic count, and ulceration appeared to be the variables with the greatest impact on survival prediction. CONCLUSIONS: Using data from patients with CMM, we developed an AI algorithm with high staging reliability, on top of which a web tool was implemented ( unipd.link/melanomaprediction ). Being essentially based on routinely recorded clinicopathological variables, it can already be implemented with minimal effort and further tested in the current clinical practice, an essential phase for validating the model's accuracy beyond the original research context.

[Fragility in a Public Health perspective: principles and tools for a "life course" approach prevention- oriented]. / La Fragilità in una prospettiva di Sanità Pubblica: principi e strumenti per un approccio "life course" orientato alla prevenzione.

The Covid-19 pandemic significantly increased the workload for the Italian Health Service. There is few information in the literature on the pediatric population and on the management of pediatric hospitals. The aim of this article is to describe the management of healthcare services during Covid-19 emergency in Regina Margherita Children's Hospital. The Regina Margherita Children's Hospital is specialized in the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of pediatric diseases. About 1000 health worker work in this Hospital and 278 hospitalization places are available.

Uncompleted Emergency Department Care (UEDC): a 5-year population-based study in the Veneto Region, Italy.

INTRODUCTION: Uncompleted visits to emergency departments (UEDC) are a patient safety concern. The purpose of this study was to investigate risk factors for UEDC, describing not only the sociodemographic characteristics of patients who left against medical advice (AMA) and those who left without being seen (LWBS), but also the characteristics of their access to the emergency department (ED) and of the hospital structure. METHODS: This was a cross sectional study on anonymized administrative data in a population-based ED database. RESULTS: A total of 9,147,415 patients attended EDs in the Veneto Region from 2011 to 2015. The UEDC rate was 28.7‰, with a slightly higher rate of AMA than of LWBS (15.3‰ vs 13.4‰). Age, sex, citizenship, and residence were sociodemographic factors associated with UEDC, and so were certain characteristics of access, such as mode of admission, type of referral, emergency level, waiting time before being seen, and type of medical issue (trauma or other). Some characteristics of the hospital structure, such as the type of hospital and the volume of patients managed, could also be associated with UEDC. CONCLUSION: Cases of UEDC, which may involve patients who leave AMA and those who LWBS, differ considerably from other cases managed at the ED. The present findings are important for the purpose of planning and staffing health services. Decision-makers should identify and target the factors associated with UEDC to minimize walkouts from public hospital EDs.

Perception and knowledge of HPV-related and vaccine-related conditions among a large cohort of university students in Italy.

HPV is involved in cervical, anal, penile, vulvar and oropharyngeal cancers, as well as genital warts. It is important to investigate knowledge and attitudes among university students, considering in this age a shift in healthcare decision-making from parents to students themselves. The aim of this study was to estimate knowledge and perception of HPV in terms of potential shame for HPV-related conditions, trust in vaccine efficacy and worry for potential side effects. The study involved students (18-25 years old) from the Universities of Padua and Verona, Italy. Socio-demographic and behavioural characteristics were collected with a questionnaire (n = 9988). Female gender and older age were positively associated with higher knowledge. The adjusted logistic regression showed an association between the set of perceptions investigated and the vaccination status, while a direct connection with knowledge was not found. However, another adjusted linear regression showed that a good set of perceptions could be partially explained by a high level of knowledge. Perceptions seem to fill an intermediate position between the knowledge and the decision to get vaccinated. The potential shame deriving from asking for HPV-vaccination was not identified as a relevant barrier. Having received information from healthcare workers, family and school showed to be positively associated with the adhesion to the vaccination policy. This study identifies university students as a possible target for HPV vaccination and pinpoints specific areas that might be targeted as first to encourage vaccine uptake. Primary prevention together with screening programmes remains essential in further reducing the burden of HPV-related diseases.

Marital status and stage of cancer at diagnosis: A systematic review.

