Moving forward through the in silico modeling of multiple sclerosis: Treatment layer implementation and validation.

Multiple sclerosis is an autoimmune inflammatory disease that affects the central nervous system through chronic demyelination and loss of oligodendrocytes. Since the relapsing-remitting form is the most prevalent, relapse-reducing therapies are a primary choice for specialists. Universal Immune System Simulator is an agent-based model that simulates the human immune system dynamics under physiological conditions and during several diseases, including multiple sclerosis. In this work, we extended the UISS-MS disease layer by adding two new treatments, i.e., cladribine and ocrelizumab, to show that UISS-MS can be potentially used to predict the effects of any existing or newly designed treatment against multiple sclerosis. To retrospectively validate UISS-MS with ocrelizumab and cladribine, we extracted the clinical and MRI data from patients included in two clinical trials, thus creating specific cohorts of digital patients for predicting and validating the effects of the considered drugs. The obtained results mirror those of the clinical trials, demonstrating that UISS-MS can correctly simulate the mechanisms of action and outcomes of the treatments. The successful retrospective validation concurred to confirm that UISS-MS can be considered a digital twin solution to be used as a support system to inform clinical decisions and predict disease course and therapeutic response at a single patient level.

Accelerating Digitalization in Healthcare with the InSilicoTrials Cloud-Based Platform: Four Use Cases.

The use of in silico trials is expected to play an increasingly important role in the development and regulatory evaluation of new medical products. Among the advantages that in silico approaches offer, is that they permit testing of drug candidates and new medical devices using virtual patients or computational emulations of preclinical experiments, allowing to refine, reduce or even replace time-consuming and costly benchtop/in vitro/ex vivo experiments as well as the involvement of animals and humans in in vivo studies. To facilitate and widen the adoption of in silico trials, InSilicoTrials Technologies has developed a cloud-based platform, hosting healthcare simulation tools for different bench, preclinical and clinical evaluations, and for diverse disease areas. This paper discusses four use cases of in silico trials performed using the InSilicoTrials.com platform. The first application illustrates how in silico approaches can improve the early preclinical assessment of drug-induced cardiotoxicity risks. The second use case is a virtual reproduction of a bench test for the safety assessment of transcatheter heart valve substitutes. The third and fourth use cases are examples of virtual patients generation to evaluate treatment effects in multiple sclerosis and prostate cancer patients, respectively.

In silico clinical trials for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis with MS TreatSim.

BACKGROUND: The last few decades have seen the approval of many new treatment options for Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS), as well as advances in diagnostic methodology and criteria. These developments have greatly improved the available treatment options for today's Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis patients. This increased availability of disease modifying treatments, however, has implications for clinical trial design in this therapeutic area. The availability of better diagnostics and more treatment options have not only contributed to progressively decreasing relapse rates in clinical trial populations but have also resulted in the evolution of control arms, as it is often no longer sufficient to show improvement from placebo. As a result, not only have clinical trials become longer and more expensive but comparing the results to those of "historical" trials has also become more difficult. METHODS: In order to aid design of clinical trials in RRMS, we have developed a simulator called MS TreatSim which can simulate the response of customizable, heterogeneous groups of patients to four common Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis treatment options. MS TreatSim combines a mechanistic, agent-based model of the immune-based etiology of RRMS with a simulation framework for the generation and virtual trial simulation of populations of digital patients. RESULTS: In this study, the product was first applied to generate diverse populations of digital patients. Then we applied it to reproduce a phase III trial of natalizumab as published 15 years ago as a use case. Within the limitations of synthetic data availability, the results showed the potential of applying MS TreatSim to recreate the relapse rates of this historical trial of natalizumab. CONCLUSIONS: MS TreatSim's synergistic combination of a mechanistic model with a clinical trial simulation framework is a tool that may advance model-based clinical trial design.

Scientific and regulatory evaluation of mechanistic in silico drug and disease models in drug development: Building model credibility.

The value of in silico methods in drug development and evaluation has been demonstrated repeatedly and convincingly. While their benefits are now unanimously recognized, international standards for their evaluation, accepted by all stakeholders involved, are still to be established. In this white paper, we propose a risk-informed evaluation framework for mechanistic model credibility evaluation. To properly frame the proposed verification and validation activities, concepts such as context of use, regulatory impact and risk-based analysis are discussed. To ensure common understanding between all stakeholders, an overview is provided of relevant in silico terminology used throughout this paper. To illustrate the feasibility of the proposed approach, we have applied it to three real case examples in the context of drug development, using a credibility matrix currently being tested as a quick-start tool by regulators. Altogether, this white paper provides a practical approach to model evaluation, applicable in both scientific and regulatory evaluation contexts.

