Probabilistic estimation of residential air exchange rates for population-based human exposure modeling.

Residential air exchange rates (AERs) are a key determinant in the infiltration of ambient air pollution indoors. Population-based human exposure models using probabilistic approaches to estimate personal exposure to air pollutants have relied on input distributions from AER measurements. An algorithm for probabilistically estimating AER was developed based on the Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory Infiltration model utilizing housing characteristics and meteorological data with adjustment for window opening behavior. The algorithm was evaluated by comparing modeled and measured AERs in four US cities (Los Angeles, CA; Detroit, MI; Elizabeth, NJ; and Houston, TX) inputting study-specific data. The impact on the modeled AER of using publically available housing data representative of the region for each city was also assessed. Finally, modeled AER based on region-specific inputs was compared with those estimated using literature-based distributions. While modeled AERs were similar in magnitude to the measured AER they were consistently lower for all cities except Houston. AERs estimated using region-specific inputs were lower than those using study-specific inputs due to differences in window opening probabilities. The algorithm produced more spatially and temporally variable AERs compared with literature-based distributions reflecting within- and between-city differences, helping reduce error in estimates of air pollutant exposure.

Air Pollution Exposure Model for Individuals (EMI) in Health Studies: Evaluation for Ambient PM2.5 in Central North Carolina.

Air pollution health studies of fine particulate matter (diameter ≤2.5 µm, PM2.5) often use outdoor concentrations as exposure surrogates. Failure to account for variability of indoor infiltration of ambient PM2.5 and time indoors can induce exposure errors. We developed and evaluated an exposure model for individuals (EMI), which predicts five tiers of individual-level exposure metrics for ambient PM2.5 using outdoor concentrations, questionnaires, weather, and time-location information. We linked a mechanistic air exchange rate (AER) model to a mass-balance PM2.5 infiltration model to predict residential AER (Tier 1), infiltration factors (Tier 2), indoor concentrations (Tier 3), personal exposure factors (Tier 4), and personal exposures (Tier 5) for ambient PM2.5. Using cross-validation, individual predictions were compared to 591 daily measurements from 31 homes (Tiers 1-3) and participants (Tiers 4-5) in central North Carolina. Median absolute differences were 39% (0.17 h(-1)) for Tier 1, 18% (0.10) for Tier 2, 20% (2.0 µg/m(3)) for Tier 3, 18% (0.10) for Tier 4, and 20% (1.8 µg/m(3)) for Tier 5. The capability of EMI could help reduce the uncertainty of ambient PM2.5 exposure metrics used in health studies.

Modeling spatial and temporal variability of residential air exchange rates for the Near-Road Exposures and Effects of Urban Air Pollutants Study (NEXUS).

Air pollution health studies often use outdoor concentrations as exposure surrogates. Failure to account for variability of residential infiltration of outdoor pollutants can induce exposure errors and lead to bias and incorrect confidence intervals in health effect estimates. The residential air exchange rate (AER), which is the rate of exchange of indoor air with outdoor air, is an important determinant for house-to-house (spatial) and temporal variations of air pollution infiltration. Our goal was to evaluate and apply mechanistic models to predict AERs for 213 homes in the Near-Road Exposures and Effects of Urban Air Pollutants Study (NEXUS), a cohort study of traffic-related air pollution exposures and respiratory effects in asthmatic children living near major roads in Detroit, Michigan. We used a previously developed model (LBL), which predicts AER from meteorology and questionnaire data on building characteristics related to air leakage, and an extended version of this model (LBLX) that includes natural ventilation from open windows. As a critical and novel aspect of our AER modeling approach, we performed a cross validation, which included both parameter estimation (i.e., model calibration) and model evaluation, based on daily AER measurements from a subset of 24 study homes on five consecutive days during two seasons. The measured AER varied between 0.09 and 3.48 h(-1) with a median of 0.64 h(-1). For the individual model-predicted and measured AER, the median absolute difference was 29% (0.19 h­1) for both the LBL and LBLX models. The LBL and LBLX models predicted 59% and 61% of the variance in the AER, respectively. Daily AER predictions for all 213 homes during the three year study (2010-2012) showed considerable house-to-house variations from building leakage differences, and temporal variations from outdoor temperature and wind speed fluctuations. Using this novel approach, NEXUS will be one of the first epidemiology studies to apply calibrated and home-specific AER models, and to include the spatial and temporal variations of AER for over 200 individual homes across multiple years into an exposure assessment in support of improving risk estimates.