Early cancer detection is fundamental to the promotion of better health in the community, but disparities remain in the likelihood of cancer being detected at an early stage, some of which relate to socio-demographic factors such as marital status. The aim of this study was to conduct a systematic review of research on the association between marital status and stage at diagnosis of different types of cancer. A comprehensive systematic literature search was run in the Medline and Scopus databases (from January 1990 to June 2014), identifying 245 and 208 articles on PubMed and Scopus respectively. Of these 453 studies, 18 were judged eligible for this systematic review. A quality assessment was performed on the studies using the 22 items in the STROBE (Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology) checklist. This review confirmed the important influence of being married on the earlier detection of cancer. None of the studies considered identified more cases of cancer in a later stage among married patients, and the majority of them reported a statically significant association between marital status and stage at diagnosis, with a positive effect of marriage on the likelihood of cancer being diagnosed at an early stage, for various types of malignancy. In particular, our meta-analysis showed that the unmarried have higher odds of having a later stage of breast cancer (OR = 1.287 95% CI: 1.025-1.617) or melanoma (OR = 1.350 95% CI: 1.161-1.570) at diagnosis. Specific interventions should be developed for the unmarried population to improve their chances of any neoplasms being diagnosed at an early stage, thereby reducing health disparities in the population at large.

Cost-effectiveness of emergency versus delayed laparoscopic cholecystectomy for acute gallbladder pathology.

BACKGROUND: The optimal timing of cholecystectomy for patients admitted with acute gallbladder pathology is unclear. Some studies have shown that emergency cholecystectomy during the index admission can reduce length of hospital stay with similar rates of conversion to open surgery, complications and mortality compared with a 'delayed' operation following discharge. Others have reported that cholecystectomy during the index acute admission results in higher morbidity, extended length of stay and increased costs. This study examined the cost-effectiveness of emergency versus delayed cholecystectomy for acute benign gallbladder disease. METHODS: Using data from a prospective population-based cohort study examining the outcomes of cholecystectomy in the UK and Ireland, a model-based cost-utility analysis was conducted from the perspective of the UK National Health Service, with a 1-year time horizon for costs and outcomes. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to investigate the impact of parameter uncertainty on the results obtained from the model. RESULTS: Emergency cholecystectomy was found to be less costly (£4570 versus £4720; €5484 versus €5664) and more effective (0·8868 versus 0·8662 QALYs) than delayed cholecystectomy. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that the emergency strategy is more than 60 per cent likely to be cost-effective across willingness-to-pay values for the QALY from £0 to £100 000 (€0-120 000). CONCLUSION: Emergency cholecystectomy is less costly and more effective than delayed cholecystectomy. This approach is likely to be beneficial to patients in terms of improved health outcomes and to the healthcare provider owing to the reduced costs.

Impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination: a retrospective study of hospitalization for pneumonia in North-East Italy.

INTRODUCTION: Pneumonia remains a common reason for hospitalizing infants and the elderly worldwide, and streptococcal infection is often responsible. The aim of this study was to assess the burden of pneumonia in a large general population. METHODS: All pneumonia-related hospitalizations from 2004 to 2013 in north-east Italy were identified from the hospital records with a first-listed diagnosis on discharge of bacterial pneumonia, or a first-listed diagnosis on discharge of meningitis, septicemia or empyema associated with a secondary diagnosis of bacterial pneumonia. We identified major comorbidities, calculated agespecific case-fatality rates (CFR), and estimated the related cost to the health care system. RESULTS: Of the 125,722 hospitalizations identified, 96.9% were cases of pneumonia, 2.4% of septicemia, 0.4% of meningitis, and 0.3% of empyema; 75.3% of hospitalizations involved ≥ 65-yearolds. The overall CFR was 12.4%, and it increased with age, peaking in people over 80 (19.6%). The mean annual pneumonia-associated hospitalization rate was 204.6 per 100,000 population, and it peaked in 0- to 4-year-old children (325.6 per 100,000 in males, 288.9 per 100,000 in females), and adults over 65 (844.9 per 100,000 in males, 605.7 per 100,000 in females). Hospitalization rates dropped over the years for the 0-4 year-olds, and rose for people over 80. The estimated overall annual cost of these pneumonia-related hospitalizations was approximately € 41 million. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that the burden on resources for pneumonia-related hospitalization is an important public health issue. Prevention remains the most valuable tool for containing pneumonia, and vaccination strategies can help in the primary prevention of infection, possibly reducing the number of cases in all age groups.

The new pandemic influenza A/(H1N1)pdm09 virus: is it really "new"?