Evaluation of the Population Pharmacokinetic Properties of Lidocaine and its Metabolites After Long-Term Multiple Applications of a Lidocaine Plaster in Post-Herpetic Neuralgia Patients.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Lidocaine 5% medicated plaster is the first lidocaine containing product for chronic use. As no previous investigations have been conducted to evaluate the population pharmacokinetics of long-term exposure to lidocaine 5% medicated plasters, further insights into the evaluation of the pharmacokinetic properties of lidocaine and its metabolites were needed for the assessment of its safety. METHODS: The population pharmacokinetic properties of lidocaine and its metabolites were evaluated after multiple applications of lidocaine 5% medicated plasters based on data collected for up to 14.5 months from two phase III clinical trials (up to 2.5 months in the first trial, and up to 12 months in a follow-up trial) in post-herpetic neuralgia patients. Modeling was performed using nonlinear mixed effects as implemented in NONMEM® (nonlinear mixed-effect modeling) v.5. A stepwise forward inclusion and backward elimination procedure were used for covariate model building. RESULTS: The model provides reliable estimates of the pharmacokinetic behavior of lidocaine after medicated plaster application. It was validated using simulations and showed adequate predictive properties. Apparent Clearance was estimated to be 48 L/h after application of two or fewer plasters, whereas its value increased to 67 L/h after application of three plasters. Model-based simulations predicted no accumulation of lidocaine or any of its metabolites after long-term exposure of three simultaneous plasters up to 1 year. The variability explained by adding covariates into the model for the long-term exposures of lidocaine following one plaster or three simultaneous plaster applications was found to be very small with respect to the overall between-subject variability. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, exposure to lidocaine after the application of the lidocaine medicated plaster was found to be primarily affected by the number of plasters simultaneously applied, i.e., it increased with the number of applied patches, but less than proportionally. No clinically relevant effect of other covariates was found to affect the exposure to lidocaine or its metabolites. As no accumulation was predicted by the model, long-term exposure to lidocaine and its metabolites is not expected to lead to any safety concerns in post-herpetic neuralgia patients.

Population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic modelling of the effects of axomadol and its O-demethyl metabolite on pupil diameter and nociception in healthy subjects.

AIM: The aim of the present study was to characterize the pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) properties of the active components of axomadol and to quantify their contribution to observed the pupillometric and analgesic (measured through the cold pressor test) effects linking the PD engagement biomarker with clinical response. METHODS: Healthy subjects (n = 74) received either placebo or axomadol orally at doses ranging from 66 mg to 225 mg following multiple dosing regimens in two separate clinical trials. Plasma concentrations of the two enantiomers of axomadol and their metabolites, and PD responses were measured at specific times. The population analysis was performed using NONMEM 7.2. RESULTS: The kinetics of the parent drug and its metabolite could be described simultaneously using an extra compartment mimicking the liver, where the metabolite is formed. The SS parent compound elicited a plasma concentration-dependent increase in pupil diameter, with estimates (percentage relative standard errors) of maximal effect (Emax ) and plasma concentration exerting a half-maximal effect (C50 ) of 0.79 (17.4) mm, and 90.7 (27) ng ml(-1) , respectively. The predicted effect site concentrations of the RR O-demethyl metabolite decreased the pupil diameter linearly, with an estimate of the slope of 0.00967 (18.7) mm·ml ng(-1) . An additive model, integrating the net effect on pupil diameter, described adequately the reduction in pain with a linear function. The PK/PD model revealed that each 0.5 mm change in pupil diameter is associated with a 10% decrease in cold pressor area under the concentration-time curve effects. CONCLUSIONS: The PK/PD analysis performed enabled the individual contributions of the active compounds to the observed effects to be identified and quantified. These effects were in accordance with the known mechanisms of action - namely, opioid agonism and noradrenaline reuptake inhibition.

Examination of Org 26576, an AMPA receptor positive allosteric modulator, in patients diagnosed with major depressive disorder: an exploratory, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