Applicability of the environmental relative moldiness index for quantification of residential mold contamination in an air pollution health effects study.

The Near-Road Exposures and Effects of Urban Air Pollutants Study (NEXUS) investigated the impact of exposure to traffic-related air pollution on the respiratory health of asthmatic children in Detroit, Michigan. Since indoor mold exposure may also contribute to asthma, floor dust samples were collected in participants homes (n = 112) to assess mold contamination using the Environmental Relative Moldiness Index (ERMI). The repeatability of the ERMI over time, as well as ERMI differences between rooms and dust collection methods, was evaluated for insights into the application of the ERMI metric. ERMI values for the standard settled floor dust samples had a mean ± standard deviation of 14.5 ± 7.9, indicating high levels of mold contamination. ERMI values for samples collected from the same home 1 to 7 months apart (n = 52) were consistent and without systematic bias. ERMI values for separate bedroom and living room samples were highly correlated (r = 0.69, n = 66). Vacuum bag dust ERMI values were lower than for floor dust but correlated (r = 0.58, n = 28). These results support the use of the ERMI to evaluate residential mold exposure as a confounder in air pollution health effects studies.

A comparison of exposure metrics for traffic-related air pollutants: application to epidemiology studies in Detroit, Michigan.

Vehicles are major sources of air pollutant emissions, and individuals living near large roads endure high exposures and health risks associated with traffic-related air pollutants. Air pollution epidemiology, health risk, environmental justice, and transportation planning studies would all benefit from an improved understanding of the key information and metrics needed to assess exposures, as well as the strengths and limitations of alternate exposure metrics. This study develops and evaluates several metrics for characterizing exposure to traffic-related air pollutants for the 218 residential locations of participants in the NEXUS epidemiology study conducted in Detroit (MI, USA). Exposure metrics included proximity to major roads, traffic volume, vehicle mix, traffic density, vehicle exhaust emissions density, and pollutant concentrations predicted by dispersion models. Results presented for each metric include comparisons of exposure distributions, spatial variability, intraclass correlation, concordance and discordance rates, and overall strengths and limitations. While showing some agreement, the simple categorical and proximity classifications (e.g., high diesel/low diesel traffic roads and distance from major roads) do not reflect the range and overlap of exposures seen in the other metrics. Information provided by the traffic density metric, defined as the number of kilometers traveled (VKT) per day within a 300 m buffer around each home, was reasonably consistent with the more sophisticated metrics. Dispersion modeling provided spatially- and temporally-resolved concentrations, along with apportionments that separated concentrations due to traffic emissions and other sources. While several of the exposure metrics showed broad agreement, including traffic density, emissions density and modeled concentrations, these alternatives still produced exposure classifications that differed for a substantial fraction of study participants, e.g., from 20% to 50% of homes, depending on the metric, would be incorrectly classified into "low", "medium" or "high" traffic exposure classes. These and other results suggest the potential for exposure misclassification and the need for refined and validated exposure metrics. While data and computational demands for dispersion modeling of traffic emissions are non-trivial concerns, once established, dispersion modeling systems can provide exposure information for both on- and near-road environments that would benefit future traffic-related assessments.

Air quality modeling in support of the Near-Road Exposures and Effects of Urban Air Pollutants Study (NEXUS).