In June 2009, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a pandemic alert concerning the spread of an influenza A (H1N1) virus that showed distinctive genetic characteristics vis-à-vis both seasonal influenza strains and vaccine strains. The main mutation occurred in the gene coding for hemagglutinin (HA). Mathematical models were developed to calculate the transmissibility of the virus; the results indicated a significant overlap with the transmissibility of previous pandemic strains and seasonal strains. The remarkable feature of A/(H1N1)pdm09, compared with seasonal strains, is its high fatality rate and its higher incidence among younger people. Data provided by the WHO on the number of deaths caused by A/(H1N1)pdm09 only include laboratory-confirmed cases. Some authors suggest that these data could underestimate the magnitude of the event, as laboratory confirmation is not obtained in all cases. It is important to bear in mind that the A/(H1N1)pdm09 virus is still circulating in the population. It is therefore essential to maintain its epidemiological and virological surveillance.

A surveillance system of Invasive Pneumococcal Disease in North-Eastern Italy.

BACKGROUND: From 2007, in the Veneto Region (Italy), a surveillance system for invasive pneumococcal diseases (IPD) was implemented to estimate the regional epidemiology of IPD and to evaluate the impact of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) vaccination. METHODS: Data were collected from 2007 to 2014 and the total, annual and age-specific IPD notification rates were calculated. A Poisson regression model was used to identify the possible risk factors for developing IPD. RESULTS: A total of 713 IPD cases were notified and the overall IPD notification rate was equal to 2.0 cases per 100,000 population (95% CI: 1.7-2.1), with an increasing trend between 2007 and 2014. The pneumococcal serotypes were identified in 608 (85.3%) isolates from biological specimens, and the most distributed serotypes were those contained in PCV13. Children <5 year-old and the adults over 65 year-old showed the highest PCV13 vaccine-type IPD notification rate, equal to 2.7/100,000 and 2.8/100,000, respectively. The risk to develop IPD was greater in children aged <5 years (RR = 8.9, 95% CI: 5.1-15.9; p<0.0001) and in adults aged >65 years (RR = 4.3, 95% CI: 2.7-6.9; p<0.0001), especially in males > 65 years of age (RR = 1.7, 95% CI: 1.0-2.8; p = 0.042). The invasive pneumococcal disease was mainly caused by the PCV13 serotypes (RR = 2.9, 95%CI: 2.3-3.9; p<0.0001), principally after the PCV13 introduction (RR = 2.3, 95% CI: 1.4-3.8; p<0.001). In spite of that, a significant reduction of the overall IPD incidence is evident in the period following the PCV13 vaccine introduction (RR = 0.4, 95% CI: 0.3-0.5; p<0.0001), particularly in children aged <5 years (RR = 0.3, 95% CI: 0.2-0.7; p = 0.002), demonstrating the real efficacy of PCV13 immunization for children. CONCLUSIONS: In the Veneto Region, the surveillance system has allowed to describe the detailed epidemiological profile of invasive pneumococcal disease, pointing out that the most circulating pneumococcal serotypes were those contained in the PCV13 vaccine.

Geocoding health data with Geographic Information Systems: a pilot study in northeast Italy for developing a standardized data-acquiring format.

INTRODUCTION: Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have become an innovative and somewhat crucial tool for analyzing relationships between public health data and environment. This study, though focusing on a Local Health Unit of northeastern Italy, could be taken as a benchmark for developing a standardized national data-acquiring format, providing a step-by-step instructions on the manipulation of address elements specific for Italian language and traditions. METHODS: Geocoding analysis was carried out on a health database comprising 268,517 records of the Local Health Unit of Rovigo in the Veneto region, covering a period of 10 years, starting from 2001 up to 2010. The Map Service provided by the Environmental Research System Institute (ESRI, Redlands, CA), and ArcMap 10.0 by ESRI(®) were, respectively, the reference data and the GIS software, employed in the geocoding process. RESULTS: The first attempt of geocoding produced a poor quality result, having about 40% of the addresses matched. A procedure of manual standardization was performed in order to enhance the quality of the results, consequently a set of guiding principle were expounded which should be pursued for geocoding health data. High-level geocoding detail will provide a more precise geographic representation of health related events. CONCLUSIONS: The main achievement of this study was to outline some of the difficulties encountered during the geocoding of health data and to put forward a set of guidelines, which could be useful to facilitate the process and enhance the quality of the results. Public health informatics represents an emerging specialty that highlights on the application of information science and technology to public health practice and research. Therefore, this study could draw the attention of the National Health Service to the underestimated problem of geocoding accuracy in health related data for environmental risk assessment.

