Costing the Morbidity and Mortality Consequences of Zoonoses Using Health-Adjusted Life Years.

Governments are routinely involved in the biosecurity of agricultural and food imports and exports. This involves controlling the complex ongoing threat of the broad range of zoonoses: endemic, exotic and newly emerging. Policy-related decision-making in these areas requires accurate information and predictions concerning the effects and potential impacts of zoonotic diseases. The aim of this article was to provide information concerning the development and use of utility-based tools, specifically disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), for measuring the burden on human disease (morbidity and mortality) as a consequence of zoonotic infections. Issues and challenges to their use are also considered. Non-monetary utility approaches that are reviewed in this paper form one of a number of tools that can be used to estimate the monetary and non-monetary 'cost' of morbidity- and mortality-related consequences. Other tools derive from cost-of-illness, willingness-to-pay and multicriteria approaches. Utility-based approaches are specifically designed to capture the pain, suffering and loss of functioning associated with diseases, zoonotic and otherwise. These effects are typically complicated to define, measure and subsequently 'cost'. Utility-based measures will not be able to capture all of the effects, especially those that extend beyond the health sector. These will more normally be captured in financial terms. Along with other uncommon diseases, the quality of the relevant epidemiological data may not be adequate to support the estimation of losses in utility as a result of zoonoses. Other issues in their use have been identified. New empirical studies have shown some success in addressing these issues. Other issues await further study. It is concluded that, bearing in mind all caveats, utility-based methods are important tools in assessing the magnitude of the impacts of zoonoses in human disease. They make an important contribution to decision-making and priority setting across all sectors. In doing so, they highlight the relative importance of the burden of zoonotic disease globally.

Inferring extinction risks from sighting records.

Estimating the probability that a species is extinct based on historical sighting records is important when deciding how much effort and money to invest in conservation policies. The framework we offer is more general than others in the literature to date. Our formulation allows for definite and uncertain observations, and thus better accommodates the realities of sighting record quality. Typically, the probability of observing a species given it is extant/extinct is challenging to define, especially when the possibility of a false observation is included. As such, we assume that observation probabilities derive from a representative probability density function. We incorporate this randomness in two different ways ("quenched" versus "annealed") using a framework that is equivalent to a Bayes formulation. The two methods can lead to significantly different estimates for extinction. In the case of definite sightings only, we provide an explicit deterministic calculation (in which observation probabilities are point estimates). Furthermore, our formulation replicates previous work in certain limiting cases. In the case of uncertain sightings, we allow for the possibility of several independent observational types (specimen, photographs, etc.). The method is applied to the Caribbean monk seal, Monachus tropicalis (which has only definite sightings), and synthetic data, with uncertain sightings.

A Novel Spore Collection Device for Sampling Exposure Pathways: A Case Study of Puccinia psidii.

A device comprising a filter attached to a vacuum cleaner was purpose-built to sample rust spores from three potentially high-risk pathways in Australia: passengers, fresh flowers, and sea cargo. The proportion of spores recovered from eight surfaces comparable with those on each pathway (cotton, denim, roses, carnations, chrysanthemums, wood, plastic, and metal) was estimated in the laboratory. Spore recovery percentages were highest for denim clothing (61% Puccinia triticina Erikss. and 62% Uromycladium tepperianum) and lowest for carnations (4% P. triticina Erikss. and 5% U. tepperianum). Subsequently, the device was tested at several locations on the Central Coast of New South Wales, Australia, recently affected by a "myrtle rust" outbreak. Symptomatic and asymptomatic myrtle rust hosts, myrtle rust nonhosts, and inanimate objects (e.g., clothing and vehicles) were sampled in conjunction with the emergency response to the outbreak. A polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay developed for P. psidii established the presence of myrtle rust, and visual inspections provided spore count estimations. All samples from symptomatic myrtle rust hosts produced positive PCR results and spore count estimations were generally much greater. Several samples from asymptomatic myrtle rust hosts, myrtle rust nonhosts, and inanimate objects also produced positive PCR results; however, there were discrepancies between PCR results and spore count estimations in some of these samples, all of which had <100 spores. This study highlights the utility of the device and analytical methodology, especially during the early stages of a disease outbreak when infection symptoms on plants and contamination on objects is not visible upon gross examination.