Org 26576 acts by modulating ionotropic AMPA-type glutamate receptors to enhance glutamatergic neurotransmission. The aim of this Phase 1b study (N=54) was to explore safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics, and pharmacodynamics of Org 26576 in depressed patients. Part I (N=24) evaluated the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) and optimal titration schedule in a multiple rising dose paradigm (range 100 mg BID to 600 mg BID); Part II (N=30) utilized a parallel groups design (100 mg BID, 400 mg BID, placebo) to examine all endpoints over a 28-day dosing period. Based on the number of moderate intensity adverse events reported at the 600 mg BID dose level, the MTD established in Part I was 450 mg BID. Symptomatic improvement as measured by the Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale was numerically greater in the Org 26576 groups than in the placebo group in both study parts. In Part II, the 400 mg BID dose was associated with improvements in executive functioning and speed of processing cognitive tests. Org 26576 was also associated with growth hormone increases and cortisol decreases at the end of treatment but did not influence prolactin or brain-derived neurotrophic factor. The quantitative electroencephalogram index Antidepressant Treatment Response at Week 1 was able to significantly predict symptomatic response at endpoint in the active treatment group, as was early improvement in social acuity. Overall, Org 26576 demonstrated good tolerability and pharmacokinetic properties in depressed patients, and pharmacodynamic endpoints suggested that it may show promise in future well-controlled, adequately powered proof of concept trials.

Maximum tolerated dose evaluation of the AMPA modulator Org 26576 in healthy volunteers and depressed patients: a summary and method analysis of bridging research in support of phase II dose selection.

BACKGROUND: A key challenge to dose selection in early central nervous system (CNS) clinical drug development is that patient tolerability profiles often differ from those of healthy volunteers (HVs), yet HVs are the modal population for determining doses to be investigated in phase II trials. Without clear tolerability data from the target patient population, first efficacy trials may include doses that are either too high or too low, creating undue risk for study participants and the development program overall. Bridging trials address this challenge by carefully investigating safety and tolerability in the target population prior to full-scale proof-of-concept trials. OBJECTIVE: Org 26576 is an alpha-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methylisoxazole-4-propionic acid (AMPA) receptor positive allosteric modulator that acts by modulating ionotropic AMPA-type glutamate receptors to enhance glutamatergic neurotransmission. In preparation for phase II efficacy trials in major depressive disorder (MDD), two separate phase I trials were conducted to evaluate safety, tolerability, and pharmacokinetics in HVs and in the target patient population. METHODS: Both trials were randomized and placebo controlled, and included multiple rising-dose cohorts (HV range 100-400 mg bid; MDD range 100-600 mg bid). HVs (n = 36) and patients with MDD (n = 54) were dosed under similarly controlled conditions in an inpatient facility, HVs for up to 14 days and MDD patients for up to 28 days. Safety, tolerability, and pharmacokinetics were assessed frequently. RESULTS: Despite comparable pharmacokinetic profiles, the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) in depressed patients was 450 mg bid, twice the MTD established in HVs. No clinically relevant safety issues associated with Org 26576 were noted. CONCLUSION: This article presents safety, tolerability, and pharmacokinetic data from two different populations examined under similar dosing conditions. The important implications of such bridging work in phase II dose selection are discussed, as are study design and data interpretation challenges.

Translational PK-PD modelling of molecular target modulation for the AMPA receptor positive allosteric modulator Org 26576.

INTRODUCTION: The α-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methylisoxazole-4-propionic acid (AMPA) receptor potentiator Org 26576 represents an interesting pharmacological tool to evaluate the utility of glutamatergic enhancement towards the treatment of psychiatric disorders. In this study, a rat-human translational pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) model of AMPA receptor modulation was used to predict human target engagement and inform dose selection in efficacy clinical trials. METHODS: Modelling and simulation was applied to rat plasma and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic measurements to identify a target concentration (EC(80)) for AMPA receptor modulation. Human plasma pharmacokinetics was determined from 33 healthy volunteers and eight major depressive disorder patients. From four out of these eight patients, CSF PK was also determined. Simulations of human CSF levels were performed for several doses of Org 26576. RESULTS: Org 26576 (0.1-10 mg/kg, i.v.) potentiated rat hippocampal AMPA receptor responses in an exposure-dependant manner. The rat plasma and CSF PK data were fitted by one-compartment model each. The rat CSF PK-PD model yielded an EC(80) value of 593 ng/ml (90% confidence interval 406.8, 1,264.1). The human plasma and CSF PK data were simultaneously well described by a two-compartment model. Simulations showed that in humans at 100 mg QD, CSF levels of Org 26576 would exceed the EC(80) target concentration for about 2 h and that 400 mg BID would engage AMPA receptors for 24 h. CONCLUSION: The modelling approach provided useful insight on the likely human dose-molecular target engagement relationship for Org 26576. Based on the current analysis, 100 and 400 mg BID would be suitable to provide 'phasic' and 'continuous' AMPA receptor engagement, respectively.

Design, synthesis and structure-activity relationships of (indo-3-yl) heterocyclic derivatives as agonists of the CB1 receptor. Discovery of a clinical candidate.