Diabetes outcomes within integrated healthcare management programs.

AIM: The aim of this observational study was to assess mortality of patients with type 2 diabetes by type of healthcare delivery system, i.e. through specialist centers or generalist doctors, or integrated care. METHODS: The study was conducted at the "Vicentino Ovest" Local Health District in the Veneto Region (north-eastern Italy) from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2010. Patients with diabetes (≥ 20 years old) were identified using different public health databases. They were grouped as: patients followed up by specialists at diabetes clinics (DS); patients seen only by their own general practitioner (GP); and patients receiving integrated care (DS-GP). Cox's regression analysis was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios for available potential predictors of death by level of care. RESULTS: The crude mortality rate was highest in the GP group (26.1 per 1000 person-years), the difference being minimal when compared with the DS group (21.7 per 1000 person-years) and more marked when compared with the DS-GP group (8.8 per 1000 person-years). Patients followed up by their GPs had a 2.7 adjusted RR for mortality by comparison with the DS-GP group. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of the present study could demonstrate that it is safe and cost-effective, after a first specialist assessment at a diabetes service, for low-risk diabetic patients to be managed by family physicians as part of a coordinated care approach, based on the specialist's clinical recommendations; GPs can subsequently refer patients to a specialist whenever warranted by their clinical condition.

Quality of life in patients with scalp psoriasis.

AIM: The aims of this study were to describe the quality of life (QoL) in patients suffering of scalp psoriasis and to assess the impact of the socio-demographic and clinical features of this condition on patients' health-related QoL, using general and specific QoL scales. METHODS: This research is a cross-sectional study. The study involved 55 patients attending their first examination at the Dermatology Clinic of Padua University over the course of one year (April 2010-March 2011). The outcome was quality of life analyzed by means Scalpdex and SF-36 questionnaire. RESULTS: The sample's mean Scalpdex score was 43.60±17.52, while the mean SF-36 score was 68.28±20.32. The SF-36 identified statistically significant differences between the psoriasis patients and the Italian general population in two domains, i.e. general health (P=0.0075) and emotional role (P=0.0048). The severity of patients' scalp lesions emerged as a factor associated with a reduced QoL in these patients, irrespective of the severity of their disease as a whole. Sex, age, schooling and other socio-demographic factors also characterized patients' perceived QoL. CONCLUSION: Patients with scalp psoriasis suffered from a lower QoL relating to the highly visible site of their psoriatic lesions. Specific supportive measures should be dedicated to these patients by health care workers.

Older adults in Emergency Department: management by clinical severity at triage.

BACKGROUND: The elderly are involved in an ever-increasing proportion of Emergency Department (ED) visits, consuming a large share of the available resources. The aim of this study was to assess elderly individuals' demand for ED hospital care, in terms of the management process and outcomes by level of urgency at triage. METHODS: The design was a retrospective cohort study. Details on ED attendance were drawn from the 2010 dataset of the Local Health Agency n°18 (n=18,648) in the Veneto Region, North-East Italy and the participants were resident seniors seen at the ED aged 65 or more. RESULTS: At triage on arrival, their priority was most often (in 38.63% of cases) considered non-urgent (white triage tag - Wt). In the majority of these cases, the elderly patients were self-referred, although about 1 in 5 of them had been referred by their General Practitioners. The consumption of resources for specialist visit and routine X-rays is higher for non-urgent patients. Injuries, requests for specialist examinations and musculoskeletal disorders account for a large proportion of the reasons why elderly people classified as Wt at triage had gone to the ED. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that older patients have high rates of non-urgent ED attendance, especially for minor traumatic events or requests to see a specialist. This picture emphasizes the need to develop new organizational models for delivering care to meet the most common health care needs of this special frail population.

Health consequences of road accidents: insights from local health authority registries.