A major challenge in traffic-related air pollution exposure studies is the lack of information regarding pollutant exposure characterization. Air quality modeling can provide spatially and temporally varying exposure estimates for examining relationships between traffic-related air pollutants and adverse health outcomes. A hybrid air quality modeling approach was used to estimate exposure to traffic-related air pollutants in support of the Near-Road Exposures and Effects of Urban Air Pollutants Study (NEXUS) conducted in Detroit (Michigan, USA). Model-based exposure metrics, associated with local variations of emissions and meteorology, were estimated using a combination of the American Meteorological Society/Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model (AERMOD) and Research LINE-source dispersion model for near-surface releases (RLINE) dispersion models, local emission source information from the National Emissions Inventory, detailed road network locations and traffic activity, and meteorological data from the Detroit City Airport. The regional background contribution was estimated using a combination of the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) and the Space-Time Ordinary Kriging (STOK) models. To capture the near-road pollutant gradients, refined "mini-grids" of model receptors were placed around participant homes. Exposure metrics for CO, NOx, PM2.5 and its components (elemental and organic carbon) were predicted at each home location for multiple time periods including daily and rush hours. The exposure metrics were evaluated for their ability to characterize the spatial and temporal variations of multiple ambient air pollutants compared to measurements across the study area.

Development of a Web-based surgical booking and informed consent system to reduce the potential for error and improve communication.

BACKGROUND: The decision to perform an elective procedure often originates during an office visit between surgeon and patient. Several administrative tasks follow, including scheduling or "booking" of the case and obtaining informed consent. These processes require communicating accurate information regarding diagnosis, procedure, and other patient-specific details necessary for the safe and effective performance of an operation. Nonstandardized and paper-based consents pose difficulty with legibility, portability, and consistency, thereby representing a source of potential error and inefficiency. There are numerous barriers to efficiently booking elective surgical procedures and obtaining a legible, complete, and easily retrievable informed consent. An integrated Web-based booking and consent system was developed at a multisite university-affiliated community hospital system to improve the speed and quality of work flow, as well as communication with both the patients and staff. METHODS: A booking and consent system was developed and made available over the intranet. This customized system was created by leveraging existing information systems. RESULTS: The electronic consent system uses surgeon-specific templates and allows for a consistent approach to each procedure. A printed consent form can be generated at any time from any of the health care system's three campuses and is commonly stored in the electronic medical record. Integration into our perioperative system allows for coordination with the operating room staff, administrative personal, financial coordinators, and central supply. Total systems expenditure for development was estimated at $40,000 (US). CONCLUSIONS: Organizations considering standardizing their own consent and operating room booking processes can review this experience in making their own "make or buy" decision for their own settings.

Dispersion Modeling of Traffic-Related Air Pollutant Exposures and Health Effects Among Children with Asthma in Detroit, Michigan.

Vehicular traffic is a major source of ambient air pollution in urban areas. Traffic-related air pollutants, including carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter, and diesel exhaust emissions, have been associated with adverse human health effects, especially in areas near major roads. In addition to emissions from vehicles, ambient concentrations of air pollutants include contributions from stationary sources and background (or regional) sources. Although dispersion models have been widely used to evaluate air quality strategies and policies and can represent the spatial and temporal variation in environments near roads, the use of these models in health studies to estimate air pollutant exposures has been relatively limited. This paper summarizes the modeling system used to estimate exposures in the Near-Roadway Exposure and Urban Air Pollutant Study, an epidemiological study that examined 139 children with asthma or symptoms consistent with asthma, most of whom lived near major roads in Detroit, Michigan. Air pollutant concentrations were estimated with a hybrid modeling framework that included detailed inventories of mobile and stationary sources on local and regional scales; the RLINE, AERMOD, and CMAQ dispersion models; and monitored observations of pollutant concentrations. The temporal and spatial variability in emissions and exposures over the 2.5-year study period and at more than 300 home and school locations was characterized. The paper highlights issues with the development and understanding of the significance of traffic-related exposures through the use of dispersion models in urban-scale exposure assessments and epidemiology studies.

Exposure prediction approaches used in air pollution epidemiology studies: key findings and future recommendations.