We report an expansion of the structure-activity relationship (SAR) of a novel series of indole-3-heterocyclic CB1 receptor agonists. Starting from the potent but poorly soluble lead, 1, a rational approach was taken in order to balance solubility, hERG activity and potency while retaining the desired long duration of action within the mouse tail flick test. This led to the discovery of compound 38 which successfully progressed into clinical development.

Derivation and validation of toxicophores for mutagenicity prediction.

Mutagenicity is one of the numerous adverse properties of a compound that hampers its potential to become a marketable drug. Toxic properties can often be related to chemical structure, more specifically, to particular substructures, which are generally identified as toxicophores. A number of toxicophores have already been identified in the literature. This study aims at increasing the current degree of reliability and accuracy of mutagenicity predictions by identifying novel toxicophores from the application of new criteria for toxicophore rule derivation and validation to a considerably sized mutagenicity dataset. For this purpose, a dataset of 4337 molecular structures with corresponding Ames test data (2401 mutagens and 1936 nonmutagens) was constructed. An initial substructure-search of this dataset showed that most mutagens were detected by applying only eight general toxicophores. From these eight, more specific toxicophores were derived and approved by employing chemical and mechanistic knowledge in combination with statistical criteria. A final set of 29 toxicophores containing new substructures was assembled that could classify the mutagenicity of the investigated dataset with a total classification error of 18%. Furthermore, mutagenicity predictions of an independent validation set of 535 compounds were performed with an error percentage of 15%. Since these error percentages approach the average interlaboratory reproducibility error of Ames tests, which is 15%, it was concluded that these toxicophores can be applied to risk assessment processes and can guide the design of chemical libraries for hit and lead optimization.

The binding mode of progesterone to its receptor deduced from molecular dynamics simulations.

An unambiguous understanding of the binding mode of human progesterone to its receptor still eludes experimental search. According to the X-ray structure of the ligand-binding domain, only one (O3) of the two keto groups at the ligand ends (O3 and O20) should play a role. This result is in conflict with chemical intuition and the results of site-directed mutagenesis experiments. Herein, we report classical molecular dynamics simulations that reveal the dynamic nature of the binding in solution, elucidate the reasons why X-ray studies failed to determine the role of O20, and clarify the effects of the mutations. The predictive power of the force field is ensured by the consistent introduction of a first-principles representation of the ligand.

Structure-activity relationship study of human liver microsomes-catalyzed hydrolysis rate of ester prodrugs of MENT by comparative molecular field analysis (CoMFA).

A series of MENT esters (3-71) was designed, prepared and tested to study the structure-activity relationship (SAR) of the hydrolysis rate with human liver microsomes of these prodrugs. Compounds were obtained covering a wide range of metabolic stability. The results are useful for the proper selection of prodrugs for different pharmaceutical formulations to deliver the potent and prostate-sparing androgen MENT. The MENT esters can especially be administered for male hormone replacement therapy and male contraception. Comparative molecular field analysis (CoMFA) was applied to a dataset of 28 esters, for which ED50 values could be obtained. The CoMFA model where the electrostatic and H-bond molecular fields were combined turned out to be most predictive. Despite the limited size of the dataset, CoMFA can help to rationalize the SAR of the ester hydrolysis rate of ester prodrugs of MENT.

A three-dimensional quantitative structure-activity relationship study of heparin-binding epidermal growth factor shedding inhibitors using comparative molecular field analysis.

Despite the lack of structural information on the heparin-binding (HB) epidermal growth factor (EGF) shedding putative target enzyme, the design of potent HB-EGF shedding inhibitors has been attempted by means of comparative molecular field analysis (CoMFA), a well-established 3D-QSAR technique. Two different binding modes, obtained by docking a flexible representative into the MMP-3 and TACE target enzymes, were considered as alignment rules for an in-house data set of 50 HB-EGF shedding inhibitors. CoMFA models were derived with the standard steric, electrostatic, and Bohacek and McMartin's H-bond molecular fields. These fields were used individually or in combination. For both alignments, the H-bond field alone yielded the best statistical models. From the analysis of the CoMFA contours, ideas for testing the size of the S1' pocket and suggestions for the design of new inhibitors came forward, resulting in the synthesis and testing of four new inhibitors. Three of four compounds turned out to possess from good (IC(50) = 0.56 and 0.60 microM) to excellent (IC(50) = 0.13 microM) inhibitory activity. The hypothesis that, upon binding, the S1' pocket in the vicinity of the R(1) benzene ring must be narrow in size was confirmed by the weak activity (IC(50) = 1.1 microM) of the fourth compound. The experimental profile of these new inhibitors does suggest the MMP-3 alignment as the most plausible one for HB-EGF shedding inhibitors.