BACKGROUND: Road accidents are a major public health problem that affect all age groups but their impact is most striking among the young. The aim of this study is to quantify the burden of road traffic injuries, their mortality and direct in-patient economic costs and to identify the age classes at highest risk for severe road traffic injuries, through analysis of data collected by information systems of an Italian Local Health Authority. METHODS: The study was conducted in a Local Health Authority of Veneto Region. Injured people were selected from Emergency Department (2006-2010). Data were linked to the Hospital Information System for hospital admissions and to the Mortality Registry to check 30-day mortality. The direct costs associated to hospitalizations were estimated through Diagnosis Related Group reimbursement rates. Multivariate analysis was performed using hospitalization and mortality as the dependent variables and gender, age, day of week when accident occurred as the independent variables. Traffic injury, hospitalization and mortality incidence rates were calculated by gender and age per 100,000 residents per year. RESULTS: The road traffic injuries were 9,192, decreasing from 2,112 in 2006 to 1,980 in 2010. Among injured persons 55.3% were male (68.1% among 15-19 age class); 41.7% young people aged 15-34 years (43.9% among male, 39.0% among female). Total hospitalisation rate was 5.9%. Overall mortality rate was 0.3% (0.9% among aged 65 or older). The cost of hospital admission was euro 2,742,505 (hospitalization mean cost euro 5,097). Risk of hospitalization and death was higher in male, in elderly and during week end. Young people aged 15-19 had the highest incidence of visits (2,258.4 per 100,000) and high hospitalisation weekend and mortality rates (respectively 101.5 and 8.5). CONCLUSIONS: Analysis at local level, using current data sources, permits to estimate the burden of injuries caused by road-traffic, to describe the characteristics of injured persons and finally to estimate costs of care. All this information could be used to make the population aware of its own risk for road accidents. Linkage of these data with police and transport data is required to focus prevention on higher risk groups and to adopt effective local road safety strategies.

A comparison of student motivation in selecting bachelors of nursing or paediatric nursing at an Italian university.

AIM: To investigate students' reasons for choosing general or paediatric nursing, and to compare motivation factors and personal characteristics between the two professions. BACKGROUND: In Italy, nursing students can choose between two distinct career paths: general and paediatric nursing. However, it is unclear what factors motivate a student to choose between these two pathways. METHODS: A cross-sectional approach was used to compare a sample of general and paediatric nursing students enrolled in a university in northeast Italy. We administered a questionnaire that covered socio-demographic characteristics and included an instrument of motivation developed by Zysberg & Berry to 224 students enrolled in the 3-year classes. RESULTS: We analysed 215 questionnaires (96%). Paediatric nurses were generally younger, had attended a college preparatory high school and had previously failed another university programme. Many students, in both groups, had a relative who was a nurse, or had cared for a sick friend or family member. Students did not vary significantly in how they evaluated items included in the questionnaire. CONCLUSION: A career in nursing should be advised for students who are motivated to help other people. Paediatric nursing was identified as an acceptable career choice by students of college preparatory high schools or by students who had initially enrolled in a different university programme. General nursing was a satisfactory choice by students with previous work experience.

[Which prevention programs effectively reduce the risk of alcohol consumption in young people?]. / Quali programmi di prevenzione possono ridurre efficacemente il rischio di consumo di alcol nei giovani?

Alcohol consumption among young people is a major public health problem and the Italian National Health Institute considers it the leading cause of death for people under 24 years old, mainly due to road accidents. This study summarizes the evidence emerging from three Cochrane Collaboration reviews, aiming to orient the choice of alcohol prevention programs for young people. The first review considered schemes implemented at school to prevent alcohol consumption under 18 years of age; the second concerned studies on programs to reduce alcohol abuse by means of social norms; the third examined 56 trials on schemes for preventing young people from drinking. In the first review, 6 of 11 alcohol prevention schemes showed some signs of efficacy, and 14 of 39 schemes to combat substance abuse generally induced a significantly alcohol use reduction. The second review included three specific programs for alcohol-related problems with a > 17-month follow-up and they were effective. In the third review, 15 of 39 schemes proved effective in the short-term, 9 of 12 with medium follow-up were no longer effective (and alcohol consumption even increased in 2), while 3 long-term trials and 2 of 3 community schemes proved effective. These Cochrane reviews did not assess all strategies for preventing alcohol abuse in the young which have been implemented in different countries, because many interventions has been conducted spontaneously without any evaluation of their efficacy. An international registry on substance abuse prevention measures is warranted, with shared criteria for assessing their effects, to orient public health policies.