Many epidemiologic studies of the health effects of exposure to ambient air pollution use measurements from central-site monitors as their exposure estimate. However, measurements from central-site monitors may lack the spatial and temporal resolution required to capture exposure variability in a study population, thus resulting in exposure error and biased estimates. Articles in this dedicated issue examine various approaches to predict or assign exposures to ambient pollutants. These methods include combining existing central-site pollution measurements with local- and/or regional-scale air quality models to create new or "hybrid" models for pollutant exposure estimates and using exposure models to account for factors such as infiltration of pollutants indoors and human activity patterns. Key findings from these articles are summarized to provide lessons learned and recommendations for additional research on improving exposure estimation approaches for future epidemiological studies. In summary, when compared with use of central-site monitoring data, the enhanced spatial resolution of air quality or exposure models can have an impact on resultant health effect estimates, especially for pollutants derived from local sources such as traffic (e.g., EC, CO, and NO(x)). In addition, the optimal exposure estimation approach also depends upon the epidemiological study design. We recommend that future research develops pollutant-specific infiltration data (including for PM species) and improves existing data on human time-activity patterns and exposure to local source (e.g., traffic), in order to enhance human exposure modeling estimates. We also recommend comparing how various approaches to exposure estimation characterize relationships between multiple pollutants in time and space and investigating the impact of improved exposure estimates in chronic health studies.

Development and evaluation of alternative approaches for exposure assessment of multiple air pollutants in Atlanta, Georgia.

Measurements from central site (CS) monitors are often used as estimates of exposure in air pollution epidemiological studies. As these measurements are typically limited in their spatiotemporal resolution, true exposure variability within a population is often obscured, leading to potential measurement errors. To fully examine this limitation, we developed a set of alternative daily exposure metrics for each of the 169 ZIP codes in the Atlanta, GA, metropolitan area, from 1999 to 2002, for PM(2.5) and its components (elemental carbon (EC), SO(4)), O(3), carbon monoxide (CO), and nitrogen oxides (NOx). Metrics were applied in a study investigating the respiratory health effects of these pollutants. The metrics included: (i) CS measurements (one CS per pollutant); (ii) air quality model results for regional background pollution; (iii) local-scale AERMOD air quality model results; (iv) hybrid air quality model estimates (a combination of (ii) and (iii)); and (iv) population exposure model predictions (SHEDS and APEX). Differences in estimated spatial and temporal variability were compared by exposure metric and pollutant. Comparisons showed that: (i) both hybrid and exposure model estimates exhibited high spatial variability for traffic-related pollutants (CO, NO(x), and EC), but little spatial variability among ZIP code centroids for regional pollutants (PM(2.5), SO(4), and O(3)); (ii) for all pollutants except NO(x), temporal variability was consistent across metrics; (iii) daily hybrid-to-exposure model correlations were strong (r>0.82) for all pollutants, suggesting that when temporal variability of pollutant concentrations is of main interest in an epidemiological application, the use of estimates from either model may yield similar results; (iv) exposure models incorporating infiltration parameters, time-location-activity budgets, and other exposure factors affect the magnitude and spatiotemporal distribution of exposure, especially for local pollutants. The results of this analysis can inform the development of more appropriate exposure metrics for future epidemiological studies of the short-term effects of particulate and gaseous ambient pollutant exposure in a community.

The triggering of myocardial infarction by fine particles is enhanced when particles are enriched in secondary species.

Previous studies have reported an increased risk of myocardial infarction (MI) associated with acute increases in PM concentration. Recently, we reported that MI/fine particle (PM2.5) associations may be limited to transmural infarctions. In this study, we retained data on hospital discharges with a primary diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (using International Classification of Diseases ninth Revision [ICD-9] codes), for those admitted January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2006, who were ≥ 18 years of age, and were residents of New Jersey at the time of their MI. We excluded MI with a diagnosis of a previous MI and MI coded as a subendocardial infarction, leaving n = 1563 transmural infarctions available for analysis. We coupled these health data with PM2.5 species concentrations predicted by the Community Multiscale Air Quality chemical transport model, ambient PM2.5 concentrations, and used the same case-crossover methods to evaluate whether the relative odds of transmural MI associated with increased PM2.5 concentration is modified by the PM2.5 composition/mixture (i.e., mass fractions of sulfate, nitrate, elemental carbon, organic carbon, and ammonium). We found the largest relative odds estimates on the days with the highest tertile of sulfate mass fraction (OR = 1.13; 95% CI = 1.00, 1.27), nitrate mass fraction (OR = 1.18; 95% CI = 0.98, 1.35), and ammonium mass fraction (OR = 1.13; 95% CI = 1.00 1.28), and the lowest tertile of EC mass fraction (OR = 1.17; 95% CI = 1.03, 1.34). Air pollution mixtures on these days were enhanced in pollutants formed through atmospheric chemistry (i.e., secondary PM2.5) and depleted in primary pollutants (e.g., EC). When mixtures were laden with secondary PM species (sulfate, nitrate, and/or organics), we observed larger relative odds of myocardial infarction associated with increased PM2.5 concentrations. Further work is needed to confirm these findings and examine which secondary PM2.5 component(s) is/are responsible for an acute MI response.

