Coccidioides niches and habitat parameters in the southwestern United States: a matter of scale.

To determine habitat attributes and processes suitable for the growth of Coccidioides, soils were collected from sites in Arizona, California, and Utah where Coccidioides is known to have been present. Humans or animals or both have been infected by Coccidioides at all of the sites. Soil variables considered in the upper 20 cm of the soil profile included pH, electrical conductivity, salinity, selected anions, texture, mineralogy, vegetation types and density, and the overall geomorphologic and ecological settings. Thermometers were buried to determine the temperature range in the upper part of the soil where Coccidioides is often found. With the exception of temperature regimes and soil textures, it is striking that none of the other variables or group of variables that might be definitive are indicative of the presence of Coccidioides. Vegetation ranges from sparse to relatively thick cover in lower Sonoran deserts, Chaparral-upper Sonoran brush and grasslands, and Mediterranean savannas and forested foothills. No particular grass, shrub, or forb is definitive. Material classified as very fine sand and silt is abundant in all of the Coccidioides-bearing soils and may be their most common shared feature. Clays are not abundant (less than 10%). All of the examined soil locations are noteworthy as generally 50% of the individuals who were exposed to the dust or were excavating dirt at the sites were infected. Coccidioides has persisted in the soil at a site in Dinosaur National Monument, Utah for 37 years and at a Tucson, Arizona site for 41 years.

A complex systems model approach to quantified mineral resource appraisal.

For federal and state land management agencies, mineral resource appraisal has evolved from value-based to outcome-based procedures wherein the consequences of resource development are compared with those of other management options. Complex systems modeling is proposed as a general framework in which to build models that can evaluate outcomes. Three frequently used methods of mineral resource appraisal (subjective probabilistic estimates, weights of evidence modeling, and fuzzy logic modeling) are discussed to obtain insight into methods of incorporating complexity into mineral resource appraisal models. Fuzzy logic and weights of evidence are most easily utilized in complex systems models. A fundamental product of new appraisals is the production of reusable, accessible databases and methodologies so that appraisals can easily be repeated with new or refined data. The data are representations of complex systems and must be so regarded if all of their information content is to be utilized. The proposed generalized model framework is applicable to mineral assessment and other geoscience problems. We begin with a (fuzzy) cognitive map using (+1,0,-1) values for the links and evaluate the map for various scenarios to obtain a ranking of the importance of various links. Fieldwork and modeling studies identify important links and help identify unanticipated links. Next, the links are given membership functions in accordance with the data. Finally, processes are associated with the links; ideally, the controlling physical and chemical events and equations are found for each link. After calibration and testing, this complex systems model is used for predictions under various scenarios.