Why do patients change their general practitioner? Suggestions on corrective actions.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to determine what made people want to change their choice of general practitioners (GP). Furthermore, the study aimed to correlate the perceived quality of patient-GP communication with the motives inducing individuals to change their doctors. METHODS: All people requesting to change their GPs were asked by the office staff to complete a questionnaire. RESULTS: The study identifies the following main reasons for changing GP: patients perceived the doctor as unwilling to listen to them; patients did not receive the services that they considered useful for their health; and patients perceived the doctor's disorganization as an obstacle to accessibility. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest several actions to improve the doctor-patient relationship, including training for physicians to develop their communication skills; involving public health operators in helping to understand the rights and obligations of patients and doctors; and a reorganization of the GP's workload.

Alcohol consumption and metabolic syndrome in the elderly: results from the Italian longitudinal study on aging.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Although there is plenty of evidence of the association between metabolic syndrome (MS) and cardiovascular disease, the relationship between alcohol consumption and MS is still questioned. The few publications with respect to the elderly seem to indicate that alcohol consumption is unassociated with MS. The aim of this study was to assess the association between alcohol consumption and the prevalence and incidence of MS, as well as its components in a large sample of Italian elderly people. SUBJECTS/METHODS: This is a multicenter study on a population-based sample of Italian people aged 65-84 years. The Italian Longitudinal Study on Aging (ILSA) included a prevalence phase in 1992 and an incidence phase from 1995 to 1996. The median length of follow-up was 3.5 years. In the present study, the analysis included 1321 men grouped into five alcohol consumption classes: abstainers, and those consuming or=48 g of alcohol in a day. Among the 1122 women considered, the last two of the above five categories were pooled together (>24 g/day). MS was defined according to ATP III criteria. All statistical analyses were stratified by gender. RESULTS: Adjusted odds ratios showed that categorized alcohol consumption was not significantly associated with the prevalence and incidence of MS when compared with abstainers in either gender. For the MS incidence survey, three of five components (systolic pressure, glycemia and waist circumference) proved to be significantly and harmfully affected by alcohol consumption in males, whereas no such significant association emerged in females. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that alcohol can modify an individual's metabolic condition and that, even among the elderly, men might be more sensitive to the effects of alcohol than women.

Alcohol consumption and cardiovascular risk factors in older lifelong wine drinkers: the Italian Longitudinal Study on Aging.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: A protective effect of moderate alcohol consumption on the cardiovascular system has consistently been reported, but limited evidence has been produced on the association of alcohol with metabolic factors in the elderly. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between different levels of current alcohol consumption and cardiovascular risk factors in a representative sample of elderly Italian men, mainly wine drinkers. METHODS AND RESULTS: This is a cross-sectional multi-centre study on a population-based sample of Italian men aged 65-84 years, drawn from the Italian Longitudinal Study on Aging (ILSA) cohort. The analyses included 1896 men. Almost all the drinkers (98%) drank wine as a lifelong habit. Adjusted ORs for risk levels for cardiovascular factors (BMI, waist circumference, fibrinogen, α2 protein, white blood cells, HDL cholesterol, Apo A-I, total cholesterol, Apo B-I, triglycerides, LDL, glycated hemoglobin, insulin, fasting plasma glucose, HOMA IR, systolic and diastolic blood pressure) were estimated, comparing drinkers with teetotalers using multivariate logistic regression models. We found alcohol consumption in older age associated with healthier hematological values of fibrinogen, HDL cholesterol, Apo A-I lipoprotein and insulin, but it was also associated with a worse hematological picture of total, LDL cholesterol levels, and systolic pressure. CONCLUSION: Our results indicated in elderly moderate wine drinkers a noticeably safe metabolic, inflammatory and glycemic profile that might balance higher blood pressure, leading to a net benefit. These findings however need to be placed in relation to the known adverse social and health effects of heavy drinking.