Refined ambient PM2.5 exposure surrogates and the risk of myocardial infarction.

Using a case-crossover study design and conditional logistic regression, we compared the relative odds of transmural (full-wall) myocardial infarction (MI) calculated using exposure surrogates that account for human activity patterns and the indoor transport of ambient PM(2.5) with those calculated using central-site PM(2.5) concentrations to estimate exposure to PM(2.5) of outdoor origin (exposure to ambient PM(2.5)). Because variability in human activity and indoor PM(2.5) transport contributes exposure error in epidemiologic analyses when central-site concentrations are used as exposure surrogates, we refer to surrogates that account for this variability as "refined" surrogates. As an alternative analysis, we evaluated whether the relative odds of transmural MI associated with increases in ambient PM(2.5) is modified by residential air exchange rate (AER), a variable that influences the fraction of ambient PM(2.5) that penetrates and persists indoors. Use of refined exposure surrogates did not result in larger health effect estimates (ORs=1.10-1.11 with each interquartile range (IQR) increase), narrower confidence intervals, or better model fits compared with the analysis that used central-site PM(2.5). We did observe evidence for heterogeneity in the relative odds of transmural MI with residential AER (effect-modification), with residents of homes with higher AERs having larger ORs than homes in lower AER tertiles. For the level of exposure-estimate refinement considered here, our findings add support to the use of central-site PM(2.5) concentrations for epidemiological studies that use similar case-crossover study designs. In such designs, each subject serves as his or her own matched control. Thus, exposure error related to factors that vary spatially or across subjects should only minimally impact effect estimates. These findings also illustrate that variability in factors that influence the fraction of ambient PM(2.5) in indoor air (e.g., AER) could possibly bias health effect estimates in study designs for which a spatiotemporal comparison of exposure effects across subjects is conducted.

Air pollution exposure prediction approaches used in air pollution epidemiology studies.

Epidemiological studies of the health effects of outdoor air pollution have traditionally relied upon surrogates of personal exposures, most commonly ambient concentration measurements from central-site monitors. However, this approach may introduce exposure prediction errors and misclassification of exposures for pollutants that are spatially heterogeneous, such as those associated with traffic emissions (e.g., carbon monoxide, elemental carbon, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter). We review alternative air quality and human exposure metrics applied in recent air pollution health effect studies discussed during the International Society of Exposure Science 2011 conference in Baltimore, MD. Symposium presenters considered various alternative exposure metrics, including: central site or interpolated monitoring data, regional pollution levels predicted using the national scale Community Multiscale Air Quality model or from measurements combined with local-scale (AERMOD) air quality models, hybrid models that include satellite data, statistically blended modeling and measurement data, concentrations adjusted by home infiltration rates, and population-based human exposure model (Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation, and Air Pollutants Exposure models) predictions. These alternative exposure metrics were applied in epidemiological applications to health outcomes, including daily mortality and respiratory hospital admissions, daily hospital emergency department visits, daily myocardial infarctions, and daily adverse birth outcomes. This paper summarizes the research projects presented during the symposium, with full details of the work presented in individual papers in this journal issue.

Identifying housing and meteorological conditions influencing residential air exchange rates in the DEARS and RIOPA studies: development of distributions for human exposure modeling.