Comparison of web-based biosecurity intelligence systems: BioCaster, EpiSPIDER and HealthMap.

Three web-based biosecurity intelligence systems - BioCaster, EpiSPIDER and HealthMap--are compared with respect to their ability to gather and analyse information relevant to public health. Reports from each system for the period 2-30 August 2010 were studied. The systems were compared to the volume of information that they acquired, their overlaps in this information, their timeliness, their sources, their focus on different languages and their focus on different geographical regions. Main results were as follows: EpiSPIDER obtains the most information and does so mainly through Twitter; no significant difference in systems' timeliness was found; there is a relatively small overlap between the systems (10-20%); the systems have significant differences in their ability to acquire information relevant to different countries, which may be due to the sources they use and the languages they focus on.

Reconciling uncertain costs and benefits in Bayes nets for invasive species management.

Bayes nets are used increasingly to characterize environmental systems and formalize probabilistic reasoning to support decision making. These networks treat probabilities as exact quantities. Sensitivity analysis can be used to evaluate the importance of assumptions and parameter estimates. Here, we outline an application of info-gap theory to Bayes nets that evaluates the sensitivity of decisions to possibly large errors in the underlying probability estimates and utilities. We apply it to an example of management and eradication of Red Imported Fire Ants in Southern Queensland, Australia and show how changes in management decisions can be justified when uncertainty is considered.

Genetic variation in the vulnerable and endemic Monkey Puzzle tree, detected using RAPDs.

Araucaria araucana (Monkey Puzzle), a southern South American tree species of exceptional cultural and economic importance, is of conservation concern owing to extensive historical clearance and current human pressures. Random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) markers were used to characterise genetic heterogeneity within and among 13 populations of this species from throughout its natural range. Extensive genetic variability was detected and partitioned by analysis of molecular variance, with the majority of variation existing within populations (87.2%), but significant differentiation was recorded among populations (12.8%). Estimates of Shannon's genetic diversity and percent polymorphism were relatively high for all populations and provide no evidence for a major reduction in genetic diversity from historical events, such as glaciation. All pairwise genetic distance values derived from analysis of molecular variance (Phi(ST)) were significant when individual pairs of populations were compared. Although populations are geographically divided into Chilean Coastal, Chilean Andes and Argentinean regions, this grouping explained only 1.77% of the total variation. Within Andean groups there was evidence of a trend of genetic distance with increasing latitude, and clustering of populations across the Andes, suggesting postglacial migration routes from multiple refugia. Implications of these results for the conservation and use of the genetic resource of this species are discussed.

The currency and tempo of extinction.

This study examines estimates of extinction rates for the current purported biotic crisis and from the fossil record. Studies that compare current and geological extinctions sometimes use metrics that confound different sources of error and reflect different features of extinction processes. The per taxon extinction rate is a standard measure in paleontology that avoids some of the pitfalls of alternative approaches. Extinction rates reported in the conservation literature are rarely accompanied by measures of uncertainty, despite many elements of the calculations being subject to considerable error. We quantify some of the most important sources of uncertainty and carry them through the arithmetic of extinction rate calculations using fuzzy numbers. The results emphasize that estimates of current and future rates rely heavily on assumptions about the tempo of extinction and on extrapolations among taxa. Available data are unlikely to be useful in measuring magnitudes or trends in current extinction rates.

Predictive accuracy of population viability analysis in conservation biology.

Population viability analysis (PVA) is widely applied in conservation biology to predict extinction risks for threatened species and to compare alternative options for their management. It can also be used as a basis for listing species as endangered under World Conservation Union criteria. However, there is considerable scepticism regarding the predictive accuracy of PVA, mainly because of a lack of validation in real systems. Here we conducted a retrospective test of PVA based on 21 long-term ecological studies--the first comprehensive and replicated evaluation of the predictive powers of PVA. Parameters were estimated from the first half of each data set and the second half was used to evaluate the performance of the model. Contrary to recent criticisms, we found that PVA predictions were surprisingly accurate. The risk of population decline closely matched observed outcomes, there was no significant bias, and population size projections did not differ significantly from reality. Furthermore, the predictions of the five PVA software packages were highly concordant. We conclude that PVA is a valid and sufficiently accurate tool for categorizing and managing endangered species.