Appropriate prediction of residential air exchange rate (AER) is important for estimating human exposures in the residential microenvironment, as AER drives the infiltration of outdoor-generated air pollutants indoors. AER differences among homes may result from a number of factors, including housing characteristics and meteorological conditions. Residential AER data collected in the Detroit Exposure and Aerosol Research Study (DEARS) and the Relationships of Indoor, Outdoor and Personal Air (RIOPA) study were analyzed to determine whether the influence of a number of housing and meteorological conditions on AER were consistent across four cities in different regions of the United States (Detroit MI, Elizabeth NJ, Houston TX, Los Angeles, CA). Influential factors were identified and used as binning variables for deriving final AER distributions for the use in exposure modeling. In addition, both between-home and within-home variance in AER in DEARS were quantified with the goal of identifying reasonable AER resampling frequencies for use in longitudinal exposure modeling efforts. The results of this analysis indicate that residential AER is depended on ambient temperature, the presence (or not) of central air conditioning, and the age of the home. Furthermore, between-home variability in AER accounted for the majority (67%) of the total variance in AER for Detroit homes, indicating lower within-home variability. These findings are compared with other previously published AER distributions, and the implications for exposure modeling are discussed.

Influence of human activity patterns, particle composition, and residential air exchange rates on modeled distributions of PM2.5 exposure compared with central-site monitoring data.

Central-site monitors do not account for factors such as outdoor-to-indoor transport and human activity patterns that influence personal exposures to ambient fine-particulate matter (PM(2.5)). We describe and compare different ambient PM(2.5) exposure estimation approaches that incorporate human activity patterns and time-resolved location-specific particle penetration and persistence indoors. Four approaches were used to estimate exposures to ambient PM(2.5) for application to the New Jersey Triggering of Myocardial Infarction Study. These include: Tier 1, central-site PM(2.5) mass; Tier 2A, the Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS) model using literature-based air exchange rates (AERs); Tier 2B, the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) Aerosol Penetration and Persistence (APP) and Infiltration models; and Tier 3, the SHEDS model where AERs were estimated using the LBNL Infiltration model. Mean exposure estimates from Tier 2A, 2B, and 3 exposure modeling approaches were lower than Tier 1 central-site PM(2.5) mass. Tier 2A estimates differed by season but not across the seven monitoring areas. Tier 2B and 3 geographical patterns appeared to be driven by AERs, while seasonal patterns appeared to be due to variations in PM composition and time activity patterns. These model results demonstrate heterogeneity in exposures that are not captured by the central-site monitor.

The Near-Road Exposures and Effects of Urban Air Pollutants Study (NEXUS): study design and methods.

The Near-Road Exposures and Effects of Urban Air Pollutants Study (NEXUS) was designed to examine the relationship between near-roadway exposures to air pollutants and respiratory outcomes in a cohort of asthmatic children who live close to major roadways in Detroit, Michigan USA. From September 2010 to December 2012 a total of 139 children with asthma, ages 6-14, were enrolled in the study on the basis of the proximity of their home to major roadways that carried different amounts of diesel traffic. The goal of the study was to investigate the effects of traffic-associated exposures on adverse respiratory outcomes, biomolecular markers of inflammatory and oxidative stress, and how these exposures affect the frequency and severity of respiratory viral infections in a cohort of children with asthma. An integrated measurement and modeling approach was used to quantitatively estimate the contribution of traffic sources to near-roadway air pollution and evaluate predictive models for assessing the impact of near-roadway pollution on children's exposures. Two intensive field campaigns were conducted in Fall 2010 and Spring 2011 to measure a suite of air pollutants including PM2.5 mass and composition, oxides of nitrogen (NO and NO2), carbon monoxide, and black carbon indoors and outdoors of 25 participants' homes, at two area schools, and along a spatial transect adjacent to I-96, a major highway in Detroit. These data were used to evaluate and refine models to estimate air quality and exposures for each child on a daily basis for the health analyses. The study design and methods are described, and selected measurement results from the Fall 2010 field intensive are presented to illustrate the design and successful implementation of the study. These data provide evidence of roadway impacts and exposure variability between study participants that will be further explored for associations with the health measures.

On the use of a PM(2.5) exposure simulator to explain birthweight.

In relating pollution to birth outcomes, maternal exposure has usually been described using monitoring data. Such characterization provides a misrepresentation of exposure as it (i) does not take into account the spatial misalignment between an individual's residence and monitoring sites, and (ii) it ignores the fact that individuals spend most of their time indoors and typically in more than one location. In this paper, we break with previous studies by using a stochastic simulator to describe personal exposure (to particulate matter) and then relate simulated exposures at the individual level to the health outcome (birthweight) rather than aggregating to a selected spatial unit.We propose a hierarchical model that, at the first stage, specifies a linear relationship between birthweight and personal exposure, adjusting for individual risk factors and introduces random spatial effects for the census tract of maternal residence. At the second stage, our hierarchical model specifies the distribution of each individual's personal exposure using the empirical distribution yielded by the stochastic simulator as well as a model for the spatial random effects.We have applied our framework to analyze birthweight data from 14 counties in North Carolina in years 2001 and 2002. We investigate whether there are certain aspects and time windows of exposure that are more detrimental to birthweight by building different exposure metrics which we incorporate, one by one, in our hierarchical model. To assess the difference in relating ambient exposure to birthweight versus personal exposure to birthweight, we compare estimates of the effect of air pollution obtained from hierarchical models that linearly relate ambient exposure and birthweight versus those obtained from our modeling framework.Our analysis does not show a significant effect of PM(2.5) on birthweight for reasons which we discuss. However, our modeling framework serves as a template for analyzing the relationship between personal exposure and longer term health endpoints.

Analyses of school commuting data for exposure modeling purposes.

Human exposure models often make the simplifying assumption that school children attend school in the same census tract where they live. This paper analyzes that assumption and provides information on the temporal and spatial distributions associated with school commuting. The data were obtained using Oak Ridge National Laboratory's LandScan USA population distribution model applied to Philadelphia, PA. It is a high-resolution model used to allocate individual school-aged children to both a home and school location, and to devise a minimum-time home-to-school commuting path (called a trace) between the two locations. LandScan relies heavily on Geographic Information System (GIS) data. With respect to school children attending school in their home census tract, the vast majority does not in Philadelphia. Our analyses found that: (1) about 32% of the students walk across two or more census tracts going to school and 40% of them walk across four or more census blocks; and (2) 60% drive across four or more census tracts going to school and 50% drive across 10 or more census blocks. We also find that: (3) using a 5-min commuting time interval - as opposed to the modeled "trace" - results in misclassifying the "actual" path taken in 90% of the census blocks, 70% of the block groups, and 50% of the tracts; (4) a 1-min time interval is needed to reasonably resolve time spent in the various census unit designations; and (5) approximately 50% of both the homes and schools of Philadelphia school children are located within 160 m of highly traveled roads, and 64% of the schools are located within 200 m. These findings are very important when modeling school children's exposures, especially, when ascertaining the impacts of near-roadway concentrations on their total daily body burden. As many school children also travel along these streets and roadways to get to school, a majority of children in Philadelphia are in mobile source-dominated locations most of the day. We hypothesize that exposures of school children in Philadelphia to benzene and particulate matter will be much higher than if home and school locations and commuting paths at a 1-min time resolution are not explicitly modeled in an exposure assessment. Undertaking such an assessment will be the topic of a future paper.

Analysis of coupled model uncertainties in source-to-dose modeling of human exposures to ambient air pollution: A PM(2.5) case study.

Quantitative assessment of human exposures and health effects due to air pollution involve detailed characterization of impacts of air quality on exposure and dose. A key challenge is to integrate these three components on a consistent spatial and temporal basis taking into account linkages and feedbacks. The current state-of-practice for such assessments is to exercise emission, meteorology, air quality, exposure, and dose models separately, and to link them together by using the output of one model as input to the subsequent downstream model. Quantification of variability and uncertainty has been an important topic in the exposure assessment community for a number of years. Variability refers to differences in the value of a quantity (e.g., exposure) over time, space, or among individuals. Uncertainty refers to lack of knowledge regarding the true value of a quantity. An emerging challenge is how to quantify variability and uncertainty in integrated assessments over the source-to-dose continuum by considering contributions from individual as well as linked components. For a case study of fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) in North Carolina during July 2002, we characterize variability and uncertainty associated with each of the individual concentration, exposure and dose models that are linked, and use a conceptual framework to quantify and evaluate the implications of coupled model uncertainties. We find that the resulting overall uncertainties due to combined effects of both variability and uncertainty are smaller (usually by a factor of 3-4) than the crudely multiplied model-specific overall uncertainty ratios. Future research will need to examine the impact of potential dependencies among the model components by conducting a truly coupled modeling